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40	
  Issues	
  for	
  the	
  Next	
  Decade	
  |	
  Some	
  Key	
  Insights	
  To	
  Date	
  |	
  16	
  May	
  2015	
  	
...
Looking	
  Forwards	
  
OrganisaGons	
  increasingly	
  want	
  to	
  idenGfy	
  and	
  understand	
  
	
  both	
  the	
  ...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
The	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  is	
  the	
  world’s	
  largest	
  open	
  foresight	
  program	
  	
  
th...
Future	
  Agenda	
  1.0	
  Top	
  Insights	
  for	
  2020	
  
From	
  the	
  2010	
  program,	
  50+	
  key	
  insights	
 ...
Future	
  Agenda	
  in	
  Numbers	
  
The	
  first	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  programme	
  engaged	
  many	
  views	
  in	
  25...
As	
  we	
  reach	
  the	
  half-­‐way	
  point	
  of	
  the	
  Future	
  Agenda	
  programme	
  with	
  	
  
50	
  events...
Imbalanced	
  PopulaLon	
  Growth	
  
By	
  2025	
  the	
  populaGon	
  will	
  have	
  grown	
  by	
  1bn	
  with	
  many...
Lifespan	
  Limits	
  	
  
	
  On	
  a	
  global	
  scale,	
  life	
  expectancies	
  in	
  developed	
  regions	
  are	
 ...
Working	
  Longer	
  
	
  For	
  those	
  who	
  have	
  inadequate	
  reGrement	
  savings,	
  the	
  most	
  obvious	
  ...
Mega	
  City	
  States	
  
Increasing	
  compeGGon	
  between	
  ciGes	
  over-­‐rides	
  naGonal	
  	
  
prioriGes	
  as	...
Public-­‐Private	
  City	
  Partnerships	
  
To	
  collecGvely	
  address	
  major	
  urban	
  challenges,	
  as	
  shown	...
FloaLng	
  CiLes?	
  
Climate	
  change	
  poses	
  a	
  worrying	
  challenge	
  for	
  ciGes.	
  50%	
  of	
  ciGes	
  a...
Personally	
  Curated	
  Data	
  
‘Personally	
  curated’	
  sources	
  of	
  data	
  will	
  have	
  higher	
  value	
  s...
Data	
  Marketplaces	
  	
  
Data	
  is	
  a	
  currency,	
  it	
  has	
  a	
  value	
  and	
  a	
  price,	
  and	
  there...
Paying	
  for	
  Privacy	
  	
  
We	
  do	
  not	
  currently	
  understand	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  our	
  data	
  or	
  ...
Sharing	
  Secrets	
  
In	
  exchange	
  for	
  beKer	
  service	
  or	
  an	
  improved	
  quality	
  of	
  life,	
  	
  ...
School	
  in	
  the	
  Cloud	
  
In	
  the	
  networked	
  age,	
  we	
  need	
  schools,	
  not	
  structured	
  like	
  ...
Self-­‐Organised	
  Learning	
  
By	
  removing	
  adult	
  restricGons	
  on	
  educaGon	
  and	
  providing	
  children	...
Teachers	
  as	
  Coaches	
  
Future	
  teachers	
  will	
  focus	
  less	
  on	
  content	
  transfer	
  and	
  more	
  o...
The	
  Role	
  of	
  Private	
  EducaLon	
  
Reshaping	
  educaGon	
  in	
  LaGn	
  America	
  is	
  focused	
  on	
  impr...
ReinvenLng	
  Diets	
  
	
  Our	
  relaGonship	
  with	
  food	
  must	
  change.	
  We	
  will	
  need	
  to	
  reinvent	...
Reducing	
  Food	
  Waste	
  
Postharvest	
  losses	
  of	
  plant	
  foods	
  can	
  be	
  substanGal	
  in	
  developing...
Feeding	
  the	
  BoTom	
  of	
  the	
  Pyramid	
  
Achieving	
  and	
  maintaining	
  lower	
  prices	
  and	
  more	
  e...
Changing	
  Role	
  of	
  Government	
  
EnGGes	
  compete	
  with	
  the	
  state	
  for	
  influence	
  -­‐	
  environmen...
Hard	
  Choices	
  
In	
  a	
  society	
  where	
  there	
  is	
  a	
  widening	
  gulf	
  between	
  rich	
  and	
  poor,...
Less	
  Carbon	
  -­‐	
  More	
  Energy	
  
