HDFC sec note - Global funds - SWOT Analysis - Oct 03, 2013

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Global Funds – SWOT Analysis
Mutual Fund Category Analysis October 03, 2013
Global funds are Indian mutual fund schemes allocating their maximum assets in global equities. Some schemes
are investing directly in international markets while some schemes are investing in the international mutual
funds.
High risk appetite investors who wish to add geographical diversification to their portfolio can consider investing
in the category with minimum investment horizon of three years or so.
Global funds are better diversified investment options as international markets have low correlation with Indian
equity market. Further, they help to invest in global leading companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Coca-Cola etc.
Weakening of rupee or of any currency against the dollar helps the global funds in generating higher returns and
vice versa.
Global funds are high on expenses. The fund of funds schemes have to bear double expenses while the schemes
that invest directly tend to cost more to buy and research stocks abroad.
II. Basic Details:
I. Prologue: Global mutual funds category (Indian mutual funds that invest mainly in global companies) have
come into limelight in present days given their outperforming returns in comparison to the domestic market, all
thanks to the persistent depreciation in the value of domestic currency against the dollar. The top performing
schemes from the category posted returns ranging 40-45% in the last one year period (as of 26 Sep).
It seemed most Indian investors have not utilized this opportunity to capitalize from the category mainly due to
unawareness and the skepticism over the certainty of getting higher or regular returns from these funds. Even
well informed investors stayed away from the global funds though global funds offer better diversification.
However, the latest MF investors folio data (Source: SEBI) showed a marginal uptick (M-o-M) in the number of
folios in the overseas FoF category in the month of August 2013, after a prolonged M-o-M decrease since October
2011.
In this note, we attempt to refresh the features & performance of global funds and their sub-categories using
SWOT tool.

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Mutual Fund Category Analysis contd…
Global funds lose out capital gain and DDT benefits as far as tax implication is concerned as they are treated like
debt oriented funds.
Notwithstanding the global diversification, most of global funds hold concentrated portfolios with constricted
objectives based on theme, country specific, etc.
Minimum investment allowed to invest in global funds are at Rs. 5,000 (Rs. 10,000 in some schemes). SIP, STP
and SWP are also offered. Exit load is ranging from 1% to 3% for the redemption from 30 days to 18 months. (NIL
in case of ETFs).
Expense ratio is ranging from 0.91% to 3.02% on global funds.
1. Global Funds – Agri Business.
2. Global Funds – China Equity.
3. Global Funds – US Equity.
4. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities.
5. Global Funds – Emerging Markets.
6. Global Funds – Across the globe.
III. Classification of Global Funds:
There are 35 schemes coming under Global funds category.
Though it is difficult to sub-classify the Global fund category as each scheme varies in terms of objectives, we
tried to do so based on the assets in which they do invest primarily, geographical diversification and the style of
investing. Hence we have arrived with six categories as,
Please note that all the schemes in global funds category are equity funds and actively managed barring GS Hang
Seng BeES ETF. (incase of FoF, the underlying funds are actively managed schemes).

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IV. Benefits of investing in Global funds:
1. Diversification: Investors can diversify their portfolio through geographical diversification apart from
various asset classes like domestic equities, debt, commodities etc.
2. Access to global industry leaders: Investors can participate in the growth stories of the best and the
biggest businesses globally which many of do not have presence in India. They are such as Face book,
Microsoft, Google, etc.
3. Stability: Global markets often perform in contrast as different countries go through different economic
cycles. By having investments across currencies, investors can ensure steady and stable returns on their
investment.
4. Currency and Geo political diversification: By investing across countries, investors can minimising currency
and geo-political risk.
5. Hedging: Investors who have future dollar expenses (for example, parents planning to send their children
to US for higher education, importers having dollar commitments, etc.) can hedge against any future
depreciation in the rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar by investing in this scheme.
1. Currency risk: is explained in the slide 5.
2. Fund manager’s expertise: The performance of global funds depend on the expertise of fund managers in
handling international funds as not only the rupee-dollar equation is considered but also the performance
of rupee against other Asian currencies.
3. Higher Cost: In case of Fund of Funds, expense fees and management costs are higher than normal mutual
funds, as the cost structure will include the fees of the underlying mutual funds as well as the FoF.
Expense ratio for these funds ranging from 0.91% to 3.02%.
4. Country-specific risks include political and economic instability in the country your investments are
exposed to.
V. Risks of investing in Global funds:

