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Startup Metrics for Pirates (Nov 2015, Platzi)

slides for my live webcast with Platzi

Startup Metrics for Pirates (Nov 2015, Platzi)

  1. Startup Metrics for Pirates @DaveMcClure Founding Partner, 500 Startups http://500.co http://500hats.com http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats AARRR!
  2. Dave McClure
 Founding Partner & Troublemaker, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  3. • What is 500? – $200M under management – 100+ people / 30 investing partners / 18 Countries – 2500+ Founders / 250+ Mentors • 1300+ Portfolio Co’s / 50+ Countries – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) – Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) – Simple (acq BBVA, $117M) – Credit Karma (~$3.5B) – GrabTaxi ($1B+) – Twilio ($1B+) – Ipsy – SendGrid – VivaReal – Udemy – Zozi – The RealReal – Virool – BarkBox – Tradesy 500 Startups
 Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
  4. [ This Talk ]
  5. Topics • Basic Concepts of “Startup Metrics 4 Pirates” • 3 Steps to AARRR: Product, Market, Revenue • Constructing MVP: Just ONE Feature? • Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) • Winning = Users, Revenue, Profit?
  6. Lean Startup:
 Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter 1. Startup Costs = Lower. 2. # Users, Bandwidth = More. 3. Transaction $$$ = Better. Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions based on Measured User Behavior
  7. Platforms 2.0
 Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Messaging
  8. Changes in Tech Startups • LESS Capital required to build product, get to market – Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth – Crowdfunding, KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc – Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc • MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) – Search (Google, Baidu) – Social (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) – Mobile (Apple, Android) – ECom (Amazon, Alibaba, eBay/PayPal) – Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram) – Comm (Email, IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc) • LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits – Y Combinator, TechStars, 500 Startups – Funding + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
  9. DO Marketing! 
 (It’s Not Evil) • Marketing is Both Qualitative + Quantitative • Qualitative: Create Emotion, Drive Action • Quantitative: Measure Results of Action • Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) Matter • Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)
  10. [Startup Metrics 4 Pirates]
  11. Just Gimme the GOOD Metrics. Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...? Q: Which of these is best? How do you know? • 1,000,000 one-time, unregistered unique visitors • 500,000 visitors who view 2+ pages / stay 10+ sec • 200,000 visitors who clicked on a link or button • 20,000 registered users w/ email address • 2,000 passionate fans who refer 5+ users / mo. • 1,000 monthly subscribers @ $5/mo the good stuff.
  12. Lean Startup -> Startup Metrics • Talk to Customers; Discover Problems • Progress ≠ Features (Less = More) • Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop) • Focus on Product/Market Fit • Measure Conversion (compare 2+ alternatives) • Track Metrics that are Simple & Actionable
  13. Discover Customers
 (Steve Blank, SteveBlank.com)
  14. LEARN BUILD MEASURE IDEAS CODE DATA Iterate.
 (Eric Ries, TheLeanStartup.com)
  15. AARRR!: Startup Metrics Model Website.com Revenue $$$ Biz DevAds, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, ECommerce ACQUISITION SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains Retention Emails & Alerts System Events & Time-based Features Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
  16. Startup Metrics for Pirates • Acquisition: users come to site from various channels • Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience • Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times • Referral: users like product enough to refer others • Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior AARRR! (note: If you’re in a hurry, Google “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)
  17. One Step at a Time. 1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention 2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral 3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability
  18. Startup Challenges Startups have problems in 3 key areas: • Management: Set Priorities, Define Key Metrics • Product: Build “Right” Features. Measure, Iterate. • Marketing: Distribution, Distribution, Distribution. (Search, Social, Mobile)
  19. [ Constructing MVP ]
  20. Role: Founder / CEO Q: Which Customers? Problems? Metrics? A: Focus on Critical Few Actionable Metrics (if you don’t use the metric to make a decision, it’s not actionable) • Hypothesize Customer Lifecycle • Target ~3-5 Conversion Events • Test, Measure, Iterate to Improve
  21. Optimize 4 Happiness 
 (both User + Business) • Define States of User + Business Value • Prioritize (Estimate) Relative Value of Each State • Move Users: Lower Value -> Higher Value • Optimize for User Happiness + Business $$$ • Achieve High Cust Value + Low ACQ$ @ Scale
  22. What is Minimum Viable Product ? MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) • Focus on CUSTOMER – Qualitative Discovery, Quantitative Validation • Get to know habits, problems, desires (FUN MATTERS) – what causes pain? what causes pleasure? • Ship the simplest, fastest solution that solves the problem; better or cheaper or faster than the available competition. • Define 1-5 TESTABLE Conversion Metrics of Value – Attention/Usage (session time, clicks) – Customer Profle Data (email, connect, profile) - Revenue (direct or indirect) - Retention (visits over time, cohort behavior) - Referral (users evangelize to other users)
  23. Example Conversion Metrics
