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Disruptive Analysis - Telecoms Futurism

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Keynote presentation on telcofuturism - the specific analysis of future trends applied to the telecom sector, such as blockchain, maachine-learning, drones & contextual/cognitive computing

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Disruptive Analysis - Telecoms Futurism

  1. 1. TelcoFuturism…. … and why it matters to all service providers Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Metaswitch Forum, May 2016 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
  2. 2. About Disruptive Analysis  Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting  Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecasting  Cross-silo, contrarian, independent  Provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.  Focus: Voice/video, WebRTC, 4G/5G, Telco biz models & regs  Everything from videoconferencing to silicon to regulation to IoT to NFV  Not a deep technical specialist or developer  Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors  Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
  3. 3. Communications is more than just “calls” & conferences Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
  4. 4. The Future is getting closer, faster Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 Predicted 1916 Discovered 2016 DARPA Challenge 2004 Mainstream 2017/18 Released 2009 Mainstream 2014 Invented 2012 Mainstream 2015 Image: Nicolas Halftermeyer Released 2010 Mainstream 2014 Not just mainstream – but spinoffs & variations proliferating CRISPR
  5. 5. Futurism isn’t just for the crazy guys in the labs any more Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 Past: 10-20yrs Scenario Planning Now: 3-5yrs Foresight Soon: 1-2yrs Aware “Sci-Fi” Lab Concept Business Reality
  6. 6. The Future has broad drivers, beyond networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 Chapter by Dean Bubley: “The Future of the Phone Call” Other Chapters cover: AI & machine-learning Analytics & Big Data Contextual computing Crowds & the Sharing Economy Wearables & quantified-self 3D-printing IoT, Robots & drones Autonomous vehicles Longevity & human enhancement Green Tech Financial systems & money Political & social change
  7. 7. Opportunity & value arises at tech intersections Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 Analytics& Machinelearning Wearables& futurewellbeing IoT&sensors FinTech& Blockchain Urbanisation &smartcities Biomedicaltech &humanenhancement Voice/Video Comms, Collaboration, Context & WebRTC Future Networks: 5G, WiFi, LPWAN, SDN/NFV etc
  8. 8. Smartphones + Crowdsourcing + Developer Platforms Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 Innovation mainly needs imagination & motivation. Not money.
  9. 9. Most telcos & telco execs don’t understand the future Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
  10. 10. … and most futurists don’t understand telecoms Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 “Telcos & banks will all merge” “Everything will be mobile” “Wireless power will be beamed from cell towers”
  11. 11. Focus on purpose & context Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
  12. 12. Avoid strategic over-reach: platforms are expensive Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015May 2016 Source: RGBstock.com
  13. 13. Think about orthogonal trends in society & business Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015May 2016
  14. 14. Intersections are bi-directional Drones using telecoms  5G connectivity for control  Streaming video  Identity / security  Industrial verticals  Entertainment & consumer  Precision-agriculture svcs  Public safety applications Telecoms using drones  Site inspection/maintenance  Coverage testing/mapping  Delivery B2B / B2C  Temporary network capacity Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
  15. 15. Telecoms meets AI & machine-learning Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 Pricing models Energy Management Fraud Detection Churn Reduction Quasi-QoS Path Optimisation Multiple variables Capacity Planning
  16. 16. Analytics/Learning – Voice search & emotional analysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
  17. 17. Empathy-as-a-service Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 … also see IBM Watson APIs
  18. 18. Blockchain  Mesh networks  Microbilling  IoT identity  Internal security for SDN  Alternative routing paths  Roaming agreements  Early movers:  Verizon/Filament  Orange Chainforce Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
  19. 19. Sources of value in communications Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 Before a call / session Signal / check availability Signal purpose Timing Setup & configuration Rendezvous Device Identity During a call / session Quality & acoustics Handoff Translation Realtime analysis Relevant data Multi-party UI / control Interop After a call / session Record & tag Next actions Ratings Post-call analytics Ephemerality OUTCOMES Reason for a call / session Triggers Scheduling Forms Choice / negotiation of channel Context Social Workflow Ongoing: Conversations, narratives, reputation, identity …. this is just a starting point
  20. 20. Enterprise voice & UC trends evolving fast Context Conversations Convenience: Today’s UC Calls: Historic & Functional • App-embedded comms • Purpose-driven comms • Analytics & IoT integration • Multi-channel • Workstream/ social • Persistent collaboration • Cloud & hybrid delivery • UCaaS • Mobile, BYOD • Basic telephony & IM • Simple conferencing • Desktop video Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016
  21. 21. Engaging with the future…. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016 Cross-Organisation Involvement Partners & Vendors Competitions, Incubators & Hackathons
  22. 22. www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis appear.in/disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

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