Gresham "Group 150" - April 2011

APRIL 2011

Gresham Group 150

April 2011
Darren Martin
Gresham Advisory Partners
dmartin@gresham.com.au
+61 8 9486 7077
+61 412 144 719

ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150
We are pleased to present the April edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding
oil and gas), by market capitalisation.
March provided a steady result for the Group 150 with the cumulative market value decreasing 0.3% to 603.8 billion from
$605.4 billion at the end of February. The entry point into the Group 150 also fell slightly to $123.9 million, down from $127.7
million for the previous month. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index increased 1.4% for the month, outperforming both the ASX
All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index which both increased 0.1%.
March was a subdued month for M&A, with only one public market takeover being announced but we did witness two recent
deals where the bidders walked away from announced schemes of arrangement. In the Mantra Resources situation, the scheme
is back on foot following a price renegotiation and the situation involving BC Iron is currently being considered by the Takeovers
Panel.
“Winners” for March (in terms of growth in market capitalisation) were: Alkane (+63.5%), Elemental (+58.6%), Straits (+46.6%),
Aspire (+45.3%) and Hunnu Coal (+40.4%). The recent tragic events in Japan heavily impacted the uranium companies, with all
members within the Group 150 recording heavy falls in their respective share prices.
Having attended Mines and Money - Hong Kong, which we expect will soon become the major mining conference in Asia, we
remain of the view that 2011 will see an increased level of activity, likely involving scrip exchange transactions. Conducting
another straw poll (similar to the one we completed at Indaba) amongst some of the 2,000 delegates, the favoured commodities
remain gold, iron ore, copper and anything in Mongolia!
The current commodity price environment provides challenges to management to identify and execute value accretive
transactions. In this edition, we review the current price against the past 10 years for a selection of commodities. Adjusting for
inflation, our study demonstrated that copper, silver and gold are currently trading at all time highs and at levels equivalent to
2-3 times the 10 year average. In the case of the silver and copper the current price is 6 to 6.5 times the 10 year low. The base
metal spectrum is fairing slightly better, with nickel, zinc and lead trading at levels around 50% of their 10 year high but still
around 1.5 times above the 10 year average.
These observations suggest unless there is a clear path to unlock latent value, it will take a brave management team to undertake
a cash based transaction, especially in gold, silver or copper and it is more likely any transaction will involve a scrip exchange.
An alternative view may be held by the commodity bulls or the global economies seeking to secure long term supply.
Gresham Advisory Partners Limited

Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory
Edition 13 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors.

1

Group 150
Top 150 asX LisTed resource companies - march
By Market Capitalisation
Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %

Mar Feb Company 31-Mar-11 28-Feb-11 Change Mar Feb Company 31-Mar-11 28-Feb-11 Change

1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $257,343.5 $255,564.9 0.7% 51 51 OceanaGold Corporation (ASX:OGC) $700.0 $694.5 0.8%

2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $165,297.9 $166,377.0 (0.6%) 52 50 Allied Gold Ltd. (ASX:ALD) $656.6 $698.3 (6.0%)

3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $30,462.3 $29,023.0 5.0% 53 56 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $641.7 $633.7 1.3%

4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $19,954.7 $20,670.1 (3.5%) 54 61 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $608.9 $527.7 15.4%

5 5 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $10,350.3 $10,260.3 0.9% 55 64 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $602.1 $515.4 16.8%

6 6 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $6,002.8 $5,807.6 3.4% 56 52 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $589.6 $663.9 (11.2%)

7 9 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $5,525.9 $4,408.2 25.4% 57 57 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $581.7 $616.7 (5.7%)

8 8 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $5,165.5 $5,246.4 (1.5%) 58 55 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $579.7 $638.6 (9.2%)

9 7 Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) $4,940.3 $5,455.2 (9.4%) 59 59 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $550.8 $546.4 0.8%

10 10 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,134.5 $4,026.6 2.7% 60 79 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) $536.0 $369.0 45.3%

11 12 Riversdale Mining Ltd. (ASX:RIV) $3,912.6 $3,668.8 6.6% 61 66 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $528.8 $491.5 7.6%

12 16 Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC) $3,803.3 $3,241.9 17.3% 62 65 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $514.0 $514.0 0.0%

13 15 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $3,496.2 $3,256.6 7.4% 63 96 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $512.5 $313.4 63.5%

14 13 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $3,473.9 $3,536.8 (1.8%) 64 63 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $497.9 $518.2 (3.9%)

15 14 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $3,303.5 $3,342.3 (1.2%) 65 68 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $470.0 $470.0 0.0%

