This article aims to demonstrate the decline of oil as the main source of energy in the world which should take place by the need to deploy globally sustainable energy system to promote the drastic reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in order to avoid catastrophic climate change overall, the failure of the oil supply to meet world demand and competition of a replacement product, the shale gas. After the twilight of oil will enter a new era with the widespread use of renewable energy sources (hydro, solar, wind, hydrogen, tidal, etc.).

1. 1
OIL TWILIGHT AS AN ENERGY SOURCE
Fernando Alcoforado1
Abstract- This article aims to demonstrate the decline of oil as the main source of energy in the world
which should take place by the need to deploy globally sustainable energy system to promote the drastic
reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in order to avoid catastrophic climate
change overall, the failure of the oil supply to meet world demand and competition of a replacement
product, the shale gas. After the twilight of oil will enter a new era with the widespread use of renewable
energy sources (hydro, solar, wind, hydrogen, tidal, etc.).
Keywords: The oil in the global energy matrix. Oil and catastrophic climate change. The use of oil in a
sustainable energy system. The substitutes of oil and derivatives. The shale gas as oil fuel substitute.
Sustainable energy system.
1. The irreversible decline of the oil supply worldwide
There are numerous theories about the origin of oil, but the most accepted is that it came
about through organic animal remains and vegetables deposited on the bottom of lakes
and seas suffering chemical changes over thousands of years. Oil is a flammable
substance that has physical and less dense than water. The first discovery of oil, with
business impact, occurred in the United States in 1858. The oil changed world history
and the lifestyle in societies. Countries with more oil wells are located in the Middle
East, and, in turn, are the largest exporters. The United States, Russia, Iran, Saudi
Arabia, Venezuela, Kuwait, Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Canada, Kazakhstan, China and
United Arab Emirates are considered the world's largest producers.
In addition to generating gasoline, which serves as fuel for most vehicles circulating in
the world, various petroleum products are, for example, paraffin, natural gas, LPG,
asphalt products, naphtha, kerosene, solvents, oil fuel, lubricating oils, diesel and jet
fuel. In the late nineteenth century with the invention of the automobile internal
combustion engine, oil has become a major source of energy in the world. Energy
resources have generated geopolitical disputes since the first Industrial Revolution. In
the second half of the twentieth century, with the expansion of urban-industrial
environment and hence population growth, there has been an exponential increase in
energy demand.
1
Fernando Alcoforado , member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011)
and Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012),
among others.

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The main feature of the energy matrix since the Second Industrial Revolution is oil
followed by coal and natural gas. Despite the investment in alternative energy sources -
solar, wind, geothermal, keep fossil fuels as the main way of obtaining energy
worldwide. Because it is a product with high risk of contamination, oil causes serious
damage to the environment because of emission of greenhouse gases and affect the
environment when it comes into contact with the waters of oceans and seas or the soil
surface . Several environmental accidents involving oil spill (either platforms or cargo
ships) have occurred in recent decades. When it occurs in the ocean, the environmental
consequences are drastic because it affects the coastal ecosystems, causing lots of
deaths among fish and other marine animals.
Industrialization during the twentieth century is marked by the rise of oil as the most
important source of primary energy, and their derivatives as the most essential fuels to
transport and thermoelectric production (gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and kerosene) and
essential raw materials for the petrochemical (the "naphtha", the BTX and various
chemicals). However, accumulates evidence that oil production capacity "conventional"
is reaching its limits. Conventional oil is one of the affluent world has been using since
the beginning of the twentieth century and in the 1960s surpassed coal as the main
source of energy. Conventional oil is relatively affordable and economical extraction
such as the giant deposits of Saudi Arabia to an order price of US$1 or US$ 2 per barrel.
The liquid hydrocarbon fraction accompanying the natural gas extraction can be
recorded and added will conventional oil production. This source of hydrocarbons that
will increase by 2050 as a result of the production of natural gas exceeds that period the
oil, reducing the decline in conventional oil production, not noticeably postpone the
time of occurrence of the "peak" of liquid hydrocarbon production..