The	
  climate	
  change	
  debate	
  is	
  serious	
  but	
  needs	
  to	
  b...
Rise	
  of	
  the	
  Micro-­‐Actors	
  
We	
  can	
  see	
  a	
  blurring	
  of	
  energy	
  consumers	
  and	
  producers...
Moving	
  Water	
  	
  
Water	
  sources	
  will	
  conGnue	
  to	
  suffer	
  from	
  over-­‐extracGon:	
  Mining	
  and	
...
Reaching	
  the	
  Limits	
  
Growing	
  populaGons	
  and	
  rising	
  consumer	
  demand	
  related	
  to	
  higher	
  
...
Sources	
  of	
  Global	
  SoluLons	
  
Global	
  healthcare	
  affordability	
  will	
  not	
  come	
  from	
  the	
  Unit...
24/7	
  Stress	
  Network	
  
The	
  millennial	
  generaGon	
  is	
  more	
  stressed	
  than	
  any	
  other,	
  living	...
The	
  End	
  of	
  Cash?	
  
	
  All	
  the	
  evidence	
  suggests	
  that	
  the	
  use	
  of	
  cash	
  is	
  in	
  de...
ProliferaLon	
  of	
  Currencies	
  
People	
  will	
  increasingly	
  use	
  mulGple	
  forms	
  of	
  currency	
  in	
  ...
TransacLonal	
  vs.	
  EmoLonal	
  	
  
Seamless	
  payments	
  will	
  distance	
  consumers	
  from	
  understanding	
  ...
The	
  Human	
  Touch	
  
In	
  a	
  world	
  of	
  global	
  and	
  digital	
  markeGng	
  and	
  consumpGon,	
  	
  
con...
Eastern	
  Centricity	
  
With	
  China’s	
  500m-­‐strong	
  middle-­‐class	
  burgeoning	
  and	
  	
  
travel	
  barrie...
Security	
  vs.	
  Convenience	
  	
  
The	
  balance	
  between	
  convenience	
  and	
  security	
  with	
  border	
  co...
Wi-­‐fi	
  Global	
  Nomads	
  
For	
  some	
  in	
  the	
  knowledge	
  economy	
  the	
  potenGal	
  for	
  conGnuous	
  ...
Access	
  Unleashed	
  	
  
A	
  shim	
  of	
  focus	
  from	
  access	
  to	
  one	
  of	
  mobility	
  is	
  underpinned...
Being	
  Part	
  of	
  Society	
  
Is	
  the	
  purpose	
  of	
  the	
  corporaGon	
  just	
  about	
  pursuing	
  profits,...
Measuring	
  Wealth	
  in	
  a	
  More	
  Human	
  Way	
  	
  
As	
  we	
  evolve	
  from	
  seeing	
  progress	
  purely	...
Inequality	
  On	
  The	
  Agenda	
  
Inequality	
  has	
  become	
  a	
  concern	
  not	
  just	
  for	
  developing	
  c...
Increasing	
  Tensions	
  	
  
It	
  will	
  be	
  very	
  difficult	
  to	
  revert	
  the	
  trend	
  of	
  stagnant	
  gr...
Skill	
  ConcentraLons	
  
The	
  growth	
  of	
  the	
  nomadic	
  global	
  elite	
  ciGzenship	
  accelerates	
  the	
 ...
Hollowing	
  Out	
  the	
  Professions	
  
Technology	
  is	
  challenging	
  the	
  white-­‐collar	
  worker	
  and	
  au...
Knowing	
  The	
  Unknown	
  
By	
  2020	
  people	
  and	
  connected	
  objects	
  will	
  generate	
  40	
  trillion	
 ...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
 ...
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40 issues for the next decade insights to date - 16 05 15

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Half way through the future agenda project we have now run around 50 events in many different countries. Over 400 new insights on the key shifts for the next decade have been added to the mix of many have been discussed in multiple regions. This is a selection of 40 of the key insights that are gaining strong traction with different individuals, groups and organisations around the world.

