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Hi	
  there,	
  thank	
  you	
  for	
  coming.	
  My	
  name	
  is	
  Emily	
  Greer,	
  and	
  I’m	
  the	
  co-­‐founder	
  &	
  
CEO	
  of	
  Kongregate,	
  the	
  browser	
  games	
  plaDorm	
  and	
  now	
  a	
  mobile	
  games	
  publisher	
  
as	
  well	
  
1	
  
That’s	
  what	
  I’m	
  going	
  to	
  talk	
  about	
  today,	
  this	
  is	
  going	
  to	
  be	
  something	
  of	
  a	
  post-­‐
mortem	
  on	
  our	
  first	
  12	
  months	
  as	
  a	
  mobile	
  pubisher	
  with	
  the	
  good,	
  the	
  bad,	
  and	
  as	
  
much	
  data	
  as	
  I	
  can	
  share.	
  	
  	
  
2	
  
My	
  brother,	
  who	
  is	
  my	
  co-­‐founder,	
  had	
  previously	
  co-­‐founded	
  a	
  small	
  game	
  studio	
  
and	
  had	
  a	
  bad	
  experience	
  with	
  a	
  major	
  publisher	
  that	
  failed	
  to	
  market	
  their	
  game,	
  
then	
  refused	
  to	
  release	
  the	
  rights	
  to	
  do	
  the	
  sequel,	
  ulMmately	
  leading	
  to	
  the	
  studio	
  
dissolving.	
  We	
  wanted	
  to	
  open	
  up	
  more	
  opMons	
  for	
  developers	
  so	
  they	
  DIDN’T	
  need	
  
a	
  publisher	
  to	
  make	
  money	
  on	
  their	
  game.	
  
	
  
There	
  were	
  a	
  ton	
  of	
  generic	
  browser	
  game	
  sites	
  out	
  there,	
  with	
  no	
  persistence	
  
between	
  games	
  and	
  no	
  connecMon	
  beyond	
  leaderboards	
  between	
  players.	
  	
  
	
  
7	
  years	
  later	
  we’ve	
  got	
  more	
  than	
  80,000	
  games	
  on	
  our	
  plaDorm.	
  Most	
  of	
  our	
  web	
  
revenue	
  comes	
  from	
  the	
  400	
  free-­‐to-­‐play	
  games,	
  primarily	
  MMOs	
  and	
  CCGs,	
  and	
  the	
  
business	
  conMnues	
  to	
  grow	
  strongly	
  despite	
  dire	
  predicMons	
  of	
  the	
  death	
  of	
  web.	
  Our	
  
web	
  traffic	
  grew	
  about	
  30%	
  in	
  2013,	
  and	
  our	
  revenue	
  grew	
  55%.	
  GeYng	
  into	
  mobile	
  
is	
  an	
  expansion	
  of	
  our	
  current	
  business,	
  not	
  a	
  replacement.	
  
3	
  
It’s	
  not	
  like	
  we	
  just	
  started	
  thinking	
  about	
  mobile	
  last	
  year.	
  We’ve	
  been	
  thinking	
  
about	
  it	
  since	
  the	
  launch	
  of	
  the	
  iPhone.	
  But	
  the	
  app	
  store	
  was	
  such	
  a	
  closed	
  
ecosystem	
  that	
  we	
  didn’t	
  see	
  what	
  sort	
  of	
  role	
  an	
  social	
  plaDorm/distributor	
  could	
  
really	
  play	
  without	
  being	
  shut	
  down	
  by	
  Apple.	
  When	
  Android	
  came	
  out	
  we	
  thought	
  
there	
  was	
  more	
  of	
  an	
  opportunity	
  since	
  it	
  was	
  a	
  more	
  open	
  system.	
  So	
  we	
  built	
  a	
  
light	
  version	
  of	
  the	
  web	
  plaDorm	
  for	
  Android	
  called	
  Arcade.	
  But	
  it	
  turned	
  out	
  that	
  
Android	
  isn’t	
  so	
  open	
  to	
  anything	
  it	
  perceives	
  as	
  an	
  alternate	
  app	
  store,	
  and	
  Arcade	
  
got	
  yanked	
  the	
  first	
  day	
  we	
  launched.	
  A_er	
  some	
  discussion	
  we	
  reworked	
  some	
  
features	
  and	
  were	
  allowed	
  back	
  up,	
  but	
  we	
  were	
  quite	
  limited	
  because	
  we	
  couldn’t	
  a)	
  
sell	
  anything	
  or	
  b)	
  give	
  the	
  appearance	
  of	
  downloading	
  games.	
  UlMmately	
  those	
  
limitaMons	
  fundamentally	
  blocked	
  any	
  real	
  revenue	
  opportuniMes	
  for	
  the	
  Kongregate	
  
Arcade,	
  and	
  we	
  stopped	
  development	
  in	
  late	
  2011	
  when	
  Adobe	
  announce	
  they	
  were	
  
killing	
  mobile	
  Flash.	
  	
  
	
  
But	
  you	
  learn	
  as	
  much	
  or	
  more	
  from	
  your	
  failures	
  as	
  your	
  successes	
  and	
  we	
  got	
  a	
  lot	
  
out	
  of	
  the	
  experience	
  of	
  building	
  Arcade,	
  including	
  a	
  fair	
  amount	
  of	
  tech.	
  Some	
  other	
  
things	
  we	
  learned	
  is	
  that	
  despite	
  the	
  promises	
  of	
  HTML	
  5	
  and	
  Flash	
  mobile	
  the	
  
performance	
  of	
  browser	
  games	
  on	
  mobile	
  was	
  consistently	
  bad.	
  On	
  the	
  good	
  side	
  we	
  
learned	
  that	
  we	
  were	
  able	
  to	
  drive	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  traffic	
  from	
  Kongregate	
  &	
  Gamestop,	
  and	
  
are	
  now	
  up	
  to	
  2	
  million	
  installs	
  despite	
  mediocre	
  game	
  experiences	
  and	
  zero	
  UA.	
  
4	
  
A_er	
  we	
  stopped	
  development	
  on	
  Arcade	
  we	
  stepped	
  back	
  and	
  reconsidered	
  our	
  
strategy.	
  In	
  mobile	
  Apple	
  &	
  Google	
  are	
  the	
  game	
  plaDorms,	
  but	
  the	
  problem	
  we’ve	
  
always	
  striven	
  to	
  solve	
  with	
  our	
  plaDorm	
  –	
  developer	
  friendly	
  distribuMon	
  –	
  sMll	
  
exists.	
  	
  
	
  
Demand	
  for	
  games	
  is	
  fundamentally	
  inelasMc,	
  and	
  the	
  race	
  to	
  the	
  bofom	
  on	
  pricing	
  
in	
  the	
  early	
  days	
  of	
  the	
  app	
  store	
  has	
  put	
  developers	
  in	
  a	
  hole	
  it’s	
  hard	
  to	
  climb	
  out	
  
of.	
  Prices	
  for	
  paid	
  games	
  would	
  probably	
  have	
  to	
  be	
  in	
  the	
  $9.99-­‐$19.99	
  range	
  you	
  
see	
  in	
  the	
  PC	
  market	
  for	
  it	
  to	
  be	
  more	
  viable	
  
	
  
We	
  know	
  because	
  we	
  got	
  most	
  of	
  it	
  wrong	
  when	
  we	
  launched	
  our	
  kreds	
  plaDorm	
  
back	
  in	
  2008.	
  But	
  over	
  5	
  years	
  and	
  500+	
  games	
  doing	
  F2P	
  on	
  our	
  plaDorm	
  we’ve	
  
learned	
  a	
  lot.	
  I	
  expect	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  you	
  have	
  seen	
  previous	
  talks	
  we’ve	
  done.	
  
	
  
So	
  who	
  helps	
  developers	
  with	
  distribuMon	
  &	
  moneMzaMon?	
  A	
  publisher,	
  of	
  course.	
  	
  
5	
  
We	
  announced	
  a	
  $10M	
  publishing	
  fund	
  last	
  February	
  
	
  
Since	
  that’s	
  what	
  we	
  do	
  well	
  with	
  on	
  the	
  web	
  
Not	
  every	
  game	
  is	
  going	
  to	
  succeed	
  but	
  we	
  want	
  every	
  developer	
  to	
  feel	
  we’ve	
  
treated	
  them	
  well	
  work	
  with	
  us	
  again	
  
To	
  put	
  our	
  skin	
  in	
  the	
  game	
  along	
  with	
  the	
  dev.	
  A	
  publisher	
  should	
  share	
  the	
  risk	
  for	
  it	
  
to	
  be	
  a	
  true	
  partnership	
  
Cross-­‐promoMon	
  from	
  Kongregate	
  web,	
  our	
  parent	
  company	
  Gamestop,	
  and	
  
porDolio	
  games	
  
	
  
6	
  
6	
  of	
  the	
  live	
  games	
  are	
  new	
  Mtles,	
  but	
  2	
  (Lifle	
  Alchemist	
  &	
  Dragon	
  Storm	
  Gold)	
  were	
  
live	
  games	
  we’ve	
  taken	
  over	
  in	
  the	
  last	
  couple	
  of	
  months.	
  It’s	
  about	
  half	
  core	
  Mtles,	
  
including	
  3	
  CCGs	
  (Tyrant,	
  Bloodrealm,	
  and	
  Lifle	
  Alchemist)	
  and	
  half	
  casual	
  Mtles	
  like	
  
Sheep	
  Happens,	
  Run,	
  and	
  Endless	
  Boss	
  Fight.	
  	
  
7	
  
Here’s	
  a	
  list	
  of	
  the	
  Mtles	
  we	
  have	
  out	
  and	
  what	
  plaDorms	
  they’re	
  available	
  on	
  –	
  our	
  
goal	
  is	
  to	
  have	
  every	
  game	
  we	
  publish	
  available	
  on	
  Kong	
  web,	
  iOS,	
  and	
  Android	
  to	
  
maximize	
  success,	
  and	
  several	
  of	
  our	
  iniMal	
  games	
  are	
  properMes	
  already	
  successful	
  
on	
  Kong	
  web.	
  
	
  
Tyrant	
  and	
  Sheep	
  Happens	
  have	
  been	
  out	
  for	
  at	
  least	
  six	
  months	
  on	
  all	
  plaDorms,	
  but	
  
most	
  of	
  the	
  rest	
  of	
  the	
  live	
  games	
  are	
  only	
  on	
  one	
  plaDorm	
  or	
  have	
  launched	
  very	
  
recently,	
  usually	
  both.	
  Because	
  of	
  that	
  my	
  talk	
  is	
  going	
  to	
  concentrate	
  most	
  heavily	
  
on	
  Tyrant,	
  which	
  has	
  been	
  out	
  the	
  longest	
  and	
  has	
  the	
  best	
  quality	
  data.	
  
