1. Where eLearning is Coming From
Preview: eLearning Guild Research
New Directions Report
Ellen Wagner and Beth Davis
Sage Road Solutions, LLC
2. Agenda
• Review emerging technologies likely to impact
learning, education and training in the next 6 months – 3 yrs
• Indentify influences from outside the LET world that are
accelerating change
• Review necessary conditions for sustaining innovation and
improving business results
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4. Variables Moving
the Flags on the Horizon
Vertical Markets
• Economic, Financial • Stimulus
Conditions • Education
• Education Trends
• Business Process • Labor/Commerce
• Government
Operations • DOD, DHS
(DoD) Trends
• Commercial (e.g.
FSI, Manufacturing)
Commercial Public
Issues Policy
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5. Resources Used in Scan
eLearning Learning
Business & IT Education/
Industry Innovation
Research Market Research
Research Research
Wainhouse
Gartner eLearning Guild
EDUCAUSE
Research
Research
Campus
Forrester Bersin &
Computing New Media
Research Associates
Project Consortium
Brandon Hall Gartner
IDC Sloan
Research Research
Consortium
Jupiter
AACE
Research
Personal
Research
Dashboard
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7. Learning and Technology:
A Never-Ending Adoption Curve
Web 1.0 – Web 2.0 -
Published Participative
Digitized
Web 3.0 – 3D
Media
Learning and
Web 4.0 –
Representative
Performance “Everyware”
Media
Improvement
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8. Not all online experiences are created equally
Hybrid/Blended
http://www.sloan-c.org/publications/freedownloads.asp
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9. Wainhouse Research Distance Education and
eLearning Landscape, Nov 2007
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10. Wainhouse Research Predictions
• eLearning growth is taking place in three separate segments, in relative order:
– Learning Management, Platforms, Software and Tools
– Video for Learning
– Interaction
• Overall market for LMS platforms and services will grow from $802.8 million in
2007 to $1.5 billion in 2011, at a (CAGR) of 13%. The bulk of this growth will occur
in higher education.
• The corporate segment of the industry will enter a slow growth period and
undergo further consolidation.
• There is a greater than 50% probability that many LMS platforms will include real-
time audio, web conferencing, Instant Messaging, Presence, and
videoconferencing capabilities as a matter of course within two years, and a 95%
probability these capabilities are contained within five years.
• Hosted and managed services will become the preferred deployment mode for
the traditionally CPE-based LMS industry.
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11. Traditional and Emerging eLearning Markets
High
Rapid eLearning, Saas LMS, LCMS, games and
Growth
(100%+)
mobile learning are the fastest growing segments
Mobile
75%
Games
55%
LMS/LCMS LMS
Sims
LCMS (Saas) (traditional)
12%
25% 20% (12%)
Rapid Virtual Web
15% Classroom Tools
9% 4%
Low
Growth
Mature
Emerging
Adapted from Bersin& Associates, 2007
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12. Horizons Report, 2008
Time-to- Time-to- Time-to-
Adoption: One Adoption: Two Adoption: Four
Year or Less to Three Years to Five Years
• Grassroots Video • Mobile Broadband • Collective
Intelligence
• Collaboration Webs • Data Mashups
• Social Operating
Systems
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13. Horizon Report 2008:
Trends Affecting Learning Tech Adoption
• The growing use of Web 2.0 and social networking—combined with
collective intelligence and mass amateurization*—is gradually but
inexorably changing the practice of scholarship.
• Access to—and portability of—content is increasing as smaller, more
powerful devices are introduced.
• Electronic book readers like the Amazon Kindle and web enabled devices
like the Apple iPhone and the LG Electronics Voyager make it possible to
carry vast amounts of information in a small package.
• The gap between students’ perception of technology and that of faculty
continues to widen.
