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Reviewing Ontario’s “Buy Local” Renewable Energy Program
John Farrell, 5/20/13
ONTARIO’S RENEWABLE ENERGY
2004
Ontario Power
Authority
launched
1,500 MW of
large wind
power
contracted
2005 2006-08
Renewable
Energy
Standard
Offer
Program
contracts new
<10 MW wind
and solar
2009-13
FIT program
launched and
contracted ~5,000
MW of new
renewable energy
PROGRAMS
• Achievements
• Reduce from 25% to 0% coal-fired power by 2014
• 2,600 MW of new renewable energy
• 31,000 new jobs
• Significant local participation (1 in 7 farmers)
ONTARIO’S RENEWABLE ENERGY
PROGRAMS
ONTARIO’S RENEWABLE ENERGY
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
RESOP FIT
Solar Power by Program
645 MW (AC)
CAPACITY
ONTARIO’S RENEWABLE ENERGY
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Large wind RESOP FIT
2000 MWWind Power by Program
CAPACITY
ONTARIO’S FIT PROGRAM
• Long-term contract (e.g. 20 years) like RESOP
• Fixed price (like RESOP) with prices sufficient for return on
investment
• Priority grid connection
• Minimum “domestic content” requirements
• Now 50% of wind project and 60% of solar project
• Launched 2009
“Feed-In Tariff”
ONTARIO’S FIT PROGRAM
• Goal: 5,000 MW of new renewable energy by 2030
• Goal: 50,000 new jobs by 2012
“Feed-In Tariff”
0 MW
100 MW
200 MW
300 MW
400 MW
500 MW
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FIT HISTORY
Program open (FIT 1.0)
Already
15,000
MW in
applications
Programreview
MicroFIT
open
Small
FIT
openFIT 2.0
Goals:
5,000 MW by 2030
50,00 jobs by 2012
FIT ENERGY HISTORY
0 MW
100 MW
200 MW
300 MW
400 MW
500 MW
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Program open (FIT 1.0) Programreview
MicroFIT
open
Small
FIT
open
Solar power
Wind power
Total
FIT 2.0
487 MW
developedGoals:
5,000 MW by 2030
50,00 jobs by 2012
FIT ENERGY HISTORY
0 MW
100 MW
200 MW
300 MW
400 MW
500 MW
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
487 MW
Under contract:
4,750 MW
Huge project queue
Goals:
5,000 MW by 2030
50,00 jobs by 2012
FIT JOB HISTORY
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Program open (FIT 1.0) Programreview
MicroFIT
open
Small
FIT
openFIT 2.0
20,000
jobs
31,000
jobs
Target:
50,000 jobsGoals:
5,000 MW by 2030
50,00 jobs by 2012
NEW MANUFACTURING
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Delivered jobs as promised
Behind schedule
No operations in Ontario
Number of manufacturers responding to 2013 survey
with intentions to locate in Ontario in 2011
CHALLENGES
$0 trillion
$0.50 trillion
$1.00 trillion
$1.50 trillion
$2.00 trillion
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Global Recession
Lost Canadian GDP
CHALLENGES
NIMBY
CHALLENGES
15.9%
34.6%
49.5%
2011 Ontario Election Results (Control of Assembly)
Liberal
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
2011 Election cost Liberal Party
9.5%
23.8%
66.7%
Before
After
CHALLENGES
Hydro One
Most U.S. utilities
Hawai’ian utilities
California utilities
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
50%
25%
15%
7%
Limit as a percent of peak demand
Hydro One’s measly 7%
limit on distributed
renewable energy is
much lower compared
to other jurisdictions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
CHALLENGES
5,000 MW
target
2030
2013
2018
4,750 MW
under contract
5,000 MW
likely installed
Way
ahead of
schedule
ADJUSTMENTS
Technology Size Price
Inflation
Adj.
Biomass
< 10 MW 13.8¢ 20%
> 10 MW 13¢ 20%
Biogas
On-farm < 100 kW 19.5¢ 20%
On-farm 100 to 250 kW 18.5¢ 20%
Biogas < 500 kW 16¢ 20%
Biogas 500 kW to 10
MW
14.7¢ 20%
Biogas > 10 MW 10.4¢
Waterpower
< 10 MW 13.1¢ 20%
> 10 MW 12.2¢ 20%
Landfill gas
< 10 MW 11.1¢ 20%
> 10 MW 10.3¢ 20%
Solar PV
Any type < 10 kW 80.2¢
Rooftop 10 to 250 kW 71.3¢
Rooftop 250 to 500 kW 63.5¢
Rooftop > 500 kW 53.9¢
Ground
Mounted
> 10 kW 44.3¢
Wind
Onshore any 13.5¢ 20%
Offshore any 19¢ 20%
Technology Size Price
Inflation
Adj.