8	
  
Since	
  I’m	
  going	
  to	
  spend	
  so	
  much	
  of	
  the	
  talk	
  talking	
  about	
  Tyrant	
  I	
  thought	
  I’d	
  give	
  it	
  
a	
  larger	
  introducMon.	
  Tyrant	
  is	
  a	
  CCG	
  with	
  a	
  grify	
  sci-­‐fi	
  theme	
  built	
  originally	
  as	
  a	
  
Facebook	
  game	
  by	
  Synapse	
  Games,	
  a	
  small	
  studio	
  in	
  Chicago.	
  They	
  brought	
  it	
  to	
  
Kongregate	
  three	
  years	
  ago	
  and	
  it’s	
  been	
  one	
  of	
  our	
  most	
  popular	
  games	
  ever	
  since	
  
with	
  excepMonal	
  retenMon	
  and	
  good	
  if	
  not	
  great	
  moneMzaMon.	
  	
  
	
  
When	
  Synapse	
  started	
  working	
  with	
  us	
  to	
  publish	
  the	
  mobile	
  version	
  moneMzaMon	
  
was	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  things	
  we	
  focused	
  on	
  since	
  we	
  felt	
  that	
  there	
  was	
  a	
  big	
  opportunity	
  to	
  
improve	
  the	
  depth	
  of	
  spend	
  possible,	
  mostly	
  by	
  adding	
  in	
  some	
  deeper	
  card	
  
progression	
  and	
  fusion	
  systems,	
  but	
  also	
  by	
  increasing	
  the	
  card	
  prices.	
  Those	
  changes	
  
were	
  quite	
  effecMve,	
  and	
  though	
  retenMon	
  decreased	
  somewhat	
  relaMve	
  to	
  the	
  
original	
  version	
  the	
  overall	
  moneMzaMon	
  improved	
  significantly.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
9	
  
It	
  hit	
  the	
  top	
  60	
  in	
  the	
  gross	
  ranks	
  and	
  has	
  conMnued	
  to	
  grow.	
  
10	
  
I	
  menMoned	
  paid	
  UA	
  in	
  relaMon	
  to	
  scaling	
  so	
  let’s	
  start	
  with	
  what	
  everyone	
  is	
  
worrying	
  about.	
  Here	
  are	
  the	
  CPIs	
  we	
  by	
  paid	
  by	
  ad	
  network	
  for	
  Tyrant	
  in	
  Decemer:	
  
they	
  ranged	
  from	
  $2-­‐$8,	
  with	
  highly	
  targeted	
  campaigns	
  and	
  video	
  on	
  the	
  high	
  end.	
  
These	
  are	
  prefy	
  inMmidaMng	
  #s,	
  but	
  with	
  a	
  high	
  LTV	
  game	
  like	
  Tyrant	
  you	
  can	
  sMll	
  do	
  
it	
  profitably,	
  though	
  not	
  every	
  campaign	
  listed	
  here	
  is.	
  However	
  with	
  an	
  extended	
  
revenue	
  curve	
  like	
  Tyrant	
  has	
  (only	
  ~17%	
  of	
  the	
  6	
  month	
  ARPU	
  comes	
  in	
  the	
  first	
  
month)	
  it	
  takes	
  both	
  paMence	
  and	
  deep	
  pockets	
  to	
  wait	
  for	
  the	
  UA	
  to	
  pay	
  off.	
  	
  
11	
  
But	
  that’s	
  not	
  the	
  whole	
  story:	
  CPIs	
  wary	
  wildy	
  by	
  game.	
  We’ve	
  used	
  just	
  one	
  
network	
  to	
  get	
  an	
  apples-­‐to-­‐apples	
  comparison	
  there	
  so	
  here	
  our	
  average	
  CPIs	
  since	
  
September	
  for	
  most	
  of	
  our	
  games.	
  Games	
  in	
  hard-­‐core,	
  compeMMve	
  genres	
  like	
  CCGs	
  
and	
  MMOs	
  have	
  much	
  higher	
  CPIs	
  than	
  more	
  casual	
  games,	
  but	
  if	
  the	
  theme	
  is	
  
appealing	
  and/or	
  the	
  graphics	
  are	
  very	
  strong	
  the	
  price	
  comes	
  down	
  a	
  lot.	
  
12	
  
Now	
  take	
  the	
  daily	
  #s	
  here	
  with	
  a	
  grain	
  of	
  salt	
  because	
  the	
  sample	
  size	
  on	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  
these	
  days	
  is	
  small	
  and	
  there	
  were	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  moving	
  parts,	
  but	
  here	
  are	
  the	
  CPIs	
  on	
  
Facebook	
  for	
  Lionheart	
  over	
  the	
  last	
  90	
  days,	
  all	
  but	
  the	
  last	
  few	
  of	
  which	
  were	
  in	
  test	
  
markets.	
  As	
  you	
  can	
  see	
  CPIs	
  are	
  both	
  higher	
  in	
  test	
  markets	
  than	
  they	
  are	
  globally	
  
and	
  that	
  in	
  each	
  market	
  they	
  start	
  lower	
  and	
  rise	
  over	
  Mme.	
  This	
  is	
  a	
  natural	
  result	
  of	
  
saturaMng	
  a	
  market	
  and	
  a	
  source,	
  but	
  was	
  exaggerated	
  in	
  this	
  case	
  because	
  we	
  
weren’t	
  tesMng	
  and	
  refreshing	
  creaMves	
  at	
  the	
  rate	
  that	
  we	
  would	
  for	
  a	
  game	
  in	
  wide	
  
release.	
  To	
  fight	
  the	
  CPI	
  creep	
  you	
  need	
  to	
  be	
  tesMng	
  and	
  refreshing	
  creaMves	
  at	
  least	
  
every	
  6	
  weeks.	
  	
  
13	
  
A	
  lot	
  of	
  the	
  reason	
  we	
  can	
  make	
  high	
  CPIs	
  is	
  that	
  we	
  credit	
  paid	
  campaigns	
  with	
  some	
  
value	
  from	
  organic	
  users.	
  In	
  our	
  office	
  there	
  are	
  two	
  camps	
  on	
  what	
  mostly	
  drives	
  
organics:	
  one	
  is	
  that	
  paid	
  installs	
  are	
  helping	
  to	
  drive	
  chart	
  posiMon,	
  and	
  chart	
  
posiMon	
  then	
  drives	
  organic	
  installs,	
  the	
  other	
  that	
  players	
  are	
  telling	
  their	
  friends	
  
about	
  the	
  game.	
  I	
  think	
  organics	
  are	
  a	
  complicated	
  phenomenon	
  with	
  elements	
  of	
  
both,	
  but	
  long-­‐term	
  I	
  think	
  word	
  of	
  mouth	
  is	
  more	
  important,	
  especially	
  if	
  you’re	
  not	
  
in	
  the	
  upper	
  parts	
  of	
  the	
  charts	
  that	
  get	
  extensive	
  exposure.	
  
	
  
This	
  chart	
  shows	
  our	
  organic	
  and	
  paid	
  installs	
  for	
  Tyrant	
  on	
  IOS	
  since	
  launch,	
  along	
  
with	
  our	
  retained	
  DAU,	
  ie	
  our	
  DAU	
  less	
  new	
  installs	
  to	
  just	
  show	
  returning	
  users.	
  
Early	
  on	
  there’s	
  a	
  prefy	
  clear	
  relaMon	
  between	
  UA	
  and	
  organics,	
  parMcularly	
  
noMceable	
  where	
  we	
  spiked	
  UA	
  around	
  8/28	
  and	
  again	
  in	
  October.	
  But	
  long	
  term	
  the	
  
relaMonship	
  has	
  gofen	
  weaker	
  and	
  weaker,	
  to	
  the	
  point	
  now	
  where	
  organics	
  are	
  
higher	
  than	
  installs	
  from	
  paid	
  UA,	
  and	
  follow	
  the	
  pafern	
  of	
  our	
  retained	
  DAU	
  much	
  
more	
  closely.	
  I	
  think	
  that	
  while	
  people	
  are	
  most	
  likely	
  to	
  share	
  a	
  game	
  when	
  they	
  
start	
  playing	
  it	
  but	
  there’s	
  sMll	
  some	
  chance	
  of	
  sharing	
  it	
  at	
  any	
  point	
  while	
  they	
  
conMnue	
  playing	
  it,	
  so	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  paid	
  UA	
  to	
  installs	
  is	
  long-­‐term	
  and	
  cumulaMve	
  
and	
  likely	
  cross-­‐plaDorm,	
  since	
  the	
  friend	
  of	
  the	
  iPhone	
  user	
  might	
  have	
  an	
  Android,	
  
and	
  vice	
  versa.	
  
	
  
Also	
  changes	
  in	
  your	
  game	
  can	
  help	
  drive	
  word	
  of	
  mouth.	
  	
  Anyone	
  who’s	
  been	
  	
  
14	
  
It	
  was	
  prefy	
  clear	
  from	
  the	
  last	
  chart	
  that	
  while	
  UA	
  is	
  important,	
  the	
  app	
  store	
  
feature	
  we	
  got	
  for	
  Tyrant	
  along	
  with	
  the	
  Gamestop	
  promoMon	
  were	
  just	
  as	
  important	
  
in	
  building	
  our	
  DAU.	
  The	
  effect	
  is	
  much	
  more	
  dramaMc	
  on	
  Android	
  since	
  we	
  were	
  able	
  
to	
  get	
  more	
  and	
  larger	
  features	
  there.	
  	
  
	
  
We’ve	
  been	
  able	
  to	
  secure	
  features	
  on	
  for	
  almost	
  all	
  of	
  the	
  games	
  we	
  have	
  live	
  
globally	
  on	
  each	
  plaDorm	
  so	
  are	
  starMng	
  to	
  get	
  a	
  feel	
  for	
  how	
  many	
  installs	
  you	
  get	
  
from	
  parMcular	
  types	
  of	
  features.	
  Apple	
  generally	
  features	
  games	
  primarily	
  at	
  launch,	
  
prefers	
  indie-­‐feeling	
  and	
  more	
  casual	
  games,	
  and	
  keeps	
  their	
  categories/placements	
  
fairly	
  consistent.	
  Google	
  is	
  more	
  open	
  to	
  non-­‐launch	
  features	
  and	
  refeatures	
  of	
  
games	
  with	
  good	
  metrics,	
  which	
  is	
  nice,	
  but	
  the	
  feature	
  value	
  is	
  much	
  more	
  variable	
  
because	
  their	
  arrangement	
  changes	
  more.	
  	
  
15	
  
And	
  will	
  have	
  similar	
  qualiMes	
  as	
  long	
  as	
  the	
  control	
  scheme	
  &	
  playability	
  are	
  similar.	
  
