Peru evaluationhydropowerpotential finalupdate

Eduardo Zolezzi
Eduardo ZolezziPower Engineer à Independent Consultant
Peru - Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Eduardo Zolezzi David Menéndez Arán
WB Consultant Halcrow
Washington DC, March 14, 2011
World Bank – Energy Week 2011
Sustainable Energy: Low Carbon, Access and Governance
Peru – The Long Path to Hydropower Development
1973: the “First” Evaluation of
Hydropower Potential (German
Technical Assistance)
2008, 2009: ESMAP Studies
Hydropower Development
Framework and Barriers
2011: New Evaluation of
Hydropower Potential (Peru
RE Project – WB Financing)
Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Contents
Context (Motivation)
Basic Data and Processing
Hydrological Modeling and Processing
Hydropower Potential
Best 100 Potential Small, Mid-Sized Hydro Plants
Products: Hydropower Atlas, Web HidroGIS
Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Context (Motivation)
World Hydropower Potential
South America Hydropower Potential
PERU
2nd in SA in Potential and
6th in the World
7th in SA in Inst. Capacity
The Challenge
PERU - Satellite
Digital Terrain
Model
Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Basic Data and Processing
Elevation (Topographic) Data
1:100,00 Maps of the National Geographic Institute SRTM (NASA) Satellite Digital Terrain Data
Digital Terrain Model (1)
Digital Terrain Model (2)
Precipitation Data
Basic Data: 457 original, plus 155
additional, recordings from
SENAMHI stations; TRMM
(NASA) data; and FAO Cleanwat
2.0 (2006).
Results: 472 consolidated/
processed recordings.
Temperature Data
Basic Data: 264 original, plus 70
additional, recordings from
SENAMHI stations; FAO Cleanwat
2.0 (2006); GHCN data (NOOA);
and RETScreen weather data.
Results: 265 consolidated/
processed recordings.
Stream Flow Data
Basic Data: 144 original, plus 58
additional, recordings from
SENAMHI stations; 279 original
recordings from ANA Peru and 30
recordings from ANA Brazil; and
14 recordings from INRENA Peru.
Results: 187 consolidated/
processed stream flow recordings
of more than 5 years duration, in
the period 1970-2010.
SENAMHI Basic Data Availability
Ene-70
Ene-72
Ene-74
Ene-76
Ene-78
Ene-80
Ene-82
Ene-84
Ene-86
Ene-88
Ene-90
Ene-92
Ene-94
Ene-96
Ene-98
Ene-00
Ene-02
Ene-04
Ene-06
Ene-08
Disponibilidad
de datos
Región 6
Precipitación, Caudal
y Temperatura
Precipitación
Caudal
Temperatura
Water Flow
Temperature
Precipitation
Region 6
Vegetation and Soil Type Data
Hydrographic Characteristics of Watersheds
Catchments
Delination Water Flow
Directions
Water Flow
Accumulations Processed
Hydrography
Physical Characteristics of Watersheds
Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Hydrological Modeling and Processing
Processing of Hydrology & Weather Data
20
10
0
Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70 Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70
20
10
0
Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70
20
10
0
Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70
PA MPA BLA NC A
Temperatura(°C)
C A RUMA S C A NDA RA V E C A BA NA C O NDE
C A MA NA EL FRA YLE PA UZA SA N C A MILO
PA MPA GA LERA S PUQ UIO BUENA V ISTA HUA RO C HIRI
Temperatura
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-06Jan-94Jan-82Jan-70
400
300
200
100
0
300
200
100
0
Jan-06Jan-94Jan-82Jan-70
300
200
100
0
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-06Jan-94Jan-82Jan-70
300
200
100
0
Curahuasi
