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The Future of Media - June 2011
1. The Future of Media
jo@dearmedia.be
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
2. • a digital consulting company, working for
European clients
• founded in 2009 by Jo Caudron
• our mission is to help find a new balance
between the certainties of your traditional
business and the opportunities of innovations
in (digital) media
• our scope is everything in the digital space, with
focus on social, mobile, tablets, location,
connected TV, new radio, ...
• We work for large European clients
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
3. ... watch (trends)
... develop digital strategies
... conceptualize great ideas
... define functional details
... implement Social Media teams & ownerships
... roll-out tools for monitoring & conversation
We ... ... introduce rules, policies & guidelines
... train & coach your teams
... help you find implementation partners
... follow-up project development
... start, monitor & manage the conversation for you
... start again
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
4. • Founding Partner of Dear Media (www.dearmedia.be)
• Active in interactive since 1993 as (co-)founder of Dear Media, ONE
Agency, theOriginals, tvAgency, xCA, The Reference, ...)
• Media thinker, innovator & strategist
• Interested in all things digital, social & mobile, new media & connected
TV
• Consultant, Entrepreneur, Speaker, Writer
• Vice-President IAB Belgium
• Contact
• jo@dearmedia.be
Jo • http://jocaudron.me (for the personal stuff)
Caudron • http://www.linkedin.com/in/jocaudron (for the business stuff)
• www.twitter.com/jcaudron (for my technology newsfeed)
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
6. To get this started...
• Who is using? • Who is using?
- Twitter - an iPhone
- Facebook, Netlog, ... - an Android
- LinkedIn, Plaxo - a Blackberry
- Email - a Nokia, Samsung, Sony
- LBS Ericsson, ...
- Augmented Reality - a tablet (iPad 1, iPad 2,
Android, ...)
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
9. Drivers of change
Content choice
the power of many
Social Media advertising Clutter
Convenience, Richness & Control poor Creativity
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
12. YouTube TOP 20 most viewed
= 11.000.000.000 minutes
= 280.000.000 episodes of “Lost”
+200.000 new movies are added DAILY
Source: http://mediatedcultures.net/ksudigg/?p=163
And this is just YouTube ...
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
14. Drivers of change
advertising Clutter
On average we are exposed to over 3.000 brand impressions each day!
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
15. Drivers of change
poor Creativity
interruption marketing, 30”,
expandables, splash screens, ...
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
16. Drivers of change
poor Creativity
interruption marketing, 30”,
expandables, splash screens, ...
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
17. Drivers of change
Convenience, Richness & Control
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
18. Drivers of change
Media are losing their
traditional “push” power.
Convenience, Richness & Control
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
19. Drivers of change
Viewers are taking
Media are losing their control, deciding
traditional “push” power. what they want to
watch, when, and
how.
Convenience, Richness & Control
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
20. Drivers of change
Viewers are taking
Media are losing their control, deciding
traditional “push” power. what they want to
watch, when, and
how.
Pull strategy
• On demand
• Timeshifting
• Ad skipping
• Online content
Convenience, Richness & Control • Games
• User generated content
• …
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
21. Drivers of change
TIMESHIFTING
— Cfr. Tivo, Telenet Flexview, ...
— Allowing to skip ads
— And users skip ads more than you like
— User behavior is shifting towards more
control (what, how, when). They are
just waiting for DVR’s.
— And this can hurt TV business !
Convenience, Richness & Control
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
22. Drivers of change
PLACE SHIFTING
Convenience, Richness & Control
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
23. Drivers of change
AUTHORITY SHIFTING
the power of many
Social Media
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
24. Drivers of change
AUTHORITY SHIFTING
the power of many
Social Media
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
25. Drivers of change
Fragmentation
Content choice
the power of many
Social Media advertising Clutter
Convenience, Richness & Control poor Creativity
Irritation
Shift of control and ownership
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
27. SOCIAL OBJECT
The Flower is the (potential) social
object
The mainstream media are the smell of
the flower
The bee is “spreading the word” and
has the real power
Level I: Sites, blogs, feeds, widgets
Level II: Closed networks (Facebook, Netlog, ...)
Level III: Through individuals (e-mail, Twitter, ...)
Media 2.0
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
28. The Flower is the (potential) social
object
The mainstream media are the smell of
the flower
The bee is “spreading the word” and
has the real power
Level I: Sites, blogs, feeds, widgets
Level II: Closed networks (Facebook, Netlog, ...)
Level III: Through individuals (e-mail, Twitter, ...)
Media 2.0
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
30. June 2011: Facebook has +670.000.000 members
They are planning to reach 1 billion members by 2012
That’s +700K users EVERY DAY!
There are 4.5 million users in Belgium.
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
31. Today
300.000.000 people on Twitter
Jan 2009 Jan 2010
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
34. Main access to social media will be
via mobile devices.
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
35. 300
225
In Q4 2010 7,3% of all PC’s sold globally, were iPads ...
(source: IDC). 150
By 2014 almost 500.000.000 tablets will be sold.
75
Apple will continue to dominate the market for the next
coming years. 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
36. The Future of Computing is NOT on PC’s
Shift towards tablets, smartphones, ...?
