SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 105
March 2016
www.hhs.se
Halloween in Nashville, 1974
The future is already here,
it’s just not very evenly
distributed.
- William Gibson
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
2015
• What technologies are used?
• What assumptions are broken?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-rEI4bezWc
People
• “Net generation”
• 24x7 “mobile” workforce
• Knowledge via MOOCs
• Sharing not owning
• Sustainability
• Work but not employed
Technology
• Broadband
• Smart phones
• The cloud
• Internet of Things
• Big Data
• 3D printing
• Robotics/AI
• VR/AR
• Holography
Open Source IP
• Software
• Hardware
• Physibles
Convergence of…..
Finance
• Microlending/microfinance
• Crowdfunding/equity/P2P
• Cryptocurrencies
• Blockchain
• Mobile money/payments
• M2M payments
History tends to repeat itself….
Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution, …
Steam
engine
Internal
combustion
engine
Internet
Microelectronics
Late 18th C Late 19th C Late 20th C
Schön 2008
Third
industrial
revolution?
Uber
• Launched June 2010
• >330 cities in 60 countries
• Limited physical assets
• > USD 60 bln valuation
(Ericsson – USD 30 bln)
“Doing more with less” through a global
platform
From 60 years in 1960 to 16 in 2010
Increasing pace of change
 From 2000 to 2010
− 40% Fortune 500 list replaced
 Predictions
− In next few years, 70% Fortune 1000 to be
replaced
− By 2020, >75% of S&P 500 do not exist today
− By 2025, >45% of Fortune 500 to be from
emerging markets
Fast Company, McKinsey & Inc
USD 45 bln
Amazon + 3rd-party vendors
> Wal-Mart in 2016?
Doing more with less
A system that activates the untapped
value of all kinds of assets through models
and marketplaces that enable greater
efficiency and access.
- Botsman
The Sharing Economy
Harvard Business Review, 2014
The Sharing Economy: Embracing Change with Caution
http://www.slideshare.net/eteigland/sharing-economy-webb
Examples and well-known actors
in the Sharing Economy
Asset Examples Actors Swedish Actors
Tangible
Transportation
Property
Food
Uber
BlaBlaCar
Didi Kuaidi
AirBnB
Skjutsgruppen
SunFleet
Hoffice
Intangible:
Financial
Crowdfunding
P2P lending
Kickstarter
Indiegogo
LendingClub
Prosper
GoFundMe
FundedByMe
Crowdcube
ToBorrow
Intangible:
Services
Professional
Personal
Innocentive
Mechanical Turk
Upwork
TaskRabbit
eWork
Vint
TaskRunner
The Sharing Economy is enabled through
peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions on
multi-sided platforms (MSPs)
http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/strategic-decisions-for-multisided-platforms/
LEARNING
p2p learning open courses & moocs
PRODUCTION
co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers)
FINANCE
p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies
GOVERNANCE
SWARM
participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO
CONSUMPTION
redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services
COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
“Sharing” is big business…
http://www.web-strategist.com/blog/2015/06/04/the-collaborative-sharing-economy-has-created-17-billion-dollar-companies-and-
10-unicorns/
USD 26 bln today -> USD 335 bln in 2025
In-house initiatives
Increasing efforts to regulate the sharing economy
If Uber were to pay drivers as employees in USA.
Spawning a new form of capitalism -
Modern day sweatshops?
Digital Robber Barons?
“Monopoly” platform “Monopoly” platform
“Perfect
competition”
“Perfect
competition”
Jobs vs Gigs
LEARNING
p2p learning open courses & moocs
PRODUCTION
co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers)
FINANCE
p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies
GOVERNANCE
SWARM
participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO
CONSUMPTION
redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services
COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
Banking is essential,
but banks are not.
Bill Gates
The emergence of FinTech
Local Stockholm success story:
Flippin’ Burgers
Money raised:
SEK 36,502 /
€4,000
Number of
investors: 186
Date funded:
September 2011
Sector: Food
Enabling local, small-scale solutions
http://travel.cnn.com/best-americana-restaurants-europe-023346
Four forms of crowdfunding
Form Benefits for funders
Donation-
based
Donation Intangible benefits.
Reward-
based
Donation or pre-
purchase
Rewards in addition to
intangible benefits.
Equity-based Investment
Return on investment if
company does well. Rewards
sometimes also offered and
intangible benefits may motivate
too.
