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Keeping Current Matters slides 3.21.20
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
June
2004
June
2005
June
2006
June
2007
June
2008
June
2009
June
2010
June
2011
June
2012
June
2013
June
2014
June
2015
June
2016
June
2017
June
2018
June
2019
Today
Historic Data for the
MORTGAGE CREDIT
AVAILABILITY INDEX
(a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
MBA
Housing
Bubble
Today
Black Knight
8.6%
6.5%
8.5% 8.7%
12.5%
11.4%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
4.4%
5.2% 5.5%
6.4%
4.8% 4.7%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
The 6 years leading up
to the housing crash
The last 6 years
Annual Home Price Appreciation
NAR
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
8.2
3.1
2007 Today
Total Home Equity Cashed Out
by Refinance in Billions
Year Dollars
2005 $263B
2006 $321B
2007 $240B
Total $824B
Year Dollars
2017 $71B
2018 $87B
2019 $74B*
Total $232B
Then… Now…
Freddie Mac
*Using the first 3 quarter estimates from Freddie Mac and estimating $20B for the 4th quarter
Percent of the median income needed
to purchase the median-priced home
21.2%
25.4%
14.8%
1985-2000 2006 TODAY
Zillow & NAR
How Has the
Housing Market
Been Impacted by
Previous Stock
Market Crashes?
-51%
-4.6%
-10%
-4.1%
S&P 500 Correction
10/2007 to 3/2009
Annual Home Price DEPRECIATION
Housing & Mortgage Crash
2007 2008 2009
Black Knight & S&P 500
“What 9/11 has in common with what is happening
today is that this shock has also generated fear, angst
and anxiety among the general public. People avoided
crowds then as they believed another terrorist attack
was coming and are acting the same today to avoid
getting sick. The same parts of the economy are
under pressure ─ airlines, leisure, hospitality,
restaurants, entertainment ─ consumer discretionary
services in general.”
David Rosenberg
Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.’s Chief Economist
-45%
8.6% 6.6% 8.5%
2000 2001 2002
S&P 500 Correction
9/2000 to 10/2002
Annual Home Price APPRECIATION
Dot.com & 9/11 Crash
Black Knight & S&P 500
Recession DOES NOT
Equal Housing Crisis
“With the sudden economic stop, and with
many states shutting down by closing down
schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the
US economy is now in a recession (started in
March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply
in Q2 (as Goldman Sachs is forecasting).
The length of the recession will depend on
the course of the pandemic.”
Bill McBride
Calculated Risk
-0.2%
-5%
3% 4%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
Quarter 3 Quarter 4
“…with further strong gains in early 2021.”
Goldman Sachs GDP Forecast
on 3/17/2020
Quarter 2Quarter 1
“We do not expect a repeat of the severe
recession of 2008-2009, because the virus
and oil shocks are not endemic to the
financial system but are, rather, external.
Once the virus infection rate peaks,
we expect a recovery to gain momentum
into the final quarter of the year and
especially into 2021.”
Wells Fargo Investment Institute
3/17/2020
6.1%
3.5%
-1.9%
6.6%
-19.7%
1980 1981 2001
HOME PRICE CHANGE
During Last 5 Recessions
1991 2008
CoreLogic National Home Price Index
Will we see a rise in the number of foreclosures?
The Federal Housing Administration indicated it is
enacting an “immediate foreclosure and eviction
moratorium for single family homeowners with
FHA-insured mortgages” for the next 60 days.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced it
is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to
suspend foreclosures and evictions for
“at least 60 days.”
Total Home Equity Cashed Out
by Refinance in Billions
Year Dollars
2005 $263B
2006 $321B
2007 $240B
Total $824B
Year Dollars
2017 $71B
2018 $87B
2019 $74B*
Total $232B
Then… Now…
Freddie Mac
*Using the first 3 quarter estimates from Freddie Mac and estimating $20B for the 4th quarter
National Association of Realtors
18.2
17.8
17.6
17
17.4
17.1
16.2
15.9
16.3
16.3
16.6
16.5
16.1
15.6
15.2
15.3
15.3
15.5
14.8
June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January
Payment as a
% of Income
Historic Norm
21.2%
KeepingCurrentMatters.com/Coronavirus
Keeping Current Matters slides 3.21.20

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Keeping Current Matters slides 3.21.20

