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Being an Entrepreneur
  in the 21st Century

      ByzHub Meetup

    New Westminster, BC
      October 20, 2011

        Basil Peters
We are lucky to
live in Vancouver
We are Fortunate To Live in BC
BC Economy - Forestry
BC Economy - Mining
BC Economy - Fishing
Things have changed
The Economy
• Has changed
• The whole world has changed
Entire Countries are Bankrupt




Other countries will certainly follow
Market Lost Trillions in Days




Lately it‟s almost a regular occurrence
Lehman Brothers Is Gone
GM Bankrupt
Why is this
happening?
Global Trade
The World is Now a Small Place
The effect on
big companies
Canada‟s Most Valuable Corp
• Nortel was founded in 1882
• In 2000, Nortel‟s value was a third of the
  entire TSX index – Canada‟s most valuable
• Market cap was $398 Billion
• Employed 94,500 people
• Bankrupt in 2009
• Assets sold to companies around the world
Other Big Tech Companies
• Was Nortel just a single example?
• Or a made in Canada failure?
• What about the other big, great tech
  companies?
Intel – 15 years


         Bubble
Microsoft – 15 years


         Bubble
Cisco – 15 years


        Bubble
None Are Creating Wealth
• For their investors,
• And more importantly for their employees
• For decades, these greats were all built on the
  increasing value of their stock options
• That‟s what used to bring, and retained, the
  best and the brightest
• To these big companies
Big Companies are Risky
• When I graduated from university,
• Most of the new graduates wanted to get jobs
  in the big companies
• To learn „how it was done‟
• To work somewhere that was safe and stable
• Today, working in a big company seems to be
  a pretty risky proposition
• And certainly not a very lucrative one
Startups create all
the economic growth
Startups Create All the Growth
• In the old economy big was an advantage
• Today being big seems to be the opposite
• All of the economic growth is happening in
  small companies
• In fact, startups have created ALL of the
  new jobs for the past three decades
Startups Create ALL The Jobs
Lots Doesn‟t Work Anymore
• Many big parts of the financial ecosystem
• That worked for a hundred years
• Don‟t work at all anymore
• The economy has changed
• The world has changed
• But it‟s not all bad news – especially for
  entrepreneurs and Angel investors
The Good News
for Entrepreneurs
Let‟s Focus on Our Economy
• Most of you are entrepreneurs
• Many are involved in the „new economy‟
• The knowledge based economy
• What‟s changed in our part of the global
  economy?
• More importantly – how do we capitalize on it?
• What are the changes that we can make
  money with?
Changes That Make Us Money
• I think the five most important changes in the
  last decade that we can capitalize on are:

  1.   Innovation in startups
  2.   Internet acceleration
  3.   Capital efficiency
  4.   Availability of capital
  5.   Early exits
Innovation
Innovation is Our Opportunity
• The world has become a very small place
• Everything is interconnected
• We can‟t manufacture much in North America
• We almost can‟t write code here anymore
• The first big change is in our economy is that
• „Innovation‟ seems to be the last big
  opportunity to make money in North America
Innovation Happens in Startups
• The best and the brightest now work in startups
• Startups are where the opportunities are
• Where the excitement is
• Where the smart people create the innovations
• That‟s why all the economic and employment
  growth is created by startups
• And why nerds can earn more that football
  players, rock musicians and movie stars
Internet Acceleration
Internet Acceleration
• The internet has changed everything
• The biggest change in our lifetimes
• Larger impact than the printing press,
  automobile, air travel or atomic power
• The internet hasn‟t just connected everything
• It has also accelerated everything
• That‟s the second big change
The Internet is Changing Us
• I don‟t know if it is technology driven evolution
  or just training, but
• Young people‟s brains work differently now
• Watch your kids multi-task
• Ask a university professor how it looks to them
• Many students are too ADD to read a full book
• This is having a real impact on company
  formation, growth and exits
Our Species is Evolving
• People under 30 years old have much shorter
  attention spans
• It‟s not just in their multi-tasking conversations
  or reading material
• This shorter attention span also means that
  many of the team will start to think about
  moving to new jobs after 2 or 3 years
The “Equity Effect”
• Psychological vesting is about 2/3 of the time
• That means that the smart portfolio decision
  for the employees is to move to the next
  company at: Time = 0.67 Vesting Period
• The best and brightest go first
• These combine to mean that many modern
  companies at two or three years from startup
• Are „middle aged‟ and starting to decline
• http://www.angelblog.net/Corporate_Structure.html
Being Lean
New Startup Economics
• Third, it‟ s amazing how little it costs to build a
  tech company today
• Back when I was an entrepreneur, hardware
  and software companies cost $10s millions
• That gave rise to the huge VC funds
• Also one of the reasons innovation used to
  happen primarily in big companies
• Today, entrepreneurs can build companies for
  $100,000s and, in some cases, $10,000s
Why It Costs So Little Today
• The Internet
• Fundamentally changing how we work
• And build companies
• Instant access to the entire global market
• Another example - open source software
• More importantly - virtual companies
Many Startups Raise No Capital
• As an investor for almost 20 years now,
• I‟m amazed by how many of the most
  successful companies I see
• Or have helped to sell
• Have raised no capital at all
• Or just a little from friends and family
• These bootstrapped companies are usually
  stronger and produce higher returns
There‟s No
Shortage of Capital
Let me repeat that
• Yes, I just said there is no shortage of capital
• Worried that I have been living under a rock?
• Or haven‟t been reading the newspapers?
• Yes, the papers say there is a shortage
• Its not true
• My friends who are investors and fund
  managers, here and in the US, all complain
  they can‟t find enough companies to invest in
Financing in Previous Times
• When I was a young entrepreneur,
• Didn‟t matter if it was a hardware company or
  a software company
• Most companies cost $10s millions to build
• That created the enormous venture capital
  industry, parts of which are still around today
• And many common misperceptions
