Daily i-forex-report- by epic research 6 march 2013
1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT
6TH MARCH 2013
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2. HEADLINES
Aussie to Build on Rally as
Yen Reverses if ISM
Surprises Higher
Dollar Suffers Mild Retreat
on Volumeless Dow
Advance, Fed Remarks
TRADING TIPS Dollar Index Outlook Bullish
Ahead of RBA, Chinese
BUY EURUSD ABOVE News
1.3075 tgs Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Pours Cold
Water on Rate Cut Outlook
1.3095/1.3115 sl 1.3045
Japanese Yen Follows 10yr JGB Yields Higher
on Bond Sale Demand Drop
Upside Surprise on USNon-Mfg ISM May Drive
SELL USDJPY BELOW Swell in Risk Appetite
92.90 tgt 92.70/92.50 The Japanese Yen advanced as yields on the
benchmark 10-year government bonds
SL 93.20 pushed sharply higher, adding 2.6 percent to
record the largest daily advance in over two
weeks. The move followed a poor showing at
an auction of 10-year notes, where the bid-to-
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
cover measure of demand fell to 2.37
1.5105 tgt compared with 2.75 at a sale of similar paper a
month ago, marking the weakest uptake since
1.5085/1.5065 SL July 2009. The surge in borrowing costs
appears to have eroded the Yen’s near-term
1.5135 appeal as a cheap funding vehicle, forcing an
unwinding of carry trades financed in the
perennially low-yielding currency.
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8. ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next
Mar 4
Medium 3.5%
12 Mths (FEB)
NZD ANZ Commodity Price
00:00 Low 1.0% 0.3%
(FEB)
GBP Lloyds Business
00:01 Low 13 15
Barometer (FEB)
GBP Hometrack Housing
00:01 Low -0.1% -0.3%
Survey (YoY) (FEB)
GBP Hometrack Housing
00:01 Low 0.1% 0.0%
Survey (MoM) (FEB)
JPY Confirmation Hearing
00:30 for BoJ Governor Nominee Medium
Kuroda
00:30 AUD Inventories (4Q) Low 0.2% 0.6% 1.2%
AUD Company Operating
00:30 Low -1.0% -1.0% -2.7%
Profit (QoQ) (4Q)
AUD Building Approvals
00:30 Low 9.9% 8.1% 12.4%
(YoY) (JAN)
AUD Building Approvals
00:30 Low -2.4% 2.8% -1.7%
(MoM) (JAN)
AUD ANZ Job
00:30 Advertisements (MoM) Low 3.0% 0.6%
(FEB)
GBP Purchasing Manager
09:30 Medium 46.8 49 48.7
Index Construction (FEB)
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix
09:30 Medium -10.6 -4.3 -3.9
Investor Confidence (MAR)
EUR Euro-Zone Producer
10:00 High 1.9% 1.9% 2.1%
Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
EUR Euro-Zone Producer
10:00 Medium 0.6% 0.5% -0.2%
Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
EUR Euro-Area Finance
14:00 High
Ministers Meet in Brussels
14:45 USD ISM New York (FEB) Low 56.7
9. AUD AiG Performance of
22:30 Medium 45.3
Service Index (FEB)
Tue GBP Halifax Plc House
Low 0.2% -0.2%
Mar 5 Prices s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
GBP Halifax House Price
Low 1.7% 1.3%
(3MoY) (FEB)
GBP BRC Sales Like-For-
00:01 Low 1.0% 1.9%
Like YoY (FEB)
AUD Retail Sales s.a.
