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demand-side
The New Zealand energy
        story  ^
   Sea Rotmann and Janet
        Stephenson
NZ energy supply (1 slide only!)
             • 61% of Total Primary
               Energy Supply is non-
               renewable (2011)* (2nd lowest
                in OECD after Iceland)


             • 77% of electricity from
               renewable sources (2011)*
                (3rd highest in OECD)


             • World’s largest renewable
               energy potential?


             *MED 2012 NZ Energy Data File
Strategy structure

           New Zealand energy strategy
                         This strategy retains the four priorities and twelve areas of focus
                         proposed in the draft strategy. These are intended to support
                         New Zealand to make the most of its energy potential.
                         The structure of the strategy is outlined in the following diagram.
                         Note that some areas of focus relate to more than one priority,
                         but for convenience are placed under one priority.

                                                                                                  AREAS OF FOCUS

                                                                                                    3
                                                                                            Embrace new energy
                                                                                                                                      4
                                                                                 2             technologies
                                                                        Develop renewable                                Competitive energy markets
                                                                         energy resources                                  deliver value for money
                                                                                                        PRIORITIES
                                                                    1
                                                                                                                                                         5
- 90% renewables by 2025               Develop petroleum and
                                                                        Develop                                                                  Oil security
                                        mineral fuel resources
- 55PJ energy savings by 2015                                          resources
                                                                                                                        Secure and
                                                                                                                                                and transport

- 10% energy consumption reduction                                                                                      affordable
                                                                                  GOAL                                    energy
per staff member in the public service 12                                                                                                                    6
                                                                             Make the most
(cf 2008/09)                          Reduce energy-
                                    related greenhouse                        of our energy
                                                                                                                                                  Reliable electricity
                                                            Environmental                                                                               supply
- Extend MEPS/MEPL                     gas emissions         responsibility
                                                                                potential

                                                                   11
                                                             Best practice in                                                                        7
                                                             environmental                                Efficient use
                                                                                                                                            Better consumer
                                                              management                                   of energy
                                                                                                                                          information to inform
                                                           for energy projects
                                                                                                                                             energy choices
                                                                                                                                  8
                                                                                      10                                  Enhance business
                                                                              Warm, dry, energy                         competitiveness through
                                                                                                            9
                                                                               efficient homes                              energy efficiency
                                                                                                   An energy efficient
                                                                                                    transport system




                          Balancing risks, constraints and opportunities
New Zealand energy -
    domestic policies overview

•   The Government takes the view that while we are
    going to require fossil fuels for the foreseeable
    future, there are actions we can take now to reduce
    our dependence on oil and facilitate a transition to
    alternative sources of energy.

•   These actions include:
-   New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme
-   Encouraging entry of biofuels and electric vehicles
         to the NZ market
-   Investment in public transport infrastructure; and
-   The Petroleum Action Plan




Ministry of Economic Development 2011
New Zealand oil & petroleum




Ministry of Economic Development 2011
ENERGY USE IN NZ
What types of energy are used?




               MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 11
What types of energy are used?




               MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 11
What types of energy are used?




               MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 11
What is it used for?




          MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 14
What is it used for?




          MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 14
How is energy use trending?




          Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
How is energy use trending?




          Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
How is energy use trending?




          Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
How is energy use trending?




                                         0.5% increase
                                         in demand in
                                         2011




          Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
How is energy use trending?

    21% improvement in
    energy intensity since
    1990 (but EE
    improvement is well
    below OECD average)


                                                 0.5% increase
                                                 in demand in
                                                 2011




                  Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
ELECTRICITY USE IN NZ
Electricity consumption by sector




                MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 105
Electricity prices rising
                              And a 4.4%
                              residential price
                              rise in 2012




            MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 135
Electricity demand flattening?




               MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 119
Electricity demand flattening?




               MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 119
260 MW on hold
• Meridian Energy is canning its planned
  North Bank Hydro Project on the
  Waitaki River for the foreseeable
  future, saying it is uneconomic in the
  current flat electricity market.
• "Like other generators we recognise
  that the demand outlook for the next
  five years is probably flat to slightly
  declining," chief executive Mark Binns
  said in a statement.
NZ ENERGY BEHAVIOUR IN
       CONTEXT
Low household energy use per
          person
Low household energy use per
          person
Low % of energy spent on space heating




                            IEA Scoreboard 2009
                            p97
Low % of energy spent on space heating




                            IEA Scoreboard 2009
                            p97
Low % of energy spent on space heating




                            IEA Scoreboard 2009
                            p97
High energy use per passenger-km




                         IEA Scoreboard 2009
High transport energy use as % of total
          household energy