Loan-based Loan
Repayment of loan with
interest. Alternatively intangible
benefits if loan given interest-
Toborrow.se
zopa
Crowdfunding growth 2012-2015
USD 34 bln E
But in China alone in 2015…
http://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2016/01/79612-report-china-p2p-lending-topped-150-billion-in-2015/
Democratizing innovation
through access to capital?
“Made in Africa” 3D printer (Togo)
Winner of International
Space Apps Challenge
http://www.engineering.com/3DPrinting/3DPrintingArticles/ArticleID/5712/E-Waste-3D-Printer-to-Mars.aspx
What is FinTech?
Accenture/CB Insights
Technologies for banking and corporate finance,
capital markets, financial data analytics,
payments, and personal financial management
Finance TechnologyFinTech
A recent survey of milennials
>USD14
2015E
Profits from non-mortgage retail lending, e.g., credit
cards, car loans, could be reduced by 60% and revenues
by 40% over next decade.
Launching in beta
https://www.getdreams.com/en
Encouraging financial inclusion
Bitcoin – An emergent phenomenon
• Open source project on SourceForge in Jan 2009
• Original source code by “Satoshi Nakamoto” – pseudonym?
• Developed by self-organizing community of thousands of
strangers across globe
• Approx USD 6.3 bln market cap and approx 180,000 daily
transactions volume 1 BTC = USD 413 (March 8, 2016)
Teigland, Yetis, Larsson 2013 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2263707
Within 6 years:
Challenging the
fiat money
system?
Bitcoin – one of 100s of cryptocurrencies
https://coinmarketcap.com/
What is a cryptocurrency?
 Digital
 Decentralized, peer-to-peer (P2P), i.e., no central,
third party
 Uses cryptography to validate/secure transactions
 Also uses cryptography to generate currency itself
 Non-technical explanation of Bitcoin
− https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5JGQXCTe3c
How does Bitcoin work?
Screenclip from: How Bitcoin Works under the hood, by “Curious Inventor”
Block chain
• Shared public ledger
• All transactions ever
made logged
• Chronology and
integrity enforced by
cryptography
Betting on the Blockchain - Together
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan,
Credit Suisse, Barclays,
Commonwealth Bank of
Australia,
State Street, RBS, BBVA, UBS,
Nordea, SEB, + ……
+
Enablers of a “true” Collaborative Economy?
Blockchains
Collaborative
Economy
IoT/sensors
P2P/M2M
micropayments
Big data
LEARNING
p2p learning open courses & moocs
PRODUCTION
co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers)
FINANCE
p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies
GOVERNANCE
SWARM
participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO
CONSUMPTION
redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services
COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
The automotive industry
Disruptions ......the likes of which the
industry hasn’t seen since the
automated assembly line.
http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2015/01/auto-industry-innovation.html
59
https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/startups-drive-auto-industry-disruption/
New technologies enable new entrants
As do new forms of financing…crowd equity
No one knows everything,
everyone knows something,
all knowledge resides in humanity.networks.
Adapted from Lévy 1997Image: Krebs
“Local Motors is the place for people to create
influential vehicles together.”
http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/02/local-motors-and-the-radical-redesign-of-business.html
• 100xs less capital cost
• 5xs faster production
Local Motors to print 3D cars
in its micro-factories
Microfactories – Local and Mobile
Integrating offline and online communities
Community platform
Hierarchicalfirm
VS
E.g., Ford
~ Created by employees within
organizational boundaries
E.g., Local Motors
~ Created by community collaborators
regardless of affiliation
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?
Darja Isaksson, Ziggy
Automated, fossil free, service-based
The Sharing Economy:
How many cars do we need?
Increasing number of substitutes
New forms of “face to face” meetings
How does Bitcoin work?
Screenclip from: How Bitcoin Works under the hood, by “Curious Inventor”
Block chain
• Shared public ledger
• All transactions ever
made logged
• Chronology and
integrity enforced by
cryptography
Betting on the Blockchain - Together
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan,
Credit Suisse, Barclays,
Commonwealth Bank of
Australia,
State Street, RBS, BBVA, UBS,
Nordea, SEB, + ……
+
Groupwork
 Prepare max 8 min ppt presentation answering the
questions in Notes in your groups:
1. Sharing Economy
2. Internet of Things
3. 3D Printing
4. Crowdfunding
5. Crowdsourcing
 Some search tips
− Company homepages blogs
− www.wikipedia.org www.slideshare.net
− www.youtube.com www.instagram
− www.linkedin.com www.facebook.com
− www.twitter.com
If the rate of change on the
outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of change on
the inside, the end is near....
-Jack Welch
From factories ….