Run	
  is	
  a	
  fast-­‐paced	
  endless	
  runner	
  with	
  instant	
  respawn	
  that’s	
  been	
  a	
  viral	
  traffic	
  
juggernaut	
  on	
  Kongregate	
  web.	
  When	
  it	
  launched	
  on	
  Android	
  on	
  December	
  we	
  
seeded	
  it	
  with	
  some	
  promoMon	
  on	
  Kongregate	
  and	
  it	
  went	
  viral,	
  hiYng	
  1.5M	
  
downloads	
  without	
  any	
  further	
  markeMng	
  or	
  features.	
  There’s	
  no	
  easy	
  way	
  to	
  tell	
  
how	
  much	
  was	
  exisMng	
  fans	
  picking	
  up	
  the	
  Mtle	
  or	
  new	
  viral	
  spread,	
  though	
  I	
  suspect	
  
a	
  bit	
  of	
  both.	
  But	
  I	
  think	
  that	
  building	
  a	
  fan	
  base	
  on	
  web	
  and	
  then	
  using	
  that	
  to	
  help	
  
launch	
  a	
  game	
  on	
  mobile	
  is	
  a	
  very	
  underrated	
  strategy.	
  Bloons	
  Tower	
  Defense	
  5	
  has	
  
been	
  in	
  the	
  top	
  100	
  grossing	
  charts	
  for	
  more	
  than	
  a	
  year	
  with	
  no	
  markeMng	
  fueled	
  by	
  
the	
  huge	
  audience	
  they	
  built	
  for	
  that	
  series	
  on	
  the	
  web	
  over	
  the	
  last	
  5	
  years.	
  	
  	
  
16	
  
Bloodrealm	
  is	
  a	
  CCG	
  from	
  Making	
  Fun,	
  with	
  the	
  same	
  gameplay	
  and	
  features	
  
between	
  the	
  web	
  version	
  and	
  mobile	
  though	
  with	
  a	
  lifle	
  bit	
  of	
  lag.	
  A_er	
  a	
  substanMal	
  
beta	
  period	
  on	
  Kong	
  (which	
  allowed	
  them	
  to	
  make	
  substanMal	
  improvements	
  in	
  
metrics)	
  the	
  game	
  was	
  pushed	
  broadly	
  on	
  both	
  Kongregate	
  &	
  iOS	
  in	
  November.	
  
While	
  day	
  to	
  day	
  there’s	
  variaMon	
  the	
  average	
  ARPDAU	
  between	
  the	
  two	
  plaDorms	
  is	
  
idenMcal	
  at	
  $0.19.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Now	
  there	
  are	
  two	
  caveats	
  to	
  this	
  data:	
  1)	
  developers	
  have	
  generally	
  reported	
  
Kongregate	
  LTVs	
  as	
  2-­‐3x	
  that	
  of	
  other	
  plaDorms	
  such	
  as	
  Facebook,	
  so	
  comparison	
  
between	
  the	
  FB	
  version	
  and	
  a	
  mobile	
  version	
  would	
  probably	
  reflect	
  a	
  similar	
  
difference.	
  2)	
  ARPDAU	
  on	
  its	
  own	
  can	
  be	
  a	
  decepMve	
  stat	
  because	
  two	
  games	
  with	
  
similar	
  ARPDAUs	
  but	
  different	
  retenMon	
  rates	
  will	
  have	
  very	
  different	
  LTVs.	
  In	
  this	
  
case	
  however	
  I	
  can	
  confirm	
  that	
  the	
  LTV	
  by	
  cohort	
  is	
  also	
  virtually	
  idenMcal	
  between	
  
the	
  two	
  plaDorms,	
  and	
  thus	
  retenMon	
  as	
  well.	
  And	
  finally	
  if	
  you’re	
  wondering	
  why	
  I’m	
  
using	
  a	
  stat	
  I	
  don’t	
  care	
  for	
  like	
  ARPDAU	
  it’s	
  because	
  I	
  can	
  safely	
  talk	
  about	
  it	
  and	
  
downloads	
  without	
  revealing	
  our	
  total	
  revenue,	
  which	
  as	
  part	
  of	
  a	
  public	
  company	
  I	
  
have	
  to	
  be	
  careful	
  about,	
  while	
  sMll	
  managing	
  to	
  share	
  relevant	
  informaMon.	
  
17	
  
In	
  fact	
  more	
  than	
  half	
  of	
  our	
  revenue	
  is	
  coming	
  from	
  Android	
  right	
  now	
  because	
  our	
  
top	
  performing	
  game,	
  Tyrant,	
  has	
  done	
  so	
  well	
  there.	
  
18	
  
Here’s	
  Tyrant’s	
  breakdown	
  of	
  revenue	
  by	
  device.	
  Overall	
  our	
  revenue	
  is	
  closer	
  to	
  
50/50	
  because	
  other	
  games	
  have	
  done	
  befer	
  on	
  iOS.	
  One	
  factor	
  besides	
  the	
  heavy	
  
Google	
  features	
  for	
  Tyrant	
  may	
  be	
  that	
  it’s	
  more	
  popular	
  on	
  phones	
  than	
  tablets	
  for	
  
some	
  reason,	
  perhaps	
  related	
  to	
  genre.	
  Lionheart	
  TacMcs,	
  which	
  we	
  launched	
  two	
  
weeks	
  ago	
  a_er	
  an	
  3	
  months	
  in	
  test	
  markets,	
  gets	
  50-­‐55%	
  of	
  it’s	
  revenue	
  from	
  iPad,	
  
and	
  Tyrant	
  has	
  always	
  ranked	
  lower	
  on	
  the	
  iPad	
  grossing	
  charts	
  than	
  the	
  iPhone.	
  
19	
  
So	
  let’s	
  dig	
  into	
  the	
  comparaMve	
  #s	
  by	
  plaDorm.	
  Here’s	
  a	
  chart	
  of	
  Tyrant’s	
  ARPDAU	
  
since	
  global	
  launch	
  on	
  each	
  plaDorm.	
  On	
  average	
  Android	
  ARPDAU	
  runs	
  10-­‐15%	
  
lower	
  than	
  iOS	
  except	
  in	
  the	
  mid-­‐November	
  to	
  early	
  January	
  periods	
  when	
  there	
  was	
  
a	
  big	
  influx	
  of	
  new	
  traffic	
  on	
  Android	
  from	
  Google	
  features.	
  	
  
	
  
But	
  the	
  overall	
  #s	
  are	
  actually	
  masking	
  a	
  lot,	
  as	
  the	
  traffic	
  mix	
  is	
  quite	
  different	
  
between	
  plaDorms.	
  The	
  majority	
  of	
  our	
  traffic	
  on	
  iOS	
  has	
  come	
  through	
  paid	
  user	
  
acquisiMon	
  and	
  Gamestop	
  promoMon	
  in	
  North	
  America	
  &	
  Western	
  Europe	
  while	
  on	
  
Android	
  our	
  traffic	
  is	
  more	
  geographically	
  mixed	
  since	
  the	
  majority	
  came	
  through	
  
features.	
  	
  
	
  
20	
  
Here’s	
  a	
  breakdown	
  of	
  our	
  installs	
  and	
  revenue	
  by	
  country.	
  Installs	
  are	
  fairly	
  diverse	
  
but	
  revenue	
  is	
  completely	
  dominated	
  by	
  English-­‐speaking	
  countries,	
  Western	
  Europe,	
  
and	
  Scandinavia	
  though	
  Russia	
  is	
  also	
  fairly	
  strong.	
  
21	
  
Here	
  is	
  the	
  ARPDAU	
  by	
  plaDorm	
  for	
  just	
  US	
  traffic	
  –	
  outside	
  the	
  heavy	
  feature	
  traffic	
  
periods	
  Android	
  ARPDAU	
  is	
  very	
  close	
  and	
  o_en	
  befer	
  than	
  iOS.	
  
22	
  
In	
  Germany	
  Android	
  ARPDAU	
  is	
  usually	
  befer	
  than	
  iOS,	
  parMcularly	
  in	
  the	
  last	
  few	
  
months.	
  
23	
  
Whereas	
  the	
  moneMzaMon	
  of	
  our	
  Russian	
  Android	
  traffic	
  is	
  quite	
  low	
  relaMve	
  to	
  both	
  
Russian	
  iOS	
  ARPDAU	
  and	
  US	
  or	
  German	
  Android	
  traffic.	
  
24	
  
What’s	
  going	
  on	
  becomes	
  clearer	
  when	
  you	
  dig	
  into	
  the	
  devices.	
  Most	
  of	
  the	
  German	
  
devices	
  are	
  high-­‐end	
  Samsung	
  Galaxy	
  phones,	
  whereas	
  Russian	
  devices	
  are	
  mostly	
  
fragmented,	
  lower-­‐end	
  devices.	
  
25	
  
Devices	
  are	
  a	
  prefy	
  good	
  proxy	
  for	
  demographics:	
  people	
  with	
  new,	
  high-­‐end	
  devices	
  
tend	
  to	
  be	
  more	
  wealthy	
  and	
  willing	
  to	
  spend	
  than	
  those	
  with	
  older	
  or	
  cheaper	
  
devices	
  –	
  the	
  iPhone	
  5s	
  has2x	
  the	
  ARPDAU	
  of	
  the	
  4s.	
  Children	
  are	
  more	
  likely	
  to	
  be	
  
using	
  iPods.	
  But	
  aside	
  from	
  the	
  demographics	
  of	
  the	
  users:	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  the	
  older	
  devices	
  
may	
  just	
  not	
  play	
  the	
  game	
  very	
  well.	
  
26	
  
Everyone	
  talks	
  about	
  Android	
  fragmentaMon,	
  and	
  it	
  is	
  very	
  real.	
  But	
  it’s	
  been	
  7	
  years	
  
since	
  the	
  iPhone	
  launched	
  and	
  4	
  since	
  the	
  iPad	
  and	
  as	
  you	
  can	
  tell	
  from	
  this	
  chart	
  
there	
  are	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  different	
  iOS	
  devices	
  out	
  there,	
  too,	
  with	
  different	
  screen	
  sizes,	
  
resoluMons,	
  and	
  levels	
  of	
  processing	
  power,	
  and	
  since	
  nearly	
  every	
  model	
  sold	
  well	
  
they’re	
  sMll	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  the	
  older	
  devices	
  in	
  use.	
  It’s	
  easy	
  to	
  hit	
  performance	
  problem,	
  
crashes	
  and	
  instability	
  from	
  too	
  many	
  high-­‐res	
  assets	
  or	
  3D	
  effects	
  on	
  lower-­‐end	
  
devices.	
  This	
  chart	
  is	
  the	
  tutorial	
  funnel	
  for	
  Lionheart	
  TacMcs	
  early	
  in	
  its	
  test	
  market	
  
period.	
  It’s	
  a	
  beauMful	
  3D	
  game	
  that	
  looks	
  fabulous	
  on	
  reMna	
  devices	
  but	
  as	
  you	
  can	
  
see	
  from	
  the	
  chart	
  had	
  very	
  sharp	
  drop-­‐offs	
  on	
  older	
  iPhones	
  and	
  iPod	
  touches.	
  