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Investors have to note that no country can continue to perform well forever. Each one is going to have its own
period of glory and worry. This is the same case for India as well which has frequently alternated between the
best and the worst phases.
Considering the chart below, while emerging markets are considered high potential, it is also equally true that
they are more volatile. Similarly, while the BSE Sensex saw outperformed both the MSCI World Index and the
MSCI EM Index in the 2002-2007 period, it has been quite the other way round in the 2008-2012 period.
Further, with low correlation with Indian equities, the overall risk of your portfolio is reduced thus the investors
will get the balanced returns from the investment.
VI. The need of global Diversification - Explained:
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When you spread your investment across the universe, you must bear the risk associated with fluctuations in the
exchange rates. Fluctuations in these currency values, whether Rupee or USD or the currencies of the countries
where the mutual funds invest, can either enhance or reduce the returns.
Operationally, the rupee (invested by the investor) is first converted into dollar and then into the local currency
for investing abroad and vice-versa.
To put in simple term, if the rupee appreciates vis-à-vis the dollar, the returns from the scheme will be
adversely affected and vice-versa.
The present situation of depreciation in Indian Rupee Vs. US Dollar has helped the global funds across the board.
The dollar witnessed appreciation against all the major currencies in the last one year period (18% vs the Rupee
in absolute term as of 26 Sep 2013) which propelled the returns of the global funds. (see the chart below).
VII. Currency risk - Explained:
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USD/Chinese Yuan USD/Hong Kong Dollar
USD/Russian Rouble USD/South African Rand

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Mutual Fund Category Analysis
Sub Categories - Explained

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i. Global Funds – Agri Business contd…
There are 3 schemes in Indian mutual fund industry investing
primarily in equity of agricultural companies worldwide.
Agricultural companies are those which are engaged in
agriculture, agricultural chemicals, equipment and
infrastructure, agricultural commodities and food, bio-fuels,
crop sciences, farm land and forestry. They also invest in the
direct and indirect beneficiaries of the anticipated growth in
the agriculture and/or affiliated/allied sectors.
Schemes that invest in Global Agri business companies
showed consistent but average performance since launch
given the strong secular demand drivers of rising global
population, increasing protein consumption in emerging
markets and the adoption of alternative fuels such as bio-
fuel. Depreciation in the domestic currency against the
dollar also supported in the medium term.
i. Global Funds – Agri Business:
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DSP BR World Agriculture
Birla Sun Life CEF - Global Agri
DWS Global Agribusiness Offshore
S&P Global Agribusi Equity Index (INR)
Sensex
Agri Business schemes Vs. Domestic Equity:
They invest mainly in stocks belonging to
developed economies such as US, Canada etc.
Hence, the risk of losing out capital is
somewhat reduced.

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Strengths:
• Agribusiness worldwide is a profitable sector and the valuations remain well below historical longer term
averages.
• Agribusiness companies tend to be less affected by business cycle swings than most equity sectors due to the
unique supply and demand dynamics of the sector.
• Crop insurance – helps producer to stay away from the risk of loss and maintain revenue.
• Urbanization.
• Persistent increasing demand due to population growth.
Weaknesses:
• Agricultural commodity prices remain at elevated levels over a decade.
• High commodity prices has led producers to increase capital spending on new supply.
• Weather conditions are a huge swing factor affecting agricultural production.
• Drought and diminished production.
• Land & Water Scarcity and Increasing Pollution.
• Declining Yield.
Opportunities:
• Trend of rising emerging market demand for agricultural produce.
• Rising population growth - rise in global cereal demand.
• Tend to benefit from rising farm incomes and insurance payments to the farming sector.
SWOT Analysis:

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• Fast growing middle class population in emerging countries such as China that leading to higher imports.
• Long-term dietary change toward more protein consumption factorising more of the global crop production.
• Depleting natural resources (eg, growing bio-energy demand)
• More of merger and Acquisition in agribusiness sector.
• Limited Resources - growing need for higher productivity.
Threats:
• Weak global economic conditions affecting demand, putting pressure on prices.
• Upward pressure on food prices.
• Production is expected to decline as a result of rising costs and resource constraints.
• Weakening of domestic currencies against the dollar affect imports.
• Production uncertainty.
• Stagnant growth in developed world.
• Low yields with inflationary risks.
• Lack of or poor infrastructure.
• Hot climate, as weather conditions influence the performance of this commodity.
To conclude:
Agribusiness worldwide is likely to see gradual growth over the long term given the rising population and long
term dietary changes. Further, the unique supply and demand dynamics of the sector would mitigate the risk that
are associated with the industry. The historical performance of the funds is decent as they at least delivered
outperforming or positive returns. So investors with medium to high risk appetite profile can invest and hold for
at least 3 years or so. Stability or appreciation in rupee against the dollar may cut the returns from the funds.

