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Future of Hospitality The Emerging View 09 10 15

After multiple discussions around the world, this is an emerging view on the future of hospitality being shared for further comment and feedback. Events hosted by IHG (Intercontinental Hotels Group) including workshops in London, Dubai, Singapore and New York have explored key drivers of change. Other events elsewhere have added in additional perspectives.

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Future of Hospitality The Emerging View 09 10 15

  1. 1. The Future of Hospitality | The Emerging View Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Around the World
  2. 2. Context Comprising 9.5% of global GDP in 2014, hospitality is a significant industry with the ability to shape markets. It receives much recogni0on, focus and concern from a wide range of individuals, organisa0ons, des0na0ons and governments.
  3. 3. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so all can be bePer informed and s0mulate innova0on.
  4. 4. Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be bePer prepared for the future.
  5. 5. Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organisa0ons around the world, including many in the hospitality sector.
  6. 6. Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-to-face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion. Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 25 TOPICS 40 COUNTRIES 100 WORKSHOPS 2500 ORGANISATIONS
  7. 7. Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program is taking place during 2015 and has been addressing 20 topics via 100 events in 50 ci0es in 40 countries in partnership with around 50 core hosts. Ageing CiQes Company ConnecQvity Data EducaQon Energy Food Government Health Learning Loyalty Payments Privacy Resources Transport Travel Water Wealth Work
  8. 8. Context An ini0al perspec0ve on the Future of Travel kicked off the Future Agenda 2.0 global discussions regarding hospitality taking place through 2015. This summary builds on the ini0al view and has been updated throughout. Ini0al Perspec0ves Q4 2014 Global Discussions Q1/2 2015 Insight Synthesis Q3 2015 Sharing Output Q4 2015
  9. 9. IHG Partnership Future Agenda would like to thank IHG who helped to make these global conversa0ons on Hospitality and the Future of Travel possible, suppor0ng events in many loca0ons around the world. IHG® (InterCon0nental Hotels Group), one of the world’s leading hotel companies, has a broad poraolio of nine hotel brands, including InterCon0nental® Hotels & Resorts, Hotel Indigo®, Crowne Plaza® Hotels & Resorts, Holiday Inn® Hotels & Resorts, Holiday Inn Express®, Staybridge Suites®, Candlewood Suites®, EVEN™ Hotels and HUALUXE® Hotels and Resorts. IHG franchises, leases, manages or owns over 4,700 hotels and 697,000 guest rooms in nearly 100 countries, with almost 1,200 hotels in its development pipeline. IHG is focused on innova0on and uses consumer insights to strengthen its exis0ng brands, and to inform the launch of new brands (HUALUXE® Hotels and Resorts & EVEN™ Hotels) to capture more of the growing demand than its exis0ng brands can achieve.
  10. 10. The Future of Hospitality | The Emerging View This document provides an overview of what we heard from mul0ple expert voices around the world – on the future of hospitality, how the sector is changing, what is driving this change and how it may evolve. Increasingly Borderless World The Hospitality Employer Brave, Sustainable New World New Business Models Sharing Control Importance of Community Being Human
  11. 11. Increasingly Borderless World
  12. 12. Increasingly Borderless World For many, the opportunity for travel and tourism has become more accessible and seamless, opening up markets, borders and experiences. For others who are able to afford travel, or at least more extensive travel, for the first 0me in their lives, the opportunity itself is change enough. Travel across borders will always introduce cultures, behaviours and values. These will at 0mes create market-forming environments and powerful exchanges of cultural learning. At other 0mes, and in some loca0ons, a clash of cultures will be evident. Authen0c and genuine experiences will be sought by some, but at what expense to local communi0es? Eastern growth will influence much in the hospitality space – food & beverage and décor for example – and smart hospitality organisa0ons will expertly demonstrate a healthy blend of east with west.
  13. 13. Increasingly Borderless World
  14. 14. Seamless Cross Border Travel Smart visas, indeed, smart 0cke0ng in general for mass transit provides a tangible way forward in addressing some of the barriers to the seamless growth of cross border visitor numbers.
  15. 15. Doubling of InternaQonal Tourism In 2012 the number of tourists crossing interna0onal borders reached over 1bn. Much of the demand is fuelled by rising household incomes in emerging economies… Interna0onal tourist arrivals are expected to reach 1.8bn by 2030
  16. 16. Cultural Relevant Conundrum In an increasingly global and diverse world how will brands embrace na0onal consciousness and touch consumers whose na0onal iden0ty is disconnected to where they live? How will brands reconnect with the diaspora?
  17. 17. AnQ-Tourism Increasing numbers of tourists descending on tradi0onal des0na0ons will give rise to localised community backlash and inevitable regula0on - perhaps driving travellers to new, more welcoming, des0na0ons.