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
38. Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services
Content Curation
Bottom-up
Decentralized (user-driven) The Life Web (micro-blogging)
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs
Top-down Portals
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure
Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
39. Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services
Content Curation
Bottom-up
Decentralized (user-driven) The Life Web (micro-blogging)
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs
Top-down Portals
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure
Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
40. Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services
Content Curation
Bottom-up
Decentralized (user-driven) The Life Web (micro-blogging)
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs
Top-down Portals
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure
Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
41. Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services
Content Curation
Bottom-up
Decentralized (user-driven) The Life Web (micro-blogging)
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs
Top-down Portals
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure
Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
42. Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services
Content Curation
Bottom-up
Decentralized (user-driven) The Life Web (micro-blogging)
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs
Top-down Portals
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure
Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
43. Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services
Content Curation
Bottom-up
Decentralized (user-driven) The Life Web (micro-blogging)
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs
Top-down Portals
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure
Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
44. Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services
Content Curation
Bottom-up
Decentralized (user-driven) The Life Web (micro-blogging)
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs
Top-down Portals
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure
Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
45. Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services
+Tag
Content Curation
Bottom-up Evolution of Navigation
Decentralized (user-driven) The +Ask (micro-blogging)
Life Web
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of +Search
Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs
Top-down Portals
Browse
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure
Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
47. What might impact TV? Timeshifting!
How big is time shifted
viewing today?
• 2,5% (VRT)
• 20% (VTM telenovelas)-
30%
• 10% (RTL)
It IS growing.
How much loss of advertising
can commercial TV digest?
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
51. The future of TV might not be on TV
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
52. What might impact TV? The People!
They don’t watch less TV.
But they are changing the very
nature of the DNA of (commercial)
TV.
They might even pay for TV, but
maybe not to you.
They might stay loyal to TV-brands,
(near) linear TV, ...
but if they run away from your
advertising, pay-TV, ... you still have
an issue.
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
53. What might impact TV? The People!
Don’t believe me?
Watch this...
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
54. What might impact TV? The People!
Transcript
- Shat are you doing?
- I am watching...
- Why do you rather watch on
the iPad instead of on TV?
- Because I can choose on this and
because there is more
- And can’t you choose on TV?
- Yes, but it’s not on the iPad
- And you prefer it on the iPad?
Don’t believe me?
Watch this... - Yes...
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
62. It’s not going well...
“Jo, read and feel the horror”
(someone at a very big record label)
Bob Lefsetz
talking on Lady GaGa and the 0,99 sales on
Amazon...
“You can't argue about the price. "Born This Way"
was available at Amazon for 99 cents. And then, just
in case you didn't catch it the first time around, they
repeated the promotion a couple of days later. Only
400,000 odd people took Amazon up on this offer.
Meaning for many, they just don't want to hear GaGa
AT ANY PRICE!”
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
64. Why are companies NOT using SM?
Is this the right way to go?
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
65. Why are companies NOT using SM?
• Lack of information => ignorance
• Ignorance => fear
• No idea of the current size, growth,
impact, potential, value, ...
• Decision makers are often too old
themselves to understand the importance
of this rapid change
• But they are locking out reality and the
future of online communication!
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
66. Why Allow Social Media?
• Social Media are changing the way we
- live
- work
- get informed
- ...
• Do you want to deprive your staff access to phone, internet or mail?
• If not:
- why limit access to a highly efficient and powerful source of communication
and information?
- why push your staff into “stealth mode”. They will do it anyway!
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
68. 20 minutes in Egypt (without internet...)
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
69. So, can you simply ignore Social Media?
• No you can’t
• People want to use it anyway
• You need it for your business (marketing,
communication, HR, service & support,
R&D, ...)
• So
- allow access to Social Media
- apply rules, policies and guidelines
- train your people
If the US military can do it, everyone can!
- make them aware of the impact and their
responsibility
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
70. So, can you simply ignore Social Media?
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
80. First the bad news...
• Study from Forrester and GSI Commerce
• Based on data by online retailers
• Conclusions
- less than 2% of orders were the result of shoppers coming
from a social network
- Buying things from retailers is maybe 10th on the list of
things they want to do on Facebook
- somewhat effective for distributing news about short-term
deals
• So what did we expect? Facebook as the Walhalla for
advertising, selling, ...?
• People do not come to Facebook to see YOU, let alone to
buy from you...
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
81. Next the good news
• Social & mobile are not about short-term advertising
• Social & mobile are is about building long-term relationships
• Social & mobile are about translating the trust-based relationship
between people, into positive value for your brands and products
- subtle
- recommendations based
• Social & mobile are about connecting to your audience, listening to the
market, responding to questions, helping them with their problems
• Social & mobile are all about brand utility
• (r)etailers that can master this, will benefit from social and mobile media
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
89. Want to be ready?
Change your view on
advertising
Start using
social networks Get a decent
Get on Twitter
smartphone
Get a tablet
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
90. Want to be ready?
Get a Plan
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
91. Start
1 AWARENESS
Strategy & Concepts
Mobile Strategy
2 DIGITAL STRATEGY
Social Media Strategy
Inbound (listen) /Outbound (talk)
3 CONCEPTS Destinations / Streams
Fix / Mobile
FUNCTIONAL SOCIAL MEDIA PLAN
The Plan
REQUIREMENTS - people & teams
(site, portal, apps,
Details
- tools (monitoring &
4 channels, ...) conversation)
- policies & guidelines
- training & coaching
RFP ASSISTANCE
Next
5 DEVELOPMENT
follow-up
CONVERSATION MNGT
day2day, guidance, follow-up
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
92. Things to take away
Everything is becoming digital, so is your business, whatever it is
Social is the next logical step in the path of digital evolution
The future of the internet and social will be mobile
The future of mobile will be everything
You need a plan NOW to start dealing with this
Actually, you don’t need a plan, you need to plan (continuously)
Embrace the future now, but don’t overdo it ;-)
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
93. Beware of Macro-Myopia*
*the trend to overestimate the impact of change on the short term
and to underestimate the impact of change on the long term.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you ;-)
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
94. FireStarter,
bringing
Social into
your
Company
vrijdag 24 juni 2011
95. The Future of Media
jo@dearmedia.be
vrijdag 24 juni 2011