More problematic situation is still the oil shale. Unconventional oil resources are
comparable to those of conventional oil, but the convertible fraction exploitable reserves
amounts in the optimistic scenario, to no more than 20% of these resources and the
technical costs, substantially higher economic and environmental costs than
conventional oil. The pace of new oil fields discovery has diminished and the large
deposits will scarce. Globally, the rate of consumption has surpassed and has exceeded,
since 1981 the discoveries of new oil provinces. The peak of discovery worldwide
occurred in 1964. As the pace of discoveries failed to offset the rate of consumption, the
balance is negative, and the remaining reserves have declined persistently. The "reserve
growth", ie the revaluation for high reserves of known oil provinces has decreased as
well, and will be in lower future than in the past. After a century of exploration
worldwide, and scientific and technological improvements in geophysics and petroleum
engineering, it is known today virtually almost everything about this matter, and
particularly it is known that resources exist and what are its limits.
The Gulf region has the largest fraction of existing oil reserves. OPEC, which currently
ensures a nearby fraction of 40% of world trade, will have an increasing weight in
supply and price formation. Russia and the Caspian basin holds 15% of world reserves
of conventional oil. Russia over the Caspian basin provided in 2001 11% of world
production of conventional oil. This production may increase further 50% over the next
years and may then account for 15% of world production. As for Western Europe, the
oil province of the North Sea has already exceeded its maximum production and
declined. Discovery that province of the North Sea in 1969, the discovery rate peaked in
1974 and the production rate its peak in 2000.

3. 3
Europe will now have to import an increasing share of oil in an uncertain world market.
As for natural gas in the North Sea, it ensures now 50% of the natural gas consumed in
the European Union. Discovered in 1965, peaked at discovery in 1979 its production
reached its peak in 2005, after declining to enter too. Europe depends now and
increasingly in the future, the natural gas supply from North Africa and Russia. Norway
also has additional hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic, particularly natural gas to keep
and even add to its productive capacity, which will mitigate, but not replace the pressure
for imports from outside of Western Europe. It is expected that world production of
conventional oil will then start an irreversible decline that will have a huge impact
around the world. In the light of current knowledge on the basis of current data on
reserves and resources, yet predictably discovered and undiscovered, world production
must have reached its peak around 2010.
2. The oil in the global energy matrix
Energy demand in the world will increase 35% in the period between 2010 and 2040.
This demand will be driven by population growth that is expected to reach around 9
billion by 2040 (currently the world's population is 7 billion inhabitants) and the
doubling of the global economy taking into account the annual growth rate of about 3%
in much of the developing world [See the article Matriz energética continua em
evolução (Energy matrix continues to evolve) posted on the website
<http://ate2050.blogspot.com.br/2014/03/demanda-por-energia-no-mundo-
crescera.html>]. If projections hold true for 2030, fossil fuels will have a participation
of 80% in the global energy mix falling just 2% compared to 2010 [See the article by
Luiz Costamilan entitled Futuro da Energia no Mundo (Energy Future in the World)
available on the website <www. ibp.org.br/services /.../ FileDownload.EZTSvc.asp? ...
2848>].
The above-mentioned article Matriz energética continua em evolução (Energy matrix
continues to evolve) also shows that natural gas will be the energy source that will grow
more in the world. Global demand for natural gas is expected to increase by about 65%
between 2010 and 2040. According to projections, natural gas is expected to exceed, in
2025, coal as the second largest source of energy, surpassed only by oil. This article
also shows that around 65% of the growth in the supply of natural gas must come from
unconventional sources such as shale gas, which will account for a third of world
production in 2040. The United States will lead the production of unconventional gas,
accounting for more than half of expansion between 2010 and 2040. According to the
survey, the demand for oil will grow about 25% in this period.
Liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel remain as the main energy choice for
the majority of transport by offering a unique combination of accessibility, availability,
portability and high energy density. Nuclear power may also have solid growth, led by
Asia-Pacific, where it is expected that the production pass from 3% in 2010 to almost
9% in 2040. Renewable energy sources, including traditional as biomass, hydro,
geothermal, and wind, solar and biofuels will grow about 60%. Wind, solar and biofuels
will probably make up about 4% of the energy supply in 2040, surpassing the 1%
recorded in 2010.
