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Framtidens affärsmodeller
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Handelskammardagen Borås 23 oktober 2013
Martin Börjesson
Director Foresight to Insight
Knowit Business Growth AB
martin.borjesson@knowit.se
www.knowit.se
+46 704 262891
@futuramb

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1959...
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Cemex 1995...
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Guadalajara

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Affärsmodellen - det som utmanas när nya aktörer träder in
och konkurrerar på nya främmande sätt
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Bilindustri
Car2Go
IT/Telekom
Media
Dagstidningar
Gartner: 102B App Store nedladdningar
globalt under 2013, försäljning för $26
miljarder, 17% från In-App köp
Musikbranschen
Tesla
Bokförlag
Mobiltelefoner

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Ett företag är en verksamhet som bryggar olika logiker
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Marknadslogik
Affärslogik
Företag
Tekniklogik

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Affärsmodellstänkande - en designapproach i en komplex värld
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Värderingsförändringar
you
Do-it-
Mobilite
rself
Upplevelser
Marknadslogik
?
t
Affärslogik
r
uto
val
se
rin
g
Fle
r
ali
git
ering
igitalis
D
Di
Tekniklogik

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Exempel: Business Model Canvas - Alexander Osterwalder
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Vad affärsmodellerna signalerar inför framtiden
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• Förståelse i typer - kategorier
• En skalmodell man kan studera närmare
• Recept - beskrivning hur man gör
• Hypoteser för hur man skulle kunna göra
Explosion av nya
affärsmodeller
för att tjäna pengar
inn
eb
ä
r
Kreativitet
Experimenterande Branschutmaningar
Evolution
Samhällsutmaningar
Forskning Design
Ekonomiska förändringar
Lärande
Sociala förändringar
Teknikutveckling

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Allt mer komplexa samband knyts ihop i allt fler affärsmodeller
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Ökande komplexitet
Internet
Upplevelser
Moderna
Mobilitet
människan
Individualisering
Innovation
JIT Stad Data
Nätverk
Enkla relationer
Fabriken
Big Data
4B
Open source
Affär
Hem &
familj
Lågkostnadsmodellen
Social nätverksförsäljning
Pyramid
Annonseringen betalar
Premium
Bricks-and-mortar
1950
Service-av-produkt
Hyvel-och-blad
Direktförsäljning
Postorder
Auktion
Kina
Individen++
Evig beta
Gamification
Prenumeration
Freemium
Bricks-and-clicks
Ta bort mellanleden
Crowdfunding
P2P
DIY
Crowdsourcing
Nätverkseffekt
2000
Livsstilskapning
2013
Valutaexplosion
Begränsade
resurser
Osäkerhet
Kunskapsexplosion
...

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Framväxande affärsmodellstyp: P2P - plattform - crowd
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Blocket: 2012 annonserades varor ut för
313 miljarder SEK ≈ 9% av Sveriges BNP
Kickstarter:
Sedan 2009 har 5 miljoner människor
äskat $830 miljoner och ca 50,000
kreativa projekt har finansierats
AirBnB: >10 miljoner bokade nätter över hela världen
App Store: 102 miljarder nedladdningar
globalt under 2013, försäljning för
$26 miljarder, 17% från In-App köp

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Framväxande affärsmodellstyp: Open X - DIY - Collaboration
(Open source, Open Spec, Open Content, Open Data, Open Innovation…)
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•
LEGO: utnyttjar den osynliga demografin av kreativa
individer som utvecklar nya idéer för LEGO
•
•
Kinesiska motorcykelindustrin:
Växte från ca 3 miljoner enheter 1993 till >26 miljoner
2011 (= >50% av världens produktion - trots förbudet
mot motorcyklar i städer)
Har >130 motorcykelmärken
Självorganiserande system - baserat på öppna gränssnitt

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Tack!
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Martin Börjesson
Director Foresight to Insight
Knowit Business Growth AB
martin.borjesson@knowit.se
www.knowit.se
+46 704 262891
@futuramb