00:30 Medium 0.4% -0.2%
(MoM) (JAN)
AUD Current Account
00:30 Balance (Australian Dollar) Medium -15300M -14900M
(4Q)
AUD Australia Net Exports
00:30 Low 0.5 0.1
of GDP (4Q)
JPY Labor Cash Earnings
01:30 Medium -1.7%
(YoY) (JAN)
01:45 HSBC Services PMI (FEB) Medium 54
AUD Reserve Bank of
03:30 Australia Rate Decision High 3.00% 3.00%
(MAR 5)
EUR Italian Purchasing
08:45 Manager Index Services Medium 43.5 43.9
(FEB)
EUR French Purchasing
08:50 Manager Index Services Medium 42.7 42.7
(FEB F)
EUR German Purchasing
08:55 Manager Index Services Medium 54.1 54.1
(FEB F)
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing
09:00 Manager Index Services Medium 47.3 47.3
(FEB F)
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing
09:00 Manager Index Composite Medium 47.3 47.3
(FEB F)
GBP Purchasing Manager
09:30 Medium 51 51.5
Index Services (FEB)
GBP Official Reserves
09:30 Low $565M
(Changes) (FEB)
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
10:00 High -2.9% -3.6%
Sales (YoY) (JAN)
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
10:00 Medium 0.3% -0.9%
Sales (MoM) (JAN)
USD ISM Non-
15:00 Manufacutring Composite Medium 55 55.2
(FEB)
USD IBD/TIPP Economic
15:00 Low 47.2 47.3
Optimism (MAR)
NZD Value of All Buildings
21:45 Low 3.0% 9.6%
SA (4Q)
10. Wed JPY Bankruptcies (YoY)
Mar 6
Medium -5.2%
(FEB)
GBP New Car Registrations
Low 11.5%
(YoY) (FEB)
GBP BRC Shop Price Index
00:01 Low 0.6%
(YoY) (FEB)
AUD Gross Domestic
00:30 High 3.0% 3.1%
Product (YoY) (4Q)
AUD Gross Domestic
00:30 High 0.6% 0.5%
Product (QoQ) (4Q)
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
10:00 Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) High -0.9% -0.9%
(4Q P)
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
10:00 Domestic Product s.a. High -0.6% -0.6%
(QoQ) (4Q P)
EUR Euro-Zone Household
10:00 Medium 0.0%
Consumption (QoQ) (4Q P)
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
10:00 Medium -0.7%
Fixed Capital (QoQ) (4Q P)
EUR Euro-Zone
10:00 Government Expenditure Low -0.2%
(QoQ) (4Q P)
USD MBA Mortgage
12:00 Low -3.8%
Applications (MAR 1)
USD ADP Employment
13:15 Medium 168K 192K
Change (FEB)
USD Fed's Plosser Speaks
13:15 on Economic Outlook in Low
Lancaster, PA
CAD Bank of Canada Rate
15:00 High 1.00% 1.00%
Decision (MAR 6)
15:00 USD Factory Orders (JAN) Medium -2.2% 1.8%
Ivey Purchasing Managers
15:00 Medium 58.9
Index SA (FEB)
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline
15:30 Low -1857K
Inventories (MAR 1)
USD DOE U.S. Distillate
15:30 Low 557K
Inventory (MAR 1)
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil
15:30 Low 1130K
Inventories (MAR 1)
USD DOE Cushing OK
15:30 Low -75K
Crude Inventory (MAR 1)
USD U.S. Federal Reserve
19:00 Medium
Releases Beige Book
AUD AiG Performance of
22:30 Medium 36.2
Construction Index (FEB)
NZD QV House Prices
23:00 Low 6.2%
(YoY) (FEB)
11. JPY Official Reserve Assets
23:50 Low $1267.3B
(FEB)
JPY Japan Buying Foreign
23:50 Low -¥106.4B
Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1)
JPY Japan Buying Foreign
23:50 Low -¥665.4B
Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1)
JPY Foreign Buying Japan
23:50 Low ¥190.4B
Stocks (Yen) (MAR 1)
JPY Foreign Buying Japan
23:50 Low -¥82.6B
Bonds (Yen) (MAR 1)
Thu JPY Bank of Japan Rate
High 0.10% 0.10%
Mar 7 Decision (MAR 7)
EUR German Wholesale
Low 2.3%
Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
EUR German Wholesale
Low 0.3%
Price Index (MoM) (FEB)
AUD Trade Balance
00:30 Medium -427M
(Australian dollar) (JAN)
JPY Leading Index (JAN P)
05:00 Medium 93.4
(JAN P)
JPY Coincident Index (JAN
05:00 Low 92.6
P) (JAN P)
AUD Foreign Reserves
05:30 Low A$46.5B
(Australian dollar) (FEB)
EUR French Mainland
06:30 Unemployment Change Medium 29K
(4Q)
EUR French ILO
06:30 Medium 10.3%
Unemployment Rate (4Q)
EUR French ILO Mainland
06:30 Medium 9.9%
Unemployment Rate (4Q)
CHF SNB Final Result for
06:30 Medium
2012
CHF Unemployment Rate
06:45 Medium 3.1% 3.1%
s.a. (FEB)
CHF Unemployment Rate
06:45 Medium 3.4% 3.4%
(FEB)
EUR French Trade Balance