 (note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary) Stage Conversion Status Conv. % Est. Value (*not* cost) Acquisition Visitors -> Site/Widget/Landing Page (2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don’t abandon) 60% $.05 Activation “Happy” 1st Visit; Usage/Signup (clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage) 15% $.25 Retention Users Come Back; Multiple Visits (1-3x visits/mo; email/feed open rate / CTR) 5% $1 Referral Users Refer Others (cust sat >=8; viral K factor > 1; ) 1% $5 Revenue Users Pay / Generate $$$ (first txn, break-even, target profitability) 2% $50
  24. [ Getting 2 PMF ]
  25. Role: Product / Eng / Design Q: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”? A: Easy-to-Find, Fun/Useful, Unique Features that Increase Conversion (stop iterating when increase decelerates) • Wireframes = Conversion Steps • Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly) • Optimize for Conversion Improvement – 80% on existing feature optimization – 20% on new feature development
  26. What is Product/Market Fit ? PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives*) • Product / Market Fit occurs when: – Customers like your stuff better than other options – Not static, Not optimal – just Local Max F(customers, solution, time) – make sure you’re moving in optimal direction 2 local max • Q: what competitive solutions are available? – … that your customers know about? – how are you diff/same? – in ways that people care about? (will pay for)
  27. [ Testing 4 AUX ]
  28. Discover Meaning
 Why Should Users CARE About Your Product? Kathy Sierra: “Creating Passionate Users”
  29. Discover Meaning
 Keywords, Images, Call-to-Action Top 10 - 100 words • Your Brand / Products • Customer Needs / Benefits • Competitor’s Brand / Products • Semantic Equivalents • Misspellings Relevant images • People • Products • Problems • Solutions Call-to-Action • Words • Images • Context • Button/Link • Emotion Result • Positive? • Negative? • Neutral (= Death) • A/B test & Iterate
  30. How To Tell if Design/UX is Good? AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics) • If Users Use Your Product Then It’s GOOD. – Define Metrics, Measurability for Design / UX – Focus on Psychology of User – Relative to Competitive Alternatives (that your customers know about) – Keep Testing 4 Awesomeness • RAMP Mktg & $$$ AFTER it’s clear your MVP is: – Functional = useful for >1 customers – Awesome (enough, see above) – Differentiated = better than other stuff availabile
  31. [ Metrics 4 ACQ ]
  32. Role: Marketing / Sales Q: What channels? Which users? Why? A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%) • Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns • Seek out channels with positive unit economics, scalability • Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes • Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page • Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential • Low-Hanging Fruit: – Blogs – SEO/SEM – Landing Pages – Automated Emails
  33. Distribution Platforms Customer Reach: 100M-1B+ • Search: Google, Baidu, Yahoo/Bing, Yandex • Social: Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, TenCent/QQ, WeChat • Mobile: Apple (iOS), Android • Media: Video (YouTube), Photos (Instagram, Pinterest), Blogs • Comm: SMS, IM (WeChat, WhatsApp), Skype, Phone/Voice, etc
  34. MAARRRketing Plan Marketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels • 3 Important Factors = Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%) • Measure conversion to target customer actions • Test audience segments, campaign themes, Call-To-Action (CTAs) [Gradually] Match Channel Costs => Revenue Potential • Increase Vol. & Conversion, Decrease Cost, Optimize for Revenue Potential • Avg Txn Value (ATV), Ann Rev Per User (ARPU), Cust Lifetime Value (CLV) • Design channels that (eventually) cost <20-50% of target ATV, ARPU, CLV Consider Costs, Scarce Resource Tradeoffs • Actual $ expenses • Marketing time & resources • Product/Engineering time & resources • Cashflow timing of expense vs. revenue, profit ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)
  35. [ What is WINNING? ]
  36. Choose #WINNING Metrics WIN = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue) • after MVP functional use, several options: – better Usage – Activation & Retention (AUX) – more Users -- Distribution / Acquisition – more Money --- Monetization – more Profit — Margin • understand ACQ$ vs REV$, optimize 4 short-term – higher volume usually a priority – costs may change as volume increases
  37. [ The Lean Investor ]
  38. Startup 2.0: 
 “Lean Investor” Model Method: Invest in startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and expand investment upon success. • Incubator: $0-100K (“Product Viability”) • Seed: $100K-$2M (“Expand Distribution”) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Revenue”)
  39. Investment #1: Incubate
 (“Product”) • Structure – 1-3 founders – $0-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors • Build Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works” – Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics – Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10) • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment
  40. Investment #2: Seed
 (“Market”)• Structure – 2-5 person team – $100K-$2M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds • Improve Product, Expand Market, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “Doesn’t Suck” – Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion – Test Marketing Campaigns, Cust Acqstn Channels • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  41. Investment #3: Venture
 (“Revenue”) • Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – VC Investors • Make Money, Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-18 months – Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends” – MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  42. Q&A? » Questions? » Answers: $1 » Correct Answers: $10 » Stupid Look on my face: FREE!