Publié dans : Business

40 issues for the next decade insights to date - 16 05 15

  1. 1. 40  Issues  for  the  Next  Decade  |  Some  Key  Insights  To  Date  |  16  May  2015     Future  Agenda  2.0  |  The  World  in  2025  
  2. 2. Looking  Forwards   OrganisaGons  increasingly  want  to  idenGfy  and  understand    both  the  anGcipated  and  unexpected  changes     so  that  they  can  be  beKer  prepared  for  the  future.  
  3. 3. Future  Agenda   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  program     that  accesses  mulGple  views  of  the  next  decade  from  around  the     world  so  all  can  be  beKer  informed  and  sGmulate  innovaGon.  
  4. 4. Future  Agenda  1.0  Top  Insights  for  2020   From  the  2010  program,  50+  key  insights  on  the  next  decade  were     shared  widely  via  books  and  online  and  have  been  extensively     used  by  many  organisaGons  around  the  world.    
  5. 5. Future  Agenda  in  Numbers   The  first  Future  Agenda  programme  engaged  many  views  in  25  countries.   Future  Agenda  2.0  is  doubling  the  face-­‐to-­‐face  interacGon,  engaging  directly   with  100,000  consumers  and  raising  online  sharing,  debate  and  discussion.   Future  Agenda  1.0     1  HOST     16  TOPICS   25  COUNTRIES   50  WORKSHOPS   1500  ORGANISATIONS   Future  Agenda  2.0     35  HOSTS   20  TOPICS   50  CITIES   100  WORKSHOPS   2500  ORGANISATIONS  
  6. 6. As  we  reach  the  half-­‐way  point  of  the  Future  Agenda  programme  with     50  events  completed,  we  have  over  400  new  insights  on  the  next  decade.     Here  are  40  that  are  engaging  people  and  organisaGons  around  the  world.  
  7. 7. Imbalanced  PopulaLon  Growth   By  2025  the  populaGon  will  have  grown  by  1bn  with  many  of     us  living  longer:  A  good  number  of  us  will  be  in  marginal  regions     that  are  unable  to  accommodate  extra  growth.  
  8. 8. Lifespan  Limits      On  a  global  scale,  life  expectancies  in  developed  regions  are  conGnuing  to  rise   in  the  21st  century  and,  although  most  people  assume  that  there  are  biological   limits  on  life  span,  so  far  there  is  liKle  evidence  that  we  are  approaching  them.  
  9. 9. Working  Longer    For  those  who  have  inadequate  reGrement  savings,  the  most  obvious     soluGon  is  to  work  longer.  One  major  potenGal  barrier,  however,     is  that  employers  remain  ambivalent  about  older  workers.    
  10. 10. Mega  City  States   Increasing  compeGGon  between  ciGes  over-­‐rides  naGonal     prioriGes  as  mayors  lead  bold  iniGaGves  to  place  their     ciGes  at  the  forefront  of  the  global  stage.  
  11. 11. Public-­‐Private  City  Partnerships   To  collecGvely  address  major  urban  challenges,  as  shown  by  Medellin  in   Colombia,  governments  increasingly  openly  collaborate  with  business  to   improve  the  insGtuGonal  fabric  of  ciGes  as  well  as  core  infrastructure.    
  12. 12. FloaLng  CiLes?   Climate  change  poses  a  worrying  challenge  for  ciGes.  50%  of  ciGes  are     dealing  with  its  effects,  and  nearly  all  are  at  risk.  Over  90%  of  all  urban  areas   are  coastal,  puang  most  major  ciGes  on  the  planet  at  risk  of  flooding.    
  13. 13. Personally  Curated  Data   ‘Personally  curated’  sources  of  data  will  have  higher  value  simply  due  to  the   fact  that  they  will  represent  the  actual  wishes  and  desires  of  an  individual,   rather  than  the  presumed  wishes  and  desires  based  on  derived  data.    
  14. 14. Data  Marketplaces     Data  is  a  currency,  it  has  a  value  and  a  price,  and  therefore  requires  a     market  place.  An  ecosystem  for  trading  data  is  emerging  -­‐  anything     that  is  informaGon  will  be  represented  in  new  data  marketplaces.    
  15. 15. Paying  for  Privacy     We  do  not  currently  understand  the  value  of  our  data  or  how  it  is     being  used  and  so  are  giving  it  away.  In  the  future  we  might  be  willing     to  pay  more  for  our  privacy  than  the  data  we  share.    
  16. 16. Sharing  Secrets   In  exchange  for  beKer  service  or  an  improved  quality  of  life,     we  increasingly  recognise  exactly  what  personal  informaGon     we  are  prepared  to  share  and  who  to  share  it  with.  
