After multiple discussions around the world, this is an emerging view on the future of energy that is being shared for further comment and feedback. Events in London, Dubai, Shanghai, Delhi and New York have explored key drivers of change. Other events elsewhere have added in additional perspectives.

1. The
Future
of
Energy
|
The
Emerging
View
Insights
from
Mul0ple
Expert
Discussions
Around
the
World

2. Context
The
benefits
of
energy
cannot
be
forgo?en.
It
is
one
of
the
enablers
of
our
prosperity
and
wellbeing,
and
you
cannot
have
a
func0oning,
produc0ve,
efficient,
modern
economy
without
reliable
energy.

3. Future
Agenda
The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
program
that
accesses
mul0ple
views
of
the
next
decade
so
all
can
be
be?er
informed
and
s0mulate
innova0on.

4. Looking
Forwards
Organisa0ons
increasingly
want
to
iden0fy
and
understand
both
the
an0cipated
and
unexpected
changes
so
that
they
can
be
be?er
prepared
for
the
future.

5. Future
Agenda
1.0
Top
Insights
for
2020
From
the
2010
program,
52
key
insights
on
the
next
decade
were
shared
widely
and
have
been
extensively
used
by
organisa0ons
around
the
world
to
support
strategy
development,
innova0on
and
leadership
thinking.

6. Future
Agenda
in
Numbers
The
first
Future
Agenda
programme
engaged
a
wide
range
of
views
in
25
countries.
Future
Agenda
2.0
has
doubled
the
face-­‐to-­‐face
interac0on
and
significantly
raised
online
sharing,
debate
and
discussion.
Future
Agenda
1.0
1
HOST
16
TOPICS
25
COUNTRIES
50
WORKSHOPS
1500
ORGANISATIONS
Future
Agenda
2.0
50
HOSTS
25
TOPICS
40
COUNTRIES
100+
WORKSHOPS
4500
ORGANISATIONS

7. Future
Agenda
2.0
Topics
The
second
version
of
the
Future
Agenda
program
took
place
during
2015
addressing
20+
topics
via
100+
events
in
50
ci0es
in
40
countries
in
partnership
with
around
50
core
hosts.
Ageing
CiQes
Company
ConnecQvity
Data
EducaQon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work

8. Four
Key
Themes
Across
the
discussions,
issues
related
to
the
energy
system
seem
to
be
touching
upon
and
connec0ng
with
four
interwoven,
themes
with
different
emphasis
in
different
countries.
A
Changing
Landscape
Changing
Atudes
The
Emerging
Energy
System
New
Energy
Challenges

9. A
Changing
Landscape

10. Reaching
the
Limits
Growing
popula0ons
and
rising
consumer
demand
related
to
higher
standards
of
living
across
all
socie0es
are
increasing
consump0on
of
resources
and
we
are
in
danger
of
exceeding
the
Earth’s
natural
thresholds.

11. Consuming
CiQes
Ci0es
consume
75%
of
the
world’s
natural
resources,
and
produce
more
than
60%
of
GHG
emissions.
As
a
result,
while
the
economic
power
of
ci0es
con0nues
to
grow,
they
remain
vulnerable
to
the
by-­‐products
of
their
success.

12. Air
Quality
As
more
experience
asthma
and
other
breathing
difficul0es,
urban
air
quality
becomes
a
visible
issue
and
a
major
catalyst
for
change
–
in
transport
policy,
in
energy
source
and
in
city
design.

13. Planetary
Nexuses
More
eco-­‐friendly
opportuni0es,
and
trade-­‐offs,
on
energy
supply
and
use
emerge
from
considering
the
nexuses
of
core
resources
such
as
food,
water,
energy
and
land
with
a
growing
popula0on.
Water
Food
Land
Energy

14. Changing
AVtudes

15. Mass
Engagement
As
the
pressures
of
higher
energy
costs,
the
impacts
of
climate
change
and
the
need
for
universal
access
combine,
shibs
in
behaviour
and
investment
are
driven
by
wider
public
awareness
of
energy
issues.

16. ShiX
in
The
Investment
Landscape
As
renewable
/
storage
technologies
become
cost
compe00ve
we
may
see
a
shib
in
investment
sen0ment
towards
cleaner
energy
solu0ons
based
more
on
poten0al
financial
returns
rather
than
on
the
carbon
vs.
climate
debate.