	
  
The	
  developer	
  (Emerald	
  City	
  Games)	
  was	
  able	
  to	
  opMmize	
  for	
  the	
  lower-­‐end	
  devices	
  
by	
  using	
  different	
  menus	
  and	
  textures	
  there,	
  and	
  removing	
  lightmaps	
  and	
  other	
  
visual	
  effects	
  during	
  bafles	
  but	
  managing	
  all	
  these	
  different	
  version	
  has	
  been	
  more	
  
challenging	
  and	
  Mme-­‐consuming	
  than	
  they	
  expected.	
  	
  
27	
  
While	
  the	
  device	
  fragmentaMon	
  on	
  Android	
  is	
  worse	
  than	
  iOS	
  the	
  tools	
  they	
  give	
  you	
  
to	
  manage	
  it	
  are	
  much,	
  much	
  befer.	
  Detailed	
  crash	
  &	
  freeze	
  reports	
  are	
  extremely	
  
helpful	
  in	
  diagnosing	
  and	
  fixing	
  issues	
  and	
  if	
  there	
  are	
  devices	
  that	
  you	
  just	
  can’t	
  
support	
  you	
  can	
  specifically	
  blacklist	
  them.	
  You	
  can	
  also	
  block	
  downloads	
  based	
  on	
  
other	
  criteria,	
  such	
  as	
  screen	
  size,	
  which	
  is	
  very	
  helpful	
  in	
  blocking	
  the	
  proliferaMon	
  of	
  
low-­‐end	
  devices	
  in	
  Southeast	
  Asia.	
  Being	
  able	
  to	
  push	
  beta	
  builds	
  through	
  the	
  
developer	
  console	
  and	
  then	
  test	
  them	
  as	
  if	
  they	
  were	
  live	
  is	
  invaluable,	
  second	
  only	
  
being	
  able	
  to	
  push	
  a	
  build	
  live	
  to	
  users	
  whenever	
  you	
  want	
  and	
  need	
  to.	
  	
  
28	
  
Unfortunately	
  the	
  google	
  transacMon	
  APIs	
  are	
  not	
  as	
  user	
  friendly.	
  A	
  good	
  example	
  is	
  
that	
  item	
  prices	
  are	
  returned	
  with	
  a	
  currency	
  symbol	
  rather	
  than	
  a	
  currency	
  code,	
  so	
  
it’s	
  impossible	
  to	
  disMnguish	
  something	
  charged	
  in	
  US	
  dollars,	
  Canadian	
  dollars,	
  or	
  
Mexican	
  pesos,	
  which	
  all	
  use	
  the	
  same	
  sign.	
  We	
  work	
  around	
  this	
  by	
  puYng	
  the	
  price	
  
in	
  the	
  item	
  name	
  and	
  parsing	
  it	
  from	
  there	
  but	
  it’s	
  a	
  bit	
  of	
  a	
  pain	
  to	
  manage.	
  
	
  
What’s	
  more	
  than	
  a	
  pain	
  is	
  that	
  Google	
  is	
  very	
  slow	
  to	
  verify	
  purchases	
  and	
  
overzealous	
  in	
  their	
  idenMficaMon	
  of	
  fraud,	
  especially	
  on	
  higher-­‐priced	
  items.	
  This	
  
causes	
  customer	
  frustraMon	
  and	
  forces	
  you	
  to	
  ping	
  their	
  servers	
  to	
  check	
  all	
  the	
  users	
  
transacMons	
  every	
  Mme	
  they	
  enter	
  the	
  game	
  to	
  make	
  sure	
  they’re	
  granted	
  what	
  
they’ve	
  bought.	
  
29	
  
The	
  receipt	
  verificaMon	
  I	
  menMoned	
  on	
  the	
  last	
  slide	
  is	
  really	
  important	
  and	
  this	
  
graph	
  shows	
  why.	
  	
  It’s	
  the	
  first	
  two	
  weeks	
  of	
  iOS	
  revenue	
  reported	
  by	
  Sheep	
  
Happens,	
  a	
  wacky	
  endless	
  runner	
  we	
  launched	
  last	
  fall,	
  which	
  at	
  the	
  Mme	
  was	
  not	
  
checking	
  Apple’s	
  servers	
  that	
  a	
  purchase	
  was	
  valid	
  before	
  granMng	
  the	
  currency	
  and	
  
many	
  users	
  with	
  jailbroken	
  phones	
  took	
  advantage	
  of	
  the	
  omission.	
  It	
  turns	
  out	
  when	
  
IAP	
  is	
  free	
  demand	
  is	
  very	
  high!	
  While	
  the	
  game	
  did	
  decently	
  actual	
  revenue	
  was	
  of	
  
course	
  a	
  fracMon	
  of	
  the	
  numbers	
  shown	
  here.	
  I	
  promised	
  you	
  real	
  numbers:	
  these	
  are	
  
simultanously	
  real	
  and	
  very	
  inaccurate.	
  
	
  
Nearly	
  all	
  of	
  our	
  developers	
  had	
  some	
  degree	
  of	
  trouble	
  implemenMng	
  receipt	
  
verificaMon,	
  either	
  in	
  the	
  actual	
  receipt	
  verificaMon	
  like	
  Sheep	
  Happens	
  or	
  
incorporaMng	
  it	
  correctly	
  in	
  analyMcs	
  calls	
  and	
  it	
  wasted	
  a	
  bunch	
  of	
  Mme	
  for	
  
everybody.	
  We’ve	
  baked	
  it	
  into	
  our	
  SDK	
  now	
  so	
  developers	
  don’t	
  have	
  to	
  deal	
  with	
  it	
  
but	
  it	
  sMll	
  causes	
  legacy	
  problems	
  for	
  some	
  games,	
  like	
  Sheep	
  Happens,	
  because	
  
players	
  aren’t	
  forced	
  to	
  update	
  so	
  old	
  client	
  versions	
  conMnue	
  to	
  send	
  bad	
  data.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
30	
  
I	
  did	
  a	
  talk	
  at	
  GDC	
  Next	
  last	
  fall	
  about	
  data	
  problems	
  and	
  piDalls	
  and	
  used	
  this	
  image	
  
to	
  talk	
  about	
  how	
  under	
  the	
  surface	
  data	
  is	
  o_en	
  a	
  steaming	
  pile	
  of	
  corrupted,	
  
inaccurate	
  shit.	
  That’s	
  true	
  for	
  web	
  data	
  but	
  it’s	
  twice	
  as	
  true	
  for	
  mobile	
  for	
  a	
  several	
  
major	
  reasons	
  that	
  are	
  interrelated:	
  connecMon	
  issues,	
  client	
  unreliablity	
  and	
  client	
  
fragmentaMon.	
  	
  
	
  
On	
  the	
  web	
  there	
  are	
  just	
  a	
  few	
  major	
  clients,	
  aka	
  browsers,	
  that	
  provide	
  data	
  in	
  a	
  
standardized	
  way,	
  events	
  nearly	
  always	
  occur	
  online	
  so	
  you	
  can	
  rely	
  on	
  your	
  own	
  
server	
  for	
  Mmestamps,	
  and	
  your	
  biggest	
  headaches	
  come	
  from	
  idenMfying	
  people	
  
uniquely.	
  	
  
	
  
On	
  mobile	
  you	
  need	
  to	
  rely	
  on	
  the	
  client	
  much	
  more,	
  both	
  because	
  important	
  events	
  
occur	
  offline	
  and	
  because	
  the	
  client	
  itself	
  is	
  crucial	
  informaMon.	
  But	
  even	
  something	
  
as	
  basic	
  as	
  the	
  Mmestamp	
  can	
  be	
  reported	
  very	
  differently	
  from	
  plaDorm	
  to	
  device	
  to	
  
region.	
  We	
  recently	
  had	
  problems	
  with	
  the	
  data	
  from	
  Lionheart	
  TacMcs	
  because	
  a	
  
bunch	
  of	
  clients	
  from	
  Southeast	
  Asia	
  were	
  reporMng	
  the	
  date	
  in	
  the	
  Buddhist	
  era	
  
calendar,	
  where	
  it’s	
  2557	
  instead	
  of	
  2014	
  and	
  if	
  you	
  don’t	
  have	
  the	
  right	
  Mme	
  for	
  
events	
  you’re	
  screwed.	
  
31	
  
We’ve	
  built	
  our	
  own	
  SDK	
  for	
  developers	
  to	
  use	
  on	
  games	
  we’re	
  publishing	
  to	
  take	
  
advantage	
  of	
  Kongregate	
  logins	
  and	
  badges	
  and	
  other	
  features,	
  and	
  have	
  now	
  rolled	
  
analyMcs	
  into	
  it,	
  but	
  Swrve,	
  Leanplum,	
  Kontagent	
  and	
  many	
  other	
  commercial	
  
services	
  will	
  do	
  a	
  much	
  befer	
  job	
  than	
  you’ll	
  do	
  on	
  your	
  own.	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
32	
  
It’s	
  tempMng	
  to	
  instrument	
  your	
  game	
  from	
  the	
  start	
  with	
  everything	
  you	
  think	
  you	
  
might	
  want	
  to	
  know	
  but	
  you’re	
  not	
  likely	
  to	
  get	
  it	
  all	
  right,	
  it	
  will	
  be	
  overwhelming	
  to	
  
QA,	
  and	
  expensive	
  to	
  store,	
  which	
  is	
  especially	
  frustraMng	
  if	
  you	
  know	
  it’s	
  garbage.	
  
We’ve	
  moved	
  to	
  a	
  staged	
  approach	
  with	
  analyMcs	
  implementaMons	
  where	
  we	
  have	
  
developers	
  implement	
  the	
  most	
  crucial	
  stuff:	
  player	
  idenMficaMon,	
  sessions,	
  and	
  
transacMons	
  (crawl).	
  Once	
  that	
  is	
  QAed	
  move	
  on	
  to	
  basic	
  game-­‐specific	
  informaMon	
  
like	
  tutorial	
  compleMon,	
  level	
  progress,	
  win	
  rates,	
  and	
  pvp	
  parMcipaMon	
  which	
  are	
  the	
  
most	
  acMonable.	
  Finally	
  once	
  that’s	
  solid	
  it’s	
  Mme	
  to	
  run	
  with	
  the	
  really	
  detailed	
  
informaMon	
  if	
  the	
  game	
  is	
  deep	
  enough	
  to	
  warrant	
  it.	
  Endless	
  runners,	
  ironically,	
  
probably	
  only	
  need	
  crawl/walk	
  whereas	
  that	
  last	
  stage	
  of	
  data	
  is	
  very	
  important	
  in	
  
most	
  mulMplayer	
  games.	
  