...to offices…
…to server halls and …
….. robots and
MX3D to 3D print steel bridge
.… “Third Places” and co-working spaces
US: 40% of workforce freelancers
Hoffice – a Swedish concept gone global
Jobs that did not exist 10 years ago
 iOS/Android developer
 Social media manager
 UI/UX designer
 Big data architect
 Cloud services specialist
 Digital marketing specialist
 Sustainability expert
 Zumba instructor
 Beach body coach
 Drone pilot and photographer
http://talent.linkedin.com/blog/index.php/2014/01/top-10-job-titles-that-didnt-exist-5-years-ago-infographic
Increasing forces
for local community
Scheveningen Harbor – The Hague
A 3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat
RepRap community
E-commerce
My first attempt at 3D printing – successful!
Microfactories and local networks of 3D printers
Enabling circular economies
• Printers printing themselves
• Recycling local garbage into filament
DIY Growing
Turning 3D printing into a business…
http://openfabpdx.com/fffiddle/
Developing circular economies
Local demands?
Local materials?
Reduced transport?
What’s around the corner?
24x7 Global Internet Collaboration + Open Source + 3D Printing
http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/
$60,000
$150
Available for free
download on
$45
Where is
the firm?
$5
Thomas Jefferson (1816)
“Laws and institutions must go hand in hand
with the progress of the human mind.”
The problem is that the human mind itself
can’t keep pace with the advances that
computers are enabling.
http://wadhwa.com/2014/04/15/mit-technology-review-laws-and-ethics-cant-keep-pace-with-technology/
The challenge of ensuring trust
Leap of faith when
meeting strangers ->
Increased trust in
society?
Innovation is forward
looking while
regulations are
backward looking.
http://www.weforum.org/sessions/summary/rise-demand-economy
Some questions…
• What basic assumptions will no longer hold,
e.g., economies of scale, third party
verification?
• How will trust be enabled?
• How will new forms of value creation be
regulated?
• Why does the firm exist?
Exploitation
Improving existing
value creation
activities
Exploration
Developing new
value creation
activities
Adapted from March 1991
http://www.slideshare.net/eteigland
Robin Teigland
robin.teigland@hhs.se
www.slideshare.net/eteigland
www.funnovation.se
@robin.teigland
If you love knowledge,
set it free…
If you like this presentation and would like to
contribute to our research, we accept bitcoins:
14hs4JbnQLXE87GGzu84uXGaspmxmnLpwC.
Thank you!!!!!

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Third and Fourth Industrial Revolutions?

  • 3. The future is already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed. - William Gibson
  • 4. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  • 5. Thx to R. Wieselfors, Ericsson for photos
  • 7. • What technologies are used? • What assumptions are broken? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-rEI4bezWc
  • 8. People • “Net generation” • 24x7 “mobile” workforce • Knowledge via MOOCs • Sharing not owning • Sustainability • Work but not employed Technology • Broadband • Smart phones • The cloud • Internet of Things • Big Data • 3D printing • Robotics/AI • VR/AR • Holography Open Source IP • Software • Hardware • Physibles Convergence of….. Finance • Microlending/microfinance • Crowdfunding/equity/P2P • Cryptocurrencies • Blockchain • Mobile money/payments • M2M payments
  • 9.
  • 10. History tends to repeat itself…. Innovation, financial crisis, industrial revolution, … Steam engine Internal combustion engine Internet Microelectronics Late 18th C Late 19th C Late 20th C Schön 2008 Third industrial revolution?
  • 11. Uber • Launched June 2010 • >330 cities in 60 countries • Limited physical assets • > USD 60 bln valuation (Ericsson – USD 30 bln) “Doing more with less” through a global platform
  • 12. From 60 years in 1960 to 16 in 2010
  • 13. Increasing pace of change  From 2000 to 2010 − 40% Fortune 500 list replaced  Predictions − In next few years, 70% Fortune 1000 to be replaced − By 2020, >75% of S&P 500 do not exist today − By 2025, >45% of Fortune 500 to be from emerging markets Fast Company, McKinsey & Inc
  • 15. Amazon + 3rd-party vendors > Wal-Mart in 2016?