17. Incumbent
Blockers
Several
large,
well-­‐established
organisa0ons
con0nue
to
seek
to
prevent
change
by
arguing
for
short-­‐term
incremental
shibs
rather
than
wider,
more
collabora0ve
system-­‐based
change
that
may
benefit
society
in
the
long-­‐term.

18. True
Cost
Products
and
Services
Rising
consumer
awareness
and
demands
for
transparency
mean
that
product
offers
reflect
true
costs
of
produc0on
and
resource
extrac0on.
‘Externali0es’
throughout
value
chains
become
‘internali0es’
-­‐
changing
the
way
we
think
about
pricing.

19. The
Emerging
Energy
System

20. Extended
Period
of
TransiQon
An
extended
period
of
co-­‐evolu0on
and
co-­‐existence
of
renewables
and
fossil
fuels
is
likely
as
new
energy
infrastructures
supplement
or
supplant
old.

21. Technology
Shaping
the
Market
The
cost
compe00veness
of
new
technologies
leads
to
the
development
of
new
policies
and
business
models
that
enable
the
accelera0on
of
renewables,
growth
in
distributed
genera0on
and
a
shib
to
a
lower
carbon
energy
mix.

22. Infrastructure
for
the
Future?
We
will
see
a
transi0on
from
aged
to
new
infrastructures
designed
to
manage
and
distribute
energy
from
diverse
sources
of
power
genera0on.
A
ques0on
is
whether
this
will
leave
a
new
legacy
problem
for
the
next
genera0on.

23. No
Nukes
to
Go
Nukes
More
see
nuclear
energy
as
a
significant
piece
of
the
future
energy
mix
-­‐
driven
by
collec0ve
inac0on
on
the
need
to
transi0on
away
from
fossil
fuels.
But
many
are
unprepared
with
regard
to
skills,
policy
and
public
debate.

24. Hydro
Revival
In
response
to
rising
CO2
and
pollu0on
as
well
as
associated
health
concerns,
China
will
con0nue
to
influence
the
funding
and
willingness
to
build
large-­‐scale
hydro
solu0ons,
especially
in
the
developing
world.

25. Leapfrogging
to
a
Low
Carbon
Future
Driven
by
technological
improvements
in
the
low
carbon
energy
sector,
developing
countries
can
leapfrog
their
way
into
lower
carbon
economies
without
passing
through
an
intense
fossil
fuels
phase.

26. Business
InvesQng
in
Renewables
Businesses
increasingly
invests
in
renewable
energy
projects
to
reduce
its
carbon
footprint
and
price
vola0lity
-­‐
and
ensure
supply
security.
This
will
provide
greater
certainty
for
the
renewable
industry
compared
to
relying
on
government
subsidies

27. Powering
the
Cloud
The
rapid
con0nued
growth
in
the
ICT
sector
leads
to
it
having
a
carbon
footprint
larger
than
the
global
avia0on
industry.
A
typical
data
centre
is
40
0mes
more
energy
intensive
than
and
office
building

28. From
China
to
the
World
The
next
decade
is
likely
to
see
China
becoming
a
key
player
in
world
energy
markets,
expor0ng
skills,
expor0ng
technologies
and,
following
liberalisa0on
of
the
internal
energy
market,
financing
overseas
energy
projects.

29. Energy
Efficiency
–
The
Invisible
Fuel
The
cheapest
and
cleanest
form
of
energy
is
the
energy
we
don’t
use.
Adop0on
of
effec0ve
energy
efficiency
measures
and
careful
management
of
energy
demand
will
play
a
key
role
in
crea0ng
a
clean,
low
cost
energy
future.

30. Green
Design
Reshapes
Lifestyles
From
eco-­‐friendly
but
small-­‐scale
consumer
goods,
to
green
consciousness
at
the
scale
of
city
and
building
planning,
green
design
and
green-­‐designers
are
likely
to
start
reshaping
our
lifestyles
and
changing
our
energy
use.

31. Last
Mile
Efficiency
The
benefits
to
be
gained
from
bringing
the
same
level
of
efficiency
to
the
last
mile
as
there
is
to
the
first
thousand
is
a?rac0ng
a?en0on:
There
will
be
more
focus
on
reducing
inefficiencies
around
the
final
part
of
delivery.