               Compiled from IEA figures (2009) by Gerry Carrington
High transport energy use as % of total
              household energy




• 0.73 vehicles per
  capita (MOT series
  data)
• 8th highest in
  world (World Bank
                       Compiled from IEA figures (2009) by Gerry Carrington
  indicators 2010)
DEMAND-SIDE INITIATIVES
Transpower – demand response
• Action taken by
  consumers to reduce
  net demand in
  response to (usually) a
  price signal
• Pilot with large users
  from 2008, now beta
  testing
• Medium term target
  100MW in upper North
  Island
• Savings in new
  generation & grid
  capacity
Energy companies - smarter
             meters
• Increasing
  installations by
  energy companies
• Improve their
  knowledge of
  customers’ use
  patterns
• Benefits for
  customers less clear
  so far
Powerswitch

                         www.powerswitch.org.nz




Consumer NZ (independent body) with support from
the Ministry of Consumer Affairs
                                      MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 123
Government demand-side
       initiatives




                     MEPS
Government demand-side
       initiatives




                     MEPS
Government demand-side
       initiatives




                     MEPS
Government demand-side
       initiatives




                     MEPS
Government demand-side
       initiatives




                     MEPS
Council & community action
Energy use in homes & businesses




Energy use in transport
DEMAND-SIDE ISSUES
Transport inefficiency, car reliance &
     transport-related GHG emissions




44% of
emissions in
2009




          NZ Government (2011) NZ Energy Strategy 2011-2021, p9
NZTA 2012
NZTA 2012
NZTA 2012
NZTA 2012
NZTA 2012
Poverty & energy use (~25% of hh)




Household income $55,000 pa   Energy bill $2,700 pa median
median
Issues for this cluster
• Housing quality, damp, poor
  insulation, inefficient heating devices
• Energy poverty, health issues
• Poll* on NZers financial concerns: 51%
  said electricity bills of most concern
  (more than rates, food, petrol, house
  prices)
*Fairfax NZ, n=600, Jan 2013
Wealth & energy use (~20% of hh)




Household income $85,000 pa   Energy bill $4,000 pa
median                        median
Issues for this cluster
• Large houses, many appliances
• Highest energy use
• Little attention to efficiency or
  conservation
• Can afford action, but don’t take it
Grid management issues

• Increasing renewable
  & distributed
  generation
• Feed-in to grid from
  household PV
• Electric vehicles in
  due course?
DSM in policy
• Low visibility of demand side in govt
  priorities
• Lack of govt action to support targets,
  e.g. business efficiency, home energy
  advice
• Poor funding and profile for EECA,
  dislocation in relation to supply side
Where would we like to be?
• fast followers and adopters of best
  practice?
• leading in renewable electricity?
• improve housing stock and social norm
  around warmth and comfort?
• but don’t go too far (like eg Norway)
• less fuel poverty, more energy security
• more involvement from citizens (make
  energy visible)?
Where do you think we should be?

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The New Zealand energy story