  17. 17. School  in  the  Cloud   In  the  networked  age,  we  need  schools,  not  structured  like  factories,     but  like  clouds.  We  know  the  way  we  will  work  in  the  future  will  change.   Therefore  the  way  we  are  educated  and  learn  must  change.  
  18. 18. Self-­‐Organised  Learning   By  removing  adult  restricGons  on  educaGon  and  providing  children     with  Internet  access  and  on-­‐line  support  and  encouragement,     children  are  able  to  self-­‐organise  and  learn.  
  19. 19. Teachers  as  Coaches   Future  teachers  will  focus  less  on  content  transfer  and  more  on  facilitaGng   good  learning  -­‐  coaching  students  to  become  beKer  thinkers  and  decision   makers  is  the  priority:  Many  teachers’  status  in  society  rises.  
  20. 20. The  Role  of  Private  EducaLon   Reshaping  educaGon  in  LaGn  America  is  focused  on  improving  policies  and   changing  aatudes  towards  learning.  Integral  within  this  is  the  role  of  private   educaGon  in  seang  standards  –  that  extend  beyond  just  the  wealthy.  
  21. 21. ReinvenLng  Diets    Our  relaGonship  with  food  must  change.  We  will  need  to  reinvent  our  diets  to   meet  our  nutriGonal  requirements  for  opGmal  health  and  in  so  doing  consume   fewer  calories  and  less  meat:  We  must  be  prepared  to  pay  realisGc  prices.  
  22. 22. Reducing  Food  Waste   Postharvest  losses  of  plant  foods  can  be  substanGal  in  developing  countries   and  amount  to  30-­‐50%  of  producGon.  In  developed  countries  we  throw  away  a   similar  proporGon.  The  combined  loss  would  feed  about  3  billion  people.  
  23. 23. Feeding  the  BoTom  of  the  Pyramid   Achieving  and  maintaining  lower  prices  and  more  efficient  large  scale   distribuGon  to  and  within  ciGes  is  a  social  priority.  Balancing  this  with  higher   safety  standards  and  food  service  costs  is  however  a  challenge  for  some.  
  24. 24. Changing  Role  of  Government   EnGGes  compete  with  the  state  for  influence  -­‐  environmental,  human  rights,   and  other  acGvist  NGOs  –  and  operate  at  many  levels  of  government  around   the  world.  This  new  dynamic  changes  the  role  of  the  state.    
  25. 25. Hard  Choices   In  a  society  where  there  is  a  widening  gulf  between  rich  and  poor,     the  rich  may  live  increasingly  separate  lives  and     provide  for  their  own  “public  services”.  
  26. 26. Less  Carbon  -­‐  More  Energy   The  climate  change  debate  is  serious  but  needs  to  be  broader,     focused  not  solely  on  reducing  CO2  emissions,  but  on  developing     a  low  carbon,  high-­‐energy  future  to  ensure  prosperity  for  all.    
  27. 27. Rise  of  the  Micro-­‐Actors   We  can  see  a  blurring  of  energy  consumers  and  producers  –  to  ‘prosumers’   who  do  both.  Hence  a  move  to  mulGple  micro-­‐actors  working  individually  and   collecGvely  -­‐  supported  by  new  technological  developments,  including  storage.    
  28. 28. Moving  Water     Water  sources  will  conGnue  to  suffer  from  over-­‐extracGon:  Mining  and  other   acGviGes  will  move  into  our  water  supply  catchments.  This  means  we  will  need   to  move  water  long  distances  in  Gmes  of  drought  to  services  exisGng  ciGes.  
  29. 29. Reaching  the  Limits   Growing  populaGons  and  rising  consumer  demand  related  to  higher   standards  of  living  across  all  socieGes  are  increasing  consumpGon  of   resources  and  we  are  in  danger  of  exceeding  the  Earth’s  natural  thresholds.  
  30. 30. Sources  of  Global  SoluLons   Global  healthcare  affordability  will  not  come  from  the  United  States…  but   rather  from  those  naGons  of  the  world  that  have  liKle  today  and  have  no   choice  but  to  perform  at  the  highest  levels  possible  in  the  future.  
  31. 31. 24/7  Stress  Network   The  millennial  generaGon  is  more  stressed  than  any  other,  living  as  it  does  in    a  24/7,  culturally  diverse,  increasingly  urban  world.    Looking  ahead  there  will   be  a  need  to  provide  a  personalised,  community-­‐based  support  network.  