• Like that there is a shortage of capital
What are your financing options?
• Use your own resources – even if you don‟t
  have any money
• Bootstrapping should always be your first
  choice
• (yes, I am an investor, but that‟s the truth)
• Some business models just can‟t be
  bootstrapped
If you really do need investors
• What are your options to raise private capital
  for your company?
• How many of you are planning to go to a
  venture capital fund to raise your startup
  capital?
• How many are planning on angel investors?
Who Actually Finances Startups?
 • Just a couple of years ago when asked how
   many were planning to raise capital from VCs
 • A surprising number of entrepreneurs still
   thought VCs finance startups
 • The actual data is that Angel Investors finance
   27x more startups than VCs
 • www.AngelBlog.net/Angels_Finance_27_Tim
   es_More_Start-ups_Than_VCs.html
The Really Big Money
• In America, each year Venture Capital Funds
  invest about $20 billion
• Angel investors also invest about $20 billion
  each year
• Even more surprising, Friends and Family
  investors invest about five times more than
  either VCs or Angels
• From “Fools Gold” by Scott Shane 2009
The Problem Is
• Most of the people who invest in Friends and
  Family rounds
• Really shouldn‟t.
• Professional investors agree that the earliest
  rounds are actually the most difficult.
• Friends and Family investors almost never have
  the knowledge and skills to objectively evaluate:
  –   Valuations
  –   Structures
  –   Market opportunities
  –   Technology
Uh, Oh!
• These are our friends and family!
• And we really need their money.
• But don‟t want to have awkward looks across
  the dinner table.
• So what should we do?
The Solution:
• Fairness
• Alignment
• Governance
• All built into the structure of the company,
• through the first investment agreement.
Finding an Angel in Vancouver
• More good news is that there are lots of angel
  investors in BC
• And many more angels just a short drive south
• A third of the Bellingham Angel Group‟s
  investments are in BC
• Angels are easy to find:
• www.angelblog.net/How_to_find_an_
  angel_investor_in_Vancouver.html
Angel Co-Investment
• Just a couple of years ago, the conventional
  wisdom was that angel investment topped out
  at around $2 million per company
• Kauffman and ACA started talking about
  co-investment just a couple of years ago
• Now I regularly see groups of angels investing
  $5 million to $10 million
• Probably enough for 99+% companies
The Biggest Investor in Canada
• An angel investor friend of mine, Mike Volker
• Is famous for saying that the biggest angel
  investor in Canada is
• The SRED program
• Don‟t forget IRAP
• Your research, and much of your development,
  might only cost you 35 cents on the dollar
Many Other Sources
• We often think about banks
• But they usually finance mature companies
• Today, there are many new types of investors
  and lenders
• New funds and entirely new investment
  structures for entrepreneurial companies
• Search the web and ask your mentors
Tip: Why are they investing?
• What is the most significant reason investors
  decide to invest?
• Hint: This answer applies not just to the
  Friends and Family round but to all rounds.
• Expectation of a financial return?
• Because they like the business plan?
• The real answer –
• Because they like you.
Early Exits
Exits are the Best Part
• I believe exits are the best part of being an
  entrepreneur or investor
• It‟s when we get paid for all of our hard work
  and risk capital
• But it‟s also the least well understood part of
  being an entrepreneur or private investor
• Simply because it doesn‟t happen very often
• One of my life goals is to provide information to
  help entrepreneurs execute better exits
We Always Hear About The Big Exits