  • 3. Black Knight 8.6% 6.5% 8.5% 8.7% 12.5% 11.4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 4.4% 5.2% 5.5% 6.4% 4.8% 4.7% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 The 6 years leading up to the housing crash The last 6 years Annual Home Price Appreciation
  • 4. NAR Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 8.2 3.1 2007 Today
  • 5. Total Home Equity Cashed Out by Refinance in Billions Year Dollars 2005 $263B 2006 $321B 2007 $240B Total $824B Year Dollars 2017 $71B 2018 $87B 2019 $74B* Total $232B Then… Now… Freddie Mac *Using the first 3 quarter estimates from Freddie Mac and estimating $20B for the 4th quarter
  • 6. Percent of the median income needed to purchase the median-priced home 21.2% 25.4% 14.8% 1985-2000 2006 TODAY Zillow & NAR
  • 7. How Has the Housing Market Been Impacted by Previous Stock Market Crashes?
  • 8. -51% -4.6% -10% -4.1% S&P 500 Correction 10/2007 to 3/2009 Annual Home Price DEPRECIATION Housing & Mortgage Crash 2007 2008 2009 Black Knight & S&P 500
  • 9. “What 9/11 has in common with what is happening today is that this shock has also generated fear, angst and anxiety among the general public. People avoided crowds then as they believed another terrorist attack was coming and are acting the same today to avoid getting sick. The same parts of the economy are under pressure ─ airlines, leisure, hospitality, restaurants, entertainment ─ consumer discretionary services in general.” David Rosenberg Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.’s Chief Economist
  • 10. -45% 8.6% 6.6% 8.5% 2000 2001 2002 S&P 500 Correction 9/2000 to 10/2002 Annual Home Price APPRECIATION Dot.com & 9/11 Crash Black Knight & S&P 500
  • 11. Recession DOES NOT Equal Housing Crisis
  • 12. “With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2 (as Goldman Sachs is forecasting). The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.” Bill McBride Calculated Risk
  • 13. -0.2% -5% 3% 4% -7.0% -5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% Quarter 3 Quarter 4 “…with further strong gains in early 2021.” Goldman Sachs GDP Forecast on 3/17/2020 Quarter 2Quarter 1
  • 14. “We do not expect a repeat of the severe recession of 2008-2009, because the virus and oil shocks are not endemic to the financial system but are, rather, external. Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.” Wells Fargo Investment Institute 3/17/2020
  • 15. 6.1% 3.5% -1.9% 6.6% -19.7% 1980 1981 2001 HOME PRICE CHANGE During Last 5 Recessions 1991 2008 CoreLogic National Home Price Index
  • 16. Will we see a rise in the number of foreclosures?
  • 17. The Federal Housing Administration indicated it is enacting an “immediate foreclosure and eviction moratorium for single family homeowners with FHA-insured mortgages” for the next 60 days. The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced it is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to suspend foreclosures and evictions for “at least 60 days.”
  • 18. Total Home Equity Cashed Out by Refinance in Billions Year Dollars 2005 $263B 2006 $321B 2007 $240B Total $824B Year Dollars 2017 $71B 2018 $87B 2019 $74B* Total $232B Then… Now… Freddie Mac *Using the first 3 quarter estimates from Freddie Mac and estimating $20B for the 4th quarter
  • 19. National Association of Realtors 18.2 17.8 17.6 17 17.4 17.1 16.2 15.9 16.3 16.3 16.6 16.5 16.1 15.6 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.5 14.8 June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January Payment as a % of Income Historic Norm 21.2%

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/research-and-economics/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index
  2. https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-december-2019-mortgage-monitor-2/
  3. nar.realtor
  4. http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2018-09-06-Mortgage-Burden-Exceeds-Historic-Levels-in-10-of-the-Largest-U-S-Markets https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/hai-01-2020-housing-affordability-index-2020-03-13.pdf
  5. https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-december-2019-mortgage-monitor-2/
  6. https://business.financialpost.com/investing/david-rosenberg-stop-looking-to-2008-this-crisis-is-more-like-9-11
  7. https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-december-2019-mortgage-monitor-2/
  8. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/sunday-night-futures-limit-down.html
  9. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/sunday-night-futures-limit-down.html
  10. https://www.wellsfargo.com/investment-institute/ia-quarter-world-stood-still/
  11. https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/03/housing-recessions-and-recoveries.aspx
  12. https://www.hud.gov/press/press_releases_media_advisories/HUD_No_20_042 https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Suspends-Foreclosures-and-Evictions-for-Enterprise-Backed-Mortgages.aspx
  13. https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/housing-affordability-in-december-2019