Solar PV
Rooftop < 10 kW 54.9¢
Rooftop 10 to 100 kW 54.8¢
Rooftop 100 to 500 kW 53.9¢
Rooftop > 500 kW 48.7¢
Ground
Mounted
< 10 kW 44.5¢
Ground
Mounted
10 to 500 kW 38.8¢
Ground
Mounted
500 kW to 5 MW 35¢
Ground
Mounted
> 5 MW 34.7¢
Wind
Onshore any 11.5¢ 20%
Offshore any n/a 20%
FIT 1.0
Lower prices
Changes for FIT 2.0
Changes for FIT 2.0
ADJUSTMENTS
Local Ownership
Min.15% ownership by co-op with > 35 owners +3
Min. 15% ownership by Aboriginals +3
Public education or health owned project +2
Local Support
Resolution of local municipal orAboriginal support +2
Local Host
Public education or health hosted project +2
Priority Points for Local
Priority Points for Local
Local Ownership
Min.15% ownership by co-op with > 35 owners +3
Min. 15% ownership by Aboriginals +3
Public education or health owned project +2
Local Support
Resolution of local municipal orAboriginal support +2
Local Host
Public education or health hosted project +2
Technology Size Price
Inflation
Adj.
Solar PV
Rooftop < 10 kW 54.9¢
Rooftop 10 to 100 kW 54.8¢
Rooftop 100 to 500 kW 53.9¢
Rooftop > 500 kW 48.7¢
Ground
Mounted
< 10 kW 44.5¢
Ground
Mounted
10 to 500 kW 38.8¢
Ground
Mounted
500 kW to 5 MW 35¢
Ground
Mounted
> 5 MW 34.7¢
Wind
Onshore any 11.5¢ 20%
Offshore any n/a 20%
Lower prices
Changes for FIT 2.0
ADJUSTMENTS
Will
adjustments
matter?
With the 2030 goal nearly met?
LESSONS LEARNED
• FIT program enables democratic energy: 1 in 7 Ontario
farmers is participating
• Local content requirements lead to local jobs
• Ambitious renewable energy program helped close all coal-
fired power plants in Ontario
LESSONS LEARNED
• Power Authority and utilities need to get projects online faster
and/or sign fewer contracts
• Price adjustments should happen more quickly, especially for
solar power
• More local ownership – and earlier – could have alleviated
political and project problems
LEARN MORE
.org
ilsr.org

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Expect Delays: a Presentation Reviewing Ontario’s “Buy Local” Renewable Energy Program

  • 1. Reviewing Ontario’s “Buy Local” Renewable Energy Program John Farrell, 5/20/13
  • 2. ONTARIO’S RENEWABLE ENERGY 2004 Ontario Power Authority launched 1,500 MW of large wind power contracted 2005 2006-08 Renewable Energy Standard Offer Program contracts new <10 MW wind and solar 2009-13 FIT program launched and contracted ~5,000 MW of new renewable energy PROGRAMS
  • 3. • Achievements • Reduce from 25% to 0% coal-fired power by 2014 • 2,600 MW of new renewable energy • 31,000 new jobs • Significant local participation (1 in 7 farmers) ONTARIO’S RENEWABLE ENERGY PROGRAMS
  • 4. ONTARIO’S RENEWABLE ENERGY 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 RESOP FIT Solar Power by Program 645 MW (AC) CAPACITY
  • 5. ONTARIO’S RENEWABLE ENERGY 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Large wind RESOP FIT 2000 MWWind Power by Program CAPACITY
  • 6. ONTARIO’S FIT PROGRAM • Long-term contract (e.g. 20 years) like RESOP • Fixed price (like RESOP) with prices sufficient for return on investment • Priority grid connection • Minimum “domestic content” requirements • Now 50% of wind project and 60% of solar project • Launched 2009 “Feed-In Tariff”
  • 7. ONTARIO’S FIT PROGRAM • Goal: 5,000 MW of new renewable energy by 2030 • Goal: 50,000 new jobs by 2012 “Feed-In Tariff”
  • 8. 0 MW 100 MW 200 MW 300 MW 400 MW 500 MW 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 FIT HISTORY Program open (FIT 1.0) Already 15,000 MW in applications Programreview MicroFIT open Small FIT openFIT 2.0 Goals: 5,000 MW by 2030 50,00 jobs by 2012
  • 9. FIT ENERGY HISTORY 0 MW 100 MW 200 MW 300 MW 400 MW 500 MW 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Program open (FIT 1.0) Programreview MicroFIT open Small FIT open Solar power Wind power Total FIT 2.0 487 MW developedGoals: 5,000 MW by 2030 50,00 jobs by 2012