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i. Global Funds – Agri Business
Relative Returns - Benchmarks:
How they fared Vs. Equity Diversified schemes:
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S&P Global Agribiz Eq Index (INR)
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Birla Sun Life CEF - Global Agri DSP BR World Agriculture DWS Global Agribusi Offshore
Global Funds - Agri Business Indian - Equity Diversified
DWS Global Agribusiness Offshore and DSP BR World Agri are the top performing schemes from the category.
Agribusiness index posted positive returns in the six out of last seven years period. However, the appreciation or
depreciation in the rupee against the dollar will play important role on the schemes returns going forward.

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ii. Global Funds – China Equity contd…
There are three mutual fund schemes in India which
predominantly investing in Chinese equity markets such
as JPMorgan JF Greater China Equity Off Shore, Mirae
Asset China Advantage and GS Hang Seng BeES.
The mutual fund schemes that focus mainly on Chinese
equities have managed to outperform/track closely their
respective benchmarks as well as domestic indices during
various time frames all thanks to the rebounded Chinese
equity markets coupled with depreciation of INR against
USD.
Like India, China has been also the victim of global
headwinds over periods. However, the Chinese equity
market gained in the recent periods on the back of some
early signs of stabilization in the economy coupled with
the rally of the China onshore equity market.
ii. Global Funds – China Equity
NAV Performance Vs. Domestic Equity:
These schemes invest mostly in the large cap Chinese
stocks which are having potential to grow. The above
chart portrays the relative outperformance of the
schemes against the Sensex. Needless to say, the
depreciation of Rupee Vs. Dollar also helped to
achieve outperforming returns.

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ii. Global Funds – China Equity contd…
SWOT Analysis:
Strengths:
• China - the fastest growing economy in the world, has been growing at an average of 9+% for the past 30
years.
• Cheapest and attractive valuations.
• Emerging middle class households, increasing number of super-rich, ongoing urbanization and increasing big
and mid-sized cities support consumer spending and bring huge service demand.
• Low unemployment, robust domestic demand, and credit growth continue to bolster economic growth.
• A stable currency.
• In the transition mode from investment to consumption-led growth.
• Potential to grow at much faster rates than developed economies.
Weaknesses:
• Rising inflationary concerns and slowdown in the growth.
• Economic recovery is likely to be slower than in previous cycles as China works to correct imbalances and is
restricted in its ability to pump prime growth.
• Tight labour market.
Opportunities:
• Subdued growth from developed economies provide support to emerging economies.
• Growth to pick up: China to focus on consumption in order to reduce China’s reliance on exports and
investment spending. Hence, consumption growth to be a long-term theme that lasts many years.
• The upward earnings revision to support market sentiment and rebound in the near term.

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ii. Global Funds – China Equity
Relative Returns - Benchmarks: How they fared Vs. Equity Diversified schemes:
• The new leadership is expected to focus on deregulation and liberalization of key sectors, as well as on the
social welfare of the population.
Threats:
• China’s working population started to decline. Increasing wages level.
• The housing boom has led to overbuilding and expensive valuations.
• Key exports markets continuing to struggle.
• Any possible stimulus withdrawal by Fed will impact the emerging markets.
To conclude:
China market is very cheap in current price level and hard landing risk of economy is low, so downside risk in near
term will be limited. However, it is unlikely to expect a strong uptrend in near term but a gradual growth would
be seen in the economy.
Given the above points, investors with higher risk appetite who are looking for sustainable growth from the
emerging market can consider investing in China equity funds and hold over the longer term.
Chinese indices posted moderate growth in comparison to Sensex over the last seven years period. The depreciation in the rupee value ultimately supported the schemes
to deliver better returns over the medium term. JPMorgan JF Greater China Equity Off-Shore and Mirae Asset China Advantage are the top performing schemes from the
category.

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iii. Global Funds – US Equity contd…
There are five funds in the domestic domain that invest
majorly in US equities. Each fund follows different
investment strategy of allocating assets based on the
different themes.
All the funds in the category managed to generate decent
returns over the last one year period on the back of
persistent depreciation in the rupee value against the
dollar. They yielded returns ranging from 32-45% (as of 26
Sep) in the last one year period while the INR
depreciated close to 18%.
iii. Global Funds – US Equity:
The global economy is going through an uncertain phase, but recent data is pointing towards an improving
economy in the United States. US companies emerged from the 2008 crisis with stronger balance sheets, leaner
operations all of which make them very competitive in the global marketplace. However, one can not expect the
similar returns as the category posted in the last one year period going forward as the rupee seems to stabilize
or may move in a narrow range against the dollar in the near to medium term.