	
  
33	
  
SomeMmes	
  the	
  hardest	
  thing	
  to	
  know	
  is	
  that	
  there	
  IS	
  a	
  problem,	
  but	
  if	
  you’re	
  cross-­‐
checking	
  across	
  mulMple	
  sources	
  they	
  are	
  easier	
  to	
  find.	
  We’re	
  constantly	
  cross-­‐
checking	
  our	
  internal	
  analyMcs	
  against	
  AppAnnie	
  and	
  Ad-­‐X,	
  which	
  we	
  use	
  for	
  
markeMng	
  tracking,	
  and	
  will	
  soon	
  add	
  Swrve	
  which	
  will	
  add	
  another	
  data	
  point.	
  
	
  
	
  
34	
  
This	
  is	
  something	
  that	
  came	
  up	
  for	
  us	
  in	
  part	
  because	
  of	
  the	
  gap	
  between	
  a	
  
publisher’s	
  commitment	
  to	
  analyMcs	
  and	
  the	
  developer	
  –	
  some	
  of	
  our	
  developers	
  are	
  
as	
  into	
  analyMcs	
  as	
  we	
  are,	
  but	
  some	
  have	
  been	
  implemenMng	
  the	
  schema	
  more	
  for	
  
us	
  than	
  for	
  them.	
  The	
  result	
  is	
  skimpy	
  tesMng	
  on	
  their	
  side	
  and	
  in	
  our	
  hurry	
  we	
  
haven’t	
  always	
  QAed	
  enough	
  either.	
  On	
  several	
  games	
  we	
  launched	
  into	
  test	
  market	
  
with	
  fundamentally	
  bad	
  data	
  and	
  it	
  was	
  a	
  waste	
  of	
  both	
  Mme	
  and	
  markeMng	
  $s.	
  
Everything	
  doesn’t	
  have	
  to	
  be	
  perfect	
  yet	
  but	
  you	
  need	
  at	
  least	
  the	
  basics	
  for	
  
retenMon,	
  revenue,	
  and	
  player	
  progress	
  tracking.	
  
	
  
	
  
35	
  
A	
  game	
  with	
  bad	
  data	
  is	
  a	
  black	
  box.	
  You	
  might	
  have	
  a	
  great	
  game,	
  and	
  it	
  doesn’t	
  
mafer.	
  More	
  likely	
  you	
  have	
  a	
  game	
  that	
  could	
  be	
  befer	
  but	
  without	
  data	
  it’s	
  hard	
  
to	
  know	
  even	
  what	
  direcMon	
  to	
  go.	
  Now	
  I’m	
  not	
  in	
  any	
  way	
  in	
  the	
  school	
  that	
  thinks	
  
you	
  should	
  be	
  A/B	
  tesMng	
  every	
  bufon	
  color	
  –	
  for	
  games	
  to	
  have	
  soul	
  and	
  to	
  
innovate	
  you	
  need	
  to	
  look	
  beyond	
  data.	
  But	
  data	
  is	
  crucial	
  in	
  diagnosing	
  what	
  is	
  and	
  
isn’t	
  working,	
  generaMng	
  theories	
  of	
  why,	
  and	
  eventually	
  confirming	
  if	
  your	
  changes	
  
had	
  the	
  effect	
  you	
  expected.	
  	
  
	
  
Sheep	
  Happens	
  was	
  a	
  black	
  box	
  –as	
  you	
  saw	
  earlier	
  the	
  data	
  from	
  the	
  game	
  was	
  
quite	
  messy,	
  and	
  we	
  launched	
  with	
  them	
  only	
  parMally	
  fixed	
  and	
  a	
  hazy	
  view	
  of	
  the	
  
metrics	
  and	
  issues	
  with	
  the	
  game.	
  We’ve	
  done	
  our	
  best	
  guessing	
  at	
  what	
  needed	
  
improvement	
  but	
  with	
  so	
  much	
  corrupt	
  data	
  in	
  the	
  system	
  it’s	
  difficult	
  to	
  tell	
  if	
  it	
  has	
  
had	
  much	
  effect.	
  Unfortunately	
  the	
  answer	
  is	
  probably	
  not.	
  
	
  
	
  
36	
  
And	
  you	
  can	
  really	
  improve	
  your	
  game	
  over	
  Mme.	
  Here’s	
  Tyrant’s	
  ARPDAU	
  chart	
  again	
  
which	
  you	
  can	
  see	
  increased	
  dramaMcally	
  over	
  Mme	
  even	
  with	
  conMnuing	
  influxes	
  of	
  
new	
  traffic.	
  Since	
  they	
  launched	
  last	
  August	
  they’ve	
  pushed	
  nearly	
  20	
  builds,	
  nearly	
  
all	
  with	
  various	
  fixes	
  for	
  UI	
  issues,	
  performance	
  across	
  devices,	
  and	
  bug	
  along	
  with	
  
constant	
  tweaking	
  of	
  the	
  matchmaking	
  algorithm,	
  all	
  working	
  to	
  improve	
  the	
  base	
  
player	
  experience.	
  	
  
	
  
Along	
  with	
  that	
  every	
  month	
  or	
  so	
  Synapse	
  has	
  done	
  a	
  release	
  of	
  a	
  major	
  new	
  system	
  
to	
  increase	
  the	
  depth	
  of	
  the	
  game,	
  parMcularly	
  the	
  late	
  game.	
  Those	
  features	
  don’t	
  
necessarily	
  drive	
  moneMzaMon	
  themselves,	
  but	
  they	
  increase	
  player	
  engagement	
  and	
  
retenMon	
  without	
  which	
  there	
  can	
  be	
  no	
  moneMzaMon.	
  
	
  
What	
  drives	
  the	
  revenue	
  spikes	
  you	
  see	
  is	
  the	
  regular	
  release	
  of	
  new	
  content,	
  
parMcularly	
  of	
  limited	
  Mme	
  events	
  with	
  rewards,	
  which	
  are	
  Med	
  to	
  the	
  release	
  of	
  new	
  
gacha	
  boxes	
  and	
  occasional	
  special	
  offers.	
  
37	
  
Last	
  summer	
  when	
  we	
  first	
  started	
  launching	
  games	
  we	
  were	
  expecMng	
  to	
  spend	
  4,	
  
maybe	
  6	
  weeks	
  in	
  test	
  markets	
  and	
  we	
  pushed	
  our	
  first	
  two	
  games,	
  Tyrant	
  and	
  Sheep	
  
Happens	
  in	
  that	
  Mme	
  frame.	
  We	
  had	
  some	
  internal	
  deadlines	
  that	
  we	
  needed	
  to	
  hit	
  –	
  
the	
  games	
  needed	
  to	
  be	
  out	
  on	
  both	
  iOS	
  &	
  Android	
  by	
  the	
  beginning	
  of	
  September	
  to	
  
get	
  significant	
  promoMon	
  from	
  Gamestop	
  because	
  once	
  GTA	
  V	
  and	
  the	
  new	
  consoles	
  
started	
  launching	
  there	
  wouldn’t	
  be	
  an	
  opportunity	
  again	
  unMl	
  a_er	
  Christmas.	
  	
  
	
  
For	
  Tyrant	
  this	
  was	
  the	
  right	
  call	
  –	
  while	
  the	
  game	
  was	
  missing	
  some	
  features	
  that	
  we	
  
knew	
  were	
  going	
  to	
  be	
  important	
  long-­‐term,	
  like	
  guilds,	
  and	
  that	
  the	
  UI	
  and	
  
matchmaking	
  needed	
  more	
  tweaking	
  the	
  game	
  was	
  in	
  fundamentally	
  good	
  shape	
  
with	
  solid	
  data	
  and	
  metrics.	
  We	
  didn’t	
  get	
  the	
  fullest	
  possible	
  value	
  from	
  our	
  early	
  
Apple	
  feature	
  but	
  that	
  was	
  more	
  than	
  made	
  up	
  for	
  by	
  the	
  value	
  we	
  got	
  from	
  
Gamestop	
  promoMon.	
  	
  
	
  
But	
  Sheep	
  Happens	
  was	
  a	
  black	
  box	
  that	
  wasn’t	
  ready.	
  The	
  game	
  did	
  okay	
  anyway,	
  
and	
  has	
  been	
  profitable	
  for	
  both	
  us	
  and	
  the	
  developer,	
  but	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  the	
  heavy	
  
Apple	
  features	
  we	
  secured	
  for	
  it	
  at	
  launch	
  were	
  likely	
  much,	
  much	
  less	
  than	
  they	
  
could	
  have	
  been.	
  	
  
	
  
Holding	
  a	
  game	
  longer	
  in	
  test	
  markets	
  definitely	
  has	
  some	
  costs,	
  and	
  the	
  pros	
  and	
  
cons	
  need	
  to	
  be	
  weighed	
  carefully.	
  If	
  you’re	
  not	
  going	
  to	
  get	
  a	
  launch	
  feature	
  or	
  	
  
38	
  
Staying	
  longer	
  in	
  test	
  markets	
  fits	
  in	
  with	
  something	
  I	
  like	
  to	
  say,	
  which	
  is	
  that	
  things	
  
are	
  a	
  marathon,	
  not	
  a	
  sprint.	
  It’s	
  definitely	
  true	
  that	
  free-­‐to-­‐play	
  games	
  are	
  a	
  
marathon.	
  Good	
  games	
  can	
  grow	
  and	
  maintain	
  revenue	
  for	
  years,	
  as	
  long	
  as	
  the	
  
systems	
  keep	
  the	
  players	
  engaged	
  and	
  the	
  developer	
  can	
  keep	
  adding	
  content	
  and	
  
events.	
  Tyrant	
  started	
  solid,	
  but	
  a	
  lifle	
  slow,	
  and	
  at	
  launch	
  both	
  Synapse	
  and	
  us	
  were	
  
a	
  lifle	
  disappointed	
  since	
  we	
  thought	
  the	
  game	
  was	
  capable	
  of	
  more.	
  Over	
  8	
  months	
  
the	
  game	
  has	
  come	
  to	
  meet	
  and	
  exceed	
  our	
  expectaMons,	
  hiYng	
  top	
  50	
  grossing	
  in	
  
the	
  US	
  iPhone	
  charts	
  just	
  last	
  week.	
  A	
  crucial	
  part	
  of	
  that	
  long-­‐term	
  growth	
  story	
  is	
  
the	
  relentless	
  pace	
  at	
  which	
  Synapse	
  worked	
  pushing	
  content	
  and	
  changes,	
  making	
  
mistakes,	
  learning	
  from	
  them,	
  fixing	
  them,	
  pushing	
  for	
  the	
  kind	
  of	
  LTVs	
  that	
  make	
  
paid	
  UA	
  profitable,	
  even	
  for	
  a	
  niche	
  game	
  with	
  a	
  grify	
  theme.	
  You	
  can’t	
  sprint	
  
forever,	
  and	
  since	
  January	
  Synapse	
  has	
  sefled	
  into	
  a	
  steadier,	
  more	
  sustainable	
  
rhythm	
  but	
  the	
  type	
  of	
  drive	
  and	
  speed	
  they’ve	
  shown	
  is	
  something	
  we	
  now	
  look	
  for	
  
in	
  every	
  team	
  we	
  sign,	
  because	
  the	
  rate	
  at	
  which	
  you	
  improve	
  a	
  game	
  mafers	
  as	
  
much	
  to	
  its	
  ulMmate	
  success	
  as	
  the	
  iniMal	
  quality.	
  
