1.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
1
A qualitative analysis of the early
warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita1, João P. Albuquerque1,3, Victor Marchezini2, Eduardo M.
Mendiondo2,4
1 ICMC, University of São Paulo, Brazil
2 CEMADEN, Ministry of Science, Techn. & Innovation, Brazil
3 CIM, University of Warwick, UK
4 NIBH/EESC, University of São Paulo, Brazil
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A qualitative analysis of the early warning process
in disaster management

2.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
2
Introduction
Research design
Research process
Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process
Conclusions
Future directions
Agenda

3.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
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Monitoring and early warning in Brazil
ANA CPRM IBGE INPE, ..
CEMADEN
CENAD
Civil Defense
Monitoring and early
warning
Alerting
municipalities
Response
agencies tasks
data
sources
National plan for
managing risks and
resposes to natural
disasters (2012)
Introduction

4.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
4
Monitoring and early warning in Brazil
Monitoring Room
Introduction

5.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
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Research Design
Research Methods
Define
research
question
Elaborate
the protocol
Collect data
with
practitioners
Analyze the
collected
data
research process
• How is the early warning process operated by an
emergency agency?
• Statement: An early warning process can be modeled by means of
the Business Process Modeling and Notation (BPMN)

6.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
6
Research Design
Research Methods
Define
research
question
Elaborate
the protocol
Collect data
with
practitioners
Analyze the
collected
data
Coding technique (Saldaña, 2015)
Case study approach (Yin, 2009; Runeson &
Höst, 2009)
methods
research process

7.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
7
Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process

8.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
8
Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process

9.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
9
Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process

10.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
10
Preliminary results
Early warning decision-making process
Geologists
Meteorologists
Team
Hydrologits
Disaster management
specialists

11.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
11
Conclusions
• The role of disaster management specialist is still confusion
• They should take care of tasks related to the analysis of community
vulnerability, e.g. risk analysis
• The analytical features used in the work enable the
identification of practitioners' processes
• There are a lot of data available from both static and dynamic
features
• All these data are not integrated in a way that allows a correlation or
"what-if" analysis.
• VGI data is still not integrated into all these data

12.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
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• Brazilian Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management (2012)
National plan for managing risks and resposes to natural disasters.
http://goo.gl/8eJF0u.
• Object Management Group (OMG). (2013) Business Process Model
and Notation (BPMN), Version 2.0 (formal/2013-12-09). [Online]
http://goo.gl/ev6tUR.
• Runeson, P. and Höst, M. (2009) Guidelines for conducting and
reporting case study research in software engineering. Empirical
Software Engineering, pp. 131-164.
• Saldaña, J. (2012) The Coding Manual for Qualitative Researchers.
2 edition. SAGE Publications Ltd.
• Yin, R. K. (2009) Case study research: design and methods. 4. ed.
Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications, Inc.
References

13.
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM | horita@icmc.usp.br | www.flaviohorita.com | www.agora.icmc.usp.br
13
A qualitative analysis of the early warning process
in disaster management
Flávio E. A. Horita, MSc., CSM
PhD Student, LABES, ICMC, University of São Paulo
Member of AGORA Research Group
horita@icmc.usp.br
http://www.agora.icmc.usp.br | http://www.flaviohorita.com
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