Preicipitación(mm)
Chilcayoc Pisac
Acomayo Urubamba Granja Kcayra
Precipitación Enero
EDA
Time series analysis
Double mass analysis,
Regional accumulations
Analysis of seasonal and
inter-annual variations
Analysis of atypical values
Correlations analysis
Continuity analysis
Statistics (X, S, CV, CS)
Processing of Hydrological Data
Región 2: Caudal Medio Mensual
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago
Mes
Caudal(m3/s)
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
Caudal(m3/s)
Dique Los Espanoles
MARIA PEREZ (ANA2)
Salamanca
Aguada Blanca (ANA)
El Frayle (ANA)
Sumbay
Tingo Grande
Huatiapa
Negropampa (D)
PALLCA-HUARURO
(ANA2)
Puente Carretera Camana
Puente Colgante-Sibayo
Charcani
Region 2: Average Monthly Water Flow
Región 2: Curvas de permanencia
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
% de tiempo superado
Q%/Qa
Chucarapi
Huatiapa
MARIA PEREZ
Negropampa
PALLCA-HUARURO
Puente Carretera Camana
Puente Colgante-Sibayo
Salamanca
Aguada Blanca
Charcani
Sumbay
Tingo Grande
Promedio Region 2
Altura : 20-4500 msnm
Área: 60-17000 km
2
Region 2: Water Flow Duration Curves
Hydrological Regions
Hydrological (& Related) Processed Data
Average Annual Precipitation Specific Flow
Annual Evapo-Transpiration
Regression Formulae for Regional Hydrology
Qmedio = Average Water Flow
Area = Watershed Area
Pm = Average precipitation
Dd = Drainage surface density
S1085 = Slope index
With Most Significant Coefficients
Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Hydropower Potential
Qi
Qi+1
Hi
zi
TRAMO i
zi+1
i
i+1
Li (1)
Qi, Zi , Ai
Qi+1, Zi+1, Ai+1Nodo creado
automáticamente
Nodo Intermedio
Li (2)
Li (2.1)
Li (2.2)
Determination of Hydropower Potential (Theoretical)
If L < 5 km, then Li=L
If L > 5 km, then Li=L/2
i: Upstream node
i+1: Downstream node
Ai [km2
]: Drain area at node i
Zi [m]: Elevation of upstream node
Li: Length of river reach at node i
( )2/)( 1 iiiiiiTOTAL HQQHQgPPHT ⋅−+⋅⋅== +∑∑
Qi [m3
/s]: Water flow at node i
Qi+1 [m3
/s]: Water flow at node i+1
Hi [m]: Difference of elevation [Zi – Zi+1]
between nodes i and i+1
Theoretical Hydropower Potential
PTheoretical = 270,371 MW
PUseable = 170,009 MW
Theoretical Hydropower Potential
Determination of Hydropower Potential (Technical)
g: Gravity constant
η: Efficiency
Hi [m]: Difference of elevation [Zi – Zi+1]
between nodes i and i+1
Qi [m3
/s]: Water flow at node i
Penstock
Power House
Intake
Restitution
TecP g Hi Qiη= ⋅ ⋅ ⋅
Electromechanical Costs (Ce): f(PTec) [Water Power – 2009]
Penstock Costs (Cp): f(Qturb, Hi, LPenstock) [RETScreen – 2006]
Civil Works Costs (Cc): f (Qturb, PTec, Hi) [RETScreen – 2006]
Cost – Benefit Index (ICB)
TAC
ICB
E
=
3
10TA TecC C FRC P COM= ⋅ + ⋅ ⋅
24 365TecE P Fu= ⋅ ⋅ ⋅
E: Annual average generated energy
PTec: Technical hydropower potential
Fu: Utilization factor
24 x 365: Number of hours in a year
CTA: Annuity of total investment
C: Total investment amount
PTec: Technical hydropower potential
COM: O & M costs
FRC: Capital recuperation factor
i: interest rate
n: useful life
0.3716
40,7COM P−
= ⋅
( )
( )
1
1 1
n
n
i i
FRC
i
⋅ +
=
+ −
Determination of Technical Hydropower Potential
Determination of Technical Hydropower Potential
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
Costo/PINST[US$/KW]
PINST [MW]
Costo/PINST0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0
ICB[US$/MWh]
PINST [MW]
Costo/Beneficio (ICB)
CUR = 60 US$/MWh
Pmin
Technical & Economic Hydropower Potential
