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The funnel of participation: beyond dropout in MOOCs, informal learning and universities

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Slides for a talk at the Centre for Distance Education event, "InFocus: Learner analytics and big data", #CDEInFocus, University of London, Senate House, 10th December 2013.

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The funnel of participation: beyond dropout in MOOCs, informal learning and universities

  1. 1. The funnel of participation: Moving beyond dropout Doug Clow, Institute of Educational Technology, The Open University, UK Centre for Distance Education, University of London, 10 Dec 2013.
  2. 2. Aim • To change the way you think about dropout. With a funnel. Photo (cc) Nina Hale http://www.flickr.com/photos/94693506@N00/614751836/
  3. 3. Overview • • • • • MOOC dropout Informal learning Funnel of participation Universities Improving learning cc licensed ( BY SA ) flickr photo by Rob Sinclair: http://flickr.com/photos/rob-sinclair/6025086793/
  4. 4. Nuremberg funnel, 1902
  5. 5. Just say no! to antediluvian, ineffective, unsophisticaed epistemologies of pedagogical ontology
  6. 6. MOOC dropout
  7. 7. futurelearn.com
  8. 8. • Learning analytics on MOOCs is hard: – Technical challenges – Theoretical challenges – Philosophical challenges – Resource challenges Honeybees Apis mellifera Photo (cc) David Goehring http://www.flickr.com/photos/carbonnyc/5041997785/
  9. 9. Main findings of MOOC research 2012: •People drop out a lot •More research required 2013: •They really do drop out a lot •It’s complicated •More research arriving Photo (cc) jeroen bennink http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroenbennink/2355768494/
  10. 10. State of the art in MOOC Completion Rates Nov 2012 CCK08 PLENK2010 MITx Circuits & Electronics Coursera Software Engineerin g Registered 2,200 1,641 150,000 50,000 Completed At least 16 40-60 ‘active’ 7,157 3,500 Not Not 7% definable definable Photo (cc) Seth Tisue http://www.flickr.com/photos/tisue/254308538/ 7% Completion rate
  11. 11. MOOC Completion Rates April 2013 http://www.katyjordan.com/MOOCproject.html
  12. 12. MOOC Completion Rates December 2013 http://www.katyjordan.com/MOOCproject.html
  13. 13. Who counts to start with? • Anyone who clicked ‘enroll’? • Anyone who logged in once? • Anyone who watched ≥ one video? – Could yield >100%! Photo (cc) wales_gibbons Survival analysis
  14. 14. informal learning
  15. 15. Long tail graph (cc) Chris Anderson http://www.longtail.com/about.html
  16. 16. it’s not a power law
  17. 17.   iSpot Visits 1,100,000 275,000 30,000 390,000 (35%) 165,000 (60%) 15,500 (52%) Registrations 21,000 (5%) 5,239 (3%) 1,429 (9%) Contributors 9,000 (43%) 1,750 (33%) 198 (14%) Unique visitors Cloudworks Data from respective site launch to 7 November 2012 openED
  18. 18.   iSpot Visits 1,100,000 275,000 30,000 390,000 (35%) 165,000 (60%) 15,500 (52%) Registrations 21,000 (5%) 5,239 (3%) 1,429 (9%) Contributors 9,000 (43%) 1,750 (33%) 198 (14%) Unique visitors Cloudworks Data from respective site launch to 7 November 2012 openED
  19. 19. the funnel of participation
  20. 20. Awareness Interest Desire the marketing funnel Purchase
  21. 21. Awareness Registration Activity the funnel of participation Progress
  22. 22. funnel of participation = steep drop off from one stage to the next + highly unequal participation pattern
  23. 23. universities
  24. 24. Distance / Elite Mass open / university university online university Representative completion rate ~ 90% ~ 60% ~ 35% MOOCs < 15% = 1 in 7bn for 12 Photo (cc) Walt Hubis http://www.flickr.com/photos/walthubis/4346378552/
  25. 25. making things better
  26. 26. Put your thinking funnel on • Think less about total dropout • Think more about why participation reduces at each stage • Think about patterns of participation • Benchmark whether it’s a problem Photo (cc) Tom Bayly http://www.flickr.com/photos/tombayly13/6006166585/
  27. 27. What is to be done • Pour more in the top • Widen the funnel at each point – Expectations – Motivation – Pinch points – Roadblocks – Interventions • Put better in the top – Right person, right course cc licensed ( BY ) flickr photo by Steve Dunleavy: http://flickr.com/photos/stevedunleavy/5142841381/
  28. 28. Look at the data ... … as a whole. “retention and progression data, viewed in isolation, have limited value as measures of student success in the first year” – QAA. cc licensed ( BY ) flickr photo by Klearchos Kapoutsis: http://flickr.com/photos/klearchos/3601801484/
  29. 29. Doug Clow @dougclow doug.clow@open.ac.uk dougclow.org/mooc-funnel This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License
  30. 30. cc licensed ( BY ) flickr photo by David Goehring: http://flickr.com/photos/carbonnyc/33413040/
  31. 31. Ng, Koller, Ko and Chen (2013. http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/retention-and-intention-massive-open-online-courses-depth-0
  32. 32. funnel of participation = steep drop off from one stage to the next + highly unequal participation pattern
  33. 33. “We have a lousy product” – Sebastian Thrun, Udacity CEO, Nov 14, 2013 http://www.fastcompany.com/3021473/udacity-sebastian-thrun-uphill-climb Photo (c) Fast Company & Inc 2013 Mansueto Ventures, LLC.
  34. 34. • • • • • • http://www.open-ed.eu Free, open, online, OER, CC BY-SA Seven EU partners Three presentations, 2009-2012 Joomla, email, IRC, Elluminate Explored business models, found none

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