  18. 18. Chinese Convenience The global travel infrastructure has been built for, and by, western travellers. This will be reimagined for the Chinese - going beyond congee for breakfast to a more subtle understanding of what is ‘convenient’ for Chinese tourists.
  19. 19. Chinese Tourists 150 million outbound Chinese tourists and a total of 500m more mobile Asians will need places to stay in other countries that align bePer with their specific cultural norms and expecta0ons.
  20. 20. Tribal Tourism With global travel increasingly democra0sed, culture clashes are likely, leading to the phenomena of insularity abroad, culture-specific tourist enclaves and prejudice-driven aPempts to aPract some, while discouraging others.
  21. 21. Eastern Centricity With China’s 500m-strong middle-class burgeoning and travel barriers diminishing, Western and Eastern cultures meet and feed off one another, shiring global norms.
  22. 22. Chinese Tourist Demographics More Chinese outbound tourists are expected, but liPle aPen0on has been paid to their demographics. Growth so far has been in the young and wealthy, but the next decade will see a rise of less wealthy and older Chinese tourists.
  23. 23. Global Commuters Communica0ons technologies increasingly allow high-end workers to be more flexible in terms of where they chose to live. Global, and perhaps long-haul, commu0ng will become normal, driving new commuter travel services.
  24. 24. The Hospitality Employer
  25. 25. The Hospitality Employer The hospitality industry is a huge and diverse employer and this workforce is more connected today than ever before. The workforce is also more aware of rights, responsibili0es and opportuni0es. Coupled to this is a growing belief that all organisa0ons, hospitality or otherwise, have a greater role to play with regards to society’s greater good. We can expect the sector to experience its own ‘upgrade’ of staff prac0ces in areas such as training, use of data and dealing with customers – all geared toward an improved guest experience and a more sa0sfied workforce. Technology will play a role as it becomes more engrained in the processes of travel and tourism, for traveller and provider alike. Par0cular groups of emphasis include women as they realise more opportuni0es, migrants who will con0nue to make their mark on economies and ageing popula0ons, as they grow in number (in many countries) and demonstrate leadership in the marke0ng of wisdom.
  26. 26. The Hospitality Employer
  27. 27. BeVer Employers Given that the travel and tourism industry is a huge employer, the development of and 0ghter controls on employment rights are likely to be a significant factor in the future.
  28. 28. SaQsfying a BeVer Educated Workforce As travel industry employees are more educated, increased pressure is placed on management to bePer serve the workforce and their needs. A greater focus on human capital develops leadership and embraces diversity.
  29. 29. Learning to Upgrade A shir occurs in how educa0on is delivered across the service industry globally. Blended learning, bePer brand applica0on and capacity building in HR, results in a more data-led, mul0-skilled workforce and so a bePer guest experience.
  30. 30. 21st Century OrganisaQons The emerging organisa0on feels very different from c20th companies - collabora0ve, crowd-funded, flaPer, human-focused, hyper-specialised, informal, localised, out-sourced, project-based, purpose-led and virtual.
  31. 31. Technology Takeover There is a widespread fear that the rise of robots - or more exactly, a combina0on of compu0ng power, algorithms and robo0cs - will destroy the labour market, even, possibly, the very idea of labour value.
  32. 32. Feminine Spirit Leading organisa0ons, in par0cular those in the West, promote and invest in women, bePer represen0ng the popula0ons that they serve. Many benefit from doing so.
  33. 33. PosiQve ImmigraQon Economists agree that immigra0on is good for economies. Migrants tend to be younger, more enterprising, and economically ac0ve, and their effect on wages, economic growth and tax contribu0ons is almost completely posi0ve.
  34. 34. Good Jobs Companies out-perform through a combina0on of bePer wages, investment in training, and appropriate technological investment to support staff… High value work benefits individuals, businesses, as well as society as a whole.
  35. 35. Making Work Work (for People and Work) We will see a shir in priority from ‘money maPers’ to ‘meaning maPers’. This will lead to the emergence of community and wellbeing managers in organisa0ons and new ways to measure success.
  36. 36. Wisdom Workers Focus is on enabling reinven0on stemming from opportuni0es created by non-linear career paths and innova0on networks, giving rise to the ‘wisdom worker’ - where experience is the cri0cal addi0on to skills and intelligence.
  37. 37. SupporQng the Ageing Workforce As major economies suffer from increasing dependency ra0os, the challenge of suppor0ng an increasingly older workforce demands rethinking of life-long learning and broader acceptance of the cost of part-0me flexible jobs.
  38. 38. Customers Before Shareholders Driven by changing views of their social value, corpora0ons will increasingly seek to focus more on real customer needs and so decrease emphasis on short-term pressure from shareholders.
