Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.

A quick tour of behavioural economics

1 035 vues

Publié le

Overview of behavioural economics with some simple examples.

  • Soyez le premier à commenter

A quick tour of behavioural economics

  1. 1. A quick tour of behavioural economics 10 th Feb 2009 Alison Hardy Dan Metcalfe
  2. 2. <ul><li>EVERYONE makes decisions using two interacting systems: </li></ul>Reflective Fast Effortless Automatic + System 1 Automatic Slow Sophisticated Effort System 2 Loved by policy people Frequently Ignored by policy people
  3. 3. <ul><li>30 years later… </li></ul><ul><li>EVERYONE… </li></ul><ul><li>Uses misleading rules of thumb (heuristics) </li></ul><ul><li>Is heavily influenced by what we think others are doing (social norms) . </li></ul><ul><li>Is heavily influenced by how choices are presented (priming) </li></ul>
  4. 4. Everyone prioritises now over later (hyperbolic discounting) misleading rules of thumb
  5. 5. Instant feedback vs. long term (misleading rules of thumb)
  6. 6. Other people’s behaviour (really) matters (Social norms)
  7. 7. Promises make a profound difference (Misleading rules of thumb)
  8. 8. “ of those who have this procedure, 90% are alive after five years” “ of those who have this procedure, 10% are dead after five years” Everyone is bad at working out risk (how choices are presented)
  9. 9. <ul><li>A test for an embarrassing disease is 90% accurate </li></ul><ul><li>On average 8 out of every 1000 people in the target population have the embarrassing disease </li></ul><ul><li>If someone receives a positive test, what is the probability that it is correct? </li></ul>Everyone is bad at working out risk (even doctors) (how choices are presented)
  10. 10. <ul><li>Most medical students answer 90% </li></ul><ul><li>Of the 8 people who have the disease the test identifies 7 . </li></ul><ul><li>Of the 992 who do not have the condition 99 will test positive . </li></ul><ul><li>106 embarrassed people, only 7 will actually have cause to be embarrassed. </li></ul><ul><li>Taking the base rate into account means the real chance of being positive is about 7%, not 90%. </li></ul>Everyone is bad at working out risk (even doctors) (how choices are presented)
  11. 11. <ul><li>Group A Is the percentage of African countries in the UN above or below 65 ? </li></ul><ul><li>average answer was 43% </li></ul><ul><li>Group B Is the percentage of African countries in the UN above or below 15 ? </li></ul><ul><li>average answer was 21% </li></ul>Arbitrary ‘anchors’ influence us strongly (priming)
  12. 12. Breaking behaviour down into small steps makes change easier (priming) “ We are likely not only to think ourselves into a way of acting, but also to act ourselves into a way of thinking“
  13. 13. So What Seems to Work? <ul><li>Forming a strong positive intention </li></ul><ul><li>Removing environmental constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Teaching skills </li></ul><ul><li>Developing positive attitudes </li></ul><ul><li>Using or changing social norms </li></ul><ul><li>A positive self-image </li></ul><ul><li>Immediate emotional rewards </li></ul><ul><li>Promoting self-efficacy </li></ul><ul><li>PS – it’s not a magic apolitical bullet http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7247470.stm </li></ul>
  14. 14. Thank you. [email_address]

×