This is the opening keynote for a conference on Rethinking the Lebanese Economy for 2025 taking place in Beirut on 3 June 2016. Drawing on global and regional insights from last year's workshops it provides views on three topics: How the world will have changed by 2025 Questions that are being asked of the Middle East Some potential opportunities for Lebanon. We are not experts in the Middle East nor economic growth so have leaned on and built on the views of those we have met and connected with during the Future Agenda programme. We hope that we have represented your perspectives accurately.

1.
The
World
in
2025
Insights
from
Mul0ple
Expert
Discussions
Poten1al
Opportuni1es
for
Lebanon
|
3
June
2016
The
world’s
leading
open
foresight
program

2.
This
Talk
Covers
Three
Topics
The
World
in
2025
-­‐
Insights
from
120
Discussions
Some
Global
Ques1ons
about
the
Middle
East
Poten1al
Opportuni1es
for
Lebanon

3.
The
World
in
2025
|
Insights
from
Mul0ple
Expert
Discussions

4.
Future
Agenda
The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
program
that
accesses
mul0ple
views
of
the
next
decade
so
we
can
all
be
beGer
informed
and
s0mulate
innova0on.

5.
Looking
Forwards
Organisa0ons
increasingly
want
to
iden0fy
and
understand
both
the
an0cipated
and
unexpected
changes
so
that
they
can
be
beGer
prepared
for
the
future.

6.
Future
Agenda
2.0
Topics
The
second
version
of
the
Future
Agenda
program
took
place
during
2015
and
has
been
addressing
24
topics
via
120
events
in
45
ci0es
in
35
countries
in
partnership
with
50
core
hosts.
Ci0es
Educa0on
Learning
Transport
Collabora0on
Energy
Loyalty
Travel
Company
Faith
Payments
Water
Connec0vity
Food
Privacy
Wealth
Currency
Government
Resources
Work
Ageing
Data
Health
Trade

7.
Future
Agenda
in
Numbers
The
first
Future
Agenda
programme
engaged
a
wide
range
of
views
in
25
countries.
Future
Agenda
2.0
has
doubled
the
face-­‐to-­‐face
interac0on
and
significantly
raised
online
sharing,
debate
and
discussion.
Future
Agenda
1.0
1
HOST
16
TOPICS
25
COUNTRIES
50
WORKSHOPS
1500
ORGANISATIONS
Future
Agenda
2.0
50
HOSTS
24
TOPICS
35
COUNTRIES
120
WORKSHOPS
5000
ORGANISATIONS

8.
Everything
Connected
Over
1
trillion
sensors
are
connected
to
mul0ple
networks:
everything
that
can
benefit
from
a
connec0on
has
one.
We
deliver
10,000x
more
data
100x
more
effec0vely
but
are
concerned
about
the
security
of
the
informa0on
that
flows.

9.
Imbalanced
Popula1on
Growth
A
growing
popula0on
adds
another
billion
people
but
it
is
also
rapidly
ageing:
a
child
born
next
year
will
live
6
months
longer
than
one
born
today.
While
migra0on
helps
to
rebalance,
increasing
dependency
ra0os
challenge
many.

10.
ShiUing
Power
and
Influence
The
centre
of
gravity
of
economic
power
con0nues
shi_ing
eastwards,
back
to
where
it
was
200
years
ago.
Recent
superpowers
seek
to
moderate
the
pace
of
change
but
the
reali0es
of
popula0on
and
resource
loca0ons
are
immoveable.

11.
Affordable
Healthcare
The
escala0ng
cost
of
healthcare
is
further
stressed
by
the
need
to
support
the
old
and
the
chronically
ill.
Spending
20%
of
GDP
on
healthcare
is
seen
as
unsustainable
so
hard
decisions
are
taken
around
budgets
and
priori0es.

12.
Air
Quality
Rising
air
pollu0on
in
many
ci0es
is
killing
people
and
becomes
a
visible
catalyst
for
changing
mind-­‐sets
and
policies
across
health,
energy,
transporta0on
and
urban
design.

13.
Food
Waste
30-­‐50%
of
our
food
is
wasted
either
in
the
supply
chain
or
in
consump0on
and
could
feed
another
3
billion.
Op0mising
distribu0on
and
storage
in
developing
countries
and
enabling
beGer
consumer
informa0on
in
others
could
solve
this.

14.
Intra
City
Collabora1on
Increasing
compe00on
between
ci0es
overrides
na0onal
boundaries
and
drives
change.
They
compete
to
aGract
the
best
but
also
collaborate
to
avoid
the
downside
of
success
–
over-­‐crowding,
under-­‐resourcing
and
pollu0on.

15.
Urban
Obesity
Mass
urbanisa0on,
reduced
ac0vity
and
poor
diets
are
accelera0ng
the
rise
of
obesity.
Levels
of
obesity
in
most
ci0es
are
growing
fast
and
the
associated
healthcare
burden
will
soon
account
for
5%
of
global
GDP.

