The Games Industry Analytics Forum returned for its 10th meet-up on Thursday 27th August at Product Madness in London.
GIAF is a free event for game analytics practitioners held in both the USA and UK, organised by game analytics & marketing company deltaDNA.
Featuring ever-changing presentations, venues and expert panel discussions, it's a unique opportunity for practitioners looking to generate insight and value from big data game analytics; one of the most important trends in games.
UK GIAF: Summer 2015 Featured:
Peter Warman, CEO and Co-founder at Newzoo
What to do with data from 1 billion smart devices in China?
Volodymyr (Vlad) Kazantsev, Head of Data Science at Product Madness
From Data Science to Data Impact: On many ways to segment your players & more
Heather Stark, Analyst at Kinran Limited
Trends in game analytics: What’s happening (and why)
Interested in speaking at a future event or in finding our more? Visit www.deltadna.com/GIAF
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UK GIAF: Summer 2015
1.
2. UPCOMING TALKS
What to do with data from 1 billion smart devices in China?
Peter Warman - CEO & Co-founder, Newzoo
From Data Science to Data Impact: On many ways to segment your
players & more
Volodymyr (Vlad) Kazantsev - Head of Data Science, Product Madness
Trends in game analytics: What’s happening (and why)?
Heather Stark - Analyst, Kirnan Limited
37. 37
Heart of Vegas in (public) Numbers
iPad US - #13 top grossing
iPhone US - #32 top grossing
Android - #44 top grossing
US (games) Australia
iPad - #1 top grossing
iPhone - #1 top grossing
Android -#3 top grossing
jobs@productmadness.com volodymyrk
38. 38
Data Impact Team
Ad-hoc analytics;
dashboards
Deep dive analysis;
Predictive analytics
ETL, R&D
jobs@productmadness.com volodymyrk
39. 39
Data Impact Team
7 people; 4 in London office
jobs@productmadness.com volodymyrk
Ad-hoc analytics;
dashboards
Deep dive analysis;
Predictive analytics
ETL, R&D
44. 44
Successful segmentation is the product of a detailed
understanding of your market and will therefore take time
- Market Segmentation: How to Do it and Profit from it, 4th edition: Malcolm McDonald
45. 45
Basics
Customers have different needs and means
Segmentation can help to understand those differences
Which can help to deliver on those needs
And drive higher profitability
46. 46
What is a Player Segment?
A segment is a group of customers who display similarities to
each other...
Customers move in and out of segments over time
47. 47
How many segments are there?
There is no one right way to segment (not should there be):
Many different approaches and techniques
Mix of art, science, common sense, experience and practical knowledge
Depends on business needs and availability of data
Don’t aim to build one holistic model to meet all needs
49. 49
Strategic
Management
Product
Development
Marketing
Operations
Comments
Geography
/Demographics
✭✭ ✭✭ ✭✭
Separates players by country, city, city-district,
distance from land-based casinos.
By generational profile: boomers, Gen-Y, Gen-X.
Loyalty / Length of
Relationship
✭✭✭ ✭ ✭✭✭
New players, on-boarding, engaged, lapsed, re-
engaged, cross-promoted.
Behavioural ✭ ✭✭✭ ✭✭✭
Based on identifying player’s behaviour characteristics
that help to understand why customer behave the way
they do
Needs-based ✭ ✭✭✭ ✭
Divide customers based on needs which are being
fulfilled by playing Online Slots
Value Based ✭✭✭ ✭ ✭✭
Based on present and future value of the customer
(RFM/CLV)
51. 51
Segmentation = building a taxonomy
All Players
New
(<28 days)
Established
(>28d)
Payer Non Payer0-2 days 3-7d 8-27
<30 spins >30 … High V Med V Low V Engaged Casual…
VIP Concierge
52. 52
..and simplifying it daily use
All Players
New
(<28 days)
Established
(>28d)
Payer Non Payer0-2 days 3-7d 8-27
<30 spins >30 … High V Med V Low V Casual…
New
High
Value
Med Value Low Value Engaged Casual
Engaged
61. 61
Pillars of Successful Segmentation Project
Business knowledge
Data knowledge
Analytical skills
People
Process
Technology
ETL
Machine Learning
Business Intelligence
Product Integration
Marketing
Product
Data Services
62. 62
Top-down approach to segmentation
1. Define objectives and therefore customer characteristics
a. dd
2. Choice method to split users
a. d
3. Prioritise segments to target
a. d
4. Operationalise segmentation
a. s
5. ‘land’ the segmentation within the organization
63. 63
Bottom-up approach
360o player
view
Segmentation
Player
transitions
Tailored
interventions
Prioritisation
and testing
● Build database to provide 360o view of the customer
● Demographic, behavioural, payments, etc.