Recent study by the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that, by the year
2030 the world will be making use of 88.5% more energy compared to that recorded in
1990 and that most of it will be provided by coal, oil and by natural gas (See the

4. 4
publication World Energy Demand and Supply of IAEA- International Atomic Energy
Agency on the website <www.iaea.org/nuclearenergy /.../ 04_Rogner_World>). This is
the energy baseline scenario for the next 15 years if the current world energy matrix is
maintained. This is therefore the scenario that unfolds for the planet's future by
maintaining the current development model of society based on excessive consumption
of fossil fuels.
3. Oil and catastrophic climate change
Worldwide, oil and coal, especially oil, are responsible for 77% of carbon dioxide
emissions in the atmosphere contributing significantly to global warming that could lead
the planet to a catastrophic climate scenario from the next decades. The use of fossil
fuels in agriculture and livestock, industry, transport, residential, trade and energy
production in thermal power plants are the main villains of global warming, beyond
deforestation. If it remains on the current rate of increase in emissions of greenhouse
gases, the average temperature of the planet is expected to increase from the current 15
degrees to 16.5 degrees Centigrade, at best, and 19.5 degrees Centigrade at worst in the
year 2025. In the year 2100, the global average temperature will reach 18 degrees
Centigrade, at best, and 29 degrees Centigrade at worst. The most probable value for the
average global temperature at the end of 21st century would be 19 degrees Centigrade
[See VEJA ON LINE Magazine Online the article Aquecimento Global (Global
Warming) available on website
<http://veja.abril.com.br/idade/exclusivo/aquecimento_global/> and LARARA, Dakir
Aquecimento Global e Mudanças Climáticas (Global Warming and Climate Change)
ULBRA Geography Course - Canoas, available on website
<http://www.educacional.com.br>].
Due to the greenhouse effect is likely to occur reduction of atmospheric precipitation,
river flows and groundwater by 50% or more which may even drying compromising the
water supply of the population and irrigation in agriculture. Other areas will be flooded
by excessive rainfall. The sea level is projected to rise which can result in the
submergence of islands and coastal cities. There may be the melting of ice sheets
deposited in the polar caps and the summits of the great mountain ranges. By 2050, sea
levels may rise to 1.17 meters, in the year 2075 to 2.12 meters and in the year 2100 to
3.45 meters. A greater number of hurricanes would result with increasing global
temperature [ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária
(Global Warming and Planetary Catastrophe). P & A Gráfica e Editora. Salvador:
2010].
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that " the world tends to evolve into an
unsustainable energy future" if governments do not adopt "urgent measures" to optimize
the available energy resources [See the article AIE: mundo se encaminha para futuro
energético insustentável (IEA: world is moving towards unsustainable energy future)
published on the website <http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2011/11/aie-diz-que-
mundo-se-encaminha-para-futuro-energetico-insustentavel.html>]. For the IEA, by
2035 would require global investment of US$ 38 trillion in energy infrastructure - two-
thirds in states outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) - to meet the growing demand, 90% to supply the emerging countries like
China and India.
To rationalize the use of available energy resources on the planet, we need to implement
a sustainable energy system on a global scale to contribute to reducing the consumption

5. 5
of fossil fuels such as oil and coal. With sustainable energy system, it is very possible
that natural gas pass to be among the fossil fuels, the dominant energy resource in the
future. Nuclear energy will not be a important source of energy in a really sustainable
energy system. This is due largely to the accidents at Three Mile Island in the United
States, Chernobyl in the former Soviet Union and Fukushima in Japan. A sustainable
energy system is only possible if energy efficiency is greatly improved.
4. The use of oil in a sustainable energy system
To implement a sustainable energy system in the future, it is essential quadruple
worldwide production of renewable energy. Quadruple worldwide production of
renewable energy is also essential to obtain a sustainable energy system in the future.
This will require the use of biomass and hydroelectric power, especially in high-
potential countries, such as Brazil. But it also requires that solar, wind and geothermal
energy is part of the "mix" energy in the world. The technologies are now available to
begin this historic transition of energies that will only occur with fundamental changes
in energy policy in most countries.
