1) The study examines the impacts of COVID-19 on food marketing margins in Ethiopia using phone surveys of farmers, wholesalers, and retailers conducted in February 2020 and May 2020. 2) The surveys found that over 50% of farmers reported receiving less income in May compared to usual times, though most planned to continue vegetable production. Wholesalers reported decreased transport options and client numbers but stable or lower costs, while most retailers saw lower client numbers but stable or lower costs and losses. 3) Retail prices for the main vegetables remained quite stable between February and May, suggesting marketing margins absorbed most impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on vegetable supply chains in Ethiopia during the

1. Some Welfare Consequences of
COVID-19 in Ethiopia
Virtual Seminar | August 24, 2020

2. Food and nutrition security in
Addis Ababa during COVID-19
pandemic
Kalle Hirvonen
International Food Policy Research Institute
Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-19 in Ethiopia
Addis Ababa | 24 August 2020

3. Co-authors
Gashaw Tadesse Abate
IFPRI
Alan de Brauw
IFPRI

4. Phone Survey
 Building on a recent large, representative household survey in Addis Ababa
conducted in October 2019 and February 2020.
 Phone survey conducted in early May with 600 households, follow up in
June, July and August (low attrition rates; < 5 %).
 Focus on (self reported) income changes & food and nutrition security.
 Comprehensive food consumption modules administered in October 2019,
February 2020 and August 2020.

5. All rounds: more than 50 % report a loss in income
Change in income levels compared to usual incomes

6. All rounds: at least 35% report being extremely stressed

7. Household diet diversity Score (HDDS)
 Group food consumption into 12 food groups (cereals, vegetables, fruits,
meat, eggs, dairy, etc.).
 A widely used measure of food security.
 Score ranges between 1 and 12 with higher values indicating better food &
nutrition security.

8. Household diet diversity Score (HDDS)
Note:
1) Different shades of
blue = methodology used
is different
2) July survey coincided
with an Orthodox fasting
season

9. HDDS by pre-pandemic asset level

10. Consumption from selected food groups

11. Consumption distributions before and during the pandemic

12. Summary and conclusions
 In each round more than 50 % of households report a loss in income
 Self-reported stress levels are also very high.
oBoth are concentrated among the relatively poor (based on their pre-
pandemic asset levels).
 Despite this, we see little changes in household food consumption levels
or dietary diversity when we compare the phone survey data collected in
August 2020 to the data collected before the pandemic.
The initial COVID-19 shock in Addis Ababa was temporary and most
households were able to cope relatively well using savings or income from
safety nets (Urban-PSNP) and other support systems.

13. Mothers and Children under the Shadow of
COVID-19
Evidence from a phone survey in rural Ethiopia
Guush Berhane (IFPRI)
(with Kibrom Tafere (WB), Kibrom Abay (IFPRI), and John Hoddinott (Cornell))
WEBINAR ON
“Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-19 in Ethiopia”
08/24/2020

14. • COVID-19 pandemic: health and economic problem.
• Evidence: responding to the pandemic exacerbates poor economic and
social outcomes. Not much done on health and nutrition outcomes
• This study: women and children are likely to be the most affected.
• Question: how do mothers and children fare under the pandemic: dietary
diversity, and access to health and nutrition services? food security?
• Phone survey in June 2020 (follow up of a survey in August 2019)
Introduction

15. Food security situation has worsened (about half reporting)
3.4
47.8
48.8
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
Improved
About the same
Worsened
Q15.Comparedtothesameperiodlast
year,inthelast3monthshaveyour
problemsofsatisfyingfoodneedsofthe
household

16. Food gap increased but social protection appears to mitigate it
1.2
1.0
1.5
1.6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
PSNP nonPSNP
2019 2020

17. Pandemic affected people: Markets closed, Price increased, and Incomes lost
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Market not open
Being sick or fear of getting sick
High food prices
Unemployment/ loss of income
Schools being closed
Shortages in food supply
No effect
Fear of dying
Social distancing
Restricted from church/mosque
Travel restrictions
Quarantine or self-quarantine
Shops being closed
Which aspect of the coronavirus crisis has the greatest impact? (%)

18. Diet Diversity: Mothers
92%
53%
2%
26%
9%
7%
21%
7%
62%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
All starchy foods
Legumes
Nuts, seeds
Dairy
Flesh foods
Eggs
Vit A rich leafy green veg
Other Vit A fruit, veg
Other vegetables
Other fruits
% consuming food groups
2020
2019
Shifts in composition of diet diversity? consuming less of animal source foods and more from other groups!

