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The new retail:
apocalypse
or new era?
On one hand,
This is
the retail
apocalypse
2
3
Never have
so many
stores
opened
,On the
other,,
4
In the US,
physical store
openings in 2018
actually grew
by more than 50%
year over year
For every retail company closing,
five are opening stores
Source: National Retail Association (NRA)
5
5Y Growth +37%
ROE 13%
PER 19,7%
Retail is witnessing an ‘extremization’ of its cohorts
+81%
13%
26
Price
Deliver value by selling
at the lowest possible
prices, ‘off-price’,
clearly communicate
that message to their
consumers
5Y Growth +37%
ROE 13%
PER 19,7
Balanced
Deliver value through
a combination of price
and promotion, and many
offer widely available
products or experiences
+2%
9,4%
12,7
Source: Deloitte Insights, great retail bifurcation
Premium
Deliver value by
premier or highly
differentiated product
or experience offerings
6
Net store openings and closings
109%
Price Balanced
-108,1%
Premium
+108,8% +263,8%
Source: Deloitte Insights, great retail bifurcation
7
Stores,
That are closing
● Decreased foot
traffic in large
format suburban
stores
● Lack of
omni-channel
strategy: online &
offline need to be
complementary
● Brands need to
relocate in the
city-center
FranceUSA
8
Stores,
That are opening
Discount chains ● DNVBs set to
open 850 stores
in 5 years
● Strong
price-based
positioning of
Discount chains
● Both player are
customer-centric
and experience
enthusiasts
DNVBs
Source: Retail Dive & JLL Research
9
What is
happening?
10
First, economics
The US economy
is booming
- but only profits
the top 20%
Over the past 5 years, the lower80% in the income distributionhave actually seen their incomestagnate or even shrink,with discretionary expensesconsiderably increasing:
healthcare +62%
education +41%
food +17%
and housing +12%
Source: Deloitte Insights, great retail bifurcation
11
How does that matter to retail?
Low-income choose physical,
high-income choose digital
60% of low-income show propensity to
shop in a physical store, while just over
half of high-income consumers (52%)
skew towards buying online (and this is
cross-generational)
Different incomes, different channels and preferences
For those who have seen their
income shrink, it’s all about the
price
Low-income consumers are 44% more
likely to shop at discount retailers,
supermarkets, convenience stores and
department stores - regardless of their
age
≠ income,
≠ channels
& preferences
How does that matter to retail?
$
$$$
Price
Experience
Physical
store
Low-income choose physical,
high-income choose digital
60% of low-income show propensity to shop
in a physical store, while just over half of
high-income consumers (52%) skew towards
buying online (and this is cross-generational)
For those who have seen their
income shrink, it’s all about price
Low-income consumers are 44% more likely
to shop at discount retailers, supermarkets,
convenience stores and department stores
- regardless of their age
Online
store
Source: Deloitte Insights, great retail bifurcation
12
Second,
The emergence
of a new retail model;
1. People Centered
2. Personal
3. Emotional
4. Harmonised
Term ‘harmonized retail’ first introduced by Steve Dennis,
Omnichannel is Dead. The Future is Harmonized retail
13
Second,
The emergence
of a new retail model;
..embodied
by the
DNVBs
14
..embodied
by the
DNVBs
Second,
The emergence
of a new retail model;
15
So who
are they?
16
Text
The name
says it all
17
Digitally Native
A cosmetics tech company
Tech staff
40% of Glossier staff are tech profiles
Own tech solutions
Warby Parker’s proprietary algorithm to perfectly place
virtual frames on the user’s face
Data at the core of operations
Casper tracks user data at each touch-point and
constantly runs A/B testing to test new ideas and
solutions
18
2 days ,
Vertical
A single line of products
Something as simple as flowers
Control over the supply chain
Traditional market:
4 to 5 intermediaries taking
10% to 20% fees each
Producer Consumer
7 days
,
Producer Consumer
Source: Bergamotte’s podcast & interview
19
“Brand”
is at the
core of their
business.