• The media always reports the really big exits
• From BC, it‟s exits like
  Club Penguin‟s $350 million sale to Disney
• Or Google‟s purchase of YouTube for $1.6 billion
• Those exits are very rare occurrences
• The „new‟ big story is the large number of smaller
  exits
Most Exits Are Under $20 Million
• Mergerstat database shows the median price
  of private company acquisitions is under $25
  million, when price is disclosed
• But the price is not disclosed in most smaller
  transactions
• I estimate the median price to be well
  under $20 million
• And probably below $15 million
Google Wants Even Earlier Exits
• I was surprised recently to learn just how early
  Google wants to do acquisitions
• Charles Rim one of the top Google M&A guys:
• “90% plus of our transactions are small
  transactions. … less than 20 people, less than
  $20 million and that is truly the sweet spot”
• “we do prefer companies that are pre-revenue”
• http://www.angelblog.net/Google_Wants_Even
  _Earlier_Exits_Than_in_Early_Exits.html
Examples of These Exits
• Google bought Adscape for $23 million (now Adsense)
• Google bought Blogger for $20 million (rumored)
• Yahoo bought Oddpost for $20 million (rumored)
• Ask Jeeves bought LiveJournal for $25 million
• Yahoo bought Flickr for $30 million (rumored)
• AOL bought Weblogs Inc for $25 million (rumored)
• Yahoo bought del.icio.us for $30 – 35 million (rumored)
• Google bought Writely for $10 million
• Google bought MeasureMap for less than $5 million
• Yahoo bought WebJay for around $1 million (rumored)
• Yahoo bought Jumpcut for $15 million (rumored)
Why This Is Happening Now
• One of my friends from a Fortune 500
  company explained it this way:
   – We (big companies) know we aren‟t good at
     new ideas or start-ups
   – We basically suck at building businesses
     from zero to $20 million in value
   – But we think of ourselves as really good at
     growing values from $20 million to $200
     million or more
Under $20 Million Is Easy
  – A company priced at $100 million is already out
    of our sweet spot to buy
  – $100 million also requires board approval
  – But at $20 million, it‟s really easy for me to get it
    approved just inside my division
• Many big companies are spending more on M&A
  than internal R&D
• Today, it‟s the best way for them to grow
Big Corps Have So Much Cash
• Many big companies have so much cash that
  it‟s a problem – shareholders complain
• Google has $20 billion
• eBay has $5 billion
• Amazon has $3 billion
• Yahoo has $3 billion
• Microsoft has $35 billion
• Apple has $75 billion  cash and investments
Who Else Is Buying?
• The most familiar buyers are Fortune 500
  companies
• But medium sized companies are also
  aggressive buyers – especially public ones
• Private Equity funds are also coming back into
  the market now that debt is available
• Also many individuals not ready to retire
Weekender Sold in 10 Days
• In 2009 when I wrote “Early Exits”
• I speculated that one day: “They‟ll probably
  define an early exit as selling the company
  before the end of the weekender”
• That almost happened in November 2009
• A team of entrepreneurs in London built a
  business in one day and sold it online in ten
  days: www.24hour-startup.com <– great video
• Not an isolated example, see www.Flippa.com
A New Really Early Exit
• Anyone heard of the company PumkinHead?
• How about About.me?
• About.me was acquired by AOL
• Just four days after its public launch
• That may be a new record
• But a better way to measure is from startup
A Local Really Early Exit
• This is a Vancouver company but they asked
  me to keep their details confidential – for now
• This company wanted to test the idea for their
  product, so they called on a US customer
• The customer asked to buy the company
• The CEO called me for help
• Three months later the money was in the bank
• Company was less than 12 months from startup
  and hadn‟t launched the product yet
Big Exits In Just 2 – 3 Years
• Flickr sold for $30 million at 1.5 years old
• Delicious sold for $30+million 2 years from startup
• Club Penguin for $350 million at 2 years old
• YouTube sold for $1.6 billion at 2 years old
• Playfish sold for $275 million at 2 years old
• Mint sold for $170 million at 3 years old
• AdMob sold for $750 million at 3.5 years old
How Early Can You Sell?
• A common misunderstanding about M&A exits
  is that you have to grow the company to be
  profitable
• Or grow it to be larger than $X millions of
  revenue
• The real threshold is to „prove the business
  model‟
• For example, prove what a customer is worth
  and what they cost to acquire
It‟s Often The Optimum Time
• As soon as you prove the model is often the
  best time to sell
• Always better to sell on an upward trend
• Sell on the promise not the reality
• Often when you can get the best price
• Very often „stuff happens‟
• Most entrepreneurs wait too long to start
The Most Heartbreaking Error
• The most heartbreaking error I see entrepreneurs
  and boards make is to exit too late
• It‟s caused by our fundamental human nature
• And happens primarily due to a lack of education
• In my opinion, more at the director level, than
  company management
• This is probably the single factor that could most
  improve the returns of angel and fund portfolios
Don‟t “Ride It Over the Top”
                                                         Optimum
                               Optimum time              exit time
                            6 to start the exit        IRR = 124%
                                                                      More typical time
Investment Return (times)