* The rise of the “Prosumer” and User Generated Content Phemonemnon
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14. Horizons Report, 2009
Time-to- Time-to- Time-to-
Adoption: One Adoption: Two Adoption: Four
Year or Less to Three Years to Five Years
• Mobiles • Geo Everything • Semantic Aware
Apps
• Cloud Computing • The personal
Web • Smart Objects
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15. Horizon Report 2009:
• Mobiles: Video, apps, true personal, portable computing
• Cloud computing: large distributed data farms improve
storage and processing power for all
• Geo-everything: Location-based tagging
• Semantic Web: Context-aware tagging
• Smart Objects: objects that recognize their physical location
or can connect with other objects or information.
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16. eLearning Guild Trends, 2008
“Working in the Consumer tech /
Business conditions
Cloud” UGC for learning
Ongoing
Expanded access to
Video redefinition of
wireless broadband
elearning
Continued blurring
Devices with built- Enterprise social
of elearning tool
in 3G and WiFi networking
categories
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21. Emerging IT Industry Trends
That Will Affect elearning Practice
Web 2.0
Working in
Mobility
the Cloud
The
RIAs
Metaverse
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22. Web 2.0 - Social Power
• Social Networks such as Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn
strengthen interpersonal connections
• Viral microblog sites such as Twitter and Tweet Deck play
host for those who appreciate quot;snackablequot; content.
• Social tools like Ning and IntroNetworks make connections
actionable
• User Generated Content, RSS feeds, blogs, wikis empower
the “pro-sumer”
• Social book-marking and smart-searching create trust
• Podcasting, Life-casting, live-blogging, video and photo-
sharing empower creative expression
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24. Mobility and the Mobile Web
• More wireless devices, more wireless broadband services.
Apps make the device. Open access to run any application
on any device anywhere in the world.
• The next-gen computer and ultimate social media device:
The 3G Smartphone
• Sensors and Location Based Services
• Web Video, Games, Collaboration
• Content or Commerce? The Transactional Side of Mobile
• Beyond 3G: LTE and 4G Services
• The Internet of Things
• The Mobile Web is all about Apps
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26. What do 1.2 billion mobile youth want?
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27. RIAs
• Rich Internet Applications (RIAs) enable the creation
of user experience (UX) that is more responsive and
engaging than those found in traditional web
applications
• RIA spans a range of technology alternatives:
Flex, Ajax, Silverlight
• Based on the premise that a rich productive user
experience can be achieved using only standards
based technologies built into a modern browser
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30. When Mobile Meets RIAs:
Google Latitude
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31. “Working in the Cloud”
Cloud computing is a style of computing whose
massively scalable and elastic IT capabilities
are provided as a service to external
customers using internet technologies.
– Platform Makeover –
Browsers, Virtualization, Software as a Service (SaaS)
– Smart(er) World – Pattern recognizing, real-world
data sampling computers will be smarter than we
are by 2029 (Kurzweil)
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32. Cloud Computing
VIRTUAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Amazon Google Other private “clouds”
WEB DEVELOPMENT PLATFORM
Google Apps Flex Ajax SIlverlight
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
iPhone SDK AIR
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33. Anticipated IT App Spending 2009
http://www.internetevolution.com/author.asp?doc_id=173080&f_src=itgazette
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34. WHEN THE HYPE CYCLE MEETS THE
INNOVATION ADOPTION CURVE
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35. Leveraging Disruptive Innovations
Disruptive innovations
are transformative
tools, devices, practice
s
Generally slow to be
adopted because they
are initially less
reliable than market
leading tools and
practices
Result in dramatic Clayton M. Christiansen, The Innovator’s Dilemma (1997)
Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press
change when broad
adoption finally does
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37. Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation
Adoption Curve
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38. When Hype Cycle Meets the
Innovation Adoption Curve
Digital Skills
Communication &Collaboration
E-Learning and Virtual Schools
Interest/
Hype
Early Adopters Mainstream adoption
Number of users
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39. THANKS FOR YOUR INTEREST
ellen@sageroadsolutions.com
+1.707.933.8471
www.sageroadsolutions.com
Skype: ellenwagner1
www.twitter.com/edwsonoma
www.elearningroadtrip.typepad.com
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