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Dean Bubley presentation on In-Buillding Wireless Network Convergence & 5G

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Keynote presentation by Dean Bubley of Disruptive Analysis at the June 2019 In-Building Wireless Congress in Las Vegas.

Covers the challenges of new wireless use-cases, enterprise/private cellular networks, 5G, WiFi, IoT connectivity, Neutral Host network and new spectrum bands

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Dean Bubley presentation on In-Buillding Wireless Network Convergence & 5G

  1. 1. In-Building Network Convergence: Flexibility is key, in an Unpredictable World Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis In-Building Wireless Congress, Las Vegas, June 2019 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley
  2. 2. Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis ◼ Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991 ◼ Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy ◼ Cross-silo, contrarian, independent ◼ Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019 Network Tech, Policy & Business Models Communications Apps & Services Telecom-Futurism Industry Analyst Papers & Reports
  3. 3. Predicting “unknown” indoor wireless trends, c2006 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019
  4. 4. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019 June 2019 bpd bps Gbps 10m Non- critical Function- critical 90% 99% 99.9% Rural Unlicensed Spectrum 3D Coverage Bandwidth Kbps Importance Business- critical Safety- critical Range <1m Mbps And also: Latency / TSN Power source Socioeconomic Geopolitical Security model Mobility Integration Bi-directional Protocols Lobbying power 1km >10km 100m 4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite / TVWS / .11ah Wi-Fi 5, 6, 7, ay Biz Model CSP Private Amenity Community Decentralised Indoor Many dimensions for future wireless Shared Secondary Local Exclusive Licenses Sensed National Dynamic
  5. 5. The 5G era brings new use-cases, devices & places Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 AR & VR Service areas Automation & Robots Machine Vision & AI Life-Critical Systems Multi-Carrier Devices Voids & Stairwells Exterior & Metalwork
  6. 6. Enterprise & indoor use-cases: various requirements Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019 Public MNO indoor coverage (or offload) Use of DAS, small cells, WiFi for indoor coverage of MNO mobile broadband services Local / Guest IT LAN & Internet access Mostly Wi-Fi for accessing cloud/web/compute Local IoT (static) Various techs for sensors, other fixed IoT Mix of Wi-Fi, BT, LoRa, NBIoT etc Local IoT (mobile) Devices that move or need indoor/outdoor coverage Local OT (operational / critical / industrial) Very high reliability / low latency / deterministic Local voice / comms Walkie-talkies, 2-way radio etc Edge
  7. 7. 2019 – Enterprise / indoor networks today Wi-Fi Public 4G/5G Private 4G/5G Other MNO indoor coverage / offload (esp phones) Local IT/Internet LAN (laptops, phones etc) Fibre, ethernet Local IoT (static) BLE, Zigbee, ethernet Local IoT (moving) Niche wireless Local OT (industrial) Fibre, niche wireless Local voice radio P25, TETRA, DECT Sector-specific uses Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019 Ubiquitous Common Rare Very rare Market adoption today Current focus of indoor cellular / small-cells
  8. 8. “Knowns”: three major trends driving indoor cellular Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019 4G > 5G Small cells New (local) spectrum models Also: IoT importance Edge computing Wholesale regulation Public safety 2-way radio EoL Verticals’ needs WiFi limits (eg mobility) New applications & opportunities for indoor, private & enterprise wireless Mostly being deployed outdoors & by indoor neutral- host for MNOs 3.5GHz, mmWave, bad for outdoor-to- indoor coverage Allowing enterprises to build private networks, or new shared/neutral SPs
  9. 9. 5G: framing the expectations Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019April 2019 Enhanced Mobile Broadband Low- Latency IoT Massive M2M / IoT Enhanced Mobile Broadband Ultra low- latency IoT Fixed Access 2020 2018-9 2019-2X 2021-2X Verticals Early 5G Maturing 5G 6G Massive M2M / IoT Fake 5G NB-LTE or NB-NR? 4G Dominant 4G Primary 5G Islands 5G Primary 4G Fallback 5G Dominant
  10. 10. 5G brings changes in spectrum & adjacent technologies High / mmWave Bands 8, 24, 26, 28, 37, 39, 90+ GHz mostly TDD +Wi-Fi 60GHz Mid Bands (inc. C-Band) 2.1-2.6, 3.4-4.2, 5-6GHz (FDD + TDD) licensed, shared & unlicensed, + 6GHz Wi-Fi Low Bands 450MHz-1900MHz Enhancements Massive MIMO CBRS (4G+) Beamforming Multipoint Mobility AI in RAN Slicing Carrier Aggregation Edge / MEC CRAN / vRAN O-RAN / XRAN Open Source 5G Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019