                            5                                          to start the exit

                            4                                                         More typical
                                                                                        exit time
                            3                                                         IRR = 15%

                            2
                                         Fastest
                            1            Growth
                                         Phase
                            0
                                0        1         2        3        4          5          6         7
                                                       Years from Investment
What works today
Our 21st Century Economy
• What works today:
  1. Startups innovate and create jobs
  2. Angels, Friends and Family finance them
  3. Big companies, and others, buy them early
  4. The buyers continue to grow the business
  5. Entrepreneurs and Angels do it again
A Golden Era For Entrepreneurs
• There has never been a time before when
• It was so easy for entrepreneurs to create
• Such valuable companies
• On so little capital, and
• Sell them so early
• For so much money
Resources
• www.Early-Exits.com – book on exit strategies
  for entrepreneurs
• www.AngelBlog.net – blog for entrepreneurs
  and angel investors
• www.Exits-Blog.com – blog on exits
• www.BasilPeters.com – for this PowerPoint
  and videos of previous talks

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Being an entrepreneur in the 21st century 20111020

  • 1. Being an Entrepreneur in the 21st Century ByzHub Meetup New Westminster, BC October 20, 2011 Basil Peters
  • 2. We are lucky to live in Vancouver
  • 3. We are Fortunate To Live in BC
  • 4. BC Economy - Forestry
  • 5. BC Economy - Mining
  • 6. BC Economy - Fishing
  • 8. The Economy • Has changed • The whole world has changed
  • 9. Entire Countries are Bankrupt Other countries will certainly follow
  • 10. Market Lost Trillions in Days Lately it‟s almost a regular occurrence
  • 15. The World is Now a Small Place
  • 16. The effect on big companies
  • 17. Canada‟s Most Valuable Corp • Nortel was founded in 1882 • In 2000, Nortel‟s value was a third of the entire TSX index – Canada‟s most valuable • Market cap was $398 Billion • Employed 94,500 people • Bankrupt in 2009 • Assets sold to companies around the world
  • 18. Other Big Tech Companies • Was Nortel just a single example? • Or a made in Canada failure? • What about the other big, great tech companies?
  • 19. Intel – 15 years  Bubble
  • 20. Microsoft – 15 years  Bubble
  • 21. Cisco – 15 years  Bubble
  • 22. None Are Creating Wealth • For their investors, • And more importantly for their employees • For decades, these greats were all built on the increasing value of their stock options • That‟s what used to bring, and retained, the best and the brightest • To these big companies
  • 23. Big Companies are Risky • When I graduated from university, • Most of the new graduates wanted to get jobs in the big companies • To learn „how it was done‟ • To work somewhere that was safe and stable • Today, working in a big company seems to be a pretty risky proposition • And certainly not a very lucrative one
  • 24. Startups create all the economic growth
  • 25. Startups Create All the Growth • In the old economy big was an advantage • Today being big seems to be the opposite • All of the economic growth is happening in small companies • In fact, startups have created ALL of the new jobs for the past three decades
  • 27. Lots Doesn‟t Work Anymore • Many big parts of the financial ecosystem • That worked for a hundred years • Don‟t work at all anymore • The economy has changed • The world has changed • But it‟s not all bad news – especially for entrepreneurs and Angel investors
  • 28. The Good News for Entrepreneurs
  • 29. Let‟s Focus on Our Economy • Most of you are entrepreneurs • Many are involved in the „new economy‟ • The knowledge based economy • What‟s changed in our part of the global economy? • More importantly – how do we capitalize on it? • What are the changes that we can make money with?
  • 30. Changes That Make Us Money • I think the five most important changes in the last decade that we can capitalize on are: 1. Innovation in startups 2. Internet acceleration 3. Capital efficiency 4. Availability of capital 5. Early exits
  • 32. Innovation is Our Opportunity • The world has become a very small place • Everything is interconnected • We can‟t manufacture much in North America • We almost can‟t write code here anymore • The first big change is in our economy is that • „Innovation‟ seems to be the last big opportunity to make money in North America
  • 33. Innovation Happens in Startups • The best and the brightest now work in startups • Startups are where the opportunities are • Where the excitement is • Where the smart people create the innovations • That‟s why all the economic and employment growth is created by startups • And why nerds can earn more that football players, rock musicians and movie stars