16 17 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $3,042.5 $3,050.8 (0.3%) 66 74 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $463.8 $416.8 11.3%

17 11 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $2,807.5 $3,849.5 (27.1%) 67 72 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $459.9 $452.6 1.6%

18 18 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $2,497.1 $3,006.8 (17.0%) 68 69 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $455.5 $467.8 (2.6%)

19 19 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $2,327.0 $2,385.6 (2.5%) 69 67 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $449.6 $471.5 (4.6%)

20 21 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $2,154.3 $2,176.0 (1.0%) 70 85 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $448.2 $344.7 30.0%

21 23 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,930.7 $1,820.3 6.1% 71 71 Jabiru Metals Limited (ASX:JML) $442.6 $459.2 (3.6%)

22 20 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $1,794.2 $2,317.9 (22.6%) 72 82 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $441.2 $357.9 23.3%

23 25 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,544.9 $1,613.7 (4.3%) 73 62 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $435.8 $527.3 (17.4%)

24 22 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $1,516.4 $1,949.3 (22.2%) 74 75 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $435.5 $410.3 6.1%

25 26 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $1,390.2 $1,364.0 1.9% 75 58 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $433.7 $599.3 (27.6%)

26 28 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $1,317.6 $1,325.2 (0.6%) 76 92 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $416.1 $330.3 26.0%

27 30 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,309.6 $1,248.4 4.9% 77 108 Elemental Minerals Limited (ASX:ELM) $409.9 $258.5 58.6%

28 24 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,291.7 $1,759.9 (26.6%) 78 70 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $409.7 $464.3 (11.8%)

29 27 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $1,262.5 $1,342.6 (6.0%) 79 78 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $391.3 $379.0 3.2%

30 31 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,215.0 $1,186.3 2.4% 80 100 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $389.4 $292.6 33.1%

31 29 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $1,175.1 $1,268.1 (7.3%) 81 77 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $384.2 $395.2 (2.8%)

32 32 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $1,066.7 $1,103.1 (3.3%) 82 83 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $372.1 $357.8 4.0%

33 37 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $1,061.5 $1,047.4 1.3% 83 98 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $364.4 $304.7 19.6%

34 41 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $1,051.2 $942.7 11.5% 84 109 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $361.9 $257.7 40.4%

35 33 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $1,017.4 $1,079.7 (5.8%) 85 81 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $361.6 $359.2 0.7%

36 38 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $1,016.5 $1,039.8 (2.2%) 86 73 South Boulder Mines Ltd. (ASX:STB) $361.3 $436.4 (17.2%)

37 42 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $971.7 $905.8 7.3% 87 105 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $343.1 $274.4 25.0%

38 44 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $970.1 $883.0 9.9% 88 89 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $338.8 $338.6 0.1%

39 35 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $963.5 $1,051.9 (8.4%) 89 80 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $336.8 $364.1 (7.5%)

40 40 Independence Gold NL (ASX:IGO) $914.5 $947.8 (3.5%) 90 95 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $331.9 $319.4 3.9%

41 34 Mantra Resources Limited (ASX:MRU) $905.3 $1,056.9 (14.3%) 91 91 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $331.7 $331.4 0.1%

42 39 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $894.6 $982.3 (8.9%) 92 94 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $324.7 $321.9 0.9%

43 47 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $857.2 $796.4 7.6% 93 76 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $314.4 $407.5 (22.8%)

44 43 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $817.7 $892.1 (8.3%) 94 104 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $314.1 $274.9 14.3%

45 54 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $760.7 $640.9 18.7% 95 84 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $311.7 $354.5 (12.1%)

46 45 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $755.1 $852.5 (11.4%) 96 118 Carabella Resources Limited (ASX:CLR) $308.3 $231.6 33.1%

47 49 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $754.9 $730.6 3.3% 97 90 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $308.1 $338.0 (8.8%)

48 46 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $719.3 $808.7 (11.1%) 98 87 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $304.1 $339.4 (10.4%)

49 53 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $709.8 $657.7 7.9% 99 101 Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX) $302.3 $291.3 3.8%

50 48 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $702.9 $761.6 (7.7%) 100 93 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $289.9 $325.4 (10.9%)
Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas

2

APRIL 2011

Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) %

Mar Feb Company 31-Mar-11 28-Feb-11 Change Mar Feb Company 31-Mar-11 28-Feb-11 Change

101 97 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $278.5 $310.6 (10.3%) 126 107 Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) $176.0 $233.6 (24.7%)

102 88 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $275.8 $339.0 (18.6%) 127 Sus. NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $171.2 $251.8 (32.0%)

