7. 화학적 조성
Fine particle
(PM2.5)
Sulfate
Nitrate
Ammonium
Hydrogen ion (H+)
Elemental carbon
Organic compounds
(PAHs, PNAs)
Metals
(Pb, Cd, V, Ni, Cu, Zn, Mn, Fe)
Coarse particle
(PM2.5-10)
Re-suspended dust
Coal and oil fly ash
Metal oxides
Sea salt
Pollen, mold spores;
Tyrewear debris
8. 화학적 조성
• 입자 크기가 작을수록
– 위해물질이 상대적으로 많이 함유됨
• Nitrates, Sulfates, H+, PAHs, Pb, Cd, Ni, V
– 폐포까지 노출될 확률이 커짐
• 기도 또는 기관지와 다르게 노출된 먼지를 제거할
수 있는 해부학적 기능이 없음
10. EHP 2011;119:725-730
Survival analysis of long-term exposure to different sizes
of airborne particulate matter and risk of infant mortality
using a birth cohort in Seoul, Korea
Ji-Young Son, Michelle L. Bell, Jong-Tae Lee
11.
12. Table 1. Hazard ratios for an IQR increase from Cox proportional
hazards modela on all-cause infant mortality in a birth cohort,
Seoul, Korea, 2004-2007
Gestational exposure
Hazard ratio (95% CI)
Normal birth weight
(n=352,405)
Low birth weight
(n=7,054)
TSP (IQR, 8.91 µg/m3) 1.44 (1.06-1.97) 1.69 (0.38-7.49)
PM10 (IQR, 6.93 µg/m3) 1.65 (1.18-2.31) 1.48 (0.38-5.80)
PM2.5 (IQR, 3.15 µg/m3) 1.53 (1.22-1.90) 1.00 (0.34-2.94)
PM10-2.5 (IQR, 3.71 µg/m3) 1.19 (0.83-1.70) 1.92 (0.49-7.63)
aThe model included the following variables: sex, gestation period,
education level of mother, maternal age, season of birth, and heat index
Survival analysis of long-term exposure to different
sizes of airborne particulate matter and risk of infant
mortality using a birth cohort in Seoul, Korea
13. • 임신기간 중 입자상 오염물질의 노출이 영아사망을 증가
시킴
• 특히 초미세먼지(PM2.5)의 영향이 주요한 역할을 하는 것
으로 추정됨
– 조대먼지(PM10-2.5)의 경우 유의한 상관성 부재
Survival analysis of long-term exposure to different
sizes of airborne particulate matter and risk of infant
mortality using a birth cohort in Seoul, Korea
14. The adverse effects of fine particle air pollution on
respiratory function in the elderly
Jong-Tae Lee, Ji-Young Son, Yong-Sung Cho
Sci Tot Environ 2007;385:28-36
15. Table 2 Number of participants and age in each survey
Survey Period
# of
participants
(Male)
Age
(year)
Complete ≥ 4 weeks, 100-
800 l/min, and participating
at least two surveys (%)
Remarks
1st survey
(11/02/00~12/15/00)
61 (36) 78.2 32 (52.5)
Correlation between
Spirometer and Peak
flow meter = 0.67
2nd survey
(04/23/01~06/03/01)
47 (30) 78.1 31 (66.0) No spirometer
3rd survey
(10/29/01~12/02/01)
41 (23) 77.7 30 (71.4) No spirometer
Table 3 Mean concentrations of air particles and PEFR in each survey
Survey Period
Mean concentration (µg/m3) and standard errors
PEFR (l/min)
PM10 PM2.5
1st survey
(11/02/00~12/15/00)
75.2 (31.2) 51.9 (19.2) 240.9
2nd survey
(04/23/01~06/03/01)
79.9 (28.1) 55.4 (19.4) 245.6
3rd survey
(10/29/01~12/02/01)
83.6 (38.3) 61.8 (29.7) 249.3