● Add predictive attributes, such as conversion probability, churn risk, LTV, etc.
● Segment customers by desired attributes: more than one approach
● Use robust statistical techniques for clustering or validation of empirical segmentation
● Ensure segmentation is intuitive for the business and can be used across business functions
● Identify how players are moving from one segment to another (segment transition matrix)
● Determine value levers and identify potential improvement ideas
● Create tailored interventions (CRM, push ..), aimed at moving customers to more valuable segments
● Build predictive models to detect best offer and prevent undesirable transitions
● Prioritise interventions based on expected LTV uplift and ease of implementation
● Test interventions through experimentation
64. 64
How to actually do segmentation?
Just Look at Data Clustering Decision Trees
Player Attributes
de-correlate
Normalise Scale
79. 79
Behavioural Segmentation
Average Bet
Gifts per Day
Bonuses per Day
Machine Stickiness
Days Played
Spins per Day
Preference for New Machines
%% of spin on High-Roller machines
Big Win Stickiness
etc.
Hierarchical
Clustering
92. Kinran
@HAStark
...[according to VB research] most mobile-
first companies are trying to pay between
$1 and $1.50 for users, but they are only
getting quality users at multiples of those
numbers...
August 12 2015
http://venturebeat.com/2015/08/12/this-service-tells-you-what-supercell-machine-zone-and-other-big-
publishers-spend-on-user-acquisition/
93. Kinran
@HAStark
...[according to AppScotch] Machine Zone
is currently spending somewhere around
$12 per user with AdColony, InMobi, and
Unity Ads, up to $20 per user with Vungle,
and between $2 and $30 per user with
Chartboost...
August 12 2015
http://venturebeat.com/2015/08/12/this-service-tells-you-what-supercell-machine-zone-and-other-big-
publishers-spend-on-user-acquisition/
99. Kinran
@HAStark
Kevin Schmidt and Luis Vicente, Mind Candy
Practical real-time approximations using Spark
Streaming
hyperloglogs to count uniques
bloom filters to count revenue
stream-summary for top-k
(metwally agrawal abbadi 2005)
from nucl.ai Data Science track (to be published)
earlier version from huguk available now
http://www.slideshare.net/huguk/fast-perfect-practical-realtime-approximations-using-spark-streaming
105. Kinran
@HAStark
Miloš Milošević, Nordeus
Early Churn Prediction and Personalised Interventions In Top 11
later detection is more accurate - but less useful
tried many techniques – logistic regression good!
cluster users based on first day gameplay
customise messaging based on clusters
increased D1 retention (and downstream metrics)
from nucl.ai 2015 Data Science track (to be published)
writeup available on gamasutra now:
http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/MilosMilosevic/20150811/250913/How_data_scientists_slashed_early_churn_in_Top_Eleven.
php
108. Kinran
@HAStark
Meta S. Brown
Analytics failure and how to avoid it
Analytics programs fail...
.... because they lack a viable plan for success
Imperial College Data Science Institute 24 June 2015
http://www.slideshare.net/metabrown/analytics-failure-how-to-avoid-it
109. Kinran
@HAStark
Meta S. Brown
Analytics failure and how to avoid it
Analytics programs fail...
.... because they lack a viable plan for success
Define success, and who decides on it
Imperial College Data Science Institute 24 June 2015
http://www.slideshare.net/metabrown/analytics-failure-how-to-avoid-it
110. Kinran
@HAStark
Meta S. Brown
Analytics failure and how to avoid it
Start with a business problem
a small one
understand the business problem really well
As you scale up – pay attention to process
replicable! replicable! replicable!