Through
storytelling,
community and
user-centricity
2.4M
followers on
Instagram
__
Channel slack with
top 100 customers
for co-construction
__
“70% of online
sales & traffic come
from peer-to
-peer referrals”
Emilie Weiss,
CEO & founder
Source: Recode Decode (Jan 2019), interview of Glossier CEO Emily Weiss
20
Brands
that master
instagram
and influencer
networks
like none
other
Fenty Beauty
8.7M followers
880k website
;visits per month
Kylie cosmetics
22.5M followers
Kylie Jenner
150M followers
1.1M website
visits per month
70% of Revolve’s
sales come from
influencers
21
👼👼
22
“We are going to shut
the company down before
we go to physical retail.”
Michael Preysmann,
Everlane CEO.
Text
2012
23
.. but as they grow, they move offline
Today,
1700+ stores are operated by DNVBs in the US
2018 20152017
2010 20132010
Source: Kevin Campos, a principal at Venture Capital firm Fifth Wall, and Thinknum Alternative Data, Forbes
24
“Everlane needed to open stores because
‘basically’ no online-only companies are profitable
Michael Preysmann, Everlane CEO.
2019
25
Value Creation
● Goods & services
● Production methods
● Markets
● Raw material sources
● Methods of organisation
● CLV > CAC
● Barriers to entry
● Market size
● Scalable operational model
Value Retention
Text
Product
Customer Experience
Emotion
Convenience
Value Creation
and and
Creating value,
Retaining value
J.Schumpeter, Theory of Creative Destruction
26
Going beyond the first core community: the limit of digital
Core
?
CAC is exploding
Facebook & Google are becoming the new middleman.
Facebook Ad costs have increased 17x over 2011 & 2018
90% of sales still happen offline
Online sales over the next five years are estimated to
grow 11.7% annually vs 1.7%. Yet, event so, in 5 years time,
offline will still make more than 80% of all sales.
Competition arrives fast,
it’s hard to differentiate
At the time of Casper’s launch (2014), there were
no mattress-in-a-box services. Today, there are 175.
27
Text
Offline, the new lever to boost sales... online
Source: ICSC
Halo effect
The opening of a bricks-and-mortar store leads
to a 37% spike in web traffic for that company
$100 spent offline
$131 additional
spent offline
$167 additional spent online
$100 spent
online
(within store
catchment)
28
It's not,
as usual
retail
29
Text
DNVBs are redefining the physical retail’s role
Traditional retail store
A Check-out:
A point of sales for the brand
Product
Sell what at store’s stock
KPIs of a store: sales, traffic, conversion
Purchase experience
No unicity
DNVB retail store
A Check-in:
A customer acquisition levier
Customer
Zero-to-no stock, with delivery
KPIs: NPS, number of posts, number of visits
Brand experience
Exclusivity, unicity
Vs
Text
DNVBs are redefining the role of physical retail
Traditional retail store
Check-out:
A point of sales for the brand
Product
Sell what’s at store’s stock
Purchase experience
KPIs: on sales
DNVB retail store
Check-in:
A lever for customer acquisition
Customer
Zero-to-no stock, with delivery
Brand experience
KPIs: on experience & impressions
VS
30
Text
DNVBs are redefining the physical retail’s role
Text
DNVBs target locations to be exactly where their targets are
Tediber, no-stock store
in the core of the Marais.
The brand can get a 60m2
store in the center of the
city instead of a 200m2 one
in the suburbs like the
usual furniture stores.
A touch and feel store
Visible by everyone in the
street, not only instagram
followers
31
Text
DNVBs are redefining the physical retail’s role
Text
From product purchase to a brand experience
Sézane, the store as
a branding media
After the Apartments, Sézane
launched Libre Service in
Batignolles neighborhood
“We want people to come
to spend a moment with us”
Morgane Sézalory
Tables, multiple brands
magnifying Sézane products,
a vintage corner, upcycling
and repairs corner, tea & coffee
available.