103 129 Straits Resources Limited (ASX:SRQ) $264.3 $180.3 46.6% 128 125 WPG Resources Ltd (ASX:WPG) $170.6 $194.4 (12.2%)

104 113 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $262.8 $245.5 7.0% 129 135 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $168.4 $165.7 1.6%

105 99 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $262.2 $300.2 (12.7%) 130 143 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) $168.1 $150.4 11.8%

106 111 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $261.4 $250.0 4.6% 131 127 Pluton Resources Limited (ASX:PLV) $163.5 $186.9 (12.5%)

107 86 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $253.7 $343.9 (26.2%) 132 133 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $161.5 $172.0 (6.1%)

108 123 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $251.9 $209.2 20.4% 133 139 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $160.9 $158.2 1.7%

109 114 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $240.1 $243.6 (1.4%) 134 131 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $159.7 $174.0 (8.2%)

110 102 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $232.1 $288.0 (19.4%) 135 142 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $155.8 $150.8 3.3%

111 110 Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA) $231.5 $255.1 (9.3%) 136 134 Papillon Resources Limited (ASX:PIR) $147.6 $165.9 (11.0%)

112 112 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $229.7 $247.9 (7.3%) 137 137 African Iron Limited (ASX:AKI) $144.0 $163.2 (11.8%)

113 117 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $226.2 $234.1 (3.4%) 138 136 Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL) $143.3 $164.5 (12.9%)

114 132 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $226.1 $173.2 30.5% 139 146 Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH) $141.5 $144.6 (2.1%)

115 126 Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) $219.4 $193.0 13.7% 140 141 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $139.9 $151.1 (7.4%)

116 116 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $217.5 $239.5 (9.2%) 141 145 Golden West Resources Limited (ASX:GWR) $139.3 $146.0 (4.6%)

117 119 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $211.8 $231.0 (8.3%) 142 175 YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC) $138.9 $107.2 29.6%

118 106 African Energy Resources Limited (ASX:AFR) $211.5 $269.2 (21.4%) 143 140 Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI) $136.2 $153.0 (11.0%)

119 124 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $204.4 $201.0 1.7% 144 147 Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX:CCU) $135.2 $142.5 (5.1%)

120 120 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $198.3 $224.2 (11.6%) 145 156 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $134.2 $125.6 6.8%

121 121 Continental Coal Limited (ASX:CCC) $192.1 $226.1 (15.0%) 146 159 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) $133.3 $123.7 7.8%

122 130 Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD) $185.9 $174.6 6.5% 147 138 Nyota Minerals Limited (ASX:NYO) $129.0 $160.1 (19.4%)

123 103 Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN) $185.7 $281.1 (33.9%) 148 191 Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH) $127.5 $96.5 32.1%

124 122 Blackgold Intern. Holdings Ltd (ASX:BGG) $184.5 $216.0 (14.6%) 149 172 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $123.9 $109.6 13.0%

125 144 Cerro Resources NL (ASX:CJO) $183.2 $147.7 24.0% 150 170 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) $123.9 $111.4 11.2%
Source: Capital IQ

new enTranTs - march eXiTs - march
127 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) Giralia Resources NL (ASX:GIR)
142 YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC) International Coal Holdings Limited (ASX:ICL)
145 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLV)
146 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM)
148 Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH) Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS)
149 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) Bannerman Resources Limited (ASX:BMN)
150 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE)
Based on market capitalisation as at 31 March vs 28 February

Group 150 Leaders and LaGGers - markeT capiTaLisaTion performance - march
Leaders

Laggers

* Included material placement, acquisition and/or option conversion during month

3

Group 150
Group 150 markeT capiTaLisaTion asX indeX performance - march

Group 150 secTor markeT capiTaLisaTion - march
Market Capitalisation (A$b)

merGer & acquisiTions - announced in march
Percent Premium - Premium -
Date Value Consideration
Target Acquirer Sought 1 Day Prior 1 Month Prior
Announced (A$m) Offered
(%) (%) (%)

14-Mar-2011 Auzex Resources Limited (ASX:AZX) GGG Resources plc (AIM:GGG) 81.5 92 50.3 34.2 Equity

Source: Capital IQ
Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m

4

APRIL 2011

commodiTy prices - currenT prices aT 10 year hiGhs
The current commodity price environment provides challenges to management to identify and execute value accretive
transactions. Below, we review the current price for a selection of commodities against the past 10 years.
Adjusting for inflation, our study demonstrated that copper, silver and gold are currently trading at all time highs and at levels
equivalent to 2-3 times the 10 year average. In the case of the silver and copper the current price is 6 to 6.5 times the 10 year
low.
Copper - 10 Year Prices(real vs nominal) High/Low and Current
US$5.00
US$4.47
US$4.50 US$4.47