Imperial College Data Science Institute 24 June 2015
http://www.slideshare.net/metabrown/analytics-failure-how-to-avoid-it
111. Kinran
@HAStark
Meta S. Brown
Analytics failure and how to avoid it
Use only as much data as you need to
The best use case for Big is personalisation
Imperial College Data Science Institute 24 June 2015
http://www.slideshare.net/metabrown/analytics-failure-how-to-avoid-it
113. JOIN IN THE CONVERSATION PARTICIPATE IN THE NEXT GIAF
Analytics for Games
www.deltadna.com/giaf
events@deltadna.com
#UKGIAF
Editor's Notes
\/ \/ \/ \/ \/ \/ \/
US (games)
iPad US - #13 top grossing
iPhone US - #32 top grossing
Android - #44 top grossing
Australia
Who cares about Australia. We do
iPad - #1 top grossing
iPhone - #1 top grossing
Android -#3 top grossing
Overall, not only games
Ad-hoc analytics, daily fires, dashboards, Insights
Deep dive analysis - reports that take few weeks to complete;
Predictive analytics, Machine learning, statistical modelling
Data Pipeline, platform for machine learning and modelling
Insights
Data Science
Data Engineering
7 people; 4 in London office
We Are Hiring !
jobs@productmadness.com
Events are generated on server-side. This way we control data quality.
We are processing 350 Million events per day
They got ingested into Amazon Cloud to S3, with the help of Python and Spark.
And then got copied to Amazon Redshift - Columnar parallel database.
Currently we have 12 nodes, with total capacity of 24TB
Once the data is in there - we do all heavy aggregations and transformations.
We have moved from Hadoop more than a year ago and haven’t looked back since.
We perform most of interactive analysis in Python Notebooks.
For trivial things we are using re.dash, which is similar to Mode and Periscope.
It is Web-based SQL client with integrated plotting and collaboration functionality.
You can even create dashboards with re.dash, but for production dashboards we prefer to use Tableau or our own D3.js-based application.
All our web applications are using Python backend, Flask framework. We use scikit-learn for machine learning and predictive analytics.
As you have probably guessed, we like Python.
What we do:
AB tests
bread and butter of data science teams
yet controversial
and often misunderstood
Customer Lifetime Value modelling
knowing how much your customer worth, shortly after you acquite them is a holy-grail of User Acqusition
can easily spend next 40 minutes talking about customer lifetime value modelling, but ..
So - segmentation
In this presentation I will not be taking in details about classification algorithm, dimensionality reduction or machine learning.
Instead, we will be looking at segmentation from Product Marketing perspective.
Successful segmentation is the product of a detailed understanding of your market and will therefore take time
Segmentation is not a two-weeks task you assign to your analytics department
Customers have different needs and means.
Some players play for fun, others got a kick from competition.
We all know that players have very different willingness to pay.
Most of you know how rare it is to find a Normal Distribution among our players - our games are played by outliers. If you remove outliers from any analysis - you will probably miss the point of it.
Segmentation can help to understand those differences
Which can help to deliver on those needs
And drive higher profitability
A segment is a group of customers who display similarities to each other...
They may react similarly in a product/service offering
They may provide comparable values (profitability) to the company
They may bear the same needs or behave in alike ways
Customers move in and out of segments over time
There is no one right way to segment (not should there be):
Many different approaches and techniques. I will cover few techniques in the following slides.
Mix of art, science, common sense, experience and practical knowledge
You need to take business needs into account, but also what data is available and can be used, operationally.
Don’t aim to build one holistic taxonomy to meet all needs,
So what are different types of segmentation?
How do you approach a problem like this?
Multiple way to segment users
And there are different use cases for segmentation.
You can segment on: geography and basic demographics.
In our case - Australian players are very important, and usually behave quite differently from the rest of the world.
You can segment based on stage in a player’s Lifecycle - new players behave differently to someone who have been playing your game for the last two years. Also, knowing users who are showing signs of disengagement is very important.
You can also segment on Behaviour, Needs (if you can identify them, possibly based on observed behaviour) and, of course, based on Player Value.
But different parts of the business are interested in different segmentations.
Product Managers and Marketing teams might be very interested in Behavioural Segments. But CEO may be more interested to track retention metric for your most valuable players (whales).