PTechnical = 114,816 MW
PTech. Useable = 69,445 MW
Technical & Economic Hydropower Potential
8350000
8400000
8450000
8500000
8550000
8600000
900000 950000 1000000 1050000 1100000 1150000
y
x
Potencial HidroeléctricoTécnico
0 MW < Ptécnico< 1 MW
1 MW <Ptécnico< 10 MW
10 MW <Ptécnico< 20 MW
20 MW <Ptécnico< 50 MW
50 MW <Ptécnico< 100 MW
Ptécnico> 100 MW
Technical Potential of Inambari Watershed
Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Best 100 Potential Small, Mid-Sized Hydro Plants
(1 < P < 100 MW)
Multi-Criteria for Merit Order
Multi-Criteria Matrix
Economic [ ]
Environmental [ ]
Other Criteria [ ]
Cost/Benefit Index (ICB) [wec1]
Net Present Value [wec2]
Internal Rate of Return [wec3]
Length of affected river reach [wen1]
Number of downstream tributaries [wen2]
Length of access roads [wen3]
Basic data availability [wo1]
Distance to existing electricity network [wo2]
Development of areas of interest [wo3]
ecP
enP
oP
Weight of Indexes in
First Scheme
= 0.8
wec1 = 1.0
= 0.2
wen1 = 0.6
wen2 = 0.4
ecP
enP Weight of Indexes in
Second Scheme
= 0.6 wen1 = 0.2
wec2 = 0.5 wen2 = 0.2
wec3 = 0.5 wen3 = 0.1
( + ) = 0.4
wo1 = 0.3 wo2 = 0.2
ecP
enP oP
(Sample of) Best 100 with Multi-Criteria
Location of Best 100 Potential Developments
1 MW < Pinst < 20 MW
Pinst > 20 MW
Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential
Products
Hydropower Potential Atlas
Web HidroGIS (1)
http://sigfoner.minem.gob.pe/hidro
Web HidroGIS (2)
How to Develop (Soundly) the Peruvian Amazon
Hydropower Potential?
River Inambari Watershed: Technical Useable Hydropower Potential: 8,870 MW
Thank You Very Much For Your Attention
2011: Centennial of the Discovery of Machu Picchu
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Peru evaluationhydropowerpotential finalupdate

  • 1. Peru - Evaluation of Hydropower Potential Eduardo Zolezzi David Menéndez Arán WB Consultant Halcrow Washington DC, March 14, 2011 World Bank – Energy Week 2011 Sustainable Energy: Low Carbon, Access and Governance
  • 2. Peru – The Long Path to Hydropower Development 1973: the “First” Evaluation of Hydropower Potential (German Technical Assistance) 2008, 2009: ESMAP Studies Hydropower Development Framework and Barriers 2011: New Evaluation of Hydropower Potential (Peru RE Project – WB Financing)
  • 3. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential Contents Context (Motivation) Basic Data and Processing Hydrological Modeling and Processing Hydropower Potential Best 100 Potential Small, Mid-Sized Hydro Plants Products: Hydropower Atlas, Web HidroGIS
  • 4. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential Context (Motivation)
  • 6. South America Hydropower Potential PERU 2nd in SA in Potential and 6th in the World 7th in SA in Inst. Capacity
  • 7. The Challenge PERU - Satellite Digital Terrain Model
  • 8. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential Basic Data and Processing
  • 9. Elevation (Topographic) Data 1:100,00 Maps of the National Geographic Institute SRTM (NASA) Satellite Digital Terrain Data
  • 12. Precipitation Data Basic Data: 457 original, plus 155 additional, recordings from SENAMHI stations; TRMM (NASA) data; and FAO Cleanwat 2.0 (2006). Results: 472 consolidated/ processed recordings.
  • 13. Temperature Data Basic Data: 264 original, plus 70 additional, recordings from SENAMHI stations; FAO Cleanwat 2.0 (2006); GHCN data (NOOA); and RETScreen weather data. Results: 265 consolidated/ processed recordings.