16.
The
Value
of
Data
As
organisa0ons
try
to
retain
as
much
informa0on
about
their
customers
as
possible,
data
becomes
a
currency
with
a
value
and
a
price.
It
therefore
requires
a
marketplace
where
anything
that
is
informa0on
is
represented.

17.
The
Changing
Nature
of
Privacy
As
privacy
is
a
public
issue,
more
interna0onal
frameworks
seek
to
govern
the
Internet,
protect
the
vulnerable
and
secure
personal
data:
The
balance
between
protec0on,
security,
privacy
and
public
good
is
increasingly
poli0cal.

18.
Ethical
Machines
Automa0on
spreads
beyond
trading
and
managing
systemic
risk.
As
we
approach
technology
singularity,
autonomous
robots
and
smarter
algorithms
make
ethical
judgments
that
impact
life
or
death.

19.
Access
to
Transport
The
widespread
need
for
individuals
to
travel
short
distances
becomes
a
key
feature
of
urban
design
and
regenera0on.
Planners
use
transport
infrastructure
to
influence
social
change
and
lower
carbon
living.

20.
Capitalism
Challenge
Unable
to
shake
issues
like
inequality,
capitalist
socie0es
face
cries
for
change,
structural
challenges
and
technology
enabled
freedoms.
Together
these
re-­‐write
the
rules
and
propose
a
collabora0ve
landscape
of
all
working
together.

21.
Educa1on
Revolu1on
Broader
access
to
improved
educa0on
acts
as
a
major
catalyst
for
empowerment,
sustained
economic
growth,
overcoming
inequality
and
reducing
conflict.
We
need
an
educa0on
system
fit
for
the
digital
revolu0on.

22.
Mass
Engagement
As
the
public
voice
becomes
easier
to
access
and
harder
to
suppress,
leaders
seek
to
engage
to
create,
develop,
secure
and
maintain
legi0macy
for
their
ini0a0ves
and
policies
–
so
further
reducing
their
hierarchical
power.

23.
Accelera1ng
Displacement
Climate
change,
conflict,
resource
shortages,
inequality
and
poli0cal
elites
unable
or
unwilling
to
bring
about
necessary
change
all
trigger
unprecedented
migra0on
to
the
North.
Over
the
next
50
years,
as
many
as
1
billion
people
could
be
on
the
move.

24.
Basic
Sanita1on
Poor
sanita0on
con0nues
to
impact
public
health
and
restrict
social
progress,
par0cularly
for
women.
Governments
and
donor
organisa0ons
priori0se
measurement,
educa0on
and
innova0on
in
a
bid
to
drive
change.

25.
Ci1zen-­‐Centric
Ci1es
Successful
ci0es
will
be
designed
around
the
needs
and
desires
of
increasingly
empowered
and
enabled
ci0zens
-­‐
who
are
expec0ng
personalized
services
from
the
organisa0ons
that
serve
them.

26.
Flooded
Ci1es
The
vast
majority
of
our
ci0es
are
not
prepared
for
flooding.
Many
districts
and
households
can
no
longer
get
flood
insurance
and
are
in
jeopardy.
It’s
going
to
get
worse
before
it
gets
beGer.

27.
Plas1c
Oceans
There
are
increasing
high
levels
of
man-­‐made
pollu0on
in
many
of
the
world’s
seas
and
liGle
actually
disappears.
By
2050
there
will
be
more
plas0c
than
fish
in
the
world’s
oceans.

28.
Some1mes
Nomads
Elec0ve
migra0on,
cheap
travel,
interna0onal
knowledge
sharing
and
increasingly
transient
working
models
create
connected
nomads
who
mix
the
tradi0ons
of
home
with
the
values
and
customs
of
their
host
loca0on.

29.
Working
Longer
People
are
having
to
work
for
longer
to
support
longer
re0rements.
Flexible
working
prac0ces
and
policies
are
emerging,
but
some
employers
con0nue
to
remain
ambivalent
about
older
workers.

30.
Africa
Growth
With
a
land
mass
bigger
than
India,
China,
the
US
and
Europe
combined,
few
doubt
the
scale
of
the
African
con0nent
and
its
resources.
However,
un0l
recently,
only
some
have
seen
it
as
the
growth
market
that
it
is
fast
becoming.

31.
Declining
Government
Influence
Na0onal
governments’
ability
to
lead
change
comes
under
greater
pressure
from
both
above
and
below
-­‐
mul0na0onal
organisa0ons
increasingly
set
the
rules
while
ci0zens
trust
and
support
local
and
network
based
ac0ons.

32.
Eco-­‐Civilisa1on
Over
the
past
40
years
China
has
grown
apace,
mostly
without
concern
for
long-­‐term
environmental
impacts.
However,
now
faced
with
major
challenges,
a
bright
light
of
sustainable
development
is
emerging.