07:45 Low -4700M -5349M
(euros) (JAN)
CHF Foreign Currency
08:00 Low -4700M 427.0B
Reserves (FEB)
EUR Italian Producer Price
09:00 Low 2.0%
Index (YoY) (JAN)
EUR Italian Producer Price
09:00 Low -0.2%
Index (MoM) (JAN)
EUR German Factory
11:00 Medium 1.6% -1.8%
Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)
EUR German Factory
11:00 Low 0.6% 0.8%
Orders s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
12. GBP Bank of England Rate
12:00 High 0.50% 0.50%
Decision (MAR 7)
GBP BOE Asset Purchase
12:00 High 375B 375B
Target (MAR)
USD RBC Consumer
12:30 Low 49.5
Outlook Index (MAR)
USD Challenger Job Cuts
12:30 Low -24.4%
(YoY) (FEB)
EUR European Central
12:45 Bank Rate Decision (MAR High 0.8% 0.75%
7)
EUR ECB Deposit Facility
12:45 Medium 0.00% 0.0%
Rate (MAR 7)
13:30 USD Trade Balance (JAN) Medium -$43.0B -$38.5B
USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 Medium 355K 344K
(MAR 3)
USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q
13:30 Low 4.3% 4.5%
F)
USD Non-Farm Productivity
13:30 Low -1.5% -2.0%
(4Q F)
USD Continuing Claims
13:30 Low 3110K 3074K
(FEB 24)
CAD International
13:30 Merchandise Trade Low -0.55B -0.90B
(Canadian dollar) (JAN)
CAD Building Permits
13:30 Low -11.2%
(MoM) (JAN)
USD EIA Natural Gas
15:30 Low -171
Storage Change (MAR 1)
USD Household Change in
17:00 Low $1722B
Net Worth (4Q)
USD Consumer Credit
20:00 Medium $14.500B $14.595B
(JAN)
NZD Manufacturing Activity
21:45 Medium 1.6%
(4Q)
NZD Manufacturing Activity
21:45 Low 2.6%
Volume SA (QoQ) (4Q)
JPY Nominal Gross
23:50 Domestic Product (QoQ) High -0.4%
(4Q F)
JPY Gross Domestic
23:50 High -0.1%
Product (QoQ) (4Q F)
JPY Gross Domestic
23:50 High -0.4%
Product Annualized (4Q F)
JPY Trade Balance - BOP
23:50 Medium -¥1512.3B -¥567.6B
Basis (Yen) (JAN)
JPY Current Account Total
23:50 Low -¥626.0B -¥264.1B
(Yen) (JAN)
13. JPY Current Account
23:50 Low 34.2% -199.4%
Balance (YoY) (JAN)
JPY Bank Lending incl
23:50 Low
Trusts (YoY) (FEB)
JPY Bank Lending Banks
23:50 Low 1.6%
ex-Trust (FEB)
JPY Adjusted Current
23:50 Low ¥112.2B ¥98.1B
Account Total (Yen) (JAN)
JPY Gross Domestic
23:50 Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q Low -0.6%
F)
Fri JPY Eco Watchers Survey:
Mar 8
Medium 56.5
Outlook (FEB)
JPY Eco Watchers Survey:
Medium 49.5
Current (FEB)
EUR Bank of France
Medium 96 95
Business Sentiment (FEB)
CNY Trade Balance (USD) Medium -$8.85B $29.15B
(FEB)
CNY Imports (YoY) (FEB) Low -8.2% 28.8%
CNY Exports (YoY) (FEB) Low 7.6% 25.0%
EUR French Central
07:45 Government Balance Low -87.2B
(euros) (JAN)
CHF Consumer Price Index
08:15 Medium -0.30% -0.3%
(YoY) (FEB)
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised
08:15 Medium -0.1%
(YoY) (FEB)
CHF Consumer Price Index
08:15 Low 0.30% -0.3%
(MoM) (FEB)
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised
08:15 Low -0.5%
(MoM) (FEB)
EUR German Industrial
11:00 Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. Medium -1.2% -1.1%
(YoY) (JAN)
EUR German Industrial
11:00 Production s.a. (MoM) Low 0.4% 0.3%
(JAN)
13:15 CAD Housing Starts (FEB) Medium 172.0K 160.6K
USD Unemployment Rate
13:30 High 7.9% 7.9%
(FEB)
USD Change in Non-farm
13:30 High 155K 157K
Payrolls (FEB)
CAD Unemployment Rate
13:30 High 7.1% 7.0%
(FEB)
CAD Net Change in
13:30 High 7.5K -21.9K
Employment (FEB)
14. USD Change in Private
13:30 Medium 167K 166K
Payrolls (FEB)
USD Average Hourly
13:30 Earning All Employees Medium 2.1% 2.1%
(YoY) (FEB)
CAD Participation Rate
13:30 Medium 66.6
(FEB)
CAD Part Time Employment
13:30 Medium -1.4
Change (FEB)
CAD Full Time Employment
13:30 Medium -20.6
Change (FEB)
Average Hourly Earning All
13:30 Low 0.2% 0.20%
Employees (MoM) (FEB)
USD Underemployment
13:30 Low 14.4%
Rate (U6) (FEB)
USD Change in
13:30 Manufacturing Payrolls Low 10K 4K
(FEB)
USD Change in Household
13:30 Low 17
Employment (FEB)
USD Average Weekly Hours
13:30 Low 3440.0% 34.4
All Employees (FEB)
CAD Labor Productivity
13:30 Low -0.5%
(QoQ) (4Q)
USD Wholesale Inventories
15:00 Low 0.3% -0.1%
(JAN)
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