  11. 11. New indoor/enterprise-centric spectrum models & bands Potentially relevant near-term ◼ US CBRS (class A & B) ◼ MulteFire / 5G-U (no devices yet)  5GHz, 2.4GHz, 1.9GHz (Japan) ◼ mmWave  Licensed, esp. 24 / 28 / 32 / 39 GHz  Unlicensed 60GHz (Wi-Fi & maybe 5G) ◼ 6GHz (probably unlicensed) ◼ Germany 3.7-3.8GHz (industrial) ◼ UK proposed local 50m radius licenses at 1.8GHz & 2.3GHz Macro / outdoor / longer term ◼ LTE-U / LAA ◼ Dutch 3.5GHz ◼ France 2.6GHz (TETRA replacement) ◼ Japan mmWave / China etc ◼ UK (& maybe US) 3.8-4.2GHz C-band ◼ Other countries may follow Germany ◼ Indoor-only licences (eg UK 26GHz) ◼ Unexpected / random bands eg 8GHz ◼ Future harmonisation / WRCs? ◼ 6G starting 2026 onwards Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019
  12. 12. Wi-Fi is here to stay… but faces some challenges Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019
  13. 13. Wi-Fi Competitiveness Scorecard vs. alternative networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019 ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal In-Home Office Public Industrial Outdoors & mobile Wi-Fi: whole home Wi-Fi: poor logonWi-Fi: easy logon Wi-Fi: single AP Wi-Fi: enterprise Wi-Fi: general Wi-Fi: safety critical Wi-Fi: limited 4G/5G flat-rate 4G flat-rate 4G metered 4G metered Fibre / Niche 4G private 4G MBB 4G NB-IoT Wired Ethernet Indoor 4G/5G Satellite ? Private 5G +TSN? 5G MBB
  14. 14. Options for IoT / enterprise / private networks Private Wi-Fi & LPWAN Enterprise- focused MVNO Enterprise own MVNO MNO custom network slice MNO 3rd party network slice SliceaaS Enterprise / vertical private core network 3rd-party Neutral Host mobile network Enterprise private mobile network Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019 Plus many hybrids & variations (eg spectrum / asset ownership, outsourcing) Voice / UC centric IoT centric Each enterprise model will have its own complexities & costs
  15. 15. Private cellular just at large sites? Or offices / MDUs too? ◼ Most enterprise private cellular use-cases today are for “non-carpeted” sites  Ports, airports, mines, oil & gas  Factories, hospitals, warehouses ◼ Mostly driven by IoT / OT requirements, or wide-area & mobility  Clear ROI from internal business functions (eg asset tracking, flexible manufacturing etc)  Usually part of a broader systems-integration project for automation robotics etc ◼ Still also expectation of Wi-Fi for normal guest IT / Internet access  Also indoor MNO coverage for smartphones etc ◼ Private cellular in offices / hotels / MDUs / retail still very early  Focus on Neutral Host offering MNO coverage-as-a-service first  Little history of historic DAS installations (often too small)  Limited skill to deploy / manage cellular networks (core, SIMs, etc)  Complex tenancy / landlord / property developer value chains Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019
  16. 16. Many “moving parts” to create private 4G/5G networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019October 2018 Shared & Unlicensed Spectrum IoT / MVNO / MVNE / Slicing platformsSmall Cells, WiFi,MEC, DAS, cabling eSIM & RSP Virtualised Core / Transport Network Cloud OSS / BSS Number ranges & MNCs Roaming & Inter- connect Devices & chipsets Voice, PTT, video, messaging Physical design, integrate & build
  17. 17. Unknowns around 5G in-building mean flexibility is essential Future knowns ◼ More devices & device types ◼ Gbps throughputs per device ◼ Multiple 5G bands & MIMO ◼ 2G-4G, WiFi4-6, BT, others ◼ Multi-carrier indoor requirements ◼ Lower e2e latency requirements ◼ More network stakeholders ◼ Vertical sector customisation Future unknowns & possibilities ◼ mmWave realities (eg line-of-sight) ◼ In-building QoS visibility & control ◼ Extent of private 5G deployment ◼ Adoption of C-RAN / O-RAN etc ◼ Spectrum licensing / sharing models ◼ Ethernet / mobile / Wi-Fi convergence ◼ Edge computing locations ◼ Wholesale / government networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019 …but deeper fibre deployment within buildings will be needed, whatever happens
  18. 18. Network convergence will occur in many stages / domains Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018 In- Bldg DAS Enter- prise LAN Biz / Guest Wi-Fi Indoor small cells Critical Comm & IoT 3G macro ntwk DAS LAN Wi-Fi 4G small cells Critical Comm & IoT 4G Macro DAS Opti- cal LAN WiFi 5G small cells Critical Comm & IoT 5G C- RAN LPWA, BT etc
  19. 19. Whose network? What technology? Which spectrum?
  20. 20. Tech innovations take telecoms in 2 opposing directions Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019June 2019 Centralise, Optimise Monetise Federate Regulate Proscriptive Democratise Hybridise Commoditise Decentralise Arbitrage Flexibility Network access Voice calls & messages Devices & OSs Music & video content Social networking AI & Analytics Banking / payments Identity Cloud & edge IoT & verticals
  21. 21. www.deanbubley.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean https://www.linkedin.com/in/deanbubley/ https://soundcloud.com/user-521594836 information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017June 2019

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