The adverse effects of fine particle air pollution on
respiratory function in the elderly
16. Table 4. Estimated change in peak expiratory flow
rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for two
separate particle sizes using mixed modelsa
Pollutants
Estimated change (l/min) 95% CI
PM2.5 (10 µg/m3) -0.54 -0.89, -0.19
PM10 (10 µg/m3) -0.39 -0.63, -0.14
aThe model included the following variables: an intercept,
categorical variables of survey and sex, date, age, air temperature,
relative humidity
The adverse effects of fine particle air pollution on
respiratory function in the elderly
17. • 입자상 오염물질이 노인들의 폐기능(PEFR) 저하와 연관
성이 있음
• 이러한 관련성은 PM2.5에서 더 크게 관찰됨
• 따라서 보다 작은 입자상 오염물질에 대한 관리가 필요
함
The adverse effects of fine particle air pollution on
respiratory function in the elderly
18. 초미세먼지(PM2.5)의 건강 영향 평가 및 관리 정책
연구 I
한국환경정책·평가연구원(2012.03)
Table1. Percent increase in daily deaths1 and 95% CIs associated with a
10㎍/㎥ increase in PM2.5
Cause of
Death
Age Lag effect
Percent
increase
95% CI
All cause2
All age Lag 0 0.95 0.57-1.34
Over 65 Lag 0 1.37 0.90-1.84
Cardiovascular
All age Lag 0 1.63 0.89-2.37
Over 65 Lag 0 1.75 0.91-2.59
1Seoul, 2006-2010
2Excluding all deaths due to accidents and other external causes
19. Association of fine particulate matter from different sources with
daily mortality in Six U.S. cities
Laden et al. (2000) EHP 108:941-947
21. 국내 PM2.5 주의보 발령과 사망 부담 추정
• 초미세먼지 주의보발령
– 주의보(경보)발령: 농도 85㎍/㎥(120㎍/㎥)이 2시간 이상 지속되는
경우
– 2014년 2월24일 정오~27일 오후 3시까지 총 75시간 동안 서울지역
초미세먼지 주의보발령
• 국내 PM2.5 대기환경기준
– 연평균 25㎍/㎥(WHO 10㎍/㎥);
– 24시간 평균50㎍/㎥ (WHO 25㎍/㎥)
22. • 주의보발령 기간 전후의 초과사망자수의 추정
– 서울지역 2012년 외인사 제외 총사망자수 : 40,040명 (일평균
109.4명)
– 일평균 기준과 연평균 기준을 각각 적용하여 초과사망자수 추정
Table1. Estimated excessive deaths due to PM2.5 episode
Day
Daily mean
concentration
Domestic study result a
(0.95%/10㎍/㎥)
Laden et al. b
(3.4%/10㎍/㎥)
Daily standard
(50㎍/㎥)
Yearly standard
(25㎍/㎥)
Daily standard
(50㎍/㎥)
Yearly standard
(25㎍/㎥)
2014-02-23 58 0.83 3.43 2.98 12.27
2014-02-24 84 3.53 6.13 12.65 21.95
2014-02-25 86 3.74 6.34 13.39 22.69
2014-02-26 73 2.39 4.99 8.55 17.85
2014-02-27 62 1.25 3.85 4.46 13.76
2014-02-28 58 0.83 3.43 2.98 12.27
Total 70.2 12.6 28.2 44.9 100.8
aPM2.5 10㎍/㎥ 증가로 인한 일사망증가율. 한국환경정책평가연구원 (2012)
b국외 PM2.5 10㎍/㎥ 증가 중 motor source로 인한 일사망증가율
23. PM2.5 10㎍/㎥ 증가로 인한 연간 조기사망자수의 추정
• WHO의 대기오염으로 인한 사망부담의 계산 방법을 이용하여 추정
• 추정에 필요한 변수
– Attributable fraction(AF) : 인체건강영향의 농도-반응관계를 연구한 역
학연구를 통해 산출 (AF =
𝑅𝑅−1
𝑅𝑅
)
– 서울지역 사망률(B) : 2012년 서울지역 사망률
– 노출 인구(P) : 2013년 서울 인구 수
• Premature deaths per year = AF x B x P
Table2. Premature deaths per year due to 10㎍/㎥ increase of PM2.5
Domestic study result
(0.95 percent increase)
Laden et al.