  • 14. Stream Flow Data Basic Data: 144 original, plus 58 additional, recordings from SENAMHI stations; 279 original recordings from ANA Peru and 30 recordings from ANA Brazil; and 14 recordings from INRENA Peru. Results: 187 consolidated/ processed stream flow recordings of more than 5 years duration, in the period 1970-2010.
  • 15. SENAMHI Basic Data Availability Ene-70 Ene-72 Ene-74 Ene-76 Ene-78 Ene-80 Ene-82 Ene-84 Ene-86 Ene-88 Ene-90 Ene-92 Ene-94 Ene-96 Ene-98 Ene-00 Ene-02 Ene-04 Ene-06 Ene-08 Disponibilidad de datos Región 6 Precipitación, Caudal y Temperatura Precipitación Caudal Temperatura Water Flow Temperature Precipitation Region 6
  • 16. Vegetation and Soil Type Data
  • 17. Hydrographic Characteristics of Watersheds Catchments Delination Water Flow Directions Water Flow Accumulations Processed Hydrography
  • 19. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential Hydrological Modeling and Processing
  • 20. Processing of Hydrology & Weather Data 20 10 0 Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70 Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70 20 10 0 Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70 20 10 0 Jan-10Jan-00Jan-90Jan-80Jan-70 PA MPA BLA NC A Temperatura(°C) C A RUMA S C A NDA RA V E C A BA NA C O NDE C A MA NA EL FRA YLE PA UZA SA N C A MILO PA MPA GA LERA S PUQ UIO BUENA V ISTA HUA RO C HIRI Temperatura 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-06Jan-94Jan-82Jan-70 400 300 200 100 0 300 200 100 0 Jan-06Jan-94Jan-82Jan-70 300 200 100 0 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-06Jan-94Jan-82Jan-70 300 200 100 0 Curahuasi Preicipitación(mm) Chilcayoc Pisac Acomayo Urubamba Granja Kcayra Precipitación Enero EDA Time series analysis Double mass analysis, Regional accumulations Analysis of seasonal and inter-annual variations Analysis of atypical values Correlations analysis Continuity analysis Statistics (X, S, CV, CS)
  • 21. Processing of Hydrological Data Región 2: Caudal Medio Mensual 0 5 10 15 20 25 Sep Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Mes Caudal(m3/s) 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 Caudal(m3/s) Dique Los Espanoles MARIA PEREZ (ANA2) Salamanca Aguada Blanca (ANA) El Frayle (ANA) Sumbay Tingo Grande Huatiapa Negropampa (D) PALLCA-HUARURO (ANA2) Puente Carretera Camana Puente Colgante-Sibayo Charcani Region 2: Average Monthly Water Flow Región 2: Curvas de permanencia 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % de tiempo superado Q%/Qa Chucarapi Huatiapa MARIA PEREZ Negropampa PALLCA-HUARURO Puente Carretera Camana Puente Colgante-Sibayo Salamanca Aguada Blanca Charcani Sumbay Tingo Grande Promedio Region 2 Altura : 20-4500 msnm Área: 60-17000 km 2 Region 2: Water Flow Duration Curves Hydrological Regions
  • 22. Hydrological (& Related) Processed Data Average Annual Precipitation Specific Flow Annual Evapo-Transpiration
  • 23. Regression Formulae for Regional Hydrology Qmedio = Average Water Flow Area = Watershed Area Pm = Average precipitation Dd = Drainage surface density S1085 = Slope index With Most Significant Coefficients
  • 24. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential Hydropower Potential
