The Future of Media - June 2011

The Future of Media

jo@dearmedia.be

vrijdag 24 juni 2011

• a digital consulting company, working for
European clients
• founded in 2009 by Jo Caudron
• our mission is to help find a new balance
between the certainties of your traditional
business and the opportunities of innovations
in (digital) media
• our scope is everything in the digital space, with
focus on social, mobile, tablets, location,
connected TV, new radio, ...
• We work for large European clients


... watch (trends)
... develop digital strategies
... conceptualize great ideas
... define functional details
... implement Social Media teams & ownerships
... roll-out tools for monitoring & conversation
We ... ... introduce rules, policies & guidelines
... train & coach your teams
... help you find implementation partners
... follow-up project development
... start, monitor & manage the conversation for you
... start again

• Founding Partner of Dear Media (www.dearmedia.be)
• Active in interactive since 1993 as (co-)founder of Dear Media, ONE
Agency, theOriginals, tvAgency, xCA, The Reference, ...)
• Media thinker, innovator & strategist
• Interested in all things digital, social & mobile, new media & connected
TV
• Consultant, Entrepreneur, Speaker, Writer
• Vice-President IAB Belgium
• Contact
• jo@dearmedia.be
Jo • http://jocaudron.me (for the personal stuff)
Caudron • http://www.linkedin.com/in/jocaudron (for the business stuff)
• www.twitter.com/jcaudron (for my technology newsfeed)


twitter.com/jcaudron


To get this started...
• Who is using? • Who is using?
- Twitter - an iPhone
- Facebook, Netlog, ... - an Android
- LinkedIn, Plaxo - a Blackberry
- Email - a Nokia, Samsung, Sony
- LBS Ericsson, ...
- Augmented Reality - a tablet (iPad 1, iPad 2,
Android, ...)


Don’t believe anything
you will hear in the
following presentation!


The Perfect Storm
Media Are Changing


Drivers of change

Content choice

the power of many
Social Media advertising Clutter

Convenience, Richness & Control poor Creativity


Drivers of change

Content choice


YouTube TOP 20 most viewed
= 11.000.000.000 minutes
= 280.000.000 episodes of “Lost”

+200.000 new movies are added DAILY

Source: http://mediatedcultures.net/ksudigg/?p=163

And this is just YouTube ...


Drivers of change

advertising Clutter


Drivers of change

advertising Clutter

On average we are exposed to over 3.000 brand impressions each day!


Drivers of change

poor Creativity

interruption marketing, 30”,
expandables, splash screens, ...


Drivers of change

Convenience, Richness & Control


Drivers of change

Media are losing their
traditional “push” power.



Drivers of change

Viewers are taking

Media are losing their control, deciding

traditional “push” power. what they want to
watch, when, and

how.



Drivers of change

Viewers are taking

Media are losing their control, deciding

traditional “push” power. what they want to
watch, when, and

how.
Pull strategy
• On demand
• Timeshifting
• Ad skipping
• Online content

Convenience, Richness & Control • Games
• User generated content
• …


Drivers of change
TIMESHIFTING

— Cfr. Tivo, Telenet Flexview, ...

— Allowing to skip ads
— And users skip ads more than you like

— User behavior is shifting towards more
control (what, how, when). They are
just waiting for DVR’s.
— And this can hurt TV business !



Drivers of change
PLACE SHIFTING



Drivers of change

AUTHORITY SHIFTING

the power of many
Social Media


Drivers of change
Fragmentation

Content choice

the power of many
Social Media advertising Clutter

Convenience, Richness & Control poor Creativity

Irritation
Shift of control and ownership


Media 1.0


SOCIAL OBJECT
The Flower is the (potential) social
object

The mainstream media are the smell of
the flower

The bee is “spreading the word” and
has the real power
Level I: Sites, blogs, feeds, widgets
Level II: Closed networks (Facebook, Netlog, ...)
Level III: Through individuals (e-mail, Twitter, ...)

Media 2.0


The Flower is the (potential) social
object

The mainstream media are the smell of
the flower

The bee is “spreading the word” and
has the real power
Level I: Sites, blogs, feeds, widgets
Level II: Closed networks (Facebook, Netlog, ...)
Level III: Through individuals (e-mail, Twitter, ...)

Media 2.0


7.000.000.000

June 2011: Facebook has +670.000.000 members
They are planning to reach 1 billion members by 2012
That’s +700K users EVERY DAY!
There are 4.5 million users in Belgium.


Today

300.000.000 people on Twitter

Jan 2009 Jan 2010


+100 million members in +200 countries


Main access to social media will be
via mobile devices.


300

225
In Q4 2010 7,3% of all PC’s sold globally, were iPads ...
(source: IDC). 150

By 2014 almost 500.000.000 tablets will be sold.
75
Apple will continue to dominate the market for the next
coming years. 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


The Future of Computing is NOT on PC’s

Shift towards tablets, smartphones, ...?

Understanding the next logical step in the
digital evolution

Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services

Content Curation
Bottom-up
Decentralized (user-driven) The Life Web (micro-blogging)
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs

Top-down Portals
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure

Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open


Semantic Web
Machine-to-machine
Decentralized (machine-driven)
Artificial Intelligence Web 3.0 The Internet of Things
RFID & tagging
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting” Location Based Services
+Tag
Content Curation
Bottom-up Evolution of Navigation
Decentralized (user-driven) The +Ask (micro-blogging)
Life Web
Participative
Sharing, Tagging, “favoriting”, curation, … Web 2.0 Social Networks (Facebook, …)
Dynamic & Rich Experiences
Interaction with others
Anything, Anytime, Anyplace (mobile, …): shift of +Search
Youtube, Flickr, …
time, place and authority
Blogs

Top-down Portals
Browse
Centrally owned
Consumption-oriented Web 1.0 Sites
Static information Life Event Structure

Interactive Services
Monolithic Modular Atomic
Closed Open


So, Traditional Media are Dead?
No, but...

