Financing strategies for adaptation. Presentation for CANCC
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95 Express Lanes Update
1. December 14, 2015
95 Express Lanes Update
Presentation to the FAMPO Policy Committee
2. Original 95/395 Express Lane Plan
โข Called โ Virginia HOT Lanesโ
โข New/Upgraded 56 Mile Facility
โข Massaponax to Pentagon/Eads St
โ I-95 โ 47 Miles
โ I-395 โ 9 Miles
โข About Half Actually Built To Date
โ I-95 โ 26 Miles
โ I-395 โ 2 Miles
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3. Governorโs 95 Express Lane
Announcement
โข Public Announcement on 11/24/2015
โข Two New Express Lane Projects
โ Add 9 miles to I-95/395 Express Lanes
โข 7 Mile Extension along I-395 in Northern Virginia
โข 2 Mile Extension along I-95 in Stafford
โ New Total Length Will be 37 miles
โข I-95: 28 Miles
โข I-395: 9 Miles
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5. I-95 Express Lane Extension in Stafford
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โข Two Mile Extension
โข One Reversible lane built for potential
conversion to two lanes
โข Project Start in 2016
โข Project Completion in 2018
โข Project Website:
https://www.expresslanes.com/uploads/1000/938-
95_Operational_Improvements_Fact_Sheet.pdf
6. Review of Toll and Revenue Study
for I-95/I-395 HOT Lanes Project
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7. Study Background
โข Completed by VDOT consultant Halcrow in 2009
โข Covered about 56 miles of I-95/395 from the Pentagon area in Arlington
to the Massaponax area in Spotsylvania
โข Used data from the 2000 to 2006 timeframe to forecast to 2071
โข Used Washington MPO Modeling Tool for analysis
โข Initially used to support 95/395 Express Lane projects. In August, 2015,
however, this study was used as justification by the state for not moving
ahead with the Southern Section of the 95 Express Lanes project
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8. State interpretation of Study Findings
Study does not support 95 Express lane improvements south of
Rte 610: Garrisonville Rd
1. From 8/21/15 FLS Article
โStudies indicate that toll revenue wonโt support the cost to extend the express lanesโ โฆ
โit would cost $30 million to $40 million a mile to add the lanes, and that doesnโt include a bridge
that would have to be built between the current spans across the Rappahannock River.โ
2. From October 19th FAMPO Meeting:
โข Northern Section would generate approximately six times the revenue of Southern Section
โข Construction cost of Southern Section would be approximately $1 Billion
โข Operation cost of Southern Section would be approximately $1 Billion over a 60 year
period. This calculation is based on Transurbanโs current operation costs.
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9. Study Toll Sections
โข Six Sections
โข Northern Section = 4 section; A to D
โข Southern Section = 2 sections; E to F
โข Breakpoint between Northern and
Southern Section at Garrisonville Rd
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10. Summary of Study Results 1
โข Table 7.1 - pg. 54 โ Toll Revenue can be maximized in 2030
with a minimum speed of 55 mph compared to 45 or 65 mph
โข Finding supports current minimum Express Lane Speed
Threshold of 55 mph
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11. Summary of Study Results 2:
Toll Rates Decline South of Garrisonville
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Garrisonville
12. Study Results 2 continued:
Toll Rates Decline South of Garrisonville
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Garrisonville
13. Study Results 2 continued:
Transactions Decline South of Garrisonville
20Garrisonville
14. But Observed Study Traffic Data from 2001 to 2006 Does Not
Show an I-95 Traffic Dropoff at Garrisonville
21Garrisonville
15. And 2000 to 2014 Daily Traffic Trends For I-95 Corridor: I-495
(Springfield Interchange) to Hanover County
Does Not Show a Traffic Dropoff at Garrisonville
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Garrisonville Massaponax Garrisonville Massaponax
Low Growth
2000 to 2014
High Growth
2000 to 2014
High Growth
2000 to 2014
Low Growth
2000 to 2014
NOVA Hanover NOVA Hanover
16. Why Does Study Analysis Show a Significant Dropoff
in Toll Revenue South of Garrisonville?
โข Due to Limitations of using Washington Model to Model FAMPO region
1. Northern part of FAMPO only included to better
model Washington MPO area and include entire
Washington Urbanized area which includes
Northern Stafford and ends near Garrisonville
2. Only covers about 50% of FAMPO Model area
3. Does not include most of Spotsylvania
4. Insensitive to Growth South of Massaponax
5. Model known to underestimate traffic between
NOVA and Fredericksburg
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17. Study Report Documents Model Problem where Trips
Underforecast between FAMPO region and NOVA
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1. Adjustment based on 2000 CTPP data was
inadequate for 2005 base model adjustment
2. Adjustment based on 2000 CTPP data did not
properly account for future growth in travel between
FAMPO Counties and NOVA from 2005 to 2071
18. Summary
1. Study incorrectly underforecasts Toll & Revenue from 95/395 Express
Lane improvements south of Garrisonville due to limitations in the
study modeling tool
2. Study based on old data from 2000 to 2006 timeframe
3. Study cannot be used to justify no need for 95 Express Lane
improvements south of Garrisonville
4. A New Toll & Revenue Study is needed for 95 Express Lanes Southern
Section
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