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Foresight at Arup

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2009 11 24 UPMF - An intro to the tools and techniques of Arup Foresight.

Publié dans : Design, Business, Technologie
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Foresight at Arup

  1. 1. DUNCAN WILSON, ARUP UPMF, GRENOBLE, 24.11.09
  2. 3. Arup is no ordinary firm We are an independent firm of designers, planners, engineers, consultants and technical specialists offering a broad range of professional services. Through our work, we make a positive difference in the world. We shape a better world
  3. 8. Energy/Emissions Reduction 能源产生、使用和减少排放 Conventional City Energy Demand 1650 GWH/year CO2 Emissions 350,000 tons/year Dongtan Eco-City Energy Demand 600 GWH/year CO2 Emissions NONE for power/heat NOTE: this is still not good enough for one planet living…
  4. 9. Our Clients Business Leaders STEEP Drivers Design Necessity DTX Leaders Our Staff Arup Fellows HEI Approach National Funding Research Champs Drivers of Change Research Roadmap DTF Projects On Project IP Executive Business as Usual NEXT 3-10 yrs NEW 1-3 yrs NOW < 1 yr ecosystem PULL PUSH Skills Networks Arup Projects In-house Training Papers & Press
  5. 10. <ul><li>50 global networks – connect and stimulate ideas </li></ul><ul><li>Determine best practice, distil this into practical guidance and deliver the best of our global expertise to our projects </li></ul><ul><li>Aim is for client to have team of 10,000 people on their project </li></ul>skills networks
  6. 11. 1. Strategy <ul><li>Corporate research roadmaps </li></ul><ul><li>Regional and group strategy facilitation </li></ul>2. Network 3. Funding Research Offering Components <ul><li>Set up and management of research consortiums </li></ul><ul><li>Links to research funding bodies </li></ul><ul><li>Grow and develop the research network </li></ul><ul><li>Internal engagement in multidisciplinary research </li></ul><ul><li>Engagement with key external partners </li></ul>4. IP commercialisation <ul><li>Harvesting and commercialisation of Arup’s IP </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic research planning – road mapping for clients </li></ul><ul><li>Multidisciplinary research packages </li></ul><ul><li>Delivery of commissioned research projects </li></ul><ul><li>Research programme management & Sandpits </li></ul><ul><li>Thought leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge Management </li></ul>5. Research Business research
  7. 13. Institute for Sustainability <ul><li>Chinese eco-cities project identified a need for an Institute to capture and disseminate learning on sustainability and to attract environmental technology businesses </li></ul><ul><li>This has resulted in a newly formed Sino-UK Research Institute for Sustainability in Shanghai </li></ul><ul><li>The size of the development challenge in both the Thames Gateway and Shanghai provides an opportunity for collaboration and an opportunity to twin best practices in sustainable development </li></ul><ul><li>The Institute will be part of a network of similarly focussed institutes around the world. </li></ul>Original concept was proposed by Arup, HSBC, SDCL as part of work delivering a model for eco-cities in China
  8. 14. Manage £6m
  9. 15. <ul><li>a multi-disciplinary team of researchers, scientists, academics, strategists and consultants. </li></ul>
  10. 16. What we do <ul><li>Research </li></ul><ul><li>Projects developed to identify incremental and step-change opportunities for the built environment and business </li></ul><ul><li>Futures Workshops </li></ul><ul><li>Thought leadership through the engagement of key stakeholders and industry experts in dialogue and collaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Lectures </li></ul><ul><li>Communicating important future challenges, the global context and business implications to both industry and government heads </li></ul><ul><li>Publications </li></ul><ul><li>Detailed research results such as the drivers of change card set, offering provocative insights on major issues and their implications </li></ul>
  11. 17. gut + heart + head working assumption I
  12. 18. working assumption II no ONE has the key
  13. 19. working assumption III emergence WWW2.0
  14. 20. working assumption IV only humans make boxes
  15. 21. working assumption V we must all share ONE PLANET
  16. 22. change is constant; context is variable. working assumption VI
  17. 24. <ul><li>Thought leadership through the engagement of key stakeholders and industry experts in dialogue and collaboration </li></ul>Futures Workshops Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Future of High-frequency Retail City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail 2024: Design Matters The Retail Participants are hand-picked for their backgrounds, cross-disciplinary skills and ability to collaboratively expand the workshop’s insights and discussion. Workshops vary in length from one to three days and cover a wide range of themes. Current and past workshops include: <ul><li>Future of High-frequency Retail for Airports, City Centres and Stations </li></ul><ul><li>Hotels and Resorts of the Future for Business Travel and Urban Oases </li></ul><ul><li>Office of the Future </li></ul><ul><li>Interchange of the Future </li></ul><ul><li>School of the Future </li></ul>City Centre Retail 2025 The Future of Airport Retail Station Retail of the Future The Future of the Office Schools of the Future Interchange of the Future Resorts of the Future Urban Oasis Hotel of the Future: the Business Traveller Retail