What might impact TV? Timeshifting!
How big is time shifted
viewing today?
• 2,5% (VRT)
• 20% (VTM telenovelas)-
30%
• 10% (RTL)
It IS growing.

How much loss of advertising
can commercial TV digest?


What might impact TV? Direct OTT Distribution!


The future of TV might not be on TV


What might impact TV? The People!
They don’t watch less TV.

But they are changing the very
nature of the DNA of (commercial)
TV.

They might even pay for TV, but
maybe not to you.

They might stay loyal to TV-brands,
(near) linear TV, ...
but if they run away from your
advertising, pay-TV, ... you still have
an issue.



Don’t believe me?
Watch this...


Transcript
- Shat are you doing?
- I am watching...
- Why do you rather watch on
the iPad instead of on TV?
- Because I can choose on this and
because there is more
- And can’t you choose on TV?
- Yes, but it’s not on the iPad
- And you prefer it on the iPad?
Don’t believe me?
Watch this... - Yes...


Will new technology help?


The future of
Magazines?


And, THEY don’t listen to radio...


Is there a future for print and offline media?


And what about the music industry?


It’s not going well...


It’s not going well...
“Jo, read and feel the horror”

(someone at a very big record label)
Bob Lefsetz
talking on Lady GaGa and the 0,99 sales on
Amazon...

“You can't argue about the price. "Born This Way"
was available at Amazon for 99 cents. And then, just
in case you didn't catch it the first time around, they
repeated the promotion a couple of days later. Only
400,000 odd people took Amazon up on this offer.
Meaning for many, they just don't want to hear GaGa
AT ANY PRICE!”


Can’t we just ignore this?

Why are companies NOT using SM?

Is this the right way to go?


Why are companies NOT using SM?
• Lack of information => ignorance
• Ignorance => fear
• No idea of the current size, growth,
impact, potential, value, ...
• Decision makers are often too old
themselves to understand the importance
of this rapid change

• But they are locking out reality and the
future of online communication!


Why Allow Social Media?
• Social Media are changing the way we
- live
- work
- get informed
- ...
• Do you want to deprive your staff access to phone, internet or mail?
• If not:
- why limit access to a highly efficient and powerful source of communication
and information?
- why push your staff into “stealth mode”. They will do it anyway!


Why Allow Social Media?


20 minutes in Egypt (without internet...)


So, can you simply ignore Social Media?
• No you can’t
• People want to use it anyway
• You need it for your business (marketing,
communication, HR, service & support,
R&D, ...)
• So
- allow access to Social Media
- apply rules, policies and guidelines
- train your people
If the US military can do it, everyone can!
- make them aware of the impact and their
responsibility


So, can you simply ignore Social Media?


Your Business and Social
Media

This is my CV
Social Media to
find people (and to
lose people)
and to keep
people


What do you
Social Media to mean, no...

find people (and to
loose people)
and the keep
people

???


Social Media to
make your
company

smarter
better connected
faster
more human


Leverage
the social graph
of your company.


Social, Mobile and Retail...
How do they add up?


First the bad news...
• Study from Forrester and GSI Commerce
• Based on data by online retailers
• Conclusions
- less than 2% of orders were the result of shoppers coming
from a social network
- Buying things from retailers is maybe 10th on the list of
things they want to do on Facebook
- somewhat effective for distributing news about short-term
deals
• So what did we expect? Facebook as the Walhalla for
advertising, selling, ...?
• People do not come to Facebook to see YOU, let alone to
buy from you...


Next the good news
• Social & mobile are not about short-term advertising
• Social & mobile are is about building long-term relationships
• Social & mobile are about translating the trust-based relationship
between people, into positive value for your brands and products
- subtle
- recommendations based
• Social & mobile are about connecting to your audience, listening to the
market, responding to questions, helping them with their problems
• Social & mobile are all about brand utility
• (r)etailers that can master this, will benefit from social and mobile media


Things to take away ...

Want to be ready?

Change your view on
advertising
Start using
social networks Get a decent
Get on Twitter
smartphone

Get a tablet

Want to be ready?

Get a Plan


Start
1 AWARENESS
Strategy & Concepts

Mobile Strategy
2 DIGITAL STRATEGY
Social Media Strategy

Inbound (listen) /Outbound (talk)
3 CONCEPTS Destinations / Streams
Fix / Mobile

FUNCTIONAL SOCIAL MEDIA PLAN
The Plan
REQUIREMENTS - people & teams
(site, portal, apps,
Details

- tools (monitoring &
4 channels, ...) conversation)
- policies & guidelines
- training & coaching
RFP ASSISTANCE
Next

5 DEVELOPMENT
follow-up
CONVERSATION MNGT
day2day, guidance, follow-up


Things to take away
Everything is becoming digital, so is your business, whatever it is

Social is the next logical step in the path of digital evolution

The future of the internet and social will be mobile

The future of mobile will be everything

You need a plan NOW to start dealing with this

Actually, you don’t need a plan, you need to plan (continuously)

Embrace the future now, but don’t overdo it ;-)


Beware of Macro-Myopia*
*the trend to overestimate the impact of change on the short term
and to underestimate the impact of change on the long term.

Don’t say I didn’t warn you ;-)


FireStarter,
bringing
Social into
your
Company


The Future of Media - June 2011

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