19. Diet Diversity: Children
83%
31%
20%
4%
8%
10%
42%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Grains, roots and tubers
Legumes and nuts
Dairy products
Poultry, fish, meat
Eggs
Vitamin A rich fruits and vegetables
Other fruits and vegetables
2020
2019
Shifts in composition of diet diversity? consuming less of animal source foods and more from other groups!

20. Access to health services declined, but HEW visits increased
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Q4. Did you have any contact with a
HEW in the past 3 months?
Q7. Did you visit the health post for
any reasons related to your child or
yourself in the last 3 months?
Q8. Did you visit the woreda health
center for any reasons related to your
child or yourself in the last 3 months?
% yes
2020
2019

21. HEW involved in pandemic awareness; services reduced for 50%
activities
What are the services you received from the HEW in the last 3 months? (% change)
2%
3%
1%
2%
2%
2%
28%
7%
51%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Family planning
Immunization
Deworming
Antenatal care
Neonatal care
Management of severe malnutrition (OTP)
Sanitation (latrine use) and hygiene
Safe water use
Awareness about corona virus
Growth monitoring
Nutrition and care
Vitamin A or iron supplementation
Breastfeeding
Complementary feeding
Diarrhea treatment (ORS)
Malaria treatment or bed net use
HIV/ AIDS
Referral or management of sick child
Delivery care
Postnatal care
Pneumonia treatment

22.  We document important changes taking place between August 2019 and June 2020 in food
security, diet diversity, and access to health and nutrition services of mothers and their children.
 Three takeaways:
1) Food insecurity – measured by food gap - has increased between August 2019 and June 2020;
more so for the non-PSNP.
2) Overall, Diet Diversity seem to have improved for mothers and children. However, there has
been shifts in the composition of diets for both. Specifically, consumption of Animal Source
Foods has declined.
3)
 Access to health and nutrition services through visits by mothers and children has decreased.
 In contrast, contacts with the HEW have been improved, largely for COVID-19 related awareness
activities.
 This seem to have come at a cost of reduction of some other services: only about 50% of services
are maintained, or further strengthened (e.g., severe malnutrition monitoring, delivery care,
immunization).
Concluding remarks

23. CHALLENGES FOR LIVELIHOODS
AND FOOD SECURITY DURING
THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Evidence from a SPIR phone survey
Jessica Leight
IFPRI
Webinar Title: Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-
19 in Ethiopia
Washington, D.C. | August 24, 2020

24. Phone survey sample
 Survey respondents are beneficiaries of the fourth phase
of the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP4) and are
part of the USAID-funded Strengthening PSNP4
Institutions and Resilience (SPIR) project, implemented
by World Vision, CARE and ORDA in Amhara and
Oromia.
 Respondents are adult males from sample households in
IFPRI’s experimental impact evaluation of SPIR who
provided a phone number during the 2019 midline survey.
Only 35% of households had a phone; these households
are better off than the sample overall.
 The COVID-19 phone survey was conducted from June
1-14, 2020. Enumerators interviewed 1,188 households
out of a target sample of 1,328 households with phones.