32. Standards
Drive
InnovaQon
The
rate
of
city
building
in
China,
will
lead
to
new
city-­‐building
standards
being
used
to
drive
energy
efficiency
innova0on
among
developers.
This
will
be
eco-­‐friendly
city
experimenta0on,
writ-­‐large.

33. Demand-­‐Driven
Energy
The
energy
system
will
become
more
demand-­‐driven
than
supply-­‐led
as
more
distributed
genera0on
and
renewables
are
included
onto
the
system.
End-­‐user
behaviour
will
also
change
as
be?er
technology
becomes
available.

34. Automated
Trucks
Autonomous
and
driverless
trucks
are
now
star0ng
to
have
impact.
The
vision
of
long-­‐distance
platoons
of
trucks
all
running
on
intelligent
highways
without
drivers
has
been
a
topic
for
some
years...
but
the
reality
is
not
far
away.

35. Declining
Energy
Intensity
As
major
growth
regions
invest
in
lower-­‐carbon
supply
op0ons
and
priori0se
energy
efficiency,
we
see
an
associated
decline
in
energy
intensity
in
the
economy
–
achieving
reduc0ons
of
up
to
10%
over
the
next
decade.

36. Storage
is
Promising
and
Game-­‐changing
There
is
a
lot
of
emphasis
on
the
development
of
storage
technologies.
Besides
solving
the
problem
of
power
intermi?ency
from
renewables,
energy
storage
offers
poten0al
for
the
development
of
a
whole
new
mobile
energy
system.

37. Solar
Houses
A
solar
cost
and
performance
revolu0on
will
reshape
residen0al
energy
provision
and,
coupled
with
be?er
ba?eries,
storage
and
online
connec0vity,
will
thus
transform
the
wider
electricity
system.

38. Distributed
Energy
Supply
Key
developing
economies
invest
heavily
in
lower-­‐carbon,
distributed
energy
with
integrated
storage
to
deliver
more
reliable
and
affordable
power.
This
is
supported
by
be?er
market
pricing
and
smarter
subsidies.

39. Last
Mile
Grid
ConnecQvity
Private
/
public
collabora0ons
give
another
100m
people
in
India
access
to
electricity
via
connec0on
to
the
grid
-­‐
but
250m
people
con0nue
to
use
wood,
diesel
and
kerosene
to
cook
and
light
their
homes.

40. Rise
of
the
Micro-­‐Actors
We
can
see
a
blurring
of
energy
consumers
and
producers
–
to
‘prosumers’
who
do
both.
Hence
a
move
to
mul0ple
micro-­‐actors
working
individually
and
collec0vely
-­‐
supported
by
new
technological
developments,
including
storage.

41. New
Energy
Challenges

42. Changing
Energy
Risk
Profile
The
impact
of
natural
disasters,
wider
acceptance
of
the
need
to
avoid
a
warmer
world
and
increased
risk
of
cyber-­‐crime
to
our
infrastructure
all
lead
to
a
deeper
understanding
of
the
risk
profile
of
different
energy
solu0ons.

43. TransiQon
From
Natural
Gas
to
Renewables
Increasing
investment
on
renewables,
improving
technology,
falling
prices
and
growing
awareness
all
support
transi0on
to
a
low
carbon
future,
but
a
clear
exit
strategy
is
needed
for
natural
gas
as
a
transi0on
fuel
to
renewables.

44. New
Hazards,
New
Protocols
Regulatory
frameworks
and
standards
evolve
to
address
new
kinds
of
energy
hazard
that
are
emerging
from
the
adop0on
of
technologies
such
as
residen0al
ba?eries
for
energy
storage
and
localised,
power
genera0on
schemes.

45. Mind
the
Gap
Outlooks
that
limit
the
increase
in
carbon
emissions
factor
in
a
rapid
expansion
of
carbon
capture
and
storage,
but
there
is
a
real
risk
that
this
may
not
be
achieved.

46. Unclear
AnalyQcal
Models
Current
analy0cal
models
may
not
handle
disrup0ve
elements
entering
the
energy
sector
-­‐
and
so
may
provide
results
that
do
not
fully
reflect
poten0al
shibs
in
the
speed
of
change
and
impacts
of
disrup0ons
and
discon0nui0es.

47. Future
Agenda
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