The year 2027? How the new industrial revolution is influencing value creation in society
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My presentation from December 2017 on digital transformation in society
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The year 2027? How the new industrial revolution is influencing value creation in society
- 1. The Year 2027? ----- How the new industrial revolution is influencing value creation in society December 2017
- 2. Halloween in Nashville, 1974 2016
- 3. If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization) exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.... -Jack Welch
- 4. Digital is the main reason just over half the Fortune 500 companies have disappeared since the year 2000. -Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016 Yet..Digital disruption has only just begun.
- 5. Digital penetration has only just begun http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/the-case-for-digital-reinvention#0
- 6. Digitalization pressures revenue and profit growth http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/the-case-for-digital-reinvention#0
- 7. All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the future. What we don’t know we don’t know Outside our comprehension What we know What we know we don’t know Conway 2003
- 8. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
- 9. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
- 10. “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” - Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
- 11. 2015
- 12. H.I.S. Co. has two Hen’na Hotels run entirely by robots and plans to open 100 hotels. Food deliveries Check-in Automated Tasks Concierge Porters Cleaning Lawnmowing Room Service Robot Trashcan Robot Fish
- 13. Assembly Welding Food service Housekeeper Bookkeeping Telephone operator Programmers Data scientists Four types of jobs Autor et al., 2003 Cognitive “Brains” Manual “Hands” Routine “Well-defined rules” Non-routine “Rules difficult to define”
- 14. People • “Net generation” • 24x7 “mobile” workforce • Knowledge via MOOCs • Sharing not owning • Sustainability • Gigs and not jobs Technology • Broadband/wifi • Smart phones • Cloud • Internet of Things • Data/AI/ML/NN • Autonomous vehicles • Smart Robotics • VR/AR/Holography • 3D printing/ALM • Blockchains Open Source IP • Software • Hardware • Physibles Convergence of….. Finance • Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P • Cryptocurrencies • Blockchains • Mobile money and payments • M2M and R2R payments
- 16. Technology replacing Energy and Banking http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/
- 17. The New Multinationals CGE Platform Database with Quid visualization, 2015 Over $3 trillion in firm market cap Selected platform companies Emerging platform clusters 2016 Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary – licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0).
- 18. Intangible assets 87% of S&P 500 Market Value
- 19. FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP BMW 1916 122,000 $56B UBER 2009 7,000 $62B MARRIOTT 1927 200,000 $32B AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $21B WALT DISNEY 1923 185,000 $172B FACEBOOK 2004 15,000 $369B WALMART 1962 2,300,000 $206B ALIBABA 1999 36,000 $241B Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, and updated January 2017 Something fundamental is changing
- 20. The commodification of banking In 2000, the U.S. cash equities trading desk at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters employed 600 traders, buying and selling stock for large clients. Today there are just 2 traders left. http://www.nanalyze.com/2017/02/artificial-intelligence-investment-banking/
- 21. Access to resources, not ownership
- 22. Pipeline – Traditional linear value chain Supply-side economies of scale
- 23. Platform-based business models Demand-side economies of scale
- 24. Platforms leverage Network Effects Enabling transactions among strangers Value rises as more people use the platform
- 25. Interpersonal trust Institutional trust - brand Institutional trust – platform Enabling trust between strangers 1rst 2nd 3rd Changing nature of trust
- 26. “We want to help small businesses grow by solving their problems.” - Founder & CEO Jack Ma Expanding industry boundaries “to build the future infrastructure of commerce”
- 27. Design thinking turns needs into demand 27 IDEO “Jobs to be done” – Clayton Christensen
- 28. Alibaba Group – “Doing more with less”
- 29. TRUST: The prerequisite for scale and scope Third parties attached to platform − Fraud − Operational − Health, safety Payment systems − Functionality − Fraud Privacy of data − Cybersecurity − Ethical usage of personal data Trust in Digital Environments
- 30. The threat of the “Winner-take-all” Platforms http://www.the-digital-insurer.com/dia/zhong-an-chinas-first-complete-online-insurance-company/ https://www.ft.com/content/e76198d2-1b26-11e5-8201-cbdb03d71480 Moving into banking and insurance
- 31. Betting on “The winner takes all” Immelt’s goal: “A top 10 software company” by 2020 • Predix: USD 1 bln investment • Open-source model, e.g., Android • 19,000 developers + 3rd party developers • Software building blocks (e.g., blockchain)
- 32. CDO From elevators and escalators to “Moving humanity digitally” -Digital Officer
- 33. Omnichannel Business -”Life events” -Own customer relationship -Multiproduct, multichannel -Integrated value chain e.g., ING, Schindler Supplier -Products/services -Sell through another -Low-cost producer -Incremental innovation e.g., Sony Ecosystem Driver -One stop destination -Branded platform -Great customer experience -3rd party plug’n plays -Matchmaker e.g., Amazon, John Deere Modular Producer -Ecosystem plug’n play -Niche plug’n play -Adapt to ecosystems -Continuous innovation e.g., Paypal MIT study: Four incumbent digital business models Weill & Woerner 2015 Needs Life Events Demographics Purchase history Control over decisions on brand, price, quality, etc. * 32% Higher growth * 27% Higher profit margin
- 34. Many new data platforms emerging yet the winner will be the one that turns insight into customer productivity and efficiency
- 35. B2B digital leaders: 5Xs more revenue growth than their peers B2B B2B2C Leadership • Commit to digital at strategic level • Create culture anchored on innovation and execution • Shake up organizational structure and metrics to support digital aspirations Digital operational excellence • Create consistent online and offline experiences • Enable and empower sales force through data • Improve insight and decision making through end-to-end connection of processeshttp://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/how-b2b-digital-leaders-drive-five-times-more-revenue-growth-than-
- 36. Exploitation Improving existing value creation activities Exploration Developing new value creation activities Adapted from March 1991
- 37. Banking is essential, but banks are not. Bill Gates
- 38. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf “…an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party.”