To make these changes, the first step is to redirect a large number of government
policies so that they are intended to achieve the main goals of energy efficiency and
reducing the use of fossil fuels. For example, reward the purchase of efficient
automotive vehicles and the manufacture of electric cars, encourage alternative of mass
transport of high capacity to replace the automobile, restructure the energy industries
and raise taxes on the consumption of fossil fuels.
In a sustainable energy system, renewable energy should be in the year 2030, around
70% of the total energy of the planet, the world oil production should be reduced by half
and coal to 90% while renewable energy sources should grow nearly 4 times. These are
requirements for sustainable energy systems worldwide. Regardless of the various
solutions that may be taken to eliminate or mitigate the causes of the greenhouse effect,
the most important is undoubtedly the adoption of measures to contribute to the
elimination or reduction of consumption of fossil fuels in energy production as well as
for their more efficient use in transport, industry, agriculture and urban areas (residential
and commercial), given the use and production of energy is responsible for 57% of
greenhouse gases emitted by human activity. In this sense, the implementation of a
sustainable energy system is essential.
The use of renewable energy sources will cause large magnitude of changes across the
planet highlighting, among them, the creation of entirely new industries, the
development of new transport systems and the modification of agriculture and cities.
The great challenge for today is to continue the development of new technologies that
efficiently leverage the energy and using renewable resources economically. This is the
alternative energy scenario that may avoid compromising the global environment. This
means that deep changes in global energy policy should be put in place to reduce the
consumption of fossil fuels which account for 82% of global energy supplies.
It can be seen from the above that the threat of catastrophic change in climate may cause
governments around the world are urged to radically restructure the energy matrix of
their countries and consequently all over the world so that there is a significant
reduction in consumption of fossil fuels, especially oil and coal in the future. The first
major cause of the likely decline of oil as an energy source in the world would be

6. 6
imperative to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to avoid irreversible catastrophic
change in Earth's climate.
5. The transition between abundance and scarcity of oil in the world
The second major cause of the decline of oil in the world is the possibility of failure in
supply to meet demand. The second major cause of the decline of oil in the world is the
possibility of failure in production to meet demand. The American political scientist
Michael Klare, author of Blood and Oil published by Metropolitan Books in 2004, says
that the growth in oil demand will exceed the overall supply in 2020 or 2025, pointing
out that the world is in "the oil twilight" that is, a moment of transition between
abundance and scarcity.
The Klare prognosis is confirmed by the Saudi oil expert geologist, Sadad I. Al
Husseini, former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, who admitted a
stagnation of oil production from 2015. Equally alarming was the forecast of Al
Husseini that this stagnation of production would last 15 years at best, and then,
conventional oil production would begin a "progressive decline but irreversible" (See
the website <http://www.energybulletin.net/node/ 9498>). Another objective fact is that
the demand for oil grows, at the time the reserves are close to their limits. According to
Klare, there is at present a strong increase in demand for oil from China, India, South
Korea, Brazil, Mexico and other developing economies. At the same time, we see a
sharp decline in the rate of new discoveries of oil fields.
In the past, large companies in the industry discovered more oil per year than they were
able to extract, which does not happen more today. There is at present largest oil
extraction than the ability to replenish with new discoveries. In his interview cited
above, Klare says that if the world's two largest oil producers (Saudi Arabia and Russia)
continue to increase their production in the coming years, the age of scarcity will
probably start around 2020 or 2025 when many of the great oil fields in the world will
be depleted. However, if Saudi Arabia and Russia are not able to keep the increase of
their productions the era of shortages will begin earlier, perhaps even from 2015.