  • 1. demand-side The New Zealand energy story ^ Sea Rotmann and Janet Stephenson
  • 2. NZ energy supply (1 slide only!) • 61% of Total Primary Energy Supply is non- renewable (2011)* (2nd lowest in OECD after Iceland) • 77% of electricity from renewable sources (2011)* (3rd highest in OECD) • World’s largest renewable energy potential? *MED 2012 NZ Energy Data File
  • 3. Strategy structure New Zealand energy strategy This strategy retains the four priorities and twelve areas of focus proposed in the draft strategy. These are intended to support New Zealand to make the most of its energy potential. The structure of the strategy is outlined in the following diagram. Note that some areas of focus relate to more than one priority, but for convenience are placed under one priority. AREAS OF FOCUS 3 Embrace new energy 4 2 technologies Develop renewable Competitive energy markets energy resources deliver value for money PRIORITIES 1 5 - 90% renewables by 2025 Develop petroleum and Develop Oil security mineral fuel resources - 55PJ energy savings by 2015 resources Secure and and transport - 10% energy consumption reduction affordable GOAL energy per staff member in the public service 12 6 Make the most (cf 2008/09) Reduce energy- related greenhouse of our energy Reliable electricity Environmental supply - Extend MEPS/MEPL gas emissions responsibility potential 11 Best practice in 7 environmental Efficient use Better consumer management of energy information to inform for energy projects energy choices 8 10 Enhance business Warm, dry, energy competitiveness through 9 efficient homes energy efficiency An energy efficient transport system Balancing risks, constraints and opportunities
  • 4. New Zealand energy - domestic policies overview • The Government takes the view that while we are going to require fossil fuels for the foreseeable future, there are actions we can take now to reduce our dependence on oil and facilitate a transition to alternative sources of energy. • These actions include: - New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme - Encouraging entry of biofuels and electric vehicles to the NZ market - Investment in public transport infrastructure; and - The Petroleum Action Plan Ministry of Economic Development 2011
  • 5. New Zealand oil & petroleum Ministry of Economic Development 2011
  • 7. What types of energy are used? MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 11
  • 8. What types of energy are used? MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 11
  • 9. What types of energy are used? MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 11
  • 10. What is it used for? MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 14
  • 11. What is it used for? MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 14
  • 12. How is energy use trending? Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
  • 13. How is energy use trending? Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
  • 14. How is energy use trending? Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
  • 15. How is energy use trending? 0.5% increase in demand in 2011 Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
  • 16. How is energy use trending? 21% improvement in energy intensity since 1990 (but EE improvement is well below OECD average) 0.5% increase in demand in 2011 Graph: MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 17
  • 18. Electricity consumption by sector MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 105
  • 19. Electricity prices rising And a 4.4% residential price rise in 2012 MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 135
  • 20. Electricity demand flattening? MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 119
  • 21. Electricity demand flattening? MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 119
  • 22. 260 MW on hold • Meridian Energy is canning its planned North Bank Hydro Project on the Waitaki River for the foreseeable future, saying it is uneconomic in the current flat electricity market. • "Like other generators we recognise that the demand outlook for the next five years is probably flat to slightly declining," chief executive Mark Binns said in a statement.
  • 23. NZ ENERGY BEHAVIOUR IN CONTEXT
  • 24. Low household energy use per person
  • 25. Low household energy use per person
  • 26. Low % of energy spent on space heating IEA Scoreboard 2009 p97
  • 27. Low % of energy spent on space heating IEA Scoreboard 2009 p97
  • 28. Low % of energy spent on space heating IEA Scoreboard 2009 p97
  • 29. High energy use per passenger-km IEA Scoreboard 2009
  • 30. High transport energy use as % of total household energy Compiled from IEA figures (2009) by Gerry Carrington
  • 31. High transport energy use as % of total household energy • 0.73 vehicles per capita (MOT series data) • 8th highest in world (World Bank Compiled from IEA figures (2009) by Gerry Carrington indicators 2010)
  • 33. Transpower – demand response • Action taken by consumers to reduce net demand in response to (usually) a price signal • Pilot with large users from 2008, now beta testing • Medium term target 100MW in upper North Island • Savings in new generation & grid capacity
  • 34. Energy companies - smarter meters • Increasing installations by energy companies • Improve their knowledge of customers’ use patterns • Benefits for customers less clear so far
  • 35. Powerswitch www.powerswitch.org.nz Consumer NZ (independent body) with support from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs MED (2012) NZ Energy Data File p 123
  • 36. Government demand-side initiatives MEPS
  • 37. Government demand-side initiatives MEPS
  • 38. Government demand-side initiatives MEPS
  • 39. Government demand-side initiatives MEPS
  • 40. Government demand-side initiatives MEPS
  • 41. Council & community action Energy use in homes & businesses Energy use in transport
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. Transport inefficiency, car reliance & transport-related GHG emissions 44% of emissions in 2009 NZ Government (2011) NZ Energy Strategy 2011-2021, p9
  • 52. Poverty & energy use (~25% of hh) Household income $55,000 pa Energy bill $2,700 pa median median
  • 53. Issues for this cluster • Housing quality, damp, poor insulation, inefficient heating devices • Energy poverty, health issues • Poll* on NZers financial concerns: 51% said electricity bills of most concern (more than rates, food, petrol, house prices) *Fairfax NZ, n=600, Jan 2013
  • 54. Wealth & energy use (~20% of hh) Household income $85,000 pa Energy bill $4,000 pa median median
  • 55. Issues for this cluster • Large houses, many appliances • Highest energy use • Little attention to efficiency or conservation • Can afford action, but don’t take it
  • 56. Grid management issues • Increasing renewable & distributed generation • Feed-in to grid from household PV • Electric vehicles in due course?
  • 57. DSM in policy • Low visibility of demand side in govt priorities • Lack of govt action to support targets, e.g. business efficiency, home energy advice • Poor funding and profile for EECA, dislocation in relation to supply side
  • 58. Where would we like to be? • fast followers and adopters of best practice? • leading in renewable electricity? • improve housing stock and social norm around warmth and comfort? • but don’t go too far (like eg Norway) • less fuel poverty, more energy security • more involvement from citizens (make energy visible)?
  • 59. Where do you think we should be?