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Israel Opportunity 2008 Conference for International Investors in London

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Israel Opportunity 2008 Conference for International Investors in London

  1. 1. The Israeli Economy Stanley Fischer Bank of Israel June 2008
  2. 2. Growth Rate of GDP 2000-2008* % * 2008 – BOI Forecast.
  3. 3. Rate of Inflation in Last 12 Months and Inflation Targets, 1992-2008 %
  4. 4. Bank of Israel Interest Rate, Inflation Expectations*, and the Fed’s interest Rate, 2004-2008 % *For 12 months, as derived from the capital market.
  5. 5. Budget Deficit * (percentage of GDP, 2000-2007) % * Percent of GDP; excluding credit extended. Until 1996, domestic deficit; from 1997, total deficit. *The data from 2000 refer to the deficit excluding the Bank of Israel’s profits.
  6. 6. Public Sector Debt , Percentage of GDP, 2000-2007 ( year-end ) %
  7. 7. <ul><li>International Aspects </li></ul>
  8. 8. The Nominal and the Real Exchange Rate 2008 - 1997 Shekel / Dollar Exchange Rate 01/01/1997-20/06/2008 The Real Exchange Rate by Trading Partners (100=01/1997, 01/1997-06/2008) 108.9 NIS *The Nis/$ chart is on a daily basis, while the real exchange rate chart is on a monthly basis. <ul><ul><ul><li>A rise in the index indicates depreciation. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The figure for June 2008 is calculated from spot exchange rates known for the half-month, our forecast CPI from the monthly model, and an extrapolation of inflation in the countries whose currencies are in the currency basket. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SOURCE: IFS data. For February 2008 to June 2008, Bank of Israel calculations. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  9. 10. Current Account of Balance of Payments as Percentage of GDP, 1995-2008 (Annual) <ul><li>SOURCE: Balance of Payments, Central Bureau of Statistics. </li></ul>
  10. 11. Openness of the Israeli Economy (percentage of GDP, 1995-2008*) % *Goods and Services. Source: National accounts, CBS. * BOI Forecast
  11. 12. Manufacturing Exports by Technology Intensity High-technology Industries: office & computing equipment, electronic components, aircraft, electronic communication equipment, equipment for control & supervision, pharmaceutical products. Medium-high-technology Industries: chemicals & refining petroleum, machinery & equipment, electronic equipments & electrical motors, transport equipment. Medium-low-technology Industries: mining & quarrying, rubber & plastic products, non-metallic mineral products, basic metals, metal products, ships & boats, jewelry & silversmiths’, articles n.e.c. Low-technology Industries: food products, beverages & tobacco, textiles, wearing apparel & leather, paper, printing & wood products. Source: Foreign Trade, CBS.
  12. 13. Investment in Israel by Nonresidents (as percentage of GDP, 2000-2007) Investment of Israeli Residents Abroad (as percentage of GDP, 2000-2007) SOURCE: Central Bureau of Statistics, Balance of Payments. % % 8,798 14,694 4,868 4,217 7,251 2,012 3,822 1,812 1,767 723 3,626 75 5,062 5,058 9,790 14,992 8,244 2,941 4,548 2,381 2,065 3,154 2,708 982 1,623 688 2,149 3,336 270 10,276 6,649 7,064
  13. 14. <ul><li>Financial Markets and Risk Premium </li></ul>
  14. 15. The Share Markets: Israel, the US and the Emerging Markets, (1/6/2006=100, 1/6/2006 - 20/06/08) Israel (Tel Aviv 100) EM (EMERGING MARKETS) NASDAQ
  15. 16. Israel 5 year Credit Default Swap 6/2003 - 6/2008 63
  16. 17. Israeli Shahar - US Government 10 Year Spread, 1/2006 - 6/2008 %
  17. 18. <ul><li>The Hi-Tech </li></ul><ul><li>Sector </li></ul>
  18. 19. ISRAEL ELECTRONICS & INFORMATION INDUSTRIES 2007 - 20,700 M$ Civilian Comm. & Telecomm. Components Industrial Equipment 22.9% 13.4% 17.8% 13.4% Defense Systems 23.7% Software 8.8% Medical Systems
  19. 20. Engineering graduates per year in 2006 <ul><li>Israel 8000 engineers /year (pop 7.2M) 0.11% </li></ul><ul><li>France 30 000 engineers/year, (pop 64M) 0.046% </li></ul><ul><li>UK 25 000 engineers/year (pop 60M) 0.04% </li></ul><ul><li>USA 74 000 engineers/ year (pop 300M) 0.024% </li></ul><ul><li>China 600 000 engineers/year (pop 1.3Bn) 0.0046% </li></ul><ul><li>India 400 000 engineers/year (pop 1.1Bn) 0.036% </li></ul><ul><li>Japan 90 000 engineers/year (pop 127M) 0.07% </li></ul>
  20. 21. Major Multinational Companies with a Design Center in Israel
  21. 22. Thank you

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