32
Text
From salesperson to live community manager
Marionnaud
Sales Assistant job offer
Sézane
Sales Assistant job offer
33
The new KPIs for the physical store
Text
Conversion rate
Footfall
Sales in the store area (both online & offline)
Posts social networks
Halo effect
(average basket online after an offline
purchase for an identified customer
and vice versa)
Sales-in-store
Net promoter score
Average basket
34
What is,
traditional
retailers
left for
35
Build, buy or partner, traditional strategies applied to DNVBs
1. Create
#Build #Partner
Build it yourself
Build it from your
partner community
2. Buy & grow
#Buy
Buy, do not absorb
but support growth
3.
Adapt
#Buy #Build
Buy it, learn from
it and then adapt
the model you target
with your own rules
36
Text
Create1
#Build #Partner
37
The Build strategy
Traditional players are launching their own DNVBs, with mixed results.
2018
Be prepared to CAC growth
Strong launch, Ontex reduced
marketing investment ?
Lillydoo
420k website visits/month
Little Big Change
52k visits/month
2017
Know what you're good at
The best social media launch
30M$ invested
50,1% shareholder
Turnover 570M in 2019
10% engagement rate
2017
Don’t do things by half
Poor delivery experience,
no marketing strategy
Dollar Shave Club
2.5M visits/month
Bic Shave Club
21k visits/month
Different results...
38
Text
2 Buy
& grow
#Buy
39
Buy
Shiseido acquired Drunk
Elephant for $845M in October
2019, a fast way for the group
to access a more premium target
on a new market (clean beauty)
through a brand that already
masters digital codes.
But it is expensive...
Drunk Elephant expected
revenue in 2019: $100M
8-9x multiple deal
Source: Bloomberg
40
The Shiseido Strategy: acquisition
of Drunk Elephant
Strong international footprint
(even more in Asia)//
Know-how of physical retail
operations
Performing best on premium
brands Yoy sales growth of 16%
(compared to 12% of cosmetics
and personal care)
//
Not performing well in Americas /
and EMEA
operating margins -8.7% and -6.4%
//
Not enough online sales
16,4% of sales
Slow internationalization
Willing to strengthen in Asia//
Low physical retail presence
Only through Sephora//
Premium clean beauty
positioning
Strong presence in the US
ebitda margins between 20% and 30%
, //
Know-how of online sales models
Strong growth x4 sales between 2016 and
2019, $100bn revenue expected in 2019
$845M
deal,
Enter the clean
beauty market
with a premium
high growth
brand while
offering an
international
offline footprint
Source: Bloomberg
41
Text
3 Adapt
#Build #Buy
42
Acquired in
2016 $3bn
2017 $310M
$50M
2018 $100M
Buy then build:
The Walmart
strategy In 2019 : $1bn lost by
e-commerce division
Sell;
Modcloth Oct 2019
Slow down;
Bonobos:
● staff reduction 2019
● online sales decreased
by 12% following
acquisition
43
Text
Then Walmart changed its strategy
In 2018, Walmart launched
Allswell, a Casper-like company,
distributed in Walmart stores and
website and for Walmart’s current
customers.
And it seems to work…
Then Walmart changed its strategy
In 2018, Walmart launched Allswell,
a Casper-like company, distributed
in Walmart stores and website
and for Walmart’s current customers.
“I feel like our job is to develop
direct to consumer brands that are
purpose-driven that serve the widest
possible group that we can.”
Andy Dunn
Founder of Bonobos
Senior VP of digital consumer
brands
44
The face;of,
,new;retail?;
So what
really is...
45
In 2010, there were 32 equity deals
in the direct-to-consumer retail space.
;By 2017, the annual deal count rose up to 196
;deals. Last year, there were 173 deals, and there
;were 104 this year through August.
With so many brands advertising on the same
channels, attempting to reach the same
customers, costs quickly began to rise.
More money more problems…
“Many brands have found themselves
trapped in the vortex of venture capital,
where the more money a company raises,
the more money it needs to raise.”
Alex Song
CEO of the Innovation Department
Former PE Associate Goldman Sachs
46
is learning
from its
predecessors’
problems.
,A new,
,generation
,of,digital,
,companies,
47
“The expertise of retailers is necessary for consumers, especially
in the performance category, we have 5,000 doors which means
that if 20 people per day in each store touch our products,
that’s 100,000 contacts.
