Quoted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
35* probability / belief biases 35* probability / belief biases
Texas sharpshooter fallacy
Positive outcome bias The fallacy of selecting or adjusting a
The tendency to overestimate the hypothesis after the data is collected,
probability of good things happening making it impossible to test the hypothesis
to them (see also wishful thinking, fairly. Refers to the concept of ﬁring shots
optimism bias, and valence effect). at a barn door, drawing a circle around the
best group, and declaring that to be
Telescoping effect A vague and random stimulus (often an
The effect that recent events image or sound) is perceived as
appear to have occurred more signiﬁcant, e.g., seeing images of
remotely and remote events appear animals or faces in clouds, the man in
to have occurred more recently. the moon, and hearing hidden
messages on records played in reverse.
The tendency to concentrate on
the people or things that The tendency to judge a decision
"survived" some process and by its eventual outcome instead of
ignoring those that didn't, or based on the quality of the decision
arguing that a strategy is effective at the time it was made.
given the winners, while ignoring
the large amount of losers.
Disregard of regression
Selection bias toward the mean
A distortion of evidence or
The tendency to expect extreme
data that arises from the way
performance to continue.
that the data are collected.
*number listed here is not an academic fact, it is simply listed to aid the memorization process.