39	
  
40	
  

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GDC 2014 Core Games, Real Numbers: Going Cross-Platform

  • 1. Hi  there,  thank  you  for  coming.  My  name  is  Emily  Greer,  and  I’m  the  co-­‐founder  &   CEO  of  Kongregate,  the  browser  games  plaDorm  and  now  a  mobile  games  publisher   as  well   1  
  • 2. That’s  what  I’m  going  to  talk  about  today,  this  is  going  to  be  something  of  a  post-­‐ mortem  on  our  first  12  months  as  a  mobile  pubisher  with  the  good,  the  bad,  and  as   much  data  as  I  can  share.       2  
  • 3. My  brother,  who  is  my  co-­‐founder,  had  previously  co-­‐founded  a  small  game  studio   and  had  a  bad  experience  with  a  major  publisher  that  failed  to  market  their  game,   then  refused  to  release  the  rights  to  do  the  sequel,  ulMmately  leading  to  the  studio   dissolving.  We  wanted  to  open  up  more  opMons  for  developers  so  they  DIDN’T  need   a  publisher  to  make  money  on  their  game.     There  were  a  ton  of  generic  browser  game  sites  out  there,  with  no  persistence   between  games  and  no  connecMon  beyond  leaderboards  between  players.       7  years  later  we’ve  got  more  than  80,000  games  on  our  plaDorm.  Most  of  our  web   revenue  comes  from  the  400  free-­‐to-­‐play  games,  primarily  MMOs  and  CCGs,  and  the   business  conMnues  to  grow  strongly  despite  dire  predicMons  of  the  death  of  web.  Our   web  traffic  grew  about  30%  in  2013,  and  our  revenue  grew  55%.  GeYng  into  mobile   is  an  expansion  of  our  current  business,  not  a  replacement.   3  
  • 4. It’s  not  like  we  just  started  thinking  about  mobile  last  year.  We’ve  been  thinking   about  it  since  the  launch  of  the  iPhone.  But  the  app  store  was  such  a  closed   ecosystem  that  we  didn’t  see  what  sort  of  role  an  social  plaDorm/distributor  could   really  play  without  being  shut  down  by  Apple.  When  Android  came  out  we  thought   there  was  more  of  an  opportunity  since  it  was  a  more  open  system.  So  we  built  a   light  version  of  the  web  plaDorm  for  Android  called  Arcade.  But  it  turned  out  that   Android  isn’t  so  open  to  anything  it  perceives  as  an  alternate  app  store,  and  Arcade   got  yanked  the  first  day  we  launched.  A_er  some  discussion  we  reworked  some   features  and  were  allowed  back  up,  but  we  were  quite  limited  because  we  couldn’t  a)   sell  anything  or  b)  give  the  appearance  of  downloading  games.  UlMmately  those   limitaMons  fundamentally  blocked  any  real  revenue  opportuniMes  for  the  Kongregate   Arcade,  and  we  stopped  development  in  late  2011  when  Adobe  announce  they  were   killing  mobile  Flash.       But  you  learn  as  much  or  more  from  your  failures  as  your  successes  and  we  got  a  lot   out  of  the  experience  of  building  Arcade,  including  a  fair  amount  of  tech.  Some  other   things  we  learned  is  that  despite  the  promises  of  HTML  5  and  Flash  mobile  the   performance  of  browser  games  on  mobile  was  consistently  bad.  On  the  good  side  we   learned  that  we  were  able  to  drive  a  lot  of  traffic  from  Kongregate  &  Gamestop,  and   are  now  up  to  2  million  installs  despite  mediocre  game  experiences  and  zero  UA.   4  
  • 5. A_er  we  stopped  development  on  Arcade  we  stepped  back  and  reconsidered  our   strategy.  In  mobile  Apple  &  Google  are  the  game  plaDorms,  but  the  problem  we’ve   always  striven  to  solve  with  our  plaDorm  –  developer  friendly  distribuMon  –  sMll   exists.       Demand  for  games  is  fundamentally  inelasMc,  and  the  race  to  the  bofom  on  pricing   in  the  early  days  of  the  app  store  has  put  developers  in  a  hole  it’s  hard  to  climb  out   of.  Prices  for  paid  games  would  probably  have  to  be  in  the  $9.99-­‐$19.99  range  you   see  in  the  PC  market  for  it  to  be  more  viable     We  know  because  we  got  most  of  it  wrong  when  we  launched  our  kreds  plaDorm   back  in  2008.  But  over  5  years  and  500+  games  doing  F2P  on  our  plaDorm  we’ve   learned  a  lot.  I  expect  a  lot  of  you  have  seen  previous  talks  we’ve  done.     So  who  helps  developers  with  distribuMon  &  moneMzaMon?  A  publisher,  of  course.     5  
  • 6. We  announced  a  $10M  publishing  fund  last  February     Since  that’s  what  we  do  well  with  on  the  web   Not  every  game  is  going  to  succeed  but  we  want  every  developer  to  feel  we’ve   treated  them  well  work  with  us  again   To  put  our  skin  in  the  game  along  with  the  dev.  A  publisher  should  share  the  risk  for  it   to  be  a  true  partnership   Cross-­‐promoMon  from  Kongregate  web,  our  parent  company  Gamestop,  and   porDolio  games     6  
  • 7. 6  of  the  live  games  are  new  Mtles,  but  2  (Lifle  Alchemist  &  Dragon  Storm  Gold)  were   live  games  we’ve  taken  over  in  the  last  couple  of  months.  It’s  about  half  core  Mtles,   including  3  CCGs  (Tyrant,  Bloodrealm,  and  Lifle  Alchemist)  and  half  casual  Mtles  like   Sheep  Happens,  Run,  and  Endless  Boss  Fight.     7  
  • 8. Here’s  a  list  of  the  Mtles  we  have  out  and  what  plaDorms  they’re  available  on  –  our   goal  is  to  have  every  game  we  publish  available  on  Kong  web,  iOS,  and  Android  to   maximize  success,  and  several  of  our  iniMal  games  are  properMes  already  successful   on  Kong  web.     Tyrant  and  Sheep  Happens  have  been  out  for  at  least  six  months  on  all  plaDorms,  but   most  of  the  rest  of  the  live  games  are  only  on  one  plaDorm  or  have  launched  very   recently,  usually  both.  Because  of  that  my  talk  is  going  to  concentrate  most  heavily   on  Tyrant,  which  has  been  out  the  longest  and  has  the  best  quality  data.   8  
  • 9. Since  I’m  going  to  spend  so  much  of  the  talk  talking  about  Tyrant  I  thought  I’d  give  it   a  larger  introducMon.  Tyrant  is  a  CCG  with  a  grify  sci-­‐fi  theme  built  originally  as  a   Facebook  game  by  Synapse  Games,  a  small  studio  in  Chicago.  They  brought  it  to   Kongregate  three  years  ago  and  it’s  been  one  of  our  most  popular  games  ever  since   with  excepMonal  retenMon  and  good  if  not  great  moneMzaMon.       When  Synapse  started  working  with  us  to  publish  the  mobile  version  moneMzaMon   was  one  of  the  things  we  focused  on  since  we  felt  that  there  was  a  big  opportunity  to   improve  the  depth  of  spend  possible,  mostly  by  adding  in  some  deeper  card   progression  and  fusion  systems,  but  also  by  increasing  the  card  prices.  Those  changes   were  quite  effecMve,  and  though  retenMon  decreased  somewhat  relaMve  to  the   original  version  the  overall  moneMzaMon  improved  significantly.         9  
  • 10. It  hit  the  top  60  in  the  gross  ranks  and  has  conMnued  to  grow.   10  
  • 11. I  menMoned  paid  UA  in  relaMon  to  scaling  so  let’s  start  with  what  everyone  is   worrying  about.  Here  are  the  CPIs  we  by  paid  by  ad  network  for  Tyrant  in  Decemer:   they  ranged  from  $2-­‐$8,  with  highly  targeted  campaigns  and  video  on  the  high  end.   These  are  prefy  inMmidaMng  #s,  but  with  a  high  LTV  game  like  Tyrant  you  can  sMll  do   it  profitably,  though  not  every  campaign  listed  here  is.  However  with  an  extended   revenue  curve  like  Tyrant  has  (only  ~17%  of  the  6  month  ARPU  comes  in  the  first   month)  it  takes  both  paMence  and  deep  pockets  to  wait  for  the  UA  to  pay  off.     11  
  • 12. But  that’s  not  the  whole  story:  CPIs  wary  wildy  by  game.  We’ve  used  just  one   network  to  get  an  apples-­‐to-­‐apples  comparison  there  so  here  our  average  CPIs  since   September  for  most  of  our  games.  Games  in  hard-­‐core,  compeMMve  genres  like  CCGs   and  MMOs  have  much  higher  CPIs  than  more  casual  games,  but  if  the  theme  is   appealing  and/or  the  graphics  are  very  strong  the  price  comes  down  a  lot.   12  
  • 13. Now  take  the  daily  #s  here  with  a  grain  of  salt  because  the  sample  size  on  a  lot  of   these  days  is  small  and  there  were  a  lot  of  moving  parts,  but  here  are  the  CPIs  on   Facebook  for  Lionheart  over  the  last  90  days,  all  but  the  last  few  of  which  were  in  test   markets.  As  you  can  see  CPIs  are  both  higher  in  test  markets  than  they  are  globally   and  that  in  each  market  they  start  lower  and  rise  over  Mme.  This  is  a  natural  result  of   saturaMng  a  market  and  a  source,  but  was  exaggerated  in  this  case  because  we   weren’t  tesMng  and  refreshing  creaMves  at  the  rate  that  we  would  for  a  game  in  wide   release.  To  fight  the  CPI  creep  you  need  to  be  tesMng  and  refreshing  creaMves  at  least   every  6  weeks.     13  
  • 14. A  lot  of  the  reason  we  can  make  high  CPIs  is  that  we  credit  paid  campaigns  with  some   value  from  organic  users.  In  our  office  there  are  two  camps  on  what  mostly  drives   organics:  one  is  that  paid  installs  are  helping  to  drive  chart  posiMon,  and  chart   posiMon  then  drives  organic  installs,  the  other  that  players  are  telling  their  friends   about  the  game.  I  think  organics  are  a  complicated  phenomenon  with  elements  of   both,  but  long-­‐term  I  think  word  of  mouth  is  more  important,  especially  if  you’re  not   in  the  upper  parts  of  the  charts  that  get  extensive  exposure.     This  chart  shows  our  organic  and  paid  installs  for  Tyrant  on  IOS  since  launch,  along   with  our  retained  DAU,  ie  our  DAU  less  new  installs  to  just  show  returning  users.   Early  on  there’s  a  prefy  clear  relaMon  between  UA  and  organics,  parMcularly   noMceable  where  we  spiked  UA  around  8/28  and  again  in  October.  But  long  term  the   relaMonship  has  gofen  weaker  and  weaker,  to  the  point  now  where  organics  are   higher  than  installs  from  paid  UA,  and  follow  the  pafern  of  our  retained  DAU  much   more  closely.  I  think  that  while  people  are  most  likely  to  share  a  game  when  they   start  playing  it  but  there’s  sMll  some  chance  of  sharing  it  at  any  point  while  they   conMnue  playing  it,  so  the  value  of  paid  UA  to  installs  is  long-­‐term  and  cumulaMve   and  likely  cross-­‐plaDorm,  since  the  friend  of  the  iPhone  user  might  have  an  Android,   and  vice  versa.     Also  changes  in  your  game  can  help  drive  word  of  mouth.    Anyone  who’s  been     14  