Comparing that to digital acquisition, if you’re paying for
100,000 click throughs and it costs $3 per click through — that’s
$300,000 per day.”
David Alleman, CEO On Running.
48
Text
A future of an abundance of brands.. or re-aggregation?
October 2019
French DNVBs create an association to
better collaboration between them
October 2019
URW experiences a new
concept at Carrousel du
Louvres with several DNVB
49
…Get;
in touch!;Contacts
Mehdi.dziri
@fabernovel.com
Elina.gaillard
@fabernovel.com
Camille
@eutopia.vc
Client_office
@fabernovel.com
Mehdi.dziri
@fabernovel.com
Elina.Gaillard
@fabernovel.com
50
The new retail: apocalypse or new era?

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The new retail: apocalypse or new era?

  • 2. On one hand, This is the retail apocalypse 2
  • 3. 3
  • 5. In the US, physical store openings in 2018 actually grew by more than 50% year over year For every retail company closing, five are opening stores Source: National Retail Association (NRA) 5
  • 6. 5Y Growth +37% ROE 13% PER 19,7% Retail is witnessing an ‘extremization’ of its cohorts +81% 13% 26 Price Deliver value by selling at the lowest possible prices, ‘off-price’, clearly communicate that message to their consumers 5Y Growth +37% ROE 13% PER 19,7 Balanced Deliver value through a combination of price and promotion, and many offer widely available products or experiences +2% 9,4% 12,7 Source: Deloitte Insights, great retail bifurcation Premium Deliver value by premier or highly differentiated product or experience offerings 6
  • 7. Net store openings and closings 109% Price Balanced -108,1% Premium +108,8% +263,8% Source: Deloitte Insights, great retail bifurcation 7
  • 8. Stores, That are closing ● Decreased foot traffic in large format suburban stores ● Lack of omni-channel strategy: online & offline need to be complementary ● Brands need to relocate in the city-center FranceUSA 8
  • 9. Stores, That are opening Discount chains ● DNVBs set to open 850 stores in 5 years ● Strong price-based positioning of Discount chains ● Both player are customer-centric and experience enthusiasts DNVBs Source: Retail Dive & JLL Research 9
  • 11. First, economics The US economy is booming - but only profits the top 20% Over the past 5 years, the lower80% in the income distributionhave actually seen their incomestagnate or even shrink,with discretionary expensesconsiderably increasing: healthcare +62% education +41% food +17% and housing +12% Source: Deloitte Insights, great retail bifurcation 11
  • 12. How does that matter to retail? Low-income choose physical, high-income choose digital 60% of low-income show propensity to shop in a physical store, while just over half of high-income consumers (52%) skew towards buying online (and this is cross-generational) Different incomes, different channels and preferences For those who have seen their income shrink, it’s all about the price Low-income consumers are 44% more likely to shop at discount retailers, supermarkets, convenience stores and department stores - regardless of their age ≠ income, ≠ channels & preferences How does that matter to retail? $ $$$ Price Experience Physical store Low-income choose physical, high-income choose digital 60% of low-income show propensity to shop in a physical store, while just over half of high-income consumers (52%) skew towards buying online (and this is cross-generational) For those who have seen their income shrink, it’s all about price Low-income consumers are 44% more likely to shop at discount retailers, supermarkets, convenience stores and department stores - regardless of their age Online store Source: Deloitte Insights, great retail bifurcation 12
  • 13. Second, The emergence of a new retail model; 1. People Centered 2. Personal 3. Emotional 4. Harmonised Term ‘harmonized retail’ first introduced by Steve Dennis, Omnichannel is Dead. The Future is Harmonized retail 13
  • 14. Second, The emergence of a new retail model; ..embodied by the DNVBs 14
  • 18. Digitally Native A cosmetics tech company Tech staff 40% of Glossier staff are tech profiles Own tech solutions Warby Parker’s proprietary algorithm to perfectly place virtual frames on the user’s face Data at the core of operations Casper tracks user data at each touch-point and constantly runs A/B testing to test new ideas and solutions 18
