Diapositivas presentadas por Kati Suominen, Founder & CEO TradeUp Capital Fund and Nextrade Group LLC, en el eCommerce Day Buenos Aires 2016.

1. Digital Disruption in 2016-2020:
Where Is Growth Coming From – and Is
That Where You Want to Be?
Dr. Kati Suominen
Founder & CEO, NextradeGroup & TradeUpCapital Fund
Adjunct Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
11 August 2016
eCommerce Day, Buenos Aires
kati@nextradegroupllc.com

2. Ecommerce is still driven by only a
handful of humanity…
7.4bn people
5.2bn mobile phones
3.2bn online
1.1bn high-
speed
Internet
• Wealthy
• Urban
• Young
• Male
• Developed
countries
?

3. Megatrend 1: Huge Growth in Internet Users
270m in
LatAm

4. More & More of LatAm Netizens =
Digital Buyers

5. Megatrend 2: Incomes Are Growing
Per capita income, 2016 and 2020
• 75% of consumption growth
is from income growth

6. Income Growth  Internet Use,
Consumption
LatAm 2016
LatAm 2020

7. Strong Income Growth in LatAm 2016-2020

8. Megatrend 3: More Low Income Online
Shoppers – do you buy online?
Before

9. Megatrend 3: More Low Income Online
Shoppers
Now

10.  Ecommerce as % of LatAm Retail Growing
• UK: 14%
• US: 8%
• China: 13%
• Brazil: 4%

11. By 2020
• 270m new Internet users in LatAm, 3bn globally
 Most lower income
• LatAm shopper is wealthier by 10-15%
• More low-income Latin Americans shop online
 How do you get at this massive market?

12. Global Income “Pyramid”
1bn people
<$1 / day
3bn people
$1-$8 / day
2bn people
$10-$60 / day
1bn people
>$60 / day

13. Global Income “Pyramid”
1bn people
<$1 / day
3bn people
$1-$8 / day
2bn people
$10-$60 / day
1bn people
>$60 / day

14. Mobile Use Is on Fire

15. Smartphone Usage Rates 30-50%

16. Low-Income People Connect Online on Mobile
 Go “Mobile First”

17. Buy online to save
time
Buy online to find best
fit, save money
 Know Your Customer & what drives them

18. And Do Customer Analytics
Source: McKinsey.

19.  Know Where Your Customer Is
Source: Esri data.
2016

20. And where she is tomorrow
Source: Esri data.
2020

21. Cross-Border Ecommerce Grows Much Faster
Cross-border ecommerce growth =
5x domestic ecommerce growth in
2016-2020

22. Digital Disruption in 2016-2020:
Where Is Growth Coming From – and Is
That Where You Want to Be?
Dr. Kati Suominen
Founder & CEO, NextradeGroup & TradeUpCapital Fund
Adjunct Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
11 August 2016
eCommerce Day, Buenos Aires
kati@nextradegroupllc.com

23. $
Legal and regulatory frameworks
Ecommerce strategies Ecommerce logistics
Online payments
ICT infrastructure and services
Ecommerce skills
Much has to go right in the “enabling
environment”

24. Ecommerce is still driven by only a
handful of humanity…
Demographics
Geography Psychographics

25. Ecommerce is still driven by only a
handful of humanity…
Demographics
Geography Psychographics
Demographics

26. Know Your Customer

27. Internet is used more by some
demographic groups

31. 32
Source: UNCTAD
% of individuals purchasing products online, 2013
Most emerging market shoppers have not bought online

32. …and only some companies sell online
% of companies with online sales
 Typically these are: Larger, fast-growing, skill-intensive, export-oriented, urban

33. Source: Author based on Eurostat.
Even most EU companies are offline

34. The Next 5 Years

35. Cross-Border Trade Is Growing

36. Who’s Driving This?
B2C Ecommerce Markets in 2015
Source: eMarketer.

37. Emerging Markets Catching Up
% of people using the Internet

38. Megatrend 2: Incomes Are Growing
Per capita income, 2016 and 2020
• 75% of consumption growth
is from income growth

39. China’s $24,000 Club
• Higher incomes: more discretionary income,
purchases of luxury products
• 100 million by 2020
• Highly connected
• Buying ~$6.5T
• 53% of the millennials – who buy 40% more than
older people of same incomes

43. Womenomics
• Women drive 65-80% of all B2C purchasing
• Women have money to spend: incomes at $18T by 2018
• U.S. women make 61% more online purchases than men
and make up 58% of online spending

44. Asian women emerging as spenders –
and breadwinners
Source: EIU.

45. Huge Mass of Urban Consumers
• Want to reach 80% of consumers by 2020?
 Be in 430 world markets = cities
• 410m people & 61% of world GDP by 2030 in 750 mega-cities
• 91% of growth in consumption comes from cities
• Large young & urban populations in Nigeria, China, India,
Brazil, U.S.
• Most urban consumption still in China + North America: 315
cities make up 40% of consumption growth

46. Biggest spenders: today’s millennials
Source: McKinsey Global Institute.

47. Source: McKinsey Global Institute.

48. Surprise! Rural ecommerce growing fast
• Rural consumers: 80m new online buyers in
2015 alone
• Rural buying growing with rise of smartphones:
physical retail not near, while phones are
• India: more and more demand from 3,313 tier II
& III cities & 1,233 rural hubs

49. Cities
What Is Your Strategy?
New Spending Power
New connectivity
China
$24K
Club
B2C &
B2B
Emerging
markets of
Africa, LAC
B2C, B2B
Emerging
market women
B2C
Advanced
economy
women and
men
B2C
Advanced
economy
businesses
B2B
Rural, BOP
B2C, B2C

50. LatAm Companies: Already in Crossborder

51. LatAm Companies: Already in Crossborder

52. LatAm Companies: Already in Crossborder

53. LatAm Challenges

54. LatAm Challenges

55. LatAm Challenges

56. Most consumption still in advanced economies
% of world GDP per capita, 2016 and 2020

57. • B2B ecommerce at $6.7T by 2020: manufacturers and
wholesalers getting online
• Smartphones accelerate this: already, 42% of B2B purchase
researchers use a mobile device during the purchasing process
• >50% of B2B decision-makers in 2020: Millennials
B2B Is Exploding
Source: Google.
2012 2015
3x growth in
B2B searches
from mobiles

58. In B2B too, Think of Millennials & Mobile:
Shift in B2B Researcher Demographic
Source: Google.

59. How Do People Buy (or Browse)
Source: Nielsen.

61. What Sectors – and Where?
Source: Nielsen.