25. The overwhelming majority of households
report a decline in income

27. Households report various coping
mechanisms used to address the income loss

29. 1 in 5 households could only meet one week’s
food needs from current resources

30. Households in Oromia exhibit higher rates of
food vulnerability

31. Severe food insecurity is much higher in
Oromia than in Amhara, reaching 50 percent

32. Food security also strongly overlaps with
crop loss due to desert locusts

33. 70 percent of households report decreases in
children’s egg and dairy consumption since COVID-19

34. Share of severely
insecure households
(FIES)
Greatest impact of COVID-19 is…
Hotspot
classification
by NDRMC/
ENCU, Jan 2020
Amhara Oromia Unemploymen
t/ loss of
income
Food
shortages
Travel
restrictions
1 – Emergency 22.5% 50.6% 24.7% 33.0% 18.4%
102 413 515 515 515
2 – Acute 11.1% 47.8% 23.2% 17.5% 27.6%
387 138 525 525 525
3 - Moderate 11.5% - - 20.1% 18.2% 34.5%
148 148 148 148
• As expected, the prevalence of severe food insecurity is
highest in Priority 1 hotspots, particularly in Oromia.
Food insecurity is particularly acute in previously
identified hotspots

35. • The overwhelming majority (80%) of respondents report
that they’ve experienced a decrease in income; the
primary coping mechanisms are (in order) the sale of
assets, the receipt of aid and the reduction of
consumption.
• Approximately 1 in 5 households report being able to
meet food needs for less than 7 days with available
resources.
• Nearly all households (90 percent) exhibit food
insecurity; 30 percent exhibit severe food insecurity.
Summary of findings

36. Food marketing margins during
the COVID-19 pandemic
Evidence from vegetables in Ethiopia
Kalle Hirvonen (IFPRI), Belay Mohammed (IFPRI), Bart Minten (IFPRI),
and Seneshaw Tamru (IGC)
Webinar Title: Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-19 in Ethiopia
August 24, 2020

37. Introduction
 COVID-19 pandemic is expected to lead to widespread increases in global
poverty and food insecurity (Torero 2020; Swinnen and McDermott 2020;
Barrett 2020)
 Changes in food and agricultural prices are an obvious concern to policy
makers in low and middle-income countries during this pandemic (Barrett
2020; Bellemare 2015).
 In this paper, we provide a careful study of farm and consumer prices and
marketing margins during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia

38. DATA: February 2020 (In-person) and May (Phone Survey)
 Focusing main value chain supplying vegetables to Addis Ababa
 Four major vegetable producing woredas in CRV in East Shewa zone: Adami
Tulu, Bora, Dhugda, and Lume
o (37 kebles- >=100 hectares of irrigated land):
oAdami Tulu (12), Bora (12)
oDhugda (7), and Lume (6)
 Five Vegetables
o Tomato (33% irrigated area), Onion (31%), Cabbage (8%), Pepper (8%),
ETK (9%), and other crops (12%)
 Main actors across the value chain: rural farmers, wholesale markets, wet
markets, and urban retailers

39. DATA
 February 2020 (In person)
 Producers:
o 810 farmers
 Wholesalers (in Addis Ababa):
o 56 wholesalers
 Wet markets
o Daily wholesale price survey
 Retail outlets (supermarkets, mini-
markets, local vegetable shops,
micro-sellers)
o 446 retail outlets
 May (Phone Survey)
 Producers:
o433 farmers
 Wholesalers
o30 wholesalers
 Wet markets
oDaily wholesale price survey
 Retail outlets (except micro-sellers)
o235 retail outlet

40. Comparison: February and May surveys
Observations and variables
Included in
phone
survey
Not included
in phone
survey Difference p-value
Farmers
Male headed households (%) 96.1 92.9 3.2 0.04
Level of education of respondent (years) 6.6 5.1 1.5 0.00
Vegetable business experience of respondent (years) 10.1 9.6 0.5 0.25
Observations: 433 546
Urban wholesalers
Male respondent (%) 93.3 100.0 -6.7 0.18
Level of education of respondent (years) 9.2 9.5 -0.3 0.68
Vegetable business experience of respondent (years) 11.3 10.4 0.9 0.63
Observations: 30 26
Urban retailers
Supermarket (%) 19.2 12.8 6.4 0.49
Fruit & vegetable grocery shops (%) 46.4 57.8 -11.4 0.08
Fruit & vegetable micro-sellers (%) 28.5 23.7 4.8 0.56
ET-FRUIT shops (%) 6.0 5.7 0.3 0.98
Male respondent (%) 45.1 49.5 -4.4 0.53
Level of education of respondent (years) 7.5 7.0 0.5 0.25
Vegetable business experience of respondent (years) 7.8 7.9 -0.1 1.00
Observations: 235 211