The actual segmentation might be hybrid.
This is the segmentation of the Land-based Slot players.
First layer - by frequency of play, e.g. engagement
Second layers - bahavioural
But of course, it is important to understand why segmentation is useful for a business.
What decisions can it help to make?
And how it can affect daily operations and possibly product?
Clients of Segmentation
Strategy and Finance
Product development
Marketing operations
Strategy and Finance
When we looked at data after launch, amount of coints spent has actually dropped on the day of the launch!
But was it even a real drop?
But for a specific segment, that day was very positive.
Business knowledge:
- high-level segments goals
- product/marketing strategy
Data knowledge:
- how to access 360 view?
- what are segments definitions?
Stats/Analytical skills
- how to profile various segments?
ETL
- recalculated daily or real-time
- regular reviews
Integration with back-office and game
- segmentation engine + ETL
Dashboards
Reporting
Marketing:
- day-2-day campaigns for segments
- reporting (monthly and daily)
Product
- review feature success for segment
Analytics and data engineering
- ongoing support and refinement
What are business objectives and therefore customer characteristics we should use to profile the market?
What approach should we take to ensure segments accurately represent the market and actionable?
What criteria should we use to prioritise segments and select targets?
How can we ensure segmentation is operational and can be deployed?
How to do ‘land’ the segmentation within the organization and ensure it gains traction?
K-means
Hierarchical Clustering
Decision Trees
.. and many more
I’m going to take a look at what’s going on in game analytics. And why.
I’m going to look at four aspects – what’s going on in the market we serve – in the games industry itself – and how that’s shaping what gets done in analytics.
And I’m going to look at changes in the tools and tech we have at our disposal, to do the work we do.
I’m going to look at frontier zones – areas what gets done is evolving. Liminal zones where the ocean and fog meet.
Finally, I’m going to look at failure prevention in games analytics. (I didn’t want to leave you sad by titling it failure.) This is a glass half full take on things.
I’ve only picked out a few things under each heading, and there might be more that you think of. Tell me in question time, or afterwards in the bar.
You’re probably wondering. How does she know all this stuff? Has she wired my studio up for telemetry? Or is she making it all up?
Well it’s neither. I do what you do – talk to people, read trade press, listen in on social media, look at changes in vendors’ service offerings, go to events, and use this info as tell-tales to see which way the wind is blowing.
Last month I curated and chaired the Data Science and Analytics track at the games AI conference in Vienna, and I’m bringing back a few shiny snippets from that to share with you. Apparently crows don’t actually like shiny things, which I found out after researching this cool picture, but I do.
It makes sense that what gets done in games analytics would be influenced by what’s going on in the games industry itself. So what’s going on in games? It depends a lot on what facet of the market you live in.
The market as a whole is still growing. Could be worse.
But there are two trends that make life difficult. They have to do with distribution – both on mobile appstores and on steam. One trend is the increasing number of games on the market. The other is the stickiness of the top 10 lists.
Visibility in the face of competition, both long-tail and top 10, is a huge challenge.
Best sellers tend to hang about like low cloud over England in summer. This isn’t by accident. It’s to do with store managers wanting to optimise their returns, and giving successful titles visibility via multiple internal channels. Also also, on mobile appstores, it’s about sophisticated use of the advertising ecosystem by top sellers.
Also - the game needs to be good. But that isn’t enough.
What’s happening as a result? It’s making people pay even more serious attention to distribution and visibility. Some are choosing to go with publishers rather than self-publish.
Ouch.
Really. Ouch. It’s bleeping expensive. This isn’t the kind of spend to do casually.
This means having a good grip on your i/o for acquisition. This can get complicated. But the key point is that different players come in from different sources, which have different costs. You need to balance that view of your costs, with predictions about likely revenue. These predictions will become more accurate the longer a run of real data you have, but by that time your media buying window may have closed.
Since it’s so nailbitingly pricey to acquire players, there is an increasing focus on understanding how to keep them. This has always been of interest. But the truism that usually cheaper to retain a customer than to get a new one is being taken more seriously, now that competition for attention is fiercer than ever.