  • 15. It  was  prefy  clear  from  the  last  chart  that  while  UA  is  important,  the  app  store   feature  we  got  for  Tyrant  along  with  the  Gamestop  promoMon  were  just  as  important   in  building  our  DAU.  The  effect  is  much  more  dramaMc  on  Android  since  we  were  able   to  get  more  and  larger  features  there.       We’ve  been  able  to  secure  features  on  for  almost  all  of  the  games  we  have  live   globally  on  each  plaDorm  so  are  starMng  to  get  a  feel  for  how  many  installs  you  get   from  parMcular  types  of  features.  Apple  generally  features  games  primarily  at  launch,   prefers  indie-­‐feeling  and  more  casual  games,  and  keeps  their  categories/placements   fairly  consistent.  Google  is  more  open  to  non-­‐launch  features  and  refeatures  of   games  with  good  metrics,  which  is  nice,  but  the  feature  value  is  much  more  variable   because  their  arrangement  changes  more.     15  
  • 16. And  will  have  similar  qualiMes  as  long  as  the  control  scheme  &  playability  are  similar.   Run  is  a  fast-­‐paced  endless  runner  with  instant  respawn  that’s  been  a  viral  traffic   juggernaut  on  Kongregate  web.  When  it  launched  on  Android  on  December  we   seeded  it  with  some  promoMon  on  Kongregate  and  it  went  viral,  hiYng  1.5M   downloads  without  any  further  markeMng  or  features.  There’s  no  easy  way  to  tell   how  much  was  exisMng  fans  picking  up  the  Mtle  or  new  viral  spread,  though  I  suspect   a  bit  of  both.  But  I  think  that  building  a  fan  base  on  web  and  then  using  that  to  help   launch  a  game  on  mobile  is  a  very  underrated  strategy.  Bloons  Tower  Defense  5  has   been  in  the  top  100  grossing  charts  for  more  than  a  year  with  no  markeMng  fueled  by   the  huge  audience  they  built  for  that  series  on  the  web  over  the  last  5  years.       16  
  • 17. Bloodrealm  is  a  CCG  from  Making  Fun,  with  the  same  gameplay  and  features   between  the  web  version  and  mobile  though  with  a  lifle  bit  of  lag.  A_er  a  substanMal   beta  period  on  Kong  (which  allowed  them  to  make  substanMal  improvements  in   metrics)  the  game  was  pushed  broadly  on  both  Kongregate  &  iOS  in  November.   While  day  to  day  there’s  variaMon  the  average  ARPDAU  between  the  two  plaDorms  is   idenMcal  at  $0.19.         Now  there  are  two  caveats  to  this  data:  1)  developers  have  generally  reported   Kongregate  LTVs  as  2-­‐3x  that  of  other  plaDorms  such  as  Facebook,  so  comparison   between  the  FB  version  and  a  mobile  version  would  probably  reflect  a  similar   difference.  2)  ARPDAU  on  its  own  can  be  a  decepMve  stat  because  two  games  with   similar  ARPDAUs  but  different  retenMon  rates  will  have  very  different  LTVs.  In  this   case  however  I  can  confirm  that  the  LTV  by  cohort  is  also  virtually  idenMcal  between   the  two  plaDorms,  and  thus  retenMon  as  well.  And  finally  if  you’re  wondering  why  I’m   using  a  stat  I  don’t  care  for  like  ARPDAU  it’s  because  I  can  safely  talk  about  it  and   downloads  without  revealing  our  total  revenue,  which  as  part  of  a  public  company  I   have  to  be  careful  about,  while  sMll  managing  to  share  relevant  informaMon.   17  
  • 18. In  fact  more  than  half  of  our  revenue  is  coming  from  Android  right  now  because  our   top  performing  game,  Tyrant,  has  done  so  well  there.   18  
  • 19. Here’s  Tyrant’s  breakdown  of  revenue  by  device.  Overall  our  revenue  is  closer  to   50/50  because  other  games  have  done  befer  on  iOS.  One  factor  besides  the  heavy   Google  features  for  Tyrant  may  be  that  it’s  more  popular  on  phones  than  tablets  for   some  reason,  perhaps  related  to  genre.  Lionheart  TacMcs,  which  we  launched  two   weeks  ago  a_er  an  3  months  in  test  markets,  gets  50-­‐55%  of  it’s  revenue  from  iPad,   and  Tyrant  has  always  ranked  lower  on  the  iPad  grossing  charts  than  the  iPhone.   19  
  • 20. So  let’s  dig  into  the  comparaMve  #s  by  plaDorm.  Here’s  a  chart  of  Tyrant’s  ARPDAU   since  global  launch  on  each  plaDorm.  On  average  Android  ARPDAU  runs  10-­‐15%   lower  than  iOS  except  in  the  mid-­‐November  to  early  January  periods  when  there  was   a  big  influx  of  new  traffic  on  Android  from  Google  features.       But  the  overall  #s  are  actually  masking  a  lot,  as  the  traffic  mix  is  quite  different   between  plaDorms.  The  majority  of  our  traffic  on  iOS  has  come  through  paid  user   acquisiMon  and  Gamestop  promoMon  in  North  America  &  Western  Europe  while  on   Android  our  traffic  is  more  geographically  mixed  since  the  majority  came  through   features.       20  
  • 21. Here’s  a  breakdown  of  our  installs  and  revenue  by  country.  Installs  are  fairly  diverse   but  revenue  is  completely  dominated  by  English-­‐speaking  countries,  Western  Europe,   and  Scandinavia  though  Russia  is  also  fairly  strong.   21  
  • 22. Here  is  the  ARPDAU  by  plaDorm  for  just  US  traffic  –  outside  the  heavy  feature  traffic   periods  Android  ARPDAU  is  very  close  and  o_en  befer  than  iOS.   22  
  • 23. In  Germany  Android  ARPDAU  is  usually  befer  than  iOS,  parMcularly  in  the  last  few   months.   23  
  • 24. Whereas  the  moneMzaMon  of  our  Russian  Android  traffic  is  quite  low  relaMve  to  both   Russian  iOS  ARPDAU  and  US  or  German  Android  traffic.   24  
  • 25. What’s  going  on  becomes  clearer  when  you  dig  into  the  devices.  Most  of  the  German   devices  are  high-­‐end  Samsung  Galaxy  phones,  whereas  Russian  devices  are  mostly   fragmented,  lower-­‐end  devices.   25  
  • 26. Devices  are  a  prefy  good  proxy  for  demographics:  people  with  new,  high-­‐end  devices   tend  to  be  more  wealthy  and  willing  to  spend  than  those  with  older  or  cheaper   devices  –  the  iPhone  5s  has2x  the  ARPDAU  of  the  4s.  Children  are  more  likely  to  be   using  iPods.  But  aside  from  the  demographics  of  the  users:  a  lot  of  the  older  devices   may  just  not  play  the  game  very  well.   26  
  • 27. Everyone  talks  about  Android  fragmentaMon,  and  it  is  very  real.  But  it’s  been  7  years   since  the  iPhone  launched  and  4  since  the  iPad  and  as  you  can  tell  from  this  chart   there  are  a  lot  of  different  iOS  devices  out  there,  too,  with  different  screen  sizes,   resoluMons,  and  levels  of  processing  power,  and  since  nearly  every  model  sold  well   they’re  sMll  a  lot  of  the  older  devices  in  use.  It’s  easy  to  hit  performance  problem,   crashes  and  instability  from  too  many  high-­‐res  assets  or  3D  effects  on  lower-­‐end   devices.  This  chart  is  the  tutorial  funnel  for  Lionheart  TacMcs  early  in  its  test  market   period.  It’s  a  beauMful  3D  game  that  looks  fabulous  on  reMna  devices  but  as  you  can   see  from  the  chart  had  very  sharp  drop-­‐offs  on  older  iPhones  and  iPod  touches.     The  developer  (Emerald  City  Games)  was  able  to  opMmize  for  the  lower-­‐end  devices   by  using  different  menus  and  textures  there,  and  removing  lightmaps  and  other   visual  effects  during  bafles  but  managing  all  these  different  version  has  been  more   challenging  and  Mme-­‐consuming  than  they  expected.     27  
  • 28. While  the  device  fragmentaMon  on  Android  is  worse  than  iOS  the  tools  they  give  you   to  manage  it  are  much,  much  befer.  Detailed  crash  &  freeze  reports  are  extremely   helpful  in  diagnosing  and  fixing  issues  and  if  there  are  devices  that  you  just  can’t   support  you  can  specifically  blacklist  them.  You  can  also  block  downloads  based  on   other  criteria,  such  as  screen  size,  which  is  very  helpful  in  blocking  the  proliferaMon  of   low-­‐end  devices  in  Southeast  Asia.  Being  able  to  push  beta  builds  through  the   developer  console  and  then  test  them  as  if  they  were  live  is  invaluable,  second  only   being  able  to  push  a  build  live  to  users  whenever  you  want  and  need  to.     28  
  • 29. Unfortunately  the  google  transacMon  APIs  are  not  as  user  friendly.  A  good  example  is   that  item  prices  are  returned  with  a  currency  symbol  rather  than  a  currency  code,  so   it’s  impossible  to  disMnguish  something  charged  in  US  dollars,  Canadian  dollars,  or   Mexican  pesos,  which  all  use  the  same  sign.  We  work  around  this  by  puYng  the  price   in  the  item  name  and  parsing  it  from  there  but  it’s  a  bit  of  a  pain  to  manage.     What’s  more  than  a  pain  is  that  Google  is  very  slow  to  verify  purchases  and   overzealous  in  their  idenMficaMon  of  fraud,  especially  on  higher-­‐priced  items.  This   causes  customer  frustraMon  and  forces  you  to  ping  their  servers  to  check  all  the  users   transacMons  every  Mme  they  enter  the  game  to  make  sure  they’re  granted  what   they’ve  bought.   29  
