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Will the winners still take it all? The sustainability of global academic imbalances
- 2. Will the winners still take it all? The sustainability of global academic imbalances Dirk Van Damme Senior Counsellor OECD/EDU
- 3. The world of higher education is evolving into a global level playing field
- 4. International collaboration in research Belgium* Estonia* Netherlands* Norway* Australia Austria Canada Switzerland Chile Czech Republic Germany Denmark Spain Finland France United Kingdom Greece Hungary Ireland IcelandIsrael Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Latvia Mexico New Zealand Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Sweden Turkey United States 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Low collaboration Low quality High collaboration Low quality Low collaboration High quality High collaboration High quality Normalized citation impact International collaboration among institutions (%) OECD international collaboration median = 28.6 OECD median = 1.1 The citation impact of scientific production and the extent of international collaboration (2012-2016) As an index and percentage of all citable documents, based on fractional counts
- 5. More nations become global research leaders 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Number of publications per 1 000 25-64 year-olds population Percentage of publications among the 10% most cited (right-hand scale) Number of documents and percentage among the world’s 10% most cited publications, fractional counts
- 6. Tertiary attainment rates are exploding Education attainment rates among 25-34 year-olds, OECD, 2000-2020 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Below upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary
- 7. More nations have high-skilled populations Trends in tertiary educational attainment of 25-34 year-olds, 2008 and 2018 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 % 2008 2018 2008: 14 countries more than 40% 2018: 27 countries more than 40%
- 8. Global inequalities in educational attainment are decreasing Gini Index of Education, 1950-2010 Source: (Wail, Said & Abdelhak, 2011)
- 9. Global student mobility continues to increase Growth in international or foreign enrolment in tertiary education worldwide (1998 to 2017) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 Millions of students Total, 5.3 Non-OECD, 1.6 OECD, 3.7
- 10. Global student mobility continues to increase, yet unevenly among countries Incoming student mobility in tertiary education in 2010 and 2017 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Luxembourg Australia NewZealand UnitedKingdom Switzerland Austria Canada CzechRepublic Netherlands Denmark France Hungary EU23Total Ireland Belgium Germany Estonia Finland Latvia SlovakRepublic Iceland Sweden Portugal OECDTotal Italy UnitedStates SaudiArabia Lithuania SouthAfrica Poland RussianFederation Slovenia Greece Spain Norway Israel Korea Turkey Mexico Chile China Brazil Colombia India % 2017 2010 (or closest available year)=47 =44
- 11. Engines of global convergence Research collaboration Converging demand for higher education; internationalization; mobility Common qualification frameworks, credit transfer Integrated higher education areas (EHEA); common quality assurance and recognition arrangements Global rankings fostering mimetic behaviour and shared notions of excellence
- 12. The composition of the global talent pool is changing
- 13. The size and composition of the global talent pool is changing dramatically Share of 24-34 year-olds with a tertiary degree across OECD and G20 countries (2013 and 2030) China 17% United States 14% India 14% Russian Federation 10% Japan 6% Indonesia 4% Brazil 4% Korea 4% Mexico 3% United Kingdom 3% France 2% Germany 2% Canada 2% Turkey 2% Spain 2% Poland 2% Argentina 1% Italy 1% Australia 1% Saudi Arabia 1% Other 6% China 27% United States 8% India 23% Russian Federation 4% Japan 3% Indonesia 5% Brazil 5% Korea 2% Mexico 2% United Kingdom 2% France 1% Germany 2% Canada 1% Turkey 2% Spain 1% Poland 1% Argentina 2% Italy 1% Australia 1% Saudi Arabia 3% Other 6% 137 million 300 million 2013 2030
- 14. The global talent pool. Where are the top performers in science (PISA, 15 year-olds)?