The areas that service providers are focussing on is often directional. App Annie has recently begun to offer competitor intelligence on how players interact with other games. After offering to integrating player metrics with their store performance data, for free.
There’s lots to say about tech enablers. I’m only going to give a light kick to two aspects of it here – but ask me other things in the question time, or afterwards.
One thing I’m seeing is the need for speed, for taking certain decisions. And with that an interest in streaming architectures and algorithms, particularly Spark streaming. There’s a good piece of work from nucl.ai on this, from one of our London games firms.
I’d like to give a shout out to some open sourced work by Mind Candy, on using probabilistic data structures for stream-based metrics. This is very like the material covered in Ilya Katsov’s ‘Highly scalable’ blog, but it includes links to the source code. Most of these approaches use hashes to enable constant-space scalability, at the expense of perfect accuracy. Agrawal from Berkeley is the author to watch here, if this is your bag. He’s got a whole book on it.
Also on the tech enablers front, there’s something almost unbearably hot in the machining learning world, that hasn’t yet become standard operating procedure in game analytics: deep learning.
Actually this is a better picture. There’s huge excitement about deep learning as it enables the system to learn the features which are important – and not only that – learn a hierarchy of features, with lower level features being more general, and higher level features being category specific. This has resulted in big progress in speech recognition, and visual processing. The visual processing work is particularly interesting as it dovetails well with work on neurology of visual processing, and on mathematical modelling of processing channels.
I have heard of people using it in analysis of play data, for player segmentation, but it’s been more along the lines of ‘I’ve tried everything but the kitchen sink and here’s this cool thing I will try too - I’m not quite sure what it’s good for but hey why not’.
I’d say adoption is at the garage tinkering stage. Hence the picture of the messy machine shop. Which looks a bit like my desk.
I’m not sure what problems in game analystics are the right shape, and have a strong analogy to signal processing. I think that’s tbd.
By frontier zone, I mean places where practice is evolving, interesting, and not settled. You could I guess count the use of deep learning as a discovery technique as a frontier zone. Here are a few more.
I’m not talking about Dark Side of the Moon, as the final frontier. But about being able to segment players (and game elements) in a way that informs design. There’s a particularly good piece of work in this direction from nucl.ai
There has been a fair amount published on churn prediction detection – game play gives off a number of signals that can be useful in this respect. There was some interesting work at CIG2014 on that last summer, from Wooga in collaboration with University of Lausanne. What there’s been less of, is work that integrates churn detection with churn prevention.
Here’s a really good piece of work from the track I chaired. What’s good about it combines analysis for prediction, for analysis to guide interventions. And it worked really well for them.
Another frontier zone I’d wave a hand to is a meeting of minds between games user research and quantitive product management. Games user research is a discipline with its own set of conferences. I went to one in July, in London, and there’s going to be a big one, ChiPlay in London in October. In the whole day there was only one talk that had any numbers in it.
It may not be obvious but these guys could make a great music together if they’d only learn each other’s languages.
Finally here’s something everyone cares about. My poster child for this once again comes from someone else’s work: Meta Brown. She wrote Data Mining for Dummies. She’s not a dummy though. She has an advanced degree in nuclear engineering from MIT. She’s done lots of big ticket analytics project work, and consulting. She gave a talk earlier this summer at the Imperial College Data Science Institute. I’ve never laughed so hard in a data science talk. I can’t begin to imitate her dry midwestern sense of humour, but there was some good stuff she said that I think bears repetition.
This is like the kind of koan you can chant while walking around whacking yourself on the head with a board. It’s that good.
If you don’t get clear agreement about what success looks like – and to whom – success is going to be elusive. Hugely so.
I’m not talking here about collecting basic metrics, but about going offroad, or on a deep dive in search of treasure.
The key message here is to agree the business problem – and understand it as well as possible – before touching a drop of data. I do see people enjoying just diving in to see what’s there, and that’s fun for a side proejct, but being prepped property makes it easier to explore further.
And as you get more complicated – you need more process support. That means Crisp-DM, or some cousin. According to Meta.
Don’t go mad for big data when small data will do. Use it for what it’s good for.
Here I’ve talked about what I think’s going on at the moment. As to what next, let’s take it to the bar.