(3.4 percent increase)
Estimate 95% CI Estimate 95% CI
388.7 234.1 - 546.1 1358.2 690.4 - 2041.6
25. 미세먼지 관리
• 미세먼지의 발생특성에 따라 차별화 정책
• 도시의 경우 자동차 운용제한
• 민감 및 취약인구
26. Characterization of fine particulate matter and
associations between particulate chemical constituents
and mortality in Seoul, Korea
Ji-Young Son, Jong-Tae Lee, Ki-Hyun Kim, Kweon Jung, Michelle Bell
EHP 2012;120:872-878
27. Characterization of fine particulate matter and associations
between particulate chemical constituents and mortality in
Seoul, Korea
28. Characterization of fine particulate matter and associations
between particulate chemical constituents and mortality in
Seoul, Korea
• 국내 초미세먼지 구성 성분 중 NO3, SO4, NH4
등이 주요하게 포함됨
• 미세먼지 성분 중 Mg (p-value<0.05)을 포함하
여 NO3 (p-value<0.10), SO4 (p-value<0.10),
NH4 (p-value<0.05)가 사망률과 통계적으로 유
의한 관련성을 보임
29. A comparison of mortality related to urban air particles
between periods with Asian dust days and without Asian
dust days in Seoul, Korea, 2000-2004
Jong-Tae Lee, Ji-Young Son, Yong-Sung Cho
Environ Res 2007;105:409-13
30. Table 1 Summary statistics of daily concentrations of air
pollutants and total death counts on model with/without
Asian dust days included in Seoul, Korea, 2000-2004
Variable Mean (SD)
Model without Asian
dust days included
(N=1764 days)
Asian dust days only
(N=63 days)
PM10 (µg/m3)
CO (ppm)
NO2 (ppb)
SO2 (ppb)
O3 (ppb)
Temperature (℃)
Humidity (%)
Pressure (hPa)
Total death counts (per day)
65.77 (33.60)
0.92 (0.41)
37.38 (12.22)
5.20 (2.17)
26.70 (14.78)
13.03 (10.19)
62.79 (14.28)
1016.19 (8.15)
93.18 (12.08)
188.49 (142.85)
1.00 (0.47)
36.41 (12.58)
5.62 (2.35)
30.07 (12.56)
9.15(5.62)
54.27 (14.90)
1013.59 (5.55)
95.38 (10.07)
A comparison of mortality related to urban air particles between
periods with Asian dust days and without Asian dust days in Seoul,
Korea, 2000-2004
31. A comparison of mortality related to urban air particles between
periods with Asian dust days and without Asian dust days in Seoul,
Korea, 2000-2004
Table 2 Estimated percentage increases in the risk of total death and 95%
confidence intervals for total death by an interquartile range (IQR)1 using a
single-pollutant model2
Air Pollutants [lag time]
Percentage increases
Model with
Asian dust days included
(N=1827 days)
Model without
Asian dust days included
(N=1764 days)
PM10 (µg/㎥) [lag1+2+3] 0.7 (0.2, 1.3) 1.0 (0.2, 1.8)
CO (ppm) [lag1] 3.3 (2.5, 4.1) 3.3 (2.5, 4.2)
NO2 (ppb) [lag1] 2.4 (1.6, 3.1) 2.5 (1.7, 3.3)
SO2 (ppb) [lag1] 2.5 (1.7, 3.3) 2.7 (1.8, 3.5)
O3 (ppb) [lag1+2] 0.4 (-0.6, 1.4) 0.5 (-0.5, 1.5)
1 The IQR was 41.49µg/㎥ for PM10, 0.54ppm for CO, 17.93ppb for NO2, 3.06ppb for SO2, 21.03ppb
for O3
2 The model included the following variables: an intercept, indicator variables for days of the week,
and smooth spline functions for date, temperature, humidity, and air pressure
32. • 황사 시기를 제외한 경우 미세먼지의 위해도가 상대적으
로 더 컸음
• 황사시기를 제외하지 않고 수도권 미세먼지 위해도가 평
가될 경우 실제 미세먼지 건강위해 크기가 과소평가될
가능성이 있음
– 현재 평가결과들 보다 실제 위해크기는 더 클 수 있음
• 미세먼지 관리가 발생원 특성 등을 고려한 차별화된 정
책적 접근 필요
A comparison of mortality related to urban air particles between
periods with Asian dust days and without Asian dust days in Seoul,
Korea, 2000-2004
33. JA&WMA 2007;57:968-73
Benefits of mitigated ambient air quality due to transportation control
on childhood asthma hospitalization during the 2002 Summer Asian
Games in Busan, Korea
Jong-Tae Lee, Ji-Young Son, Yong-Sung Cho
34. September 8 September 29 October 15 November 4
Asian Game
Period/Block II
Pre-Asian Game
Period/Block I
Post-Asian Game
Period/Block III
Baseline Period Effective Period
Percent Change of Air Pollutants
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Year
%
C
h
a
n
g
e
CO
NO2
SO2
PM10
O3
Figure 1 Study
period sections
analyzed in the
study.