  43. Appendix (note the following slides are a bit old and i haven’t updated them in quite a while… sorry ;)
  44. Startup Metrics Activation
  45. Website.com Activation Criteria: • 10-30+ seconds • 2-3+ page views • 3-5+ clicks • 1 key feature usage do LOTS of landing page & A/B tests – make lots of dumb guesses & iterate FAST SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains Activation
  46. Activation
 What do users do on their first visit? Example Activation Goals • Click on something! • Account sign up / Emails • Referrals / Tell a friend • Widgets / Embeds • Low Bounce Rate Activation Tips • Less is more • Focus on user experience / usability • Provide incentives & call to actions • Test and iterate continuously
  47. Activation
 What do users do on their first visit? Key Metrics to Track ✓ Pages per visit ✓ Time on site ✓ Conversions
  48. Activation Tools Crazy Egg (Visual Click Mapping) http://crazyegg.com Google Website Optimizer (A/B & Multivariate Testing) http://google.com/websiteoptimizer Marketo.com (B2B Lead Generation Management) http://marketo.com Resources Experimentation and Testing: A Primer kaushik.net/avinash/2006/05/experimentation-and-testing-a-primer.html Landing Page Design Toolbox: 100 Tips & Tools http://tinyurl.com/326co6 Landing Page Tutorials & Case Studies http://www.copyblogger.com/landing-pages/ 101 Easy Easy to use Google Website Optimizer http://conversion-rate-experts.com/articles/101-google-website-optimizer-tips/
  49. Startup Metrics Retention
  50. Website.com SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains Emails & Alerts System Events & Time-based Features Blogs, RSS, News Feeds Automated emails: • lifecycle emails @ +3, +7, +30d • status / “best of” weekly/monthly • “something happened” emails BUT: • make it easy to unsubscribe Tip on emails: • > 80% or more on SUBJECT LINE • < 20% or less on BODY TEXT Retention
  51. Cohort Analysis: • Distrib of Visits over Time • Rate of Decay • Effective Customer Lifecycle Retention Methods ✓ Automated Emails * Track open rate / CTR / Quantity ✓ RSS / News Feeds * Track % viewed / CTR / Quantity ✓ Widgets / Embeds * Track impressions / CTR / Quantity Retention
 How do users come back? How often?
  52. Example Retention Goals • 1 - 3+ visits per month • 20% open rate / 2% CTR • High deliverability / Low spam rating • Long customer life cycle / Low decay • Identify fanatics and cheerleaders Retention Tips • Email is simple and it works • BUT make unsubscribe easy • 80% subject line / 20% body text • ACTUALLY 99% subject line / 1% body text • Fanatics = virality + affiliate channel (bloggers?) Retention
 How do users come back? How often?