  • 10. FIT ENERGY HISTORY 0 MW 100 MW 200 MW 300 MW 400 MW 500 MW 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 487 MW Under contract: 4,750 MW Huge project queue Goals: 5,000 MW by 2030 50,00 jobs by 2012
  • 11. FIT JOB HISTORY 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Program open (FIT 1.0) Programreview MicroFIT open Small FIT openFIT 2.0 20,000 jobs 31,000 jobs Target: 50,000 jobsGoals: 5,000 MW by 2030 50,00 jobs by 2012
  • 12. NEW MANUFACTURING 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Delivered jobs as promised Behind schedule No operations in Ontario Number of manufacturers responding to 2013 survey with intentions to locate in Ontario in 2011
  • 13. CHALLENGES $0 trillion $0.50 trillion $1.00 trillion $1.50 trillion $2.00 trillion 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Global Recession Lost Canadian GDP
  • 15. CHALLENGES 15.9% 34.6% 49.5% 2011 Ontario Election Results (Control of Assembly) Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic 2011 Election cost Liberal Party 9.5% 23.8% 66.7% Before After
  • 16. CHALLENGES Hydro One Most U.S. utilities Hawai’ian utilities California utilities 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 50% 25% 15% 7% Limit as a percent of peak demand Hydro One’s measly 7% limit on distributed renewable energy is much lower compared to other jurisdictions
  • 17. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 CHALLENGES 5,000 MW target 2030 2013 2018 4,750 MW under contract 5,000 MW likely installed Way ahead of schedule
  • 18. ADJUSTMENTS Technology Size Price Inflation Adj. Biomass < 10 MW 13.8¢ 20% > 10 MW 13¢ 20% Biogas On-farm < 100 kW 19.5¢ 20% On-farm 100 to 250 kW 18.5¢ 20% Biogas < 500 kW 16¢ 20% Biogas 500 kW to 10 MW 14.7¢ 20% Biogas > 10 MW 10.4¢ Waterpower < 10 MW 13.1¢ 20% > 10 MW 12.2¢ 20% Landfill gas < 10 MW 11.1¢ 20% > 10 MW 10.3¢ 20% Solar PV Any type < 10 kW 80.2¢ Rooftop 10 to 250 kW 71.3¢ Rooftop 250 to 500 kW 63.5¢ Rooftop > 500 kW 53.9¢ Ground Mounted > 10 kW 44.3¢ Wind Onshore any 13.5¢ 20% Offshore any 19¢ 20% Technology Size Price Inflation Adj. Solar PV Rooftop < 10 kW 54.9¢ Rooftop 10 to 100 kW 54.8¢ Rooftop 100 to 500 kW 53.9¢ Rooftop > 500 kW 48.7¢ Ground Mounted < 10 kW 44.5¢ Ground Mounted 10 to 500 kW 38.8¢ Ground Mounted 500 kW to 5 MW 35¢ Ground Mounted > 5 MW 34.7¢ Wind Onshore any 11.5¢ 20% Offshore any n/a 20% FIT 1.0 Lower prices Changes for FIT 2.0
  • 19. Changes for FIT 2.0 ADJUSTMENTS Local Ownership Min.15% ownership by co-op with > 35 owners +3 Min. 15% ownership by Aboriginals +3 Public education or health owned project +2 Local Support Resolution of local municipal orAboriginal support +2 Local Host Public education or health hosted project +2 Priority Points for Local
  • 20. Priority Points for Local Local Ownership Min.15% ownership by co-op with > 35 owners +3 Min. 15% ownership by Aboriginals +3 Public education or health owned project +2 Local Support Resolution of local municipal orAboriginal support +2 Local Host Public education or health hosted project +2 Technology Size Price Inflation Adj. Solar PV Rooftop < 10 kW 54.9¢ Rooftop 10 to 100 kW 54.8¢ Rooftop 100 to 500 kW 53.9¢ Rooftop > 500 kW 48.7¢ Ground Mounted < 10 kW 44.5¢ Ground Mounted 10 to 500 kW 38.8¢ Ground Mounted 500 kW to 5 MW 35¢ Ground Mounted > 5 MW 34.7¢ Wind Onshore any 11.5¢ 20% Offshore any n/a 20% Lower prices Changes for FIT 2.0 ADJUSTMENTS Will adjustments matter? With the 2030 goal nearly met?
  • 21. LESSONS LEARNED • FIT program enables democratic energy: 1 in 7 Ontario farmers is participating • Local content requirements lead to local jobs • Ambitious renewable energy program helped close all coal- fired power plants in Ontario
  • 22. LESSONS LEARNED • Power Authority and utilities need to get projects online faster and/or sign fewer contracts • Price adjustments should happen more quickly, especially for solar power • More local ownership – and earlier – could have alleviated political and project problems