3. Black Knight
8.6%
6.5%
8.5% 8.7%
12.5%
11.4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
4.4%
5.2% 5.5%
6.4%
4.8% 4.7%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
The 6 years leading up
to the housing crash
The last 6 years
Annual Home Price Appreciation
5. Total Home Equity Cashed Out
by Refinance in Billions
Year Dollars
2005 $263B
2006 $321B
2007 $240B
Total $824B
Year Dollars
2017 $71B
2018 $87B
2019 $74B*
Total $232B
Then… Now…
Freddie Mac
*Using the first 3 quarter estimates from Freddie Mac and estimating $20B for the 4th quarter
6. Percent of the median income needed
to purchase the median-priced home
21.2%
25.4%
14.8%
1985-2000 2006 TODAY
Zillow & NAR
9. “What 9/11 has in common with what is happening
today is that this shock has also generated fear, angst
and anxiety among the general public. People avoided
crowds then as they believed another terrorist attack
was coming and are acting the same today to avoid
getting sick. The same parts of the economy are
under pressure ─ airlines, leisure, hospitality,
restaurants, entertainment ─ consumer discretionary
services in general.”
David Rosenberg
Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.’s Chief Economist
10. -45%
8.6% 6.6% 8.5%
2000 2001 2002
S&P 500 Correction
9/2000 to 10/2002
Annual Home Price APPRECIATION
Dot.com & 9/11 Crash
Black Knight & S&P 500
12. “With the sudden economic stop, and with
many states shutting down by closing down
schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the
US economy is now in a recession (started in
March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply
in Q2 (as Goldman Sachs is forecasting).
The length of the recession will depend on
the course of the pandemic.”
Bill McBride
Calculated Risk
14. “We do not expect a repeat of the severe
recession of 2008-2009, because the virus
and oil shocks are not endemic to the
financial system but are, rather, external.
Once the virus infection rate peaks,
we expect a recovery to gain momentum
into the final quarter of the year and
especially into 2021.”
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
3/17/2020
16. Will we see a rise in the number of foreclosures?
17. The Federal Housing Administration indicated it is
enacting an “immediate foreclosure and eviction
moratorium for single family homeowners with
FHA-insured mortgages” for the next 60 days.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced it
is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to
suspend foreclosures and evictions for
“at least 60 days.”
18. Total Home Equity Cashed Out
by Refinance in Billions
Year Dollars
2005 $263B
2006 $321B
2007 $240B
Total $824B
Year Dollars
2017 $71B
2018 $87B
2019 $74B*
Total $232B
Then… Now…
Freddie Mac
*Using the first 3 quarter estimates from Freddie Mac and estimating $20B for the 4th quarter
19. National Association of Realtors
18.2
17.8
17.6
17
17.4
17.1
16.2
15.9
16.3
16.3
16.6
16.5
16.1
15.6
15.2
15.3
15.3
15.5
14.8
June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January
Payment as a
% of Income
Historic Norm
21.2%