  • 25. Qi Qi+1 Hi zi TRAMO i zi+1 i i+1 Li (1) Qi, Zi , Ai Qi+1, Zi+1, Ai+1Nodo creado automáticamente Nodo Intermedio Li (2) Li (2.1) Li (2.2) Determination of Hydropower Potential (Theoretical) If L < 5 km, then Li=L If L > 5 km, then Li=L/2 i: Upstream node i+1: Downstream node Ai [km2 ]: Drain area at node i Zi [m]: Elevation of upstream node Li: Length of river reach at node i ( )2/)( 1 iiiiiiTOTAL HQQHQgPPHT ⋅−+⋅⋅== +∑∑ Qi [m3 /s]: Water flow at node i Qi+1 [m3 /s]: Water flow at node i+1 Hi [m]: Difference of elevation [Zi – Zi+1] between nodes i and i+1
  • 26. Theoretical Hydropower Potential PTheoretical = 270,371 MW PUseable = 170,009 MW
  • 28. Determination of Hydropower Potential (Technical) g: Gravity constant η: Efficiency Hi [m]: Difference of elevation [Zi – Zi+1] between nodes i and i+1 Qi [m3 /s]: Water flow at node i Penstock Power House Intake Restitution TecP g Hi Qiη= ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ Electromechanical Costs (Ce): f(PTec) [Water Power – 2009] Penstock Costs (Cp): f(Qturb, Hi, LPenstock) [RETScreen – 2006] Civil Works Costs (Cc): f (Qturb, PTec, Hi) [RETScreen – 2006]
  • 29. Cost – Benefit Index (ICB) TAC ICB E = 3 10TA TecC C FRC P COM= ⋅ + ⋅ ⋅ 24 365TecE P Fu= ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ E: Annual average generated energy PTec: Technical hydropower potential Fu: Utilization factor 24 x 365: Number of hours in a year CTA: Annuity of total investment C: Total investment amount PTec: Technical hydropower potential COM: O & M costs FRC: Capital recuperation factor i: interest rate n: useful life 0.3716 40,7COM P− = ⋅ ( ) ( ) 1 1 1 n n i i FRC i ⋅ + = + −
  • 30. Determination of Technical Hydropower Potential
  • 31. Determination of Technical Hydropower Potential 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 Costo/PINST[US$/KW] PINST [MW] Costo/PINST0 20 40 60 80 100 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 ICB[US$/MWh] PINST [MW] Costo/Beneficio (ICB) CUR = 60 US$/MWh Pmin
  • 32. Technical & Economic Hydropower Potential PTechnical = 114,816 MW PTech. Useable = 69,445 MW
  • 33. Technical & Economic Hydropower Potential
  • 34. 8350000 8400000 8450000 8500000 8550000 8600000 900000 950000 1000000 1050000 1100000 1150000 y x Potencial HidroeléctricoTécnico 0 MW < Ptécnico< 1 MW 1 MW <Ptécnico< 10 MW 10 MW <Ptécnico< 20 MW 20 MW <Ptécnico< 50 MW 50 MW <Ptécnico< 100 MW Ptécnico> 100 MW Technical Potential of Inambari Watershed
  • 35. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential Best 100 Potential Small, Mid-Sized Hydro Plants (1 < P < 100 MW)
  • 36. Multi-Criteria for Merit Order Multi-Criteria Matrix Economic [ ] Environmental [ ] Other Criteria [ ] Cost/Benefit Index (ICB) [wec1] Net Present Value [wec2] Internal Rate of Return [wec3] Length of affected river reach [wen1] Number of downstream tributaries [wen2] Length of access roads [wen3] Basic data availability [wo1] Distance to existing electricity network [wo2] Development of areas of interest [wo3] ecP enP oP Weight of Indexes in First Scheme = 0.8 wec1 = 1.0 = 0.2 wen1 = 0.6 wen2 = 0.4 ecP enP Weight of Indexes in Second Scheme = 0.6 wen1 = 0.2 wec2 = 0.5 wen2 = 0.2 wec3 = 0.5 wen3 = 0.1 ( + ) = 0.4 wo1 = 0.3 wo2 = 0.2 ecP enP oP
  • 37. (Sample of) Best 100 with Multi-Criteria
  • 38. Location of Best 100 Potential Developments 1 MW < Pinst < 20 MW Pinst > 20 MW
  • 39. Peru – Evaluation of Hydropower Potential Products
  • 43. How to Develop (Soundly) the Peruvian Amazon Hydropower Potential? River Inambari Watershed: Technical Useable Hydropower Potential: 8,870 MW
  • 44. Thank You Very Much For Your Attention 2011: Centennial of the Discovery of Machu Picchu