US$4.00

US$3.50 Copper US$/lb - real % Current
Current US$4.47
Copper Price - US$/lb

US$3.00
10 Year High US$4.47 100%
US$2.50
10 Yearr Low US$0.77 582%
US$2.00
Real 12 Months Ago US$3.28 137%
US$1.50
Nominal
10 Year Average US$2.28 196%
US$1.00

US$0.50 US$0.77

US$0.00
Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Copper - High/Low/Current

Copper US$/lb - nom Copper US$/lb - real

Gold - 10 Year Prices (real vs nominal) High/Low and Current
US$1,500 US$1,433
US$1,411

US$1,000 Gold US$/oz - real % Current
Gold Price - US$/oz

Current US$1,410
Real 10 Year High USS$1,432 98%
10 Yearr Low US$324 435%
US$500
Nominal 12 Months Ago US$1,140 124%

US$324
10 Year Average US$690 204%

US$0
Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Gold - High/Low/Current

Gold US$/oz - nom Gold US$/oz - real

Silver - 10 Year Prices(real vs nominal) High/Low and Current
US$40

US$33.87
US$35
US$33.87

US$30
Silver US$/oz - real % Current
US$25
Silver Price - US$/oz

Current US$33.87
US$20 10 Year High US$33.87 100%

US$15 10 Yearr Low US$5.20 651%
US$10
Nominal 10 Year Average US$11.61 292%
US$5
US$5.20
US$0
Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Silver - High/Low/Current

Silver US$/oz - nom Silver US$/oz - real
Source: Bloomberg, Capital IQ

5

Group 150
commodiTy prices - currenT prices aT 10 year hiGhs
The base metal spectrum is fairing slightly better, with nickel, zinc and lead trading at levels around 50% of their 10 year high
but still around 1.5 times above the 10 year average.

Nickel - 10 Year Prices(real vs nominal) High/Low and Current
US$30.00

US$24.57
US$25.00

Nickel US$/lb - real % Current
US$20.00
Current US$13.08
Nickel Price - US$/lb

US$15.00
US$13.08 10 Yearr Low US$2.50 524%
Real
US$10.00 12 Months Ago US$9.49 138%
US$5.00

US$2.50
US$0.00
Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Nickel - High/Low/Current

Nickel US$/lb - nom Nickel US$/lb - real

Zinc - 10 Year Prices (real vs nominal) High/Low and Current
US$2.50
US$2.19

US$2.00

Zinc US$/lb - real % Current
Zinc Price - US$/lb

US$1.50
Current US$1.12
Real 10 Year High US$2.19 51%
US$1.12
US$1.00
Nominal
12 Months Ago US$1.00 112%
US$0.50
10 Year Average US$0.86 130%
US$0.41
US$0.00
Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Zinc - High/Low/Current

Zinc USC/lb - nom Zinc USC/lb - real

Lead - 10 Year Prices(real vs nominal) High/Low and Current
US$2.00
US$1.77
US$1.80

US$1.60
Lead US$/lb - real % Current
US$1.40
Current US$1.15
Lead Price - US$/lb

US$1.20
US$1.15
US$1.00
US$0.80
US$0.60
US$0.40

US$0.20
US$0.22
US$0.00
Feb 01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Lead - High/Low/Current

Lead US$/lb - nom Lead US$/lb - real
Source: Bloomberg, Capital IQ

6

APRIL 2011

Base meTaLs - secTor performance
Share Price Performance - March 2011

Copper Nickel Zinc
Share Price Performance

Share Price Performance - Since 31 December 2010

Share Price Performance - Since 30 June 2010

7

Group 150
coaL - secTor performance



8

APRIL 2011

diversified - secTor performance indusTriaL mineraLs - secTor performance






9

Group 150
GoLd - secTor performance



10

APRIL 2011

iron ore - secTor performance



11

Group 150
uranium - secTor performance



12

APRIL 2011

consensus commodiTy price forecasTs - March
Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ)
$2,500 $60
$2,000 $50 $37.68
$1,434 $1,444 $1,331 $1,231 $1,134 $40 $29.50
$1,500 $22.00
$30 $20.00 $19.44
$1,000
$20
$500 $10
$0 $0
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb)
$6.00 $4.60 $16.00
$4.28 $4.42 $11.84 $11.57 $11.00
$5.00 $3.87 $3.71 $9.75 $10.29
$12.00
$4.00
$3.00 $8.00
$2.00
$4.00
$1.00
$0.00 $0.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb)
$1.50 $2.00
$1.07 $1.09 $1.11 $1.11 $1.09
$1.50 $1.22 $1.16 $1.20 $1.12
$1.00 $1.07
$1.00
$0.50
$0.50