It should be noted that the world's top 10 oil reserves in 2007 (in billion barrels) were as
follows: 1º Russia - 379.1; 2º Iran - 314.3; 3º Saudi Arabia - 308.7; 4º Qatar - 174.6; 5º
Arab Emirates - 135.6; 6º Iraq - 134.9; 7º Kuwait - 112.7; 8º Venezuela - 107.1; 9º
Brazil - 94.4 and 10 Nigeria - 69.0. There is the expectation that Iraq's oil reserves are
exhausted in 158 years, Saudi Arabia in 67 years, Russia in 22 years, in Brazil in 18
years and the United States in seven years (PETROBRAS and BRITISH
PETROLEUM. As 10 maiores reservas de petróleo do mundo (The 10 largest oil
reserves in the world) available on the website <http://lista10.org/diversos/as-10-
maiores-reservas-de-petroleo-do-mundo/>].
According to Igor Fuser, author of the book Petróleo e Poder – O Envolvimento Militar
dos Estados Unidos no Golfo Pérsico (Oil & Power - The US Military Involvement in
the Persian Gulf) (Editora Unesp, 2008), the Middle East expanded region, which
includes North Africa, has in its subsoil more than 2/3 of the oil reserves in the world.
For Klare, petroleum twilight, ie, a transition from an era of abundant oil and an era of
absolute scarcity, the black gold will not disappear, but will prove insufficient to meet
global demand. Thus, we will have periodically shortage of production, high prices and
extreme vulnerability to oil shocks. Klare says, because of the growing competition
between the US, China, Japan and other major consumers for access to what will be left

7. 7
over of producing areas in the world may arise military conflicts [See the article Em
meio a tensão com vizinhos, China vai aumentar força costeira (Amid tension with
neighbors, China will increase coastal force), available on the website
<http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mundo/931433-em-meio-a-tensao-com-vizinhos-china-
vai-aumentar-forca-costeira.shtml>].
In his interview with Folha de S. Paulo, Klare says there will be a permanent state of
war because there are no more new continents to discover and plunder by the great
colonialist and imperialist powers as in the past. At present, there has been extracting oil
from every corner of the planet. Because of globalization, more and more countries are
competing for access to the remaining oil supply and demand is growing. When these
offers are exhausted, there will be no other place to possess but to take the oil reserves
of those who have even more sharpening international conflicts. The most likely
scenario is that will occur many localized conflicts that can set off major wars when the
major powers to get involved in local conflicts, especially in the Persian Gulf or the
Caspian region where the vital interests of the great powers stand a cauldron boiling of
political disputes, ethnic and religious.
6. The oil substitutes and derivatives
Table 1, below, shows oil products, their uses and its possible substitutes.
Table 1: Oil products, their uses and substitutes
Oil products Use of oil products Substitutes for oil
products
Kerosene Transportation (aircraft) Biokerosene
Gasoline Transportation (Cars /
Trucks)
Ethanol / Electric vehicle /
Natural Gas
Diesel oil Transportation (Truck /
Boat / Ship)
Biodiesel
Transport (Trains) Eletricity
Agricultural Sector Biodiesel
Power generation Biodiesel / Biomass
Fuel oil Ships Biodiesel/ Nuclear
Industry Natural gas/ Biomass
Power generation Biodiesel / Biomass
LPG Households Biogas/ Natural gas
Services Biogas/ Natural gas
The oil should remain the main source of energy on the planet for decades because
feeds mainly the chemical and transport sectors, with strong growth, and for which the
existing substitutes are not yet competitive. The transport sector, chemical industry and,
to a lesser extent, the heat are the main responsible for the increase in oil consumption,
sectors where its replacement is not easy. With reference to the heating, natural gas is a
possible oil replacement. Natural gas demand should therefore increase significantly:

8. 8
the IEA (International Energy Agency) forecasts an increase of 2.1% per year by 2030
against only 1.3% for oil. But natural gas is harder to transport and store than oil, and
imposes problems of energy dependence, particularly with regard to Russia, world's
leading exporter.
In the transport sector, oil is widely dominant on the world market with a share of 94%,
against 1% for biofuels, and 5% for electricity and coal. Another alternative for the
transportation sector is the fuel cell with the use of hydrogen that is very expensive and
requires a radical adaptation of vehicles. In the long run, the electric car is another
option for the transport sector, but would need a strong increase in electricity
production. Recently, the United States launched the exploration of shale gas that
produces oil composition similar to oil and can replace it entirely.