33.
Digital
Money
Cash
con0nues
to
be
gradually
replaced
by
digital
money,
providing
consumers
with
more
convenience
and
choice
–
and
organisa0ons
with
lower
cost
transac0ons.
Wider
adop0on
enables
new
offers
to
proliferate.

34.
Skills
Concentra1ons
The
need
to
build
and
develop
capabili0es
becomes
increasingly
challenging
for
companies
and
workers
alike.
Those
who
benefit
from
the
high-­‐skill
reward
opportuni0es
remain
a
select
group
who
move
ahead
of
the
urban
pack.

35.
Speed
to
Scale
Greater
global
connec0vity,
growing
consumer
wealth
and
broader
reach
all
combine
to
accelerate
the
0me
to
1bn
customers
and
a
$10bn
valua0on
for
start-­‐ups
and
new
corporate
ventures
alike.

36.
Some
Global
Ques1ons
about
the
Middle
East

37.
Oil
Price
Dependency
The
link
of
GDP
to
oil
price
across
the
Middle
East
is
widely
recognised
and
so,
as
more
alterna0ve
energy
sources
come
on-­‐line,
the
impact
of
sustained
low
global
oil
prices
on
overall
economic
growth
is
a
common
ques0on.

38.
US
Withdrawal
Especially
as
the
presiden0al
elec0on
draws
closer,
with
the
US
no
longer
an
energy
importer
some
are
seeing
a
future
where
it
is
also
no
longer
the
global
policeman:
The
US
withdraws
back
to
an
Atlan0c
/
Pacific
focus,
leaving
regional
vacuums
to
fill.

39.
Turkey
As
Regional
Superpower
While
its
poli0cal
rela0onships
with
the
EU
and
Russia
are
in
flux,
Turkey’s
growing
economic
impact
is
widely
recognised.
Although
there
is
some
uncertainty
around
short
term
direc0on,
its
growing
popula0on
and
future
trading
influence
are
assumed.

40.
Rising
Youth
Unemployment
With
unemployment
rates
over
50%
in
some
na0ons,
access
to
work
is
a
rising
barrier.
Especially
across
North
Africa,
the
Middle
East
and
southern
Europe,
a
lost
genera0on
of
100m
young
people
fails
to
gain
from
global
growth.

41.
Lessons
from
Dubai
With
its
growing
interna0onal
business
reputa0on
and
significance
as
a
global
trade
centre,
many
are
asking
how
far
the
Dubai
model
can
be
replicated,
how
sustainable
it
is
…
or
whether
it
is
really
a
‘one-­‐off’
for
the
region.

42.
Poten1al
Opportuni1es
for
Lebanon

43.
Financial
Services
Growth
Although
some
see
problems
with
a
legacy
of
red
tape,
bureaucracy
and
high
tariffs,
several
believe
that
Lebanon
can
grow
its
banking
sector
and
become
and
easier
place
to
do
business
in
an
increasingly
connected,
global
marketplace.

44.
Regional
Centre
of
Learning
With
high
ranking
universi0es
in
the
mix,
many
view
that
Lebanon
can
build
on
its
exis0ng
recogni0on
to
be
the
21st
Century
centre
of
learning
for
the
Middle
East.
As
others
in
the
region
seek
to
progress,
Lebanon
has
history
and
ambi0on
to
hand.

45.
Crea1ve
Economy
The
crea0ve
economy
helps
to
build
inclusive
and
sustainable
cultures.
What’s
more,
it
generates
wealth.
To
build
scale
it
requires
a
workforce
comfortable
with
collabora0on,
cri0cal
thinking
and
the
ability
to
take
a
risk.

46.
Agriculture
Growth
With
the
highest
propor0on
of
cul0vable
land
per
capita
in
the
Arab
world,
but
many
people
in
food
poverty,
increasing
domes0c
and
export
sales
of
high
value
fruits,
vegetables
and
flowers
will
rely
on
improved
technology,
safety
and
cer0fica0on.

47.
Female
Leadership
Women
in
richer
economies
have
greater
choice,
and
with
it
increased
control
and
influence.
This
con0nues
to
drive
change
and
decision-­‐making,
but
globally
the
baGle
for
female
equality
has
a
long
road
to
travel.

48.
Mass
Medical
Tourism
With
a
good
healthcare
reputa0on
and
many
leading
Lebanese
surgeons,
some
see
a
growing
opportunity
for
medical
tourism
as
low-­‐cost
cardiac
surgery
and
broader
healthcare
provision
join
den0stry
and
cosme0c
surgery
to
have
global
impact.

49.
Tourism
(Re)growth
(Eventually)
Lastly,
many
seem
to
be
hoping
that
tourism
can
once
again
play
a
major
role.
While
some
already
see
an
upturn
soon,
the
impact
of
the
Syrian
crisis,
as
well
as
recent
history,
challenge
expecta0ons
regionally
and
globally.

50.
More
Informa1on
and
Insights
www.futureagenda.org
hGp://tmiltd.com/products/future-­‐agenda
hGp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2

51.
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