$0.00 $0.00
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb)
$20.00 $100
$17.50 $14.42 $13.62 $13.72
$60.00 $65.00 $63.25 $60.00
$15.00 $10.36 $75 $53.00
$12.50 $9.07
$10.00 $50
$7.50
$5.00 $25
$2.50
$0.00 $0
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl)
$1.50 $200
$1.25 $1.03 $0.99 $0.98
$0.85 $0.90 $150 $109.70 $110.00
$1.00 $107.23 $100.00
$92.50
$0.75 $100
$0.50
$50
$0.25
$0.00 $0
Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low

13

recenT resources TransacTions

Group 150
Mergers and Acquisitions
Mergers and Acquisitions
2010 2009

GRAM
2009 2009 2008 2008 2006

Advised BHP Advised BG Advised Guandong Advised Allied Gold Advised Kalahari Advised Gem Advised IAMGOLD
Billiton on its Group on its $1bn Rising on its $216m on its $54m Minerals on its Diamonds on its Corporation on its
$204m offer for takeover offer for cornerstone acquisition of $140m proposed $300m acquisition $265m acquisition
United Minerals Pure Energy investment in Pan Australian merger with of Kimberley of Gallery Gold.
Corporation. Resources Aust. Solomons Gold. Extract Resources. Diamonds.
Limited.

TakeoverDefence
Takeover Defence
2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2007

Advised Polaris Advised Indophil Advised Advised Energy Advised Brandrill Advised Summit Advised Tethyan on
Metals NL on on $545m Centaurus Metals on its $86m Limited on its Resources on its its $220m
$178m takeover recommended Resources on its proportional takeover $45m takeover A$1.2bn takeover competing takeover
offer by Mineral offer from Zijin $20m merger offer by China offer by Ausdrill by Paladin Energy. offer by Crosby and
Resources with Glengarry Guangdong Nuclear Limited. Antogafasta/Barrick.
Limited. Resources. Power Group.

Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets
Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets
2010 2010 2009 2008 2009/08 2008 2008

Advised BHP Introduced Advised BHP Advised Advised Iluka on its Advised Advised Iluka
Billiton on its Denham Capital to Billiton on the Bannerman $114m Murchison Metals Resources on its
US$116bn iron Trans Tasman disposal of the Resources on its institutional on its joint venture $54m Narama coal
ore production Resources resulting Yabulu Nickel financing with placement and with Mitsubishi. divestment to
joint venture with in NZ iron sands refinery. Resource Capital $353m accelerated Xstrata.
Rio Tinto. investment. Funds. right issue.

Gresham Advisory Partners Limited
A.B.N. 97 003 344 269

Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street, Level 10, 1 Collins Street, Level 3, 28 The Esplanade,
Sydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 Perth WA 6000
Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133 Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300 Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077
Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814 Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722 Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024

Website: www.gresham.com.au

Terms and Conditions
Information contained in this publication
The opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees
(collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation.
Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision.
To whom this information is provided
This publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. This publication is supplied on the condition that it is not passed on to any person who is a retail client within the meaning of section 761G of the
Corporations Act 2001.
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To the maximum extent permitted by law, Gresham Advisory Partners will not be liable in any way for any loss or damage suffered by you through use or reliance on this information. Gresham Advisory Partners’ liability for negligence, breach of contract or contravention of any law, which
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Copyright in this publication is owned by Gresham Advisory Partners. You may use the information in this publication for your own personal use, but you must not (without Gresham Advisory Partners’ consent) alter, reproduce or distribute any part of this publication, transmit it to any other
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These Terms and Conditions are governed by the law in force in the State of Victoria, and the parties irrevocably submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Victoria and courts of appeal from them for determining any disputes concerning the Terms and Conditions.
If the whole or any part of a provision of these Terms and Conditions are void, unenforceable or illegal in a jurisdiction it is severed for that jurisdiction. The remainder of the Terms and Conditions have full force and effect and the validity or enforceability of that provision in any other jurisdiction
is not affected. This clause has no effect if the severance alters the basic nature of the Terms and Conditions or is contrary to public policy.
If Gresham Advisory Partners do not act in relation to a breach by you of these Terms and Conditions, this does not waive Gresham Advisory Partners’ right to act with respect to subsequent or similar breaches.
14

Gresham "Group 150" - April 2011

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