  • 19. 2 days , Vertical A single line of products Something as simple as flowers Control over the supply chain Traditional market: 4 to 5 intermediaries taking 10% to 20% fees each Producer Consumer 7 days , Producer Consumer Source: Bergamotte’s podcast & interview 19
  • 20. “Brand” is at the core of their business. Through storytelling, community and user-centricity 2.4M followers on Instagram __ Channel slack with top 100 customers for co-construction __ “70% of online sales & traffic come from peer-to -peer referrals” Emilie Weiss, CEO & founder Source: Recode Decode (Jan 2019), interview of Glossier CEO Emily Weiss 20
  • 21. Brands that master instagram and influencer networks like none other Fenty Beauty 8.7M followers 880k website ;visits per month Kylie cosmetics 22.5M followers Kylie Jenner 150M followers 1.1M website visits per month 70% of Revolve’s sales come from influencers 21
  • 23. “We are going to shut the company down before we go to physical retail.” Michael Preysmann, Everlane CEO. Text 2012 23
  • 24. .. but as they grow, they move offline Today, 1700+ stores are operated by DNVBs in the US 2018 20152017 2010 20132010 Source: Kevin Campos, a principal at Venture Capital firm Fifth Wall, and Thinknum Alternative Data, Forbes 24
  • 25. “Everlane needed to open stores because ‘basically’ no online-only companies are profitable Michael Preysmann, Everlane CEO. 2019 25
  • 26. Value Creation ● Goods & services ● Production methods ● Markets ● Raw material sources ● Methods of organisation ● CLV > CAC ● Barriers to entry ● Market size ● Scalable operational model Value Retention Text Product Customer Experience Emotion Convenience Value Creation and and Creating value, Retaining value J.Schumpeter, Theory of Creative Destruction 26
  • 27. Going beyond the first core community: the limit of digital Core ? CAC is exploding Facebook & Google are becoming the new middleman. Facebook Ad costs have increased 17x over 2011 & 2018 90% of sales still happen offline Online sales over the next five years are estimated to grow 11.7% annually vs 1.7%. Yet, event so, in 5 years time, offline will still make more than 80% of all sales. Competition arrives fast, it’s hard to differentiate At the time of Casper’s launch (2014), there were no mattress-in-a-box services. Today, there are 175. 27
  • 28. Text Offline, the new lever to boost sales... online Source: ICSC Halo effect The opening of a bricks-and-mortar store leads to a 37% spike in web traffic for that company $100 spent offline $131 additional spent offline $167 additional spent online $100 spent online (within store catchment) 28
  • 30. Text DNVBs are redefining the physical retail’s role Traditional retail store A Check-out: A point of sales for the brand Product Sell what at store’s stock KPIs of a store: sales, traffic, conversion Purchase experience No unicity DNVB retail store A Check-in: A customer acquisition levier Customer Zero-to-no stock, with delivery KPIs: NPS, number of posts, number of visits Brand experience Exclusivity, unicity Vs Text DNVBs are redefining the role of physical retail Traditional retail store Check-out: A point of sales for the brand Product Sell what’s at store’s stock Purchase experience KPIs: on sales DNVB retail store Check-in: A lever for customer acquisition Customer Zero-to-no stock, with delivery Brand experience KPIs: on experience & impressions VS 30
  • 31. Text DNVBs are redefining the physical retail’s role Text DNVBs target locations to be exactly where their targets are Tediber, no-stock store in the core of the Marais. The brand can get a 60m2 store in the center of the city instead of a 200m2 one in the suburbs like the usual furniture stores. A touch and feel store Visible by everyone in the street, not only instagram followers 31
  • 32. Text DNVBs are redefining the physical retail’s role Text From product purchase to a brand experience Sézane, the store as a branding media After the Apartments, Sézane launched Libre Service in Batignolles neighborhood “We want people to come to spend a moment with us” Morgane Sézalory Tables, multiple brands magnifying Sézane products, a vintage corner, upcycling and repairs corner, tea & coffee available. 32
  • 33. Text From salesperson to live community manager Marionnaud Sales Assistant job offer Sézane Sales Assistant job offer 33