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iii. Global Funds – US Equity contd…
Strengths:
• Access to the world’s largest equity market.
• Highest GDP in the world at $15 trillion.
• US Equities are a core component of global equity portfolios/indices.
• US is amongst the most well diversified markets offering to invest in global brands which benefit from global
business & consumption.
• Diversification by investing in a low correlated market which may lower the volatility in one’s portfolio.
• Exposure to global benchmark currency i.e the US dollar.
• Access to certain sectors like semiconductor, aerospace, etc which may not be available in the Indian equity
market.
Weaknesses:
• Fiscal consolidation.
• Higher taxes and fiscal austerity.
• Persisting low U.S. interest rates is keeping investors pressed to search for higher yields outside.
Opportunities:
• US equities are currently attractively valued.
• US companies are better equipped to manage a challenging macro environment.
• US economy continues to demonstrate slow but stable economic recovery.
SWOT Analysis:

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iii. Global Funds – US Equity
• Possibility of a sustained recovery.
• The rate of growth of the labour force is likely to be higher.
• Fiscal progress and clarity regarding taxes to help support continued strong performance by U.S. companies
and consumers.
Threats:
• The US equities are no longer benefiting from a rise in bond yields which has been undermining corporate
margins & having a negative impact on economic activity.
• Possibility of rise in the inflation expectations in the economy.
• Total employment still remains well below its pre-recession peak.
To conclude:
The economic recovery in the U.S is expected to be in a slowed pace considering the present macro economic
conditions. Given the bluechip orientation, the investors with medium to high risk appetite can consider investing
in US equity mutual funds. The holding period would be at least 3 years or so.
The U.S stocks saw recovery from the recession period of 2008 and delivered positive returns over the last five years period.

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iv. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities contd…
There are seven Indian mutual fund schemes investing
primarily in global mining and commodity equities,
out of which two schemes invest mainly in gold mining
companies and rest invest in overall commodities
equity companies.
None of the funds hold any form of physical or
dematerialized gold or metals but invest in stocks of
companies in the business of extracting, processing
and marketing of gold across globe. Investment may
also take place in companies engaged in the business
of mining other metals or precious stones.
iv. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities:
Prices of Mining companies’ stocks including gold mines witnessed fall across the spectrum and sunk to their
lows over the last two years. They underperformed their underlying commodities in the wake of waning risk
appetite among investors across the world.
All schemes posted lackluster performance over the last two years period given the
geo political condition, global growth slow down and fall in the commodity prices.

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iv. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities contd…
The schemes maintain concentrated portfolios of investing only in mining industries as mandated, holding an
average of 46 stocks. As far as regional exposure is concerned, more weightage has been given to North America,
Europe followed by Canada, Latin America and South Africa.
SWOT Analysis:
Strengths:
• Gold – a good hedge against the uncertainties.
• Rise in the prices of commodities.
• Constant demand.
• Increase in industrial demand.
• Increase in Jewellery demand with China and India.
Weaknesses:
• Most of commodities were downgraded given the global growth expectations.
• A decade of high commodity prices has led producers to increase capital spending on new supply.
• Sentiment has temporarily turned negative for gold.
• Lack of Infrastructure and the supply chain
Opportunities:
• Persisting inflationary pressure posing strong environment for gold.
• New management teams, improving capital discipline and operational efficiency and greater willingness to
return to capital to shareholders.
• Free cash-flow level.

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iv. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities
Threats:
• Global economic uncertainty and growth slowdown lead to demand for many commodities dropping
dramatically.
• Political risk and strikes.
• Rising cost and insurance hurdles.
• Skills shortage.
• Price and currency volatility.
• Infrastructure access.
• Signs of US economic growth.
To conclude:
In the medium term, commodity prices are likely to remain range-bound as supply and demand have come closer
into balance. Even well-managed mining businesses are unable to generate free cash flow and they need to be
focused on capital discipline, operational efficiency and growing margins through cost control. Hence, investors
are advised to stay away from Gold and commodity funds.