  • 30. The  receipt  verificaMon  I  menMoned  on  the  last  slide  is  really  important  and  this   graph  shows  why.    It’s  the  first  two  weeks  of  iOS  revenue  reported  by  Sheep   Happens,  a  wacky  endless  runner  we  launched  last  fall,  which  at  the  Mme  was  not   checking  Apple’s  servers  that  a  purchase  was  valid  before  granMng  the  currency  and   many  users  with  jailbroken  phones  took  advantage  of  the  omission.  It  turns  out  when   IAP  is  free  demand  is  very  high!  While  the  game  did  decently  actual  revenue  was  of   course  a  fracMon  of  the  numbers  shown  here.  I  promised  you  real  numbers:  these  are   simultanously  real  and  very  inaccurate.     Nearly  all  of  our  developers  had  some  degree  of  trouble  implemenMng  receipt   verificaMon,  either  in  the  actual  receipt  verificaMon  like  Sheep  Happens  or   incorporaMng  it  correctly  in  analyMcs  calls  and  it  wasted  a  bunch  of  Mme  for   everybody.  We’ve  baked  it  into  our  SDK  now  so  developers  don’t  have  to  deal  with  it   but  it  sMll  causes  legacy  problems  for  some  games,  like  Sheep  Happens,  because   players  aren’t  forced  to  update  so  old  client  versions  conMnue  to  send  bad  data.         30  
  • 31. I  did  a  talk  at  GDC  Next  last  fall  about  data  problems  and  piDalls  and  used  this  image   to  talk  about  how  under  the  surface  data  is  o_en  a  steaming  pile  of  corrupted,   inaccurate  shit.  That’s  true  for  web  data  but  it’s  twice  as  true  for  mobile  for  a  several   major  reasons  that  are  interrelated:  connecMon  issues,  client  unreliablity  and  client   fragmentaMon.       On  the  web  there  are  just  a  few  major  clients,  aka  browsers,  that  provide  data  in  a   standardized  way,  events  nearly  always  occur  online  so  you  can  rely  on  your  own   server  for  Mmestamps,  and  your  biggest  headaches  come  from  idenMfying  people   uniquely.       On  mobile  you  need  to  rely  on  the  client  much  more,  both  because  important  events   occur  offline  and  because  the  client  itself  is  crucial  informaMon.  But  even  something   as  basic  as  the  Mmestamp  can  be  reported  very  differently  from  plaDorm  to  device  to   region.  We  recently  had  problems  with  the  data  from  Lionheart  TacMcs  because  a   bunch  of  clients  from  Southeast  Asia  were  reporMng  the  date  in  the  Buddhist  era   calendar,  where  it’s  2557  instead  of  2014  and  if  you  don’t  have  the  right  Mme  for   events  you’re  screwed.   31  
  • 32. We’ve  built  our  own  SDK  for  developers  to  use  on  games  we’re  publishing  to  take   advantage  of  Kongregate  logins  and  badges  and  other  features,  and  have  now  rolled   analyMcs  into  it,  but  Swrve,  Leanplum,  Kontagent  and  many  other  commercial   services  will  do  a  much  befer  job  than  you’ll  do  on  your  own.         32  
  • 33. It’s  tempMng  to  instrument  your  game  from  the  start  with  everything  you  think  you   might  want  to  know  but  you’re  not  likely  to  get  it  all  right,  it  will  be  overwhelming  to   QA,  and  expensive  to  store,  which  is  especially  frustraMng  if  you  know  it’s  garbage.   We’ve  moved  to  a  staged  approach  with  analyMcs  implementaMons  where  we  have   developers  implement  the  most  crucial  stuff:  player  idenMficaMon,  sessions,  and   transacMons  (crawl).  Once  that  is  QAed  move  on  to  basic  game-­‐specific  informaMon   like  tutorial  compleMon,  level  progress,  win  rates,  and  pvp  parMcipaMon  which  are  the   most  acMonable.  Finally  once  that’s  solid  it’s  Mme  to  run  with  the  really  detailed   informaMon  if  the  game  is  deep  enough  to  warrant  it.  Endless  runners,  ironically,   probably  only  need  crawl/walk  whereas  that  last  stage  of  data  is  very  important  in   most  mulMplayer  games.     33  
  • 34. SomeMmes  the  hardest  thing  to  know  is  that  there  IS  a  problem,  but  if  you’re  cross-­‐ checking  across  mulMple  sources  they  are  easier  to  find.  We’re  constantly  cross-­‐ checking  our  internal  analyMcs  against  AppAnnie  and  Ad-­‐X,  which  we  use  for   markeMng  tracking,  and  will  soon  add  Swrve  which  will  add  another  data  point.       34  
  • 35. This  is  something  that  came  up  for  us  in  part  because  of  the  gap  between  a   publisher’s  commitment  to  analyMcs  and  the  developer  –  some  of  our  developers  are   as  into  analyMcs  as  we  are,  but  some  have  been  implemenMng  the  schema  more  for   us  than  for  them.  The  result  is  skimpy  tesMng  on  their  side  and  in  our  hurry  we   haven’t  always  QAed  enough  either.  On  several  games  we  launched  into  test  market   with  fundamentally  bad  data  and  it  was  a  waste  of  both  Mme  and  markeMng  $s.   Everything  doesn’t  have  to  be  perfect  yet  but  you  need  at  least  the  basics  for   retenMon,  revenue,  and  player  progress  tracking.       35  
  • 36. A  game  with  bad  data  is  a  black  box.  You  might  have  a  great  game,  and  it  doesn’t   mafer.  More  likely  you  have  a  game  that  could  be  befer  but  without  data  it’s  hard   to  know  even  what  direcMon  to  go.  Now  I’m  not  in  any  way  in  the  school  that  thinks   you  should  be  A/B  tesMng  every  bufon  color  –  for  games  to  have  soul  and  to   innovate  you  need  to  look  beyond  data.  But  data  is  crucial  in  diagnosing  what  is  and   isn’t  working,  generaMng  theories  of  why,  and  eventually  confirming  if  your  changes   had  the  effect  you  expected.       Sheep  Happens  was  a  black  box  –as  you  saw  earlier  the  data  from  the  game  was   quite  messy,  and  we  launched  with  them  only  parMally  fixed  and  a  hazy  view  of  the   metrics  and  issues  with  the  game.  We’ve  done  our  best  guessing  at  what  needed   improvement  but  with  so  much  corrupt  data  in  the  system  it’s  difficult  to  tell  if  it  has   had  much  effect.  Unfortunately  the  answer  is  probably  not.       36  
  • 37. And  you  can  really  improve  your  game  over  Mme.  Here’s  Tyrant’s  ARPDAU  chart  again   which  you  can  see  increased  dramaMcally  over  Mme  even  with  conMnuing  influxes  of   new  traffic.  Since  they  launched  last  August  they’ve  pushed  nearly  20  builds,  nearly   all  with  various  fixes  for  UI  issues,  performance  across  devices,  and  bug  along  with   constant  tweaking  of  the  matchmaking  algorithm,  all  working  to  improve  the  base   player  experience.       Along  with  that  every  month  or  so  Synapse  has  done  a  release  of  a  major  new  system   to  increase  the  depth  of  the  game,  parMcularly  the  late  game.  Those  features  don’t   necessarily  drive  moneMzaMon  themselves,  but  they  increase  player  engagement  and   retenMon  without  which  there  can  be  no  moneMzaMon.     What  drives  the  revenue  spikes  you  see  is  the  regular  release  of  new  content,   parMcularly  of  limited  Mme  events  with  rewards,  which  are  Med  to  the  release  of  new   gacha  boxes  and  occasional  special  offers.   37  
  • 38. Last  summer  when  we  first  started  launching  games  we  were  expecMng  to  spend  4,   maybe  6  weeks  in  test  markets  and  we  pushed  our  first  two  games,  Tyrant  and  Sheep   Happens  in  that  Mme  frame.  We  had  some  internal  deadlines  that  we  needed  to  hit  –   the  games  needed  to  be  out  on  both  iOS  &  Android  by  the  beginning  of  September  to   get  significant  promoMon  from  Gamestop  because  once  GTA  V  and  the  new  consoles   started  launching  there  wouldn’t  be  an  opportunity  again  unMl  a_er  Christmas.       For  Tyrant  this  was  the  right  call  –  while  the  game  was  missing  some  features  that  we   knew  were  going  to  be  important  long-­‐term,  like  guilds,  and  that  the  UI  and   matchmaking  needed  more  tweaking  the  game  was  in  fundamentally  good  shape   with  solid  data  and  metrics.  We  didn’t  get  the  fullest  possible  value  from  our  early   Apple  feature  but  that  was  more  than  made  up  for  by  the  value  we  got  from   Gamestop  promoMon.       But  Sheep  Happens  was  a  black  box  that  wasn’t  ready.  The  game  did  okay  anyway,   and  has  been  profitable  for  both  us  and  the  developer,  but  the  value  of  the  heavy   Apple  features  we  secured  for  it  at  launch  were  likely  much,  much  less  than  they   could  have  been.       Holding  a  game  longer  in  test  markets  definitely  has  some  costs,  and  the  pros  and   cons  need  to  be  weighed  carefully.  If  you’re  not  going  to  get  a  launch  feature  or     38  
  • 39. Staying  longer  in  test  markets  fits  in  with  something  I  like  to  say,  which  is  that  things   are  a  marathon,  not  a  sprint.  It’s  definitely  true  that  free-­‐to-­‐play  games  are  a   marathon.  Good  games  can  grow  and  maintain  revenue  for  years,  as  long  as  the   systems  keep  the  players  engaged  and  the  developer  can  keep  adding  content  and   events.  Tyrant  started  solid,  but  a  lifle  slow,  and  at  launch  both  Synapse  and  us  were   a  lifle  disappointed  since  we  thought  the  game  was  capable  of  more.  Over  8  months   the  game  has  come  to  meet  and  exceed  our  expectaMons,  hiYng  top  50  grossing  in   the  US  iPhone  charts  just  last  week.  A  crucial  part  of  that  long-­‐term  growth  story  is   the  relentless  pace  at  which  Synapse  worked  pushing  content  and  changes,  making   mistakes,  learning  from  them,  fixing  them,  pushing  for  the  kind  of  LTVs  that  make   paid  UA  profitable,  even  for  a  niche  game  with  a  grify  theme.  You  can’t  sprint   forever,  and  since  January  Synapse  has  sefled  into  a  steadier,  more  sustainable   rhythm  but  the  type  of  drive  and  speed  they’ve  shown  is  something  we  now  look  for   in  every  team  we  sign,  because  the  rate  at  which  you  improve  a  game  mafers  as   much  to  its  ulMmate  success  as  the  iniMal  quality.   39  
  • 40. 40