  • 34. The new KPIs for the physical store Text Conversion rate Footfall Sales in the store area (both online & offline) Posts social networks Halo effect (average basket online after an offline purchase for an identified customer and vice versa) Sales-in-store Net promoter score Average basket 34
  • 36. Build, buy or partner, traditional strategies applied to DNVBs 1. Create #Build #Partner Build it yourself Build it from your partner community 2. Buy & grow #Buy Buy, do not absorb but support growth 3. Adapt #Buy #Build Buy it, learn from it and then adapt the model you target with your own rules 36
  • 38. The Build strategy Traditional players are launching their own DNVBs, with mixed results. 2018 Be prepared to CAC growth Strong launch, Ontex reduced marketing investment ? Lillydoo 420k website visits/month Little Big Change 52k visits/month 2017 Know what you're good at The best social media launch 30M$ invested 50,1% shareholder Turnover 570M in 2019 10% engagement rate 2017 Don’t do things by half Poor delivery experience, no marketing strategy Dollar Shave Club 2.5M visits/month Bic Shave Club 21k visits/month Different results... 38
  • 40. Buy Shiseido acquired Drunk Elephant for $845M in October 2019, a fast way for the group to access a more premium target on a new market (clean beauty) through a brand that already masters digital codes. But it is expensive... Drunk Elephant expected revenue in 2019: $100M 8-9x multiple deal Source: Bloomberg 40
  • 41. The Shiseido Strategy: acquisition of Drunk Elephant Strong international footprint (even more in Asia)// Know-how of physical retail operations Performing best on premium brands Yoy sales growth of 16% (compared to 12% of cosmetics and personal care) // Not performing well in Americas / and EMEA operating margins -8.7% and -6.4% // Not enough online sales 16,4% of sales Slow internationalization Willing to strengthen in Asia// Low physical retail presence Only through Sephora// Premium clean beauty positioning Strong presence in the US ebitda margins between 20% and 30% , // Know-how of online sales models Strong growth x4 sales between 2016 and 2019, $100bn revenue expected in 2019 $845M deal, Enter the clean beauty market with a premium high growth brand while offering an international offline footprint Source: Bloomberg 41
  • 43. Acquired in 2016 $3bn 2017 $310M $50M 2018 $100M Buy then build: The Walmart strategy In 2019 : $1bn lost by e-commerce division Sell; Modcloth Oct 2019 Slow down; Bonobos: ● staff reduction 2019 ● online sales decreased by 12% following acquisition 43
  • 44. Text Then Walmart changed its strategy In 2018, Walmart launched Allswell, a Casper-like company, distributed in Walmart stores and website and for Walmart’s current customers. And it seems to work… Then Walmart changed its strategy In 2018, Walmart launched Allswell, a Casper-like company, distributed in Walmart stores and website and for Walmart’s current customers. “I feel like our job is to develop direct to consumer brands that are purpose-driven that serve the widest possible group that we can.” Andy Dunn Founder of Bonobos Senior VP of digital consumer brands 44
  • 46. In 2010, there were 32 equity deals in the direct-to-consumer retail space. ;By 2017, the annual deal count rose up to 196 ;deals. Last year, there were 173 deals, and there ;were 104 this year through August. With so many brands advertising on the same channels, attempting to reach the same customers, costs quickly began to rise. More money more problems… “Many brands have found themselves trapped in the vortex of venture capital, where the more money a company raises, the more money it needs to raise.” Alex Song CEO of the Innovation Department Former PE Associate Goldman Sachs 46
  • 47. is learning from its predecessors’ problems. ,A new, ,generation ,of,digital, ,companies, 47
  • 48. “The expertise of retailers is necessary for consumers, especially in the performance category, we have 5,000 doors which means that if 20 people per day in each store touch our products, that’s 100,000 contacts. Comparing that to digital acquisition, if you’re paying for 100,000 click throughs and it costs $3 per click through — that’s $300,000 per day.” David Alleman, CEO On Running. 48
  • 49. Text A future of an abundance of brands.. or re-aggregation? October 2019 French DNVBs create an association to better collaboration between them October 2019 URW experiences a new concept at Carrousel du Louvres with several DNVB 49