41. Stated income losses in the past month and future plans among farmers
Smallholders
(%)
Investors
(%)
Income changes:
"In the past 30 days w ould you say that your household received more or less
income compared to the income you usually receive at this time of the year?"
Much less 8.7 10.5
Less 50.8 53.0
Same 28.1 26.1
More 11.0 9.7
Much more 1.3 0.8
Future plans:
Plan to grow vegetables in next rainy season 77.5 88.8
Plan to grow vegetables in next irrigation season 94.6 88.1
Intention of farmers on land rental in next irrigation season:
No change 42.6 20.9
Rent in more 43.0 59.0
Rent in less 2.4 3.0
Rent out more 1.0 1.5
Rent out less 0.3 0.0
Do not know yet 10.7 15.7

42. Stated changes in traders' businesses compared to three months prior
Decreased
Remained
same Increased
Wholesalers (%) who believe that…
… the choice in transporters going to rural areas … 63.3 36.7 0.0
… the cost of transport from rural areas to Addis Ababa … 0.0 6.7 93.3
… the number of clients that they sell to … 83.3 0.0 16.7
… turnover (quantity of vegetables sold) … 86.7 0.0 13.3
… losses … 3.3 20.0 76.7
Retailers (%) who believe that…
… the choice in transporters fromwholesale markets … 55.7 37.5 6.8
… the cost of transport from Addis wholesale markets to retail shops … 1.3 24.7 74.0
… the number of clients that they sell to … 82.1 9.4 8.5
… turnover (quantity of vegetables sold) … 80.4 10.2 9.4
… losses … 11.5 26.4 62.1

43. Retail prices by vegetable type and survey round
 Tomato (+33%)
 Onion (+20%)
 Green pepper (-13)
 Cabbage (-12%)

44. Vegetable price structure before and during the pandemic, by vegetable type
 Margins as percentages of the final price

45. Share of transportation costs in final retail price, by vegetable and
survey round

46. Conclusion
 Substantial changes in vegetable prices
 Large price changes for farmers, but the effects are heterogeneous:
 Overall changes in wholesale and retail marketing margins have been relatively
less important
 Lower importance of transportation costs and the large contribution of urban
distribution costs in the final retail prices of vegetables.
 We take this as evidence of notable resilience in the local marketing systems.

47. Implications
 Close monitoring of price movements and the factors contributing to those
movements is paramount, especially during this crisis period
 Quantitative assessments on the relative importance of different segments in the
value chains are useful
 More focus on addressing potential inefficiencies in these urban distribution
systems is therefore called for.

48. The Short-run Impact of the COVID-19
Crisis on poverty in Ethiopia
Feiruz Yimer Mohammed (KSG, Harvard)
Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse (IFPRI)
Webinar Title: Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-19 in Ethiopia
Location | August 24, 2020

49. Key Questions
Objective:
Estimate the short-run welfare impact of the COVID-19 crisis, as a result of the
pandemic, domestic measures and global recession.
Specific questions:
 How much income have households lost ?
 How much has poverty increased ?
 How income loss varies by industry?
 What possible social protection measures can help to mitigate impact on poverty
and what is the associated fiscal cost?
Note: the analysis covers only the short-term impact of the crisis. Long-term
effects would likely be important and should be studied.
49

50. Approach
 Steps
 Step 1 – Estimate the part of household income that is “at-risk” of loss by industry;
 Step 2 – Estimate:
o Fraction of households who lose income out of those households with at-risk income;
o Income lost by households losing income as a fraction of their ‘pre-crisis’ income;
 Step 3 – Estimate the level of poverty – headcount and gap;
 Step 4 – Compare the with- and without-COVID levels to assess the impact on poverty
 Background
No full or complete lockdown in Ethiopia – stay-at-home campaign with some slowdown in
business/industrial activities early on, reduced operations of some government offices, school and
university closure, travel restrictions, state of emergency, some government support to businesses
and the vulnerable;
50