7. The shale gas as oil substitute
The third major cause of the decline of oil as an energy source is represented by the
exploitation of shale gas in the United States that has become a real alternative to oil as
a fossil fuel. Over the past decade, the United States became leaders in the production of
shale gas, thanks to new innovative extraction techniques. It is observed that the shale
gas is a source of fuel, when subjected to high temperatures, producing oil having a
similar composition to the oil which is extracted naphtha, fuel oil, LPG, diesel and
gasoline. The natural gas trapped in shale gas formations, whose obtaining before it was
too difficult and too expensive, it is now possible to be obtained through the
underground drilling method by hydraulic fracturing (fracking) developed in the 1990s
with the use of a mixture of water, sand and chemicals to pierce the layers of shale and
extract natural gas from the pores of rocks [See the articles A revolução do gás de xisto
nos EUA: passado e futuro (The shale gas revolution in the US: past and future)
published on the website <http: //www.wharton .universia.net / index.cfm? fa =
viewArticle & id = 2256 & language = english> and ALCOFORADO, Fernando.
Impactos da revolução energética dos Estados Unidos sobre a indústria de petróleo, a
geopolítica, o meio ambiente, o pré-sal no Brasil e as energias renováveis (Impacts of
the energy revolution in the United States on the oil industry, geopolitics, the
environment, the pre-salt in Brazil and renewable energy). Blog de Falcoforado
<http://fernando.alcoforado.zip.net>].
With the use of shale gas, the US production of gas went from virtually zero in 2000 to
a level that contributes with ¼ of US natural gas and should reach the half of the total
natural gas in the country by 2030, according to data from the Institute for Public Policy
James A. Baker at Rice University in Houston, Texas. Owner of the second largest
reserves in the world after China according to the EIA Energy Information
Administration, the United States now have a new and vast source of energy that could
help the country to reduce its dependence on imported oil.
The recent Belfer Center report, based on data from Harvard and titled Oil: The Next
Revolution, suggests that the production of shale gas can reach about 6 million barrels
per day in the United States by 2020. Considering the potential of the US oil production
in conventional or deepwater platforms, this would suggest that by 2020, the US could
be close to achieving its energy independence from oil (See the website
<http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/ 22144 / oil.html>). The greatest
geopolitical impact of shale gas extraction technology lies less in the fact that the
United States will be more self-sufficient in energy terms and more in subsequent

9. 9
displacement of world oil markets due to the sharp reduction of imports, especially from
the Middle East.
This geopolitical impact will be further enhanced by the development of shale gas
reserves in China, Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and other countries, which will put
additional pressure on world oil prices that will tend to fall. The incentives for the
development of shale gas are very large. Europe will also benefit from the shale gas
revolution, as oil prices begin to be pressed down. China, in turn, has even greater
incentives to develop shale gas because its recoverable reserves are larger than those of
the United States, totaling 36 trillion cubic meters, and because it would protect much
of a blocking effect by the US Navy controlling the Pacific Ocean preventing most of
the Chinese oil arrives by means of tankers.
Oil prices fell sharply to US$ 50 in 2015, instead of the nearly US$ 100 in recent years,
thanks to the shale gas revolution in the United States. The independent institute
AlphaValue predicts that shale gas may be responsible for nearly half of US energy
consumption in 2050. This study was presented exactly one year after the International
Energy Agency predicted that the price of a barrel of oil would be between US$ 100 and
US$ 118 by 2015. Due to the fall in imports of the product by the US, the oil barrel fell
in value worldwide. It was a monumental shock. This meant that the United States,
which consumes one-fifth of the world's energy, to become less dependent on oil from
the Persian Gulf countries, Russia and Nigeria, for example [See the article Gás de xisto
pode derrubar preço do petróleo pela metade, diz estudo (Shale gas can bring down oil
prices by half, says a study) published on the website
<http://www.portugues.rfi.fr/economia/20120927-preco-do-petroleo-poderia-cair-pela-
metade-gracas-exploracao-do-gas-de-xisto-diz-e>].
