Authors: Simon French, University of Warwick Nikolaos Argyris, University of Warwick William J. Nuttall, The Open University John Moriarty, University of Manchester Philip J.Thomas, City University

1. The Early Phase of a Radiation Accident:
Revisiting Thinking on Evacuation
and Exclusion Zones
Simon French
University of Warwick
simon.french@warwick.ac.uk
Nikolaos Argyris
University of Warwick
William J. Nuttall
The Open University
John Moriarty
University of Manchester
Philip J.Thomas@city.ac.uk
City University

2. Management of Nuclear Risk Issues:
Environmental, Financial and Safety (NREFS)
• Funded by UKEPSRC-India Civil Nuclear Research
Collaboration
– UK: City, Manchester, Open and Warwick Universities
– India: Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Department of
Atomic Energy (DAE).
• But the ideas here do not necessarily represent the
views of our sponsors
and
• hopefully, they are not our ideas but yours. We want
to discuss issues!

3. Chernobyl and Fukushima
• Both evacuated near residents and established
exclusion zones
– creating a public expectation that this will always be
the case
• But in both cases it was feasible to do so
• What happens for nuclear plant
– near major conurbations
• e.g. Mumbai
– near major socio-economic systems
• e.g. oil refinery, manufacturing?

4. Related Issues
• What are the criteria for lifting the measures?
• Equity issues
– who to evacuate first?
– if you can only evacuate some during the threat phase?
• Feasibility
– self evacuating populations outside the region for evacuation may
impede evacuation of those more at risk
• Uncertainty: it may not be as bad as you think, but still bad
– how to deal with return of evacuees if the contamination level is
higher than around Chernobyl/Fukushima today?
• Uncertainty: what is the level of threat?

5. Decisions based on
Intervention Levels
Measure
of Dose
Above this level, relocation would be
advised and offered
Below this level, there would be little need to
do anything except reassure the population
In between these levels, many countermeasures
would be implemented to clean up the area and
protect the population
Observed

6. Uncertainty …
Unfortunately in the early
hours one may only have a
threat of a release and
uncertain forecasts of what
the dose to various
populations may be.
After the release, however
good the data, there will still
be uncertainty
Upper IL
Lower IL
Probability

7. More than one forecasting
model…
Upper IL
Lower IL

8. Thank You