51. Approach
 Method:
SAM-multiplier analysis based on external shocks – a 33% fall in exports, strategic imports,
and remittances over six months relative to the pre COVID-19 levels;
Note 1: Exceptions: flower exports = 100%; coffee, cloth, leather, and textile exports = 50%;
Note 2: Strategic imports: fertilizer, fuel, chemicals, mineral products, metals, vehicles,
machinery and equipment, manufacturing materials
 Caveats
 No behavioural and policy responses have been accounted for – actual effects are likely to
be smaller than the estimates;
 Only external channels are considered – actual effects can be higher/different when
domestic channels (school closures, reduced business/factory operations…) are factored
in;
 Appears to provide reasonable estimates of the short-term welfare effects of the COVID-
19 pandemic and responses to combat it. 51

52. Approach
 Data – Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (2015/16), National Accounts
(2018/19),
 Updates to 2019/20
 Household consumption expenditure – grew at 85% of the growth in private
consumption component of the national accounts (or 55.8%);
 National poverty line – converted from 2015/16 prices to 2019/20 prices using the CSA
CPI series;
 Population – household size multiplied by CSA’s regional population growth rates
(based on the medium projections);
 Use the results from the SAM-multiplier analysis to obtain the likely loss in household
income by industry due COVID-19.
 Estimate the levels and change in poverty.
52

53. Results 1: Income losses can be relatively large
53
Sector
Total Monthly
Income Lost (in
USD)
Agriculture 158,955,118
Mining 1,177,850
Manufacturing 523,399
Electricity and gas 610,706
Construction 622,978
Wholesale/retail trade, vehicle repair
and maintenance
26,378,966
Hotel 3,235,738
Transport and communication 4,632,794
Finance 669,247
Public Administration 1,039,983
Extra territorial 360,766
Education 79,677
Health 1,432,194
Other service 5,530,034
 Income losses at the national
level could be as high as US$223
million or 3.41% of GDP
 Agriculture suffers the largest
drop in incomes in absolute terms
(export and remittances);
 Wholesale/retail trade is the next
hardest hit;

54. Results 2: Poverty may increase significantly
 Nationally the poverty headcount
estimate is 3.5 percentage points
(about 18 percent) higher than the
no-COVID rate;
 The poverty gap is estimated to be
1.1 percentage points higher
54
45.5
44.2
38.7
29.6
23.5
19.7
23.2
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ethiopia - Poverty headcount ratio at national
poverty lines (% of population)

55. Results 2: Poverty may increase significantly
55
Sector
Before
COVID
After
COVID
Change in
Poverty
New Poor
National 19.7 23.2 3.5
Agriculture 21.0 24.9 3.9 2,558,393
Mining 14.7 14.8 0.1 1,739
Manufacturing 10.2 11.4 1.2 1,358
Electricity and gas 8.7 11.9 3.2 6,911
Construction 16.0 16.3 0.3 5,462
Wholesale/retail & vehicle repair and maintenance 16.9 21.0 4.1 210,211
Hotel 11.7 13.4 1.7 13,708
Transport and communication 8.1 14.5 6.4 48,879
Finance 13.7 18.4 4.7 10,439
 Sectoral heterogeneity of estimates;

56. Summary
56
 A significant fraction of rural and urban households recently surveyed report income losses
related to the COVID-19 pandemic;
 This study attempted to estimate how large these income losses are and the consequent
impact on poverty status;
 It estimates that both the poverty head count and the poverty gap can increase significantly;
 The various measures the government has been taking – expand social protection, protect
employment, reduce the tax liabilities of businesses, and relevant macroeconomic
interventions – should continue to mitigate the welfare consequences of the pandemic.
 Caveats
 No behavioural and policy responses have been accounted for – actual effects are likely to
be smaller than the estimates;
 Only external channels are considered – actual effects can be higher/different when
domestic channels (school closures, reduced business/factory operations…) are factored in;
 Appears to provide reasonable estimates of the short-term welfare effects of the COVID-19
pandemic and responses to combat it.

57. Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-
19 in Ethiopia
Virtual Seminar | August 24, 2020
IFPRI-ESSP: http://essp.ifpri.info/
PSI: https://psi.gov.et/