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v. Global Funds – Emerging Markets contd…
Apart from China focused funds, there are seven funds
investing in emerging markets out of which one fund is
country specific (HSBC Brazil) while the others spread
investments across the emerging markets.
Though these schemes provide geographical
diversification, they are semi diversified and high risk
high return mutual funds as they invest in emerging
countries. Further, the investors have to bear the
country specific risk also.
Franklin Asian Equity and Kotak Global Emerging Market
are the best performing schemes from the category.
v. Global Funds – Emerging Markets:
Depreciation of Rupee against the dollar helped the these schemes to generate higher returns. But, on the other
hand, the depreciated home currency where the stocks are invested in reduced the profit of the schemes.

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v. Global Funds – Emerging Markets contd…
SWOT Analysis:
Strengths:
• The developed world is undergoing a prolonged phase of structural deleveraging, both at the household and
at the sovereign level. As a result, the emerging world will remain the driver of global output, led by China,
with positive implications for Latin America, a key trading partner.
• Emerging markets have potential to grow much faster rates than developed economies.
• Emerging Markets, a key beneficiary of the abundant liquidity environment, have seen the most dramatic
moves as capital has exited the region amid general risk aversion and as investors chase higher rates in
developed markets.
• Structural reform agendas in emerging markets. The new leadership in China is expected to focus on
deregulation and liberalization of key sectors. Reform will also be on the table in other key markets such as
Brazil, Russia and Mexico. India offers a rich mix of secular growth stories across the consumer, financial,
software and health care sectors, and is much less volatile than other commodity and cyclically-led emerging
economies.
• The Philippines, though a small market, continues to be interesting on the back of a strong pool of a young,
English-speaking population, which is slowly dominating service sectors across the region, including business
process outsourcing, travel and tourism.
• Brazilian earnings revisions are bottoming, Mexico is undergoing significant structural reform.
Weaknesses:
• Higher inflation and depreciation in domestic currency.
• Economic recovery is likely to be slower than in previous cycles as China works to correct imbalances and is
restricted in its ability to pump prime growth.
• Global currency war e.g., rate cuts, tariffs, capital controls in emerging economies will impact negatively.

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v. Global Funds – Emerging Markets
Opportunities:
• Subdued growth from developed economies provide support to emerging economies.
• Monetary and fiscal stimulus and easier monetary policy will benefit the emerging markets.
• Asia to lead growth in emerging markets due to the recoveries in China and India.
Threats:
• The lingering effects of the fiscal cliff debate in the U.S. and the ongoing recession in Europe could continue
to weigh on emerging market.
• A recession in the U.S. could lead to a significantly negative impact on global growth.
• End of policy easing stokes in developed economies will intensify the sell off in the emerging market side.
To conclude:
The funds that are investing emerging markets are high risk high returns products wherein one need to
continuously track the performance of the investment. So investors with very high risk profile can consider invest
in this and hold for at least 3 years.
However, periodical review is mandatory on this.

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vi. Global Funds – Across the globe contd…
There are ten schemes in Indian MF industry spread
their asset across the globe. They are meant for more
diversification. However, each scheme follows different
themes.
Some of the schemes showed better returns while some
of the schemes posted marginal returns. However, all
the schemes got benefited from the depreciation of
rupee against the dollar.
Though they diversify their investment across the globe,
they are not required to invest in all the countries. So,
each scheme invests based on the objectives.
vi. Global Funds – Across the Globe:
Birla Sun Life International Equity A and DWS Global Thematic Offshore, ING Global Real Estate and L&T Global
Real Assets have been the top and consistent performers over the periods.

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vi. Global Funds – Across the globe
SWOT Analysis:
Strengths:
• They have global presence of investing across countries and market capitalisation.
Weaknesses:
• Country specific risk.
• Currency risk.
Opportunities:
• When one country underperforms the other outperforming country will off-set the loss and help to achieve
the balanced returns.
Threats:
• Appreciation of domestic or the currency of the invested country and Geo political uncertainties.
To conclude:
Investors with high risk profile can consider invest in this and hold for at least 3 years. However, periodical
review is mandatory on this.

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.
Mutual Fund Category Analysis
Analyst: Dhuraivel Gunasekaran. (Database sources: AMC Sites, NAVIndia and Ace MF)
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Corpus Chart – Total Global Funds category (Rs Crs):
HDFC Securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Bulding –B, ”Alpha”, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station,
Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone (022) 30753400 Fax: (022) 30753435
Disclaimer: Mutual Fund investments are subject to risk. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. This document has been
prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or
copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The
information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied
upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time
solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for non-
Institutional Clients.

HDFC sec note - Global funds - SWOT Analysis - Oct 03, 2013

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HDFC sec note - Global funds - SWOT Analysis - Oct 03, 2013