Figure 2 Percent changes of
air pollution levels in Busan
during the effective period
(post-Asian Games period,
from October 15 to
November 4) compared
with the baseline periods
(pre-Asian and Asian Games
periods, from September 8
to October 14) in several
calendar years.
35. Pollutant CO NO2 SO2 PM10 O3
RR
(95% confidence
interval)
1.01
(0.74-1.38)
1.35
(1.01-1.80)
1.34
(1.06-1.68)
1.34
(1.13-1.60)
1.24
(1.04-1.48)
1An IQR is 0.44 ppm for CO, 15.09 ppb for NO2, 3.64 ppb for SO2, 28.82 μg/m3 for PM10, and 12.39 ppb for O3
2The model included the following variables: an intercept, indicator variables for day of week, a variable for each
pollutant; and smooth functions for date, temperature, humidity, and air pressure.
Table 1 Estimated relative risks and their 95% confidence intervals of hospital admissions for
asthma by an interquartile range (IQR)1 in the daily concentrations of ambient air pollutants using
a single-pollutant model2 (data from September 8 to November 4 of 2002)
Year
2002 2003
RR (95% Confidence Interval) 0.73 (0.49, 1.11) 1.78 (1.27, 2.48)
Daily mean (SD) asthma
hospital admissions
Baseline period2 5.5 (3.9) 4.1 (2.8)
Effective period3 3.3 (2.3) 6.2 (3.4)
% change -40 +51.2
1The model included the following variables: an intercept, indicator variables for day of week, calendar year and
period, an interaction term of year and period; and smooth functions for temperature, humidity, air pressure
2From September 8 to October 14;3From October 15 to November 4
Table 2 Estimated relative risks and daily mean (SD) of hospital admissions for asthma among the
children less than 15 years of age during the post-Asian Game period compared with the baseline
period (pre-Asian and Asian Game periods) using a baseline model with an interaction term by
year1
36. Benefits of mitigated ambient air quality due to transportation control on
childhood asthma hospitalization during the 2002 Summer Asian Games in
Busan, Korea
• 아시안게임 동안 대기오염 수준이 저감되었음
– 자동차 통행량 규제가 도시대기오염을 저감하는 효과적인
대안
• 미세먼지를 포함한 대기오염 저감이 아동천식 입원
율 저감과 같은 건강편익을 발생시킨다는 실증적 사
례
• 도시대기오염의 경우 자동차 통행량 또는 배출가스
규제 등의 관리가 오염도 저감의 효과적인 대안
38. Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions for Ischemic Heart Diseases
among Individuals 64+ Years of Age Residing in Seoul, Korea
39. Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions for Ischemic Heart Diseases
among Individuals 64+ Years of Age Residing in Seoul, Korea
• 노인들의 경우 보다 취약한 인구집단임
– 미세먼지로 인한 노인들의 허혈성심장질환으로 인한
입원 증가
40.
41. Effect of Air Pollution on Asthma-Related Hospital Admissions for
Children by Socioeconomic Status Associated With Area of Residence
42. Effect of Air Pollution on Asthma-Related Hospital Admissions for Children
by Socioeconomic Status Associated With Area of Residence
• 사회경제수준이 낮은 지역에서의 미세먼지 영향
이 크게 나타나고 있음
– 사회경제수준이 낮은 지역에 대한 환경관리 우선 필
요성
43. 정책적 대안(정리)
• 발생원 특성을 고려한 차별화된 정책
• 도시의 경우 자동차 관련 관리 필요성
• 노인, 임산부와 영유아, 아동에 대한 관리
• 사회경제수준이 낮은 지역에 대한 우선관리
• 건강부담(서울지역)
– 주의보발령: 12~100명의 초과사망자
– 초미세먼지 10 ㎍/㎥: 연간 388~1358명 사망