  • 17. A system that activates the untapped value of all kinds of assets through models and marketplaces that enable greater efficiency and access. - Botsman The Sharing Economy Harvard Business Review, 2014 The Sharing Economy: Embracing Change with Caution http://www.slideshare.net/eteigland/sharing-economy-webb
  • 18. Examples and well-known actors in the Sharing Economy Asset Examples Actors Swedish Actors Tangible Transportation Property Food Uber BlaBlaCar Didi Kuaidi AirBnB Skjutsgruppen SunFleet Hoffice Intangible: Financial Crowdfunding P2P lending Kickstarter Indiegogo LendingClub Prosper GoFundMe FundedByMe Crowdcube ToBorrow Intangible: Services Professional Personal Innocentive Mechanical Turk Upwork TaskRabbit eWork Vint TaskRunner
  • 19. The Sharing Economy is enabled through peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions on multi-sided platforms (MSPs) http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/strategic-decisions-for-multisided-platforms/
  • 20. LEARNING p2p learning open courses & moocs PRODUCTION co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers) FINANCE p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies GOVERNANCE SWARM participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO CONSUMPTION redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
  • 21. “Sharing” is big business… http://www.web-strategist.com/blog/2015/06/04/the-collaborative-sharing-economy-has-created-17-billion-dollar-companies-and- 10-unicorns/ USD 26 bln today -> USD 335 bln in 2025
  • 23. Increasing efforts to regulate the sharing economy
  • 24. If Uber were to pay drivers as employees in USA.
  • 25. Spawning a new form of capitalism - Modern day sweatshops? Digital Robber Barons? “Monopoly” platform “Monopoly” platform “Perfect competition” “Perfect competition”
  • 27. LEARNING p2p learning open courses & moocs PRODUCTION co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers) FINANCE p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies GOVERNANCE SWARM participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO CONSUMPTION redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
  • 28. Banking is essential, but banks are not. Bill Gates The emergence of FinTech
  • 29. Local Stockholm success story: Flippin’ Burgers Money raised: SEK 36,502 / €4,000 Number of investors: 186 Date funded: September 2011 Sector: Food
  • 30. Enabling local, small-scale solutions http://travel.cnn.com/best-americana-restaurants-europe-023346
  • 31.
  • 32. Four forms of crowdfunding Form Benefits for funders Donation- based Donation Intangible benefits. Reward- based Donation or pre- purchase Rewards in addition to intangible benefits. Equity-based Investment Return on investment if company does well. Rewards sometimes also offered and intangible benefits may motivate too. Loan-based Loan Repayment of loan with interest. Alternatively intangible benefits if loan given interest-
  • 34. zopa
  • 36. But in China alone in 2015… http://www.crowdfundinsider.com/2016/01/79612-report-china-p2p-lending-topped-150-billion-in-2015/
  • 37.
  • 39. “Made in Africa” 3D printer (Togo) Winner of International Space Apps Challenge http://www.engineering.com/3DPrinting/3DPrintingArticles/ArticleID/5712/E-Waste-3D-Printer-to-Mars.aspx
  • 40. What is FinTech? Accenture/CB Insights Technologies for banking and corporate finance, capital markets, financial data analytics, payments, and personal financial management Finance TechnologyFinTech
  • 41.
  • 42. A recent survey of milennials
  • 43.
  • 45. Profits from non-mortgage retail lending, e.g., credit cards, car loans, could be reduced by 60% and revenues by 40% over next decade.
  • 48. Bitcoin – An emergent phenomenon • Open source project on SourceForge in Jan 2009 • Original source code by “Satoshi Nakamoto” – pseudonym? • Developed by self-organizing community of thousands of strangers across globe • Approx USD 6.3 bln market cap and approx 180,000 daily transactions volume 1 BTC = USD 413 (March 8, 2016) Teigland, Yetis, Larsson 2013 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2263707 Within 6 years: Challenging the fiat money system?
  • 49. Bitcoin – one of 100s of cryptocurrencies https://coinmarketcap.com/
  • 50. What is a cryptocurrency?  Digital  Decentralized, peer-to-peer (P2P), i.e., no central, third party  Uses cryptography to validate/secure transactions  Also uses cryptography to generate currency itself  Non-technical explanation of Bitcoin − https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5JGQXCTe3c
  • 51. How does Bitcoin work? Screenclip from: How Bitcoin Works under the hood, by “Curious Inventor” Block chain • Shared public ledger • All transactions ever made logged • Chronology and integrity enforced by cryptography
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54. Betting on the Blockchain - Together Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, State Street, RBS, BBVA, UBS, Nordea, SEB, + …… +
  • 55.