  53. Retention
 How do users come back? How often? Key Metrics to Track ✓ Source ✓ Quantity ✓ Conversions ✓ Visitor Loyalty ✓ Session Length
  54. Retention Tools Campaign Monitor / MailChimp (email newsletter software) campaignmonitor.com / mailchimp.com TriggerMail (site-centric email management) triggermail.net Litmus (email and website design testing - clients / browsers) litmusapp.com Resources 30 free HTML email templates campaignmonitor.com/resources/templates.aspx Best Practices in Writing Email Subject Lines mailchimp.com/resources/best-practices-in-writing-email-subject- lines.phtml Learning Viral: Viral Emails of Tagged.com okdork.com/2008/04/10/learning-viral-studying-taggedcom/
  55. Startup Metrics Acquisition
  56. Website.com Marketing Channels: • largest-volume (#) • lowest-cost ($) • best-performing (%) Acquisition SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains
  57. Acquisition
 Where are users coming from? Acquisition Methods ✓ SEO / SEM ✓ Blogs ✓ Email ✓ Social Media & Social Networks ✓ Domains
  58. Acquisition
 Keyword Vocabulary Top 10 - 100 words • Your Brand / Products • Customer Needs / Benefits • Competitor’s Brand / Products • Semantic Equivalents • Misspellings Things to analyze • Sources • Volume • Cost • Conversion
  59. Acquisition
 Where are users coming from? Key Metrics to Track ✓ Quantity (#) ✓ Cost ($) ✓ Conversions (%) Example
  60. Acquisition Tools Google Analytics (web analytics) google.com/analytics Google Keyword Tool (keyword research tool) adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal SEO Book Tools (SEO related tools) tools.seobook.com Resources SEO Book Blog seobook.com/blog The Social Media Manual: Read Before You Play searchengineland.com/071120-144401.php Strategies to ruthlessly acquire users andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/ 2007/04/10_obvious_stra.html
  61. Startup Metrics Referral
  62. Website.com Acquisition SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains Retention Emails & Alerts System Events & Time-based Features Blogs, RSS, News Feeds Focus on driving referrals *after* users have a “happy” experience; avg score >= 8 out of 10 Referral
  63. Referral
 How do users refer others? Referral Methods ✓ Send to Friend: Email / IM ✓ Social Media ✓ Widgets / Embeds ✓ Affiliates
  64. Referral
 Viral Growth Factor Viral Growth Factor = X * Y * Z X = % of users who invite other people Y = average # of people that they invited Z = % of users who accepted an invitation A viral growth factor > 1 means an exponential organic user acquisition.
  65. Referral Tools Gigya (social media distribution & tracking tool) gigya.com ShareThis / AddThis (sharing buttons) sharethis.com / addthis.com GetMyContacts (PHP contacts importing & invitation software) getmycontacts.com Resources Seven Ways to GO VIRAL lsvp.wordpress.com/2007/03/02/seven-ways-to-go-viral/ What’s your viral loop? Understanding the engine of adoption andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/07/whats-your- vira.html Metrics: Where Users Come From slideshare.net/guest2968b8/rockyou-snap-summit-32508
  66. Startup Metrics Revenue
  67. Website.com Revenue $$$ Biz DevAds, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, ECommerce Acquisition SEO SEM Apps & Widgets Affiliates Email PR Biz Dev Campaigns, Contests Direct, Tel, TV Social Networks Blogs Domains Retention Emails & Alerts System Events & Time-based Features Blogs, RSS, News Feeds Revenue This is the part *you* still have to figure out…
  68. Revenue
 How do you make money? Revenue Tips • Don’t Rely on AdSense (only) • Start Free => 2% “Freemium” • Subscription / Recurring transactions • Qualify your customers -> Lead generation (arbitrage) • Sell something! (physical or virtual)
  69. Revenue Resources & Tools Revenue Metrics (Andrew Chen) http://tinyurl.com/47r63a How to Create a Profitable “Freemium” Startup (Andrew Chen) http://tinyurl.com/8z9ygk 2008 Affiliate Marketing Review (Scott Jangro) http://tinyurl.com/86wak4
  70. 
 Links & Resources Additional References: • Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Robert Cialdini (book) • The Mating Mind Geoffrey Miller (book) • Putting the Fun in Functional Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso) • Futuristic Play Andrew Chen (blog) • Don’t Make Me Think Steve Krug (book) • Designing for the Social Web Joshua Porter (book, website) • Startup Lessons Learned Eric Ries (blog) • Customer Development Methodology Steve Blank (presentation, blog) • Startup-Marketing.com Sean Ellis (blog) • Understanding Comics Scott McCloud (book)

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