Macro-economic perspective about the importance of increasing agricultural productivity.

1. 2000 : 6 billion people

2. 2050 : 9.2 billion people

3. Food demand will increase 50% by 2030
source : FAO

4. Can food supply respond
to this increased demand ?

5. Limited availability of land for agricultural production
Global per capita availability of cropland has
declined from 0.4 Ha in 1961 to 0.25 Ha in 1998
(Bruinsma, 2003)

6. Global productivity growth slowing down
From 1960s to 1980s annual
productivity growth in
world agriculture around 4%.
Now 1%, with tendency towards further decline
(FAO, 2008)

7. Global warming expected to further negatively impact
agricultural productivity

8. Water shortage increases constraint on production,
slowing down productivity growth
FAO, 2007

9. Lack of investment in agricultural research
Continuous reduction of research since 80’s in
industrialized countries where 80% of research takes place
(Pardey, 2006)

10. Consequence ?

11. Price increase of agricultural commodities
Von Witzke, 2010

12. Increased number of undernourished people
825 million people are currently seriously underfed
(FAO)

13. Increased number of food riots

14. Increased migration

15. Productivity growth is crucial
to address food security,
to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions,
to preserve biodiversity.