  • 56. Enablers of a “true” Collaborative Economy? Blockchains Collaborative Economy IoT/sensors P2P/M2M micropayments Big data
  • 57. LEARNING p2p learning open courses & moocs PRODUCTION co-design / co-innovationdigital peer production distributed fabrication (makers) FINANCE p2p funding p2p payments p2p insurance compl. currencies GOVERNANCE SWARM participatory organizations participatory government blockchain / DAO CONSUMPTION redistribution local food systemsproduct-service on-demand services COLLABORATIVE ECONOMY FRAMEWORK V0.1
  • 58. The automotive industry Disruptions ......the likes of which the industry hasn’t seen since the automated assembly line. http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2015/01/auto-industry-innovation.html
  • 59. 59
  • 61. New technologies enable new entrants
  • 62. As do new forms of financing…crowd equity
  • 63. No one knows everything, everyone knows something, all knowledge resides in humanity.networks. Adapted from Lévy 1997Image: Krebs
  • 64. “Local Motors is the place for people to create influential vehicles together.” http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2015/02/local-motors-and-the-radical-redesign-of-business.html • 100xs less capital cost • 5xs faster production
  • 65.
  • 66. Local Motors to print 3D cars in its micro-factories
  • 67. Microfactories – Local and Mobile Integrating offline and online communities
  • 68. Community platform Hierarchicalfirm VS E.g., Ford ~ Created by employees within organizational boundaries E.g., Local Motors ~ Created by community collaborators regardless of affiliation Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012 The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?
  • 69. Darja Isaksson, Ziggy Automated, fossil free, service-based
  • 70. The Sharing Economy: How many cars do we need?
  • 71. Increasing number of substitutes
  • 72. New forms of “face to face” meetings
  • 73.
  • 74. How does Bitcoin work? Screenclip from: How Bitcoin Works under the hood, by “Curious Inventor” Block chain • Shared public ledger • All transactions ever made logged • Chronology and integrity enforced by cryptography
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77. Betting on the Blockchain - Together Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, State Street, RBS, BBVA, UBS, Nordea, SEB, + …… +
  • 78.
  • 79. Groupwork  Prepare max 8 min ppt presentation answering the questions in Notes in your groups: 1. Sharing Economy 2. Internet of Things 3. 3D Printing 4. Crowdfunding 5. Crowdsourcing  Some search tips − Company homepages blogs − www.wikipedia.org www.slideshare.net − www.youtube.com www.instagram − www.linkedin.com www.facebook.com − www.twitter.com
  • 80. If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization) exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.... -Jack Welch
  • 81.
  • 85. ….. robots and MX3D to 3D print steel bridge
  • 86. .… “Third Places” and co-working spaces US: 40% of workforce freelancers
  • 87. Hoffice – a Swedish concept gone global
  • 88. Jobs that did not exist 10 years ago  iOS/Android developer  Social media manager  UI/UX designer  Big data architect  Cloud services specialist  Digital marketing specialist  Sustainability expert  Zumba instructor  Beach body coach  Drone pilot and photographer http://talent.linkedin.com/blog/index.php/2014/01/top-10-job-titles-that-didnt-exist-5-years-ago-infographic
  • 90.
  • 92. A 3D printer workshop on Lisette’s boat RepRap community E-commerce
  • 93. My first attempt at 3D printing – successful!
  • 94. Microfactories and local networks of 3D printers
  • 95. Enabling circular economies • Printers printing themselves • Recycling local garbage into filament
  • 97. Turning 3D printing into a business… http://openfabpdx.com/fffiddle/
  • 98. Developing circular economies Local demands? Local materials? Reduced transport?
  • 99. What’s around the corner? 24x7 Global Internet Collaboration + Open Source + 3D Printing http://mashable.com/2013/02/13/robohand/ $60,000 $150 Available for free download on $45 Where is the firm? $5
  • 100. Thomas Jefferson (1816) “Laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind.” The problem is that the human mind itself can’t keep pace with the advances that computers are enabling. http://wadhwa.com/2014/04/15/mit-technology-review-laws-and-ethics-cant-keep-pace-with-technology/
  • 101. The challenge of ensuring trust Leap of faith when meeting strangers -> Increased trust in society? Innovation is forward looking while regulations are backward looking. http://www.weforum.org/sessions/summary/rise-demand-economy
  • 102. Some questions… • What basic assumptions will no longer hold, e.g., economies of scale, third party verification? • How will trust be enabled? • How will new forms of value creation be regulated? • Why does the firm exist?
  • 103. Exploitation Improving existing value creation activities Exploration Developing new value creation activities Adapted from March 1991
  • 105. Robin Teigland robin.teigland@hhs.se www.slideshare.net/eteigland www.funnovation.se @robin.teigland If you love knowledge, set it free… If you like this presentation and would like to contribute to our research, we accept bitcoins: 14hs4JbnQLXE87GGzu84uXGaspmxmnLpwC. Thank you!!!!!