- 39. From the north of Sweden
- 41. toborrow
- 43. Crowd equity financing enabling new entrants
- 44. Elio Motors becoming a reality https://www.eliomotors.com/
- 45. Community platform Hierarchicalfirm VS E.g., Ford ~ Created by employees within organizational boundaries E.g., Local Motors ~ Created by community collaborators regardless of affiliation Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012 The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?
- 46. “Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.” • 100xs lower capital cost • 5xs faster production
- 47. Local Motors to print 3D cars in its micro-factories
- 48. Olli - 3D printed autonomous vehicle with IBM Watson https://www.3dprintingbusiness.directory/news/local-motors-prepares-serial-production-ollie-3d-printed-smart-vehicles/ From 25-30,000 parts to 50 parts
- 49. Local and mobile factories Integrating offline and online communities Arizona Maryland Tennessee Germany
- 50. No one owns everything, Everyone owns something, all resources reside in networks. Adapted from Lévy 1997Image: Krebs Access, not ownership
- 52. Decline in routine jobs, even after recovery H. Siu (Univ of BC) & N. Jaimovich (Duke Univ), 2015 In 2000, the U.S. cash equities trading desk at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters employed 600 traders, buying and selling stock for large clients. Today there are just 2 traders left.
- 53. All jobs have been created within non-routine Food service Housekeeper Programmers Data scientist Admin Assistant Manufacturing
- 54. Jobs that did not exist in 2006 App developer Social media manager Uber driver Driverless car engineer Cloud computing specialist Big data analyst/data scientist Sustainability manager YouTube content creators Drone operators Millennial generational expert https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/10-jobs-that-didn-t-exist-10-years-ago/
- 55. Digitalizing the Investor network
- 56. From factories to office parks to….
- 58. “Third Places” and co-working spaces
- 59. Sharing economy for workspace? http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35246320
- 60. Gigging and Entrepreneuring in co-living/co-working spaces
- 61. Do-it-yourself (DIY) microfactory networks
- 62. Increasing forces for local community and circular economies
- 63. Trading one job for a number of “gigs”…
- 65. Rethinkery enables the AI CEO through “work looking for people” on Upwork
- 66. “Flash organization” created with Foundry staffing Upwork freelancers Valentine et al., 2017, http://hci.stanford.edu/publications/2017/flashorgs/flash-orgs-chi-2017.pdf
- 68. Digitalizing distributed ownership with no central actor other than a computer network?
- 69. Smart cities and microgrids Brooklyn Microgrid aims to create a local, neighborhood- powered grid that could operate in parallel to the main grid. One of the appeals of a microgrid is its potential to provide electricity to homes even if the main grid goes down. -NPR
- 70. Self-owning machines with blockchains and cryptocurrencies https://mybit.io/
- 71. • Automation • Globalization • Rising productivity of select few -Ryan Avent Increasing social responsibility An increasing abundance of labor
- 72. If replace 1000 workers with one more robot Data from 1990 to 2007 in the USA 1) Employment to population ratio down by 0.18-0.34 PPt 2) Wages down by 0.25-0.50% D. Acemoglu (MIT) & P. Restrepo (Boston Univ), Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets 2017, Natl Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper.
- 73. Changes in the top 10 skills
- 74. www.menti.com 59 26 7 Vilka 2-3 kompetenser tror du kommer att behövas i 2025?
- 75. Cognitive Manual Routine Non-routine Predicted Automation Rate 64-69% Future Skills in Demand • Creativity • Complex problem solving • Generating new patterns • Coordinating others • Negotiating • Emotional intelligence Predicted Automation Rate <20% Predicted Automation Rate 81% Predicted Automation Rate 26% Jobs
- 77. The role of universities?
- 79. What progress is this? https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handelsh%C3%B6gskolan_i_Stockholms_historia
- 80. Knowledge through MOOCs (Massively Open Online Courses)
- 82. Facilitating innovation at a makerspace at Georgia Institute of Technology https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/53813/a_review_of_university_maker_spaces.pdf
- 83. Enabling problem-based learning Asmen Gül <asmen@kth.se>
- 84. “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” - Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996 Scenario Thinking
- 85. Knowledge through MOOCs (Massively Open Online Courses)
- 87. Your networks matter Your position in a social network partly determines your future opportunities. Casper & Murray 2002 German biotech scientists
- 88. BA Two individuals/organizations with the same number of contacts…
- 89. …but with very different access to resources BA
- 90. ”No one knows everything, everyone knows something, all knowledge resides in humanity.”networks Adapted from Lévy 1997 Boundary spanner • Better career • Higher salary • Adapt more quickly to change
- 91. Six degrees of separation - Milgram, 1967 Image: http://www.deliveringhappiness.com/on-six-degrees-of-separation/
- 92. Build relationships before you need them @padday, www.thinkoutsidein.com/blog
- 93. Exploitation Improving existing value creation activities Exploration Developing new value creation activities Adapted from March 1991
- 94. Robin Teigland robin.teigland@hhs.se www.robinteigland.com www.slideshare.net/eteigland @robin.teigland If you love knowledge, set it free… If you like this presentation and would like to contribute to our research, we accept bitcoins: 1HthhUB62EzqEyKaAKvF1LGTabcdp4HsU. Thank you!!!!!