  18. 25. Methodology <ul><li>Projects are developed for particular industries and businesses within a phased approach by Examining the challenge, Engaging in dialogue and Evolving solutions. Each phase produces its own output. </li></ul>
  19. 26. Hotels of the Future The Business Traveller Hilton International, Copenhagen Context Business travel will continue to grow. How confident are we in this official future? What else could happen? Insights Choreographing Sensations Susan Kozel, Artist, School of Interactive Arts & Technology Cars. That’s a Man’s World. Mogens Laursen, Brand Development Manger, Volvo Guests of the Future Simon Dannatt, CEO, Kae Marketing Intelligence Concepts One Space Fluid, open space with interconnected rooms We-hive Plug-in rooms are organized according to a network of tribes Ego Hotel Highly self-expressive guest pods situated around transportation hubs Tactiles Sensual space sensitive to its guest’s needs
  20. 27. City Centre Retail 2025 Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute, Zurich Context The role of the city as the centre of commerce is thousands of years old. Why wouldn’t it stay this way? Insights High Street Success Factors Christoph Ackert, Chairman, Location Services Guerilla Retailing Russ Miller, Vacant A Never Ending Love Story? Dieter Geissbuehler, Architect, Alexander Galiker DG und Partner City Centre Retail Gazette 2025 Concepts The Love Inn Holistic leisure club and social beauty centre Spiral to Heaven Comprehensive health check-up retailing space Digital Rough Guide Culturally-sensitive shopping guide for the global consumer Empty Spaces Disused space ‘mobbed’ and ‘swarmed’ for social shopping
  21. 28. Airport Retail 2025 Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute, Zurich Context Think of airports as shopping malls with plane parking. Will airports be the mega-retail hubs of the future? Insights Success Criteria for a Luxury Brand in Airport Retail Peter Zottl, Swarovski Space Architecture Andreas Vogler, Architekture & Vision Unwanted Gifts John Ryan, Retailweek Concepts SIMS World The airport as no-man’s land; a federation of “your own laws” Pleasure Dome Everything is provided for everyone. A place you never have to leave Travel Butler A travel companion trained and activated for your travel enjoyment Ethical Airport A place which considers its relationship to sustainable practice
  22. 29. Bloc Islands Re-globalisation Global Yo-Yo Flat Line Bloc Islands GLOBAL GOVERNANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH Official futures
  23. 30. a global view
  24. 31. What are the key external driving forces that will be important for the next 20 years? STEEP Drivers S ocial T echnological Ec onomic En vironmental P olitical disaggregate prioritize re-aggregate
  25. 32. S ocial T echnological E c onomic E n vironmental P olitical Demographic Change Convergence ChIndia Resource Depletion Lack of Vision/Leadership www.driversofchange.com
  26. 34. Foresight Feed Blog Team members upload their latest observations, research and events. drivers of change exhibitions Traveling series of exhibitions featuring the drivers of change research including London, Tokyo, etc. (need image)
  27. 37. Anatomy of a card <ul><li>Question </li></ul><ul><li>Photo </li></ul><ul><li>Factoid </li></ul><ul><li>Issue </li></ul><ul><li>Data </li></ul>
  28. 38. A few THOUGHTS some of the trends and themes we think are important
  29. 39. “ The Urban population [in China] is to reach 1.12 billion by 2050; this is a shift of more than 600 million people from rural to urban.” Guangming Daily Urbanisation
  30. 40. Urbanisation demographic change uncomfortably predictable Urban More Developed Rural More Developed Rural Less Developed Urban Less Developed Source: United Nations Population Information Network
  31. 41. RESOURCE DEPLETION : ENERGY
  32. 42. the energy / wealth ladder Source: IMF, BP +$25k/capita : little extra energy needed +$15k/capita : services start to dominate growth +$5k/capita : industrialisation and mobility take off +$10k/capita : industrialisation near complete Korea Thailand Brazil Mexico India China GJ/capita GDP/capita (‘000 1997$ PPP) Japan EU Australia US 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
  33. 43. 24 Nov 2009 ageing population the number of people aged 60 will triple by 2050. Who will work for you?
  34. 44. Single-person households make up one-third of all households in Western Europe
  35. 45. the merging of sciences and other disciplines the combination of sectors to create new business the convergence of technology
  36. 54. <ul><li>Social Hacking/ Social Innovation </li></ul>www.driversofchange.com/projects/
  37. 55. http://blogs.driversofchange.com/emtech/ http://www.driversofchange.com/doc/ @djdunc
  38. 56. Arup’s role <ul><li>Arup Research </li></ul><ul><li>Founding partner </li></ul><ul><li>Research strategy development </li></ul><ul><li>Identification of funding streams </li></ul><ul><li>Arup Project Management </li></ul><ul><li>Role definition and organisation set up </li></ul><ul><li>£5m funding application to the Europe Regional Development Fund </li></ul><ul><li>PR and Communications </li></ul><ul><li>Project and programme management of Research Projects </li></ul><ul><li>Arup Transaction Advice </li></ul><ul><li>Business plan development </li></ul><ul><li>Economic and regeneration impact study </li></ul><ul><li>Arup Associates </li></ul><ul><li>Architecture and Engineering services for £40m research laboratory </li></ul>Draws on a wide range of skills and services including:

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