  • 35. Internet Acceleration • The internet has changed everything • The biggest change in our lifetimes • Larger impact than the printing press, automobile, air travel or atomic power • The internet hasn‟t just connected everything • It has also accelerated everything • That‟s the second big change
  • 36. The Internet is Changing Us • I don‟t know if it is technology driven evolution or just training, but • Young people‟s brains work differently now • Watch your kids multi-task • Ask a university professor how it looks to them • Many students are too ADD to read a full book • This is having a real impact on company formation, growth and exits
  • 37. Our Species is Evolving • People under 30 years old have much shorter attention spans • It‟s not just in their multi-tasking conversations or reading material • This shorter attention span also means that many of the team will start to think about moving to new jobs after 2 or 3 years
  • 38. The “Equity Effect” • Psychological vesting is about 2/3 of the time • That means that the smart portfolio decision for the employees is to move to the next company at: Time = 0.67 Vesting Period • The best and brightest go first • These combine to mean that many modern companies at two or three years from startup • Are „middle aged‟ and starting to decline • http://www.angelblog.net/Corporate_Structure.html
  • 40. New Startup Economics • Third, it‟ s amazing how little it costs to build a tech company today • Back when I was an entrepreneur, hardware and software companies cost $10s millions • That gave rise to the huge VC funds • Also one of the reasons innovation used to happen primarily in big companies • Today, entrepreneurs can build companies for $100,000s and, in some cases, $10,000s
  • 41. Why It Costs So Little Today • The Internet • Fundamentally changing how we work • And build companies • Instant access to the entire global market • Another example - open source software • More importantly - virtual companies
  • 42. Many Startups Raise No Capital • As an investor for almost 20 years now, • I‟m amazed by how many of the most successful companies I see • Or have helped to sell • Have raised no capital at all • Or just a little from friends and family • These bootstrapped companies are usually stronger and produce higher returns
  • 44. Let me repeat that • Yes, I just said there is no shortage of capital • Worried that I have been living under a rock? • Or haven‟t been reading the newspapers? • Yes, the papers say there is a shortage • Its not true • My friends who are investors and fund managers, here and in the US, all complain they can‟t find enough companies to invest in
  • 45. Financing in Previous Times • When I was a young entrepreneur, • Didn‟t matter if it was a hardware company or a software company • Most companies cost $10s millions to build • That created the enormous venture capital industry, parts of which are still around today • And many common misperceptions • Like that there is a shortage of capital
  • 46. What are your financing options? • Use your own resources – even if you don‟t have any money • Bootstrapping should always be your first choice • (yes, I am an investor, but that‟s the truth) • Some business models just can‟t be bootstrapped
  • 47. If you really do need investors • What are your options to raise private capital for your company? • How many of you are planning to go to a venture capital fund to raise your startup capital? • How many are planning on angel investors?
  • 48. Who Actually Finances Startups? • Just a couple of years ago when asked how many were planning to raise capital from VCs • A surprising number of entrepreneurs still thought VCs finance startups • The actual data is that Angel Investors finance 27x more startups than VCs • www.AngelBlog.net/Angels_Finance_27_Tim es_More_Start-ups_Than_VCs.html
  • 49. The Really Big Money • In America, each year Venture Capital Funds invest about $20 billion • Angel investors also invest about $20 billion each year • Even more surprising, Friends and Family investors invest about five times more than either VCs or Angels • From “Fools Gold” by Scott Shane 2009
  • 50. The Problem Is • Most of the people who invest in Friends and Family rounds • Really shouldn‟t. • Professional investors agree that the earliest rounds are actually the most difficult. • Friends and Family investors almost never have the knowledge and skills to objectively evaluate: – Valuations – Structures – Market opportunities – Technology
  • 51. Uh, Oh! • These are our friends and family! • And we really need their money. • But don‟t want to have awkward looks across the dinner table. • So what should we do?
  • 52. The Solution: • Fairness • Alignment • Governance • All built into the structure of the company, • through the first investment agreement.