- 15. The global talent pool: several countries see their top talent potential decreasing Change in top- and low-performers in PISA science, 2006-2015 Finland New Zealand Australia Netherlands United Kingdom Slovenia Macao (China) Sweden Austria Portugal Hong Kong (China) Czech Republic Ireland Hungary Croatia IcelandSlovak Republic Greece Qatar Colombia Jordan -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 -35-30-25-20-15-10-5051015 Share of low performers increased Share of low performers decreased Shareoftopperformers decreased Shareoftop performers increased Change in the share of low performers (below Level 2) Changeintheshareoftopperformers (Levels5and6) Only countries/economies where at least one of the changes is statistically significant are shown
- 16. The global talent pool: several countries see their top talent potential decreasing 0 5 10 15 20 25 Finland Estonia Netherlands UK Slovenia Germany Switzerland Belgium Sweden France Norway OECDaverage Austria Portugal Poland CzechRepublic Ireland Denmark Luxembourg Spain Hungary Lituania Italy Croatia Latvia Iceland SlovakRepublic Bulgaria Greece Romania Montenegro Percentage of students at or above Level 5 in 2015 Percentage of students at or above Level 5 in 2006
- 17. The world of higher education is also diverging
- 18. The power of hierarchy The contrast between tertiary educational attainment and academic excellence China 17% United States 14% India 14% Russian Federation 10% Japan 6% Indonesia 4% Brazil 4% Korea 4% Mexico 3% United Kingdom 3% France 2% Germany 2% Canada 2% Turkey 2% Spain 2% Poland 2% Argentina 1% Italy 1% Australia 1% Saudi Arabia 1% Other 6% Share of global graduates 2013 United States 43.2% United Kingdom 13.8% Netherlands 6.0%Germany 4.3% Canada 4.3% Australia 4.3% Switzerland 3.5% France 3.0% Japan 2.5% Sweden 2.6% Korea 2.2% Hong Kong 2.0% Other 8.4% Share in academic excellence THEWUR 2012
- 19. The power of geography Patents per million inhabitants (Europe) (2015)
- 20. The power of geography Patent data around Germany https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3425764
- 21. Engines of global divergence National, regional and local contexts and policies Institutional diversification of missions, student populations, programme orientation, etc. Maintenance of inequalities, power differences and hierarchies in global higher education system, resistance against level playing field General political and social resistance against globalization, internationalization and migration National and regional differences in skills development, skills use and skills management
- 22. The need to be transparent about diversity
- 23. What if the currency of talent is no longer equivalent to high skills? The skills equivalent of tertiary qualifications 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Japan Finland Netherlands Sweden Australia Norway Flanders(Belgium) England/N.Ireland(UK) UnitedStates CzechRepublic Average Poland Canada Austria Germany Ireland France Denmark Estonia SlovakRepublic Korea RussianFederation Spain Italy Tertiary education Below upper secondary education Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education % Proportion of 25-64 year-olds scoring at PIAAC numeracy level 4 and 5, by educational attainment of the population
- 24. What if the influx of tertiary qualifications does not increase the skills in the population? Skills levels among 25-64 year-olds, IALS (1990s) and PIAAC (2010s) 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Level 1 and Below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4-5 PIAAC IALS
- 25. The risks of broken promises
- 26. The risks of broken promises
- 28. Some concluding remarks • Global higher education is increasingly shaped by very powerful forces of global integration and convergence, providing opportunities for institutions to benefit from an increasingly level playing field. • There are also risks of mimetic behaviour: mission drift and ineffective use of resources • One of the most important consequences, is that the composition of the global pool of top talent is changing dramatically. A number of countries in the academic heartland see their talent pool shrinking.
- 29. Some concluding remarks • At the same time, there are powerful forces of divergence, with institutional diversification and institutional strategies to differentiation. Rankings make this diversity visible, but provide a very skewed image of the global system. • In terms of location, there still is no real level playing field: there are important – and unsustainable – geographical gaps between global supply and global demand, especially given the exploding demand in emerging economies. This is a shared responsibility of the global higher education community. • Location, embeddedness in local and regional science and innovation eco-systems, and spatial divergence play an important role in shaping the global higher education system. • There is a very clear contradiction between the geography of demand and the geography of excellence. It is not sustainable to concentrate excellence far away from where demand is growing.
- 30. Some concluding remarks • Differences in research excellence are measurable and visible. Differences in students’ and graduates’ learning outcomes are not. • Huge, yet mostly invisible differences in quality of graduates’ learning outcomes and skills undermine the convergence in educational functions, leading to erosion and diminished trust in higher education credentials as their main currency. • Political strategies and pressures on the system in favour of more convergence in teaching and learning (e.g. Bologna Process) are probably ineffective and unrealistic in view of the powerful trends towards divergence. They are also at odds with pressures towards research excellence.