Geopolitically, the revolution of shale gas can strengthen the United States and China
reducing or eliminating their energy dependence. At the same time, this revolution will
be potentially destabilizing to Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, for example,
dependent on oil exports. This can create economic, political and social instability in
these countries with the emergence of social conflicts, with unforeseeable
consequences. It should be noted that the gradual decline in oil prices since last June to
reach US$ 57 a barrel of Brent at the time calls into question Russia's economy and
other oil producing countries that are dependent on its export earnings.
One hypothesis that has been mooted is that the United States is behind the drop in oil
prices to affect the economies of enemy countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
Because of the fall in oil prices, Russia is facing at the moment a violent speculative
attack on the country's capital flight which is resulting in a sharp drop in the purchasing
power of the ruble. OPEC countries, which spent more than two years decreasing its
production, thereby offsetting the increases in crude oil production by countries outside
OPEC, changed their strategy since 2014 September and are increasing their production
contributing to the fall in the price of oil in order to make unfeasible the oil substitutes
such as shale gas which is only viable with the price of oil above US$ 50. If from the
geopolitical point of view the fall in oil prices is good for the United States by harming
enemy countries, on the other hand, is negative if the price of oil falls below US$ 50
because would make unfeasible the exploration of shale gas.
Explorations of shale gas began in many countries, including Poland, Ukraine,
Australia, Great Britain and also in China. The UK will supply by 2032, due to the shale
gas, a quarter of its requirements for that type of fuel. Appeared also new technologies

10. 10
that allow obtaining oil shale gas. The Japan Petroleum Exploration Company, for
example, was able to obtain liquid fuels from shale gas, which is likely to be the
solution of the serious energy shortage problem in this country, which is also related to
the refusal, in perspective, of atomic energy by Japan [See the article Revolução de xisto
muda economia mundial e a geopolítica (Shale revolution changes the world economy
and geopolitics) published on the website <http://portuguese.ruvr.ru/2012_10_07/xisto-
novo-combustivel-geopolitica/>].
It should be noted that the use of shale gas is extremely bad for the environment
because it generates half the carbon emissions from coal contributing to the increase in
emissions of greenhouse gases, especially methane. Furthermore, fracking (hydraulic
fracturing) used in shale gas exploration raises environmental concerns such as the
contamination of aquifers sheets, if the tunnels are not aligned properly and chemicals
used to keep open the pores of the rock leak. The use of natural gas from shale is
finding opponents in various parts of the world claiming that the fracking method can
poison groundwater resources and even cause earthquakes. So far, the fracking was
banned in France and Bulgaria; suspended or voluntarily paralyzed in the UK, South
Africa, Quebec, parts of Germany and Australia; and convicted of northern Spain to
New York.
The energy revolution in the United States based on shale gas tends to develop in
various parts of the world in an attempt to various countries to free themselves from
dependence on imported oil, especially the Middle East, the critical region of the
geopolitical from the point of view on the possibility of the outbreak of regional
conflicts that can trigger even a new global conflict threatening the supply of this
important energy source. The development of the production of shale gas will impact
heavily against the oil industry forcing lower their prices and profitability. In Brazil,
there may be the infeasibility of oil production in pre-salt layer that would be feasible
only with the price of oil above US$ 70 dollars.
8. Conclusions
Most likely, the fall in the price of oil currently taking place may not only cause serious
economic and financial problems for the oil-exporting countries to reducing their export
earnings, but also halt the development of the exploitation of shale gas in the United
States and the world and have a negative impact on the development of renewable
energy sources that would become less competitive economically and to difficult its
future expansion that has been recorded around the world in recent years thanks to the
rising price of oil. Despite the shale gas present as an alternative to oil in the face of
predictable shortage of fossil fuel and the need for many countries to become less
dependent on their suppliers from Middle East, Iran and Russia, their entry into the
world energy matrix does not solve the problem of emission of greenhouse gases. Given
the urgent need to ban fossil fuels to fight against global warming, the oil decline will
inevitably be also accompanied by the suspension of shale gas exploitation. After the
twilight of oil will enter a new era with the widespread use of renewable energy sources
(hydro, solar, wind, hydrogen, tidal, etc.).