  • 53. Finding an Angel in Vancouver • More good news is that there are lots of angel investors in BC • And many more angels just a short drive south • A third of the Bellingham Angel Group‟s investments are in BC • Angels are easy to find: • www.angelblog.net/How_to_find_an_ angel_investor_in_Vancouver.html
  • 54. Angel Co-Investment • Just a couple of years ago, the conventional wisdom was that angel investment topped out at around $2 million per company • Kauffman and ACA started talking about co-investment just a couple of years ago • Now I regularly see groups of angels investing $5 million to $10 million • Probably enough for 99+% companies
  • 55. The Biggest Investor in Canada • An angel investor friend of mine, Mike Volker • Is famous for saying that the biggest angel investor in Canada is • The SRED program • Don‟t forget IRAP • Your research, and much of your development, might only cost you 35 cents on the dollar
  • 56. Many Other Sources • We often think about banks • But they usually finance mature companies • Today, there are many new types of investors and lenders • New funds and entirely new investment structures for entrepreneurial companies • Search the web and ask your mentors
  • 57. Tip: Why are they investing? • What is the most significant reason investors decide to invest? • Hint: This answer applies not just to the Friends and Family round but to all rounds. • Expectation of a financial return? • Because they like the business plan? • The real answer – • Because they like you.
  • 59. Exits are the Best Part • I believe exits are the best part of being an entrepreneur or investor • It‟s when we get paid for all of our hard work and risk capital • But it‟s also the least well understood part of being an entrepreneur or private investor • Simply because it doesn‟t happen very often • One of my life goals is to provide information to help entrepreneurs execute better exits
  • 60. We Always Hear About The Big Exits • The media always reports the really big exits • From BC, it‟s exits like Club Penguin‟s $350 million sale to Disney • Or Google‟s purchase of YouTube for $1.6 billion • Those exits are very rare occurrences • The „new‟ big story is the large number of smaller exits
  • 61. Most Exits Are Under $20 Million • Mergerstat database shows the median price of private company acquisitions is under $25 million, when price is disclosed • But the price is not disclosed in most smaller transactions • I estimate the median price to be well under $20 million • And probably below $15 million
  • 62. Google Wants Even Earlier Exits • I was surprised recently to learn just how early Google wants to do acquisitions • Charles Rim one of the top Google M&A guys: • “90% plus of our transactions are small transactions. … less than 20 people, less than $20 million and that is truly the sweet spot” • “we do prefer companies that are pre-revenue” • http://www.angelblog.net/Google_Wants_Even _Earlier_Exits_Than_in_Early_Exits.html
  • 63. Examples of These Exits • Google bought Adscape for $23 million (now Adsense) • Google bought Blogger for $20 million (rumored) • Yahoo bought Oddpost for $20 million (rumored) • Ask Jeeves bought LiveJournal for $25 million • Yahoo bought Flickr for $30 million (rumored) • AOL bought Weblogs Inc for $25 million (rumored) • Yahoo bought del.icio.us for $30 – 35 million (rumored) • Google bought Writely for $10 million • Google bought MeasureMap for less than $5 million • Yahoo bought WebJay for around $1 million (rumored) • Yahoo bought Jumpcut for $15 million (rumored)
  • 64. Why This Is Happening Now • One of my friends from a Fortune 500 company explained it this way: – We (big companies) know we aren‟t good at new ideas or start-ups – We basically suck at building businesses from zero to $20 million in value – But we think of ourselves as really good at growing values from $20 million to $200 million or more
  • 65. Under $20 Million Is Easy – A company priced at $100 million is already out of our sweet spot to buy – $100 million also requires board approval – But at $20 million, it‟s really easy for me to get it approved just inside my division • Many big companies are spending more on M&A than internal R&D • Today, it‟s the best way for them to grow
  • 66. Big Corps Have So Much Cash • Many big companies have so much cash that it‟s a problem – shareholders complain • Google has $20 billion • eBay has $5 billion • Amazon has $3 billion • Yahoo has $3 billion • Microsoft has $35 billion • Apple has $75 billion  cash and investments
  • 67. Who Else Is Buying? • The most familiar buyers are Fortune 500 companies • But medium sized companies are also aggressive buyers – especially public ones • Private Equity funds are also coming back into the market now that debt is available • Also many individuals not ready to retire