  32. 32. The  End  of  Cash?    All  the  evidence  suggests  that  the  use  of  cash  is  in  decline  across  the     globe.  Cash  takes  Gme  to  get  at,  is  riskier  to  carry,  and  by     most  esGmates,  cash  costs  society  as  much  as  1.5%  of  GDP.  
  33. 33. ProliferaLon  of  Currencies   People  will  increasingly  use  mulGple  forms  of  currency  in  different     contexts:  alongside  naGonal  legal  tender,  we  will  see  more  local     and  crypto-­‐currencies  –  many  decoupled  from  exisGng  systems.  
  34. 34. TransacLonal  vs.  EmoLonal     Seamless  payments  will  distance  consumers  from  understanding     monetary  value.  Brands  will  have  to  reconsider  the  way  they  connect     to  customers  providing  more  holisGc  and  emoGonal  value.  
  35. 35. The  Human  Touch   In  a  world  of  global  and  digital  markeGng  and  consumpGon,     consumers  will  increasingly  favour  those  brands  that  can  offer  more     emoGonal  engagements,  and  specifically  human-­‐to-­‐human  contact.  
  36. 36. Eastern  Centricity   With  China’s  500m-­‐strong  middle-­‐class  burgeoning  and     travel  barriers  diminishing,  Western  and  Eastern  cultures     meet  and  feed  off  one  another,  shiming  global  norms.  
  37. 37. Security  vs.  Convenience     The  balance  between  convenience  and  security  with  border  controls  coming   under  increasing  strain  as  they  deal  with  huge  volumes  of  people  travelling   internaGonally  at  a  Gme  when  fears  around  global  security  are  high.  
  38. 38. Wi-­‐fi  Global  Nomads   For  some  in  the  knowledge  economy  the  potenGal  for  conGnuous  travel,   blended  with  part-­‐Gme  work,  is  focused  on  ‘wi-­‐fi  hopping’  for  regular  access    to  high-­‐speed  connecGvity  -­‐  no  maKer  where  in  the  world  they  are.  
  39. 39. Access  Unleashed     A  shim  of  focus  from  access  to  one  of  mobility  is  underpinned  by  both  an   increase  in  online  interacGon  and  a  decrease  in  personal  transport.  This  shim     in  focus  leads  to  more  technology-­‐enabled  business  model  innovaGons.  
  40. 40. Being  Part  of  Society   Is  the  purpose  of  the  corporaGon  just  about  pursuing  profits,     or  does  it  have  a  broader  responsibility  to  produce  socially  beneficial     outcomes  and  be  a  part  of  society  rather  than  apart  from  it?    
  41. 41. Measuring  Wealth  in  a  More  Human  Way     As  we  evolve  from  seeing  progress  purely  as  growth  of  GDP  and  income  per   capita  to  a  more  holisGc  understanding  and  measurement  of  wealth,  the   metrics  by  which  we  judge  success  will  have  to  be  reinvented.  
  42. 42. Inequality  On  The  Agenda   Inequality  has  become  a  concern  not  just  for  developing  countries  but  also  for   those  in  the  West:  The  majority  believe  the  most  pressing  problem  is  inequality   of  wealth  as  well  as  unequal  access  to  health  and  digital  connecGvity.  
  43. 43. Increasing  Tensions     It  will  be  very  difficult  to  revert  the  trend  of  stagnant  growth  and  high   inequality  that  is  seen  in  many  of  the  richest  economies  leading  to     increasing  poliGcal  and  societal  tensions  and  potenGal  flash  points.  
  44. 44. Skill  ConcentraLons   The  growth  of  the  nomadic  global  elite  ciGzenship  accelerates  the   concentraGon  of  the  high-­‐skill  /  high-­‐reward  opportuniGes  within  a  select     group  of  globally-­‐connected  ciGzens,  who  move  ahead  of  the  urban  pack.  
  45. 45. Hollowing  Out  the  Professions   Technology  is  challenging  the  white-­‐collar  worker  and  automaGng  both     middle  and  high-­‐end  jobs.  The  future  will  see  fewer  accountants,  lawyers    and  doctors  and  a  hollowing  out  of  the  previously  ‘safe’  professions.  
  46. 46. Knowing  The  Unknown   By  2020  people  and  connected  objects  will  generate  40  trillion  gigabytes  of   data  that  will  have  an  impact  on  daily  life  in  one  way  or  another.  This  data  will   make  known  about  us  things  that  were  previously  unknown  or  unknowable.  
  47. 47. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org  

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