1. Implications of Global Climate
Change for Tourism Flows and
Seasonality
Environmental and Natural Resources Policy-
Case study
Elnara Mehdiyeva
Anaa Saleem
Andrea Cecchi

2. • The objectives of the case
• Introduction
• The main motivations for travelling
• The ways how weather is characterised by different type
of leisure
• Tourism Seasonality
• The Tourism Climatic Index
• Conceptual framework of tourism climate distributions
• Methods & Results
• Conclusion
• Questions

3. • To assess the potential implications of
projected climate change on international &
1 regional tourism flows throughout the 21 c.
• To assess the implications of projected
climate change on tourism seasonality in the
2 summer European market

4. • Climate change as a significant social&
environmental issue
• The rise of temperature since 1861 as the
proves of Global Climate change
• The rise of global sea level
• Possible changes in the future

5. • The impact of psychological needs
• The ‘’push’’ & ‘’pull’’ factors
• A strong relationship between the weather
and tendency to travel

6. • The IISD’s point of view distinction
between tourism and recreation
• Smith’s discrimination of climate- dependent
& weather-sensitive tourism
Climate Changes in
change
Time climatic
seasonality

7. • The seasonality caused by:
Institutional factors
Natural factors
Examples:
Examples:
Timing of religious
Temperature
(i.e. Christmas)
Perception
Timing of school
Depth of Snow
Annual festival
Positive
to the opportunities for ecological
and community recovery which
provided during the offseason.

8. • TCI allows quantitative evaluation of the
world’s climate for the purpose of general
tourism activity.
• TCI designed to indicate the level of climatic
comfort for tourism activity but NOT the
tourism infrastructures (e.g. transportation).

9. 1- Daytime comfort • Maximum daily temperature (ºC)
index • Minimum daily relative humidity (%)
• Mean daily temperature (ºC)
2- Daily comfort index • Mean daily relative humidity (%)
3- Precipitation • Precipitation (mm)
4- Sunshine • Daily duration of sunshine (hours)
5- Wind speed • Average Wind speed (m/s or km/h)

10. • TCI index has rating numbers of the comfort
level of tourism activities, and thus, a region
with a high TCI may experience low levels of
tourism arrivals, and on the other hand, a
region with a low TCI may experience high
levels of tourism arrivals, because a multitude
of other factors besides climatic conditions
influence tourism activity.
Value of index
Value of index Value of index
Value of index 10-19
50-59 below 9
90-100  Ideal extremely
Acceptable Impossible
comfort of unfavorable
comfort of comfort of
Tourism Activity comfort of
Tourism Activity Tourism Activity
Tourism Activity

11. • TCI includes the most • TCI indicates the most
favorable climate conditions favorable climate
for general occur in the conditions for peak general
(northern) summer months tourism activity occur in
the (northern) winter
months
Summer Winter
Peak peak
Bimodal Dry
shoulder season
• TCI indicates the most peaks peak • TCI indicates the most
favorable climate favorable climate conditions
conditions for general or general tourism activity
tourism activity occur in occur in the dry season;
the spring and autumn applies, e.g., to the monsoon
(shoulder) months regions of Asia

12.  TCI calculated for a series of current and
future time spans
 We consider two different scenarios:
• A1: rapid and successful economic
development; high rates of innovation and
investments
• B1: environmentally and socially conscious
future, globally approach to sustainable
development

13. We focus the results on:
 Northern hemispheric summer
 Number of locations included in “good months”
Changes will be based on the two climate change
scenarios

14. • Strong correlation between TCI index and
currently popular summer destinations
• FUTURE A1: pronounced poleward movement
in tourism comfort
 ideal conditions: northern Europe and
Canada
• FUTURE B1: less dramatic poleward shift
•  ideal conditions: northern France, southern
parts of UK and southern Scandinavia

16. CURRENTLY Regions of high confort 
>10 months (Egypt, Morocco, shifting southwards
Mexico, and Perù)
6/7 months (Spain, Italy, Greece,
Turkey …) • i.e. From the coast of Peru
2/3 months (Denmark, Sweden, to that of Chile
Finland …)
FUTURE (by 2080s) • i.e From the north of
A1  No more high comfort Australia to the south side
places Trends repeated across both
B1  Just a handful of
A1 and B1 scenarios
comfortable condition areas
IMPLICATIONS:
European tourism is moving northwards
South of Europe from 7 to 4 “good months”
North of Europe will increase its level of
comfort

17. • Climate is a principal resource for tourism & a principal
driver of global seasonality in tourism demand
• Climate affects a wide range of the environmental
resources that are critical attractions for tourism, such as
snow conditions, wildlife productivity and biodiversity
• The countries that experience better summer conditions
would face large increases in visitation without being able
to shift some additional demand to the shoulder seasons
• Climate change bring some relief to extreme cases of
seasonality, but institutions & tourists should be sensitive

18. • Is TCI a proper index to assess to most comfort
places? Is the empirical view agreed with the
results of index?
• Do you think that the climate changes will
negatively influence on willingness to travel
to habitual destinations?

19. Resources:
• Implication of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality
(Bas Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner)
Journal of Travel Research 2007 45:285
• Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner. (2007, January 1). Implications of Global Climate Change
for Tourism Flows and Seasonality . Journal of Travel Research . Retrieved December 5, 2012, from
http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/45/3/285
• B., Nicholls, S., & Viner, D.. (2007, January 1). TCI Values. Implications of Global Climate Change
for Tourism Flows and Seasonality. Retrieved December 5, 2012, from Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and
david Viner. (2007, January 1). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and
Seasonality . Journal of Travel Research . Retrieved December 5, 2012, from
http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/45/3/285
http://www.carrs.msu.edu/Main/People/faculty%20bios/extra/nicho210-journal.pdf