  • 68. Weekender Sold in 10 Days • In 2009 when I wrote “Early Exits” • I speculated that one day: “They‟ll probably define an early exit as selling the company before the end of the weekender” • That almost happened in November 2009 • A team of entrepreneurs in London built a business in one day and sold it online in ten days: www.24hour-startup.com <– great video • Not an isolated example, see www.Flippa.com
  • 69. A New Really Early Exit • Anyone heard of the company PumkinHead? • How about About.me? • About.me was acquired by AOL • Just four days after its public launch • That may be a new record • But a better way to measure is from startup
  • 70. A Local Really Early Exit • This is a Vancouver company but they asked me to keep their details confidential – for now • This company wanted to test the idea for their product, so they called on a US customer • The customer asked to buy the company • The CEO called me for help • Three months later the money was in the bank • Company was less than 12 months from startup and hadn‟t launched the product yet
  • 71. Big Exits In Just 2 – 3 Years • Flickr sold for $30 million at 1.5 years old • Delicious sold for $30+million 2 years from startup • Club Penguin for $350 million at 2 years old • YouTube sold for $1.6 billion at 2 years old • Playfish sold for $275 million at 2 years old • Mint sold for $170 million at 3 years old • AdMob sold for $750 million at 3.5 years old
  • 72. How Early Can You Sell? • A common misunderstanding about M&A exits is that you have to grow the company to be profitable • Or grow it to be larger than $X millions of revenue • The real threshold is to „prove the business model‟ • For example, prove what a customer is worth and what they cost to acquire
  • 73. It‟s Often The Optimum Time • As soon as you prove the model is often the best time to sell • Always better to sell on an upward trend • Sell on the promise not the reality • Often when you can get the best price • Very often „stuff happens‟ • Most entrepreneurs wait too long to start
  • 74. The Most Heartbreaking Error • The most heartbreaking error I see entrepreneurs and boards make is to exit too late • It‟s caused by our fundamental human nature • And happens primarily due to a lack of education • In my opinion, more at the director level, than company management • This is probably the single factor that could most improve the returns of angel and fund portfolios
  • 75. Don‟t “Ride It Over the Top” Optimum Optimum time exit time 6 to start the exit IRR = 124% More typical time Investment Return (times) 5 to start the exit 4 More typical exit time 3 IRR = 15% 2 Fastest 1 Growth Phase 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Years from Investment
  • 77. Our 21st Century Economy • What works today: 1. Startups innovate and create jobs 2. Angels, Friends and Family finance them 3. Big companies, and others, buy them early 4. The buyers continue to grow the business 5. Entrepreneurs and Angels do it again
  • 78. A Golden Era For Entrepreneurs • There has never been a time before when • It was so easy for entrepreneurs to create • Such valuable companies • On so little capital, and • Sell them so early • For so much money
  • 79. Resources • www.Early-Exits.com – book on exit strategies for entrepreneurs • www.AngelBlog.net – blog for entrepreneurs and angel investors • www.Exits-Blog.com – blog on exits • www.BasilPeters.com – for this PowerPoint and videos of previous talks

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. We have all been very fortunate to live in British Columbia.I’ve received a world class education and the best health care in the world,All at very little direct cost to me, because I was born here, in one of the richest places in the world.
  2. When I was in grade school, I learned that the BC economy was based on Forestry,
  3. Mining
  4. And fishing. But there are many other countries in the world just as rich in natural resources. And today, at the beginning of the 21st century, the people there can bring natural resources to world marketsat much lower costs than we can. Our forestry, mining and fishing industries are all in trouble.They will never again be the economic engine to support the standard of living I have enjoyed my whole life here in BC,Or anywhere else in the western world.
  5. Think about itWhere was your clothing made?Where was your computer built?Your car?Even much of our food now comes from Asia
  6. Technology has made the world a much smaller place.Asia and India are now ‘right there’But they are happy to work for wages are one-tenth to one-hundredth of ours.And they are just as smart as we are and they are harder working.That’s all good for Asia and India’s prosperity,But not good news for our standard of living.
  7. These trends are combining to create a time that I believe history will call A golden era for entrepreneursThere has never been a time before whenIt was so easy for entrepreneurs to createSuch valuable companiesOn so little capital, and Sell them so early For so much money