  39. 39. Brave, Sustainable New World
  40. 40. Brave, Sustainable New World Responsible behaviour and ac0ons permeate the crea0on of a more sustainable hospitality sector – on behalf of providers and travellers alike. From the traveller and guest point of view, a greater awareness is firmly in play. This awareness could well affect when and where they travel, what organisa0ons and brands they engage with and what they do or expect to be done when they arrive. For the industry, responsible behaviour begins with aspects of efficiency waste avoidance and waste reuse. But it certainly does not end here. Many guests will increasingly expect greater transparency in supply chains, the demonstra0on of the supplier making a posi0ve local impact – perhaps with guest involvement – and a fluency in the incorpora0on of green design into the fabric and processes of the experience.
  41. 41. Brave, Sustainable New World
  42. 42. Two Main Challenges There are two main challenges ahead for the development of a robust travel and tourism industry: how to grow further to deliver jobs, exports, economic growth and development, and in doing so, how to manage this sustainably.
  43. 43. PosiQve Local Impact Travellers will base buying decisions not only around comfortable beds, leisure facili0es or cultural aPrac0ons, they will also choose to stay in places where staff are being treated well and the local economy is not being exploited.
  44. 44. More, Not Less Waste While many aspire to a zero waste system, we see growing volumes of waste especially in ci0es, par0cularly food waste – 30% of which is now thrown away every day in Europe.
  45. 45. Digital Transparency Innova0on will drive improvements in resource produc0vity: Digital connec0vity will provide greater transparency on how we use our resources and the environmental, social and financial impact of their use.
  46. 46. The Bio-sphere The bio-sphere will come to be seen as just another resource, albeit one which demands a ‘give and take’ rela0onship rather than simple extrac0on and exploita0on.
  47. 47. Growing Consumer Awareness The dream of affordable travel is being obscured by climate change and a growing awareness among consumers that sustainability and responsible travel are set to impact how we understand, embrace and manage our holiday plans.
  48. 48. Green Design Reshapes Lifestyles From eco-friendly but small-scale consumer goods, to green consciousness at the scale of city and building planning, green design and green-designers are likely to start reshaping our lifestyles and changing our energy use.
  49. 49. Responsible and Inclusive Look out for growth in travel focused on learning about, experiencing or posi0vely affec0ng ecological conserva0on, economic development and local community improvements, cultural respect or human rights.
  50. 50. Importance of Community
  51. 51. Importance of Community In the tradi0onal sense, community speaks of aPachment to a geographical loca0on and the people within that locale. For travellers, this defini0on holds much meaning as some will do their best to leave the beaten path and to ‘discover’ a more genuine and authen0c experience. But community has a much broader meaning concerning those who share a common thread, interest, ac0vity, family 0e or friendship. This descrip0on is especially important in today’s phenomenally connected world. Today, community can be more fluid and of the moment, morphing and developing (or disbanding) as the mood and circumstances dictate. What community is not is a market segment, determined by age and which is stable and predictable. Who is in and who is out of the community is determined by the community itself – not by organisa0ons and loyalty plans. And what is key for hospitality providers is knowing when to be a part….and when to stand well clear.
  52. 52. Importance of Community
  53. 53. Community-based Tourism Community-based tourism is on the rise with holidaymakers eschewing the crowded beaches and all-inclusive packages to enjoy a more authen0c experience living in the culture rather than observing it from the outside.
  54. 54. Pop-up Economies Crowd-sourcing will enable ‘pop-up economies’ where communi0es pool resources and so reduce the need for government involvement. The downside is that communi0es create their own iden0ty making “them and us” obvious.
  55. 55. More Niche Groups More alterna0ve groups, niche cults and ideologies bring together like-minded people from across tradi0onal boundaries. Brands adapt to this rise by crea0ng more niche product categories catering for smaller, dispersed 'tribes’.
  56. 56. ‘Bleisure’ and ‘SabbaQcaQon’ Travel con0nues to evolve in line with changing work paPerns and career aspira0ons; being able to work-away, take longer breaks off-grid, and even job-share and job-switch, become significant drivers of future travel offers.
  57. 57. Maturing Millennials Digital na0ves seek authen0c, unique experiences to fit with flexible careers, and balance instant gra0fica0on with civic-mindedness - As they mature and become the dominant travel audience, which mo0va0ons will win out?
  58. 58. MulQ-GeneraQonal Travel Many elect to travel together as mul0-genera0on groups of both families and mixed friends. They look for vaca0ons that keep everyone happy and, as such, stress many systems based on delivering segmented experiences.
  59. 59. Travel Mindsets, Not Segments Through bePer staff training and improved use of connected data, travel organisa0ons are able to target based on situa0ons, not segments, allowing the mindset of the guest – not an age bracket – to drive their experience.
  60. 60. Mass Medical Tourism In key loca0ons where hotel footprints align with the medical facili0es, there will be growing demand for accommoda0on for pa0ents, their families and healthcare professionals.
  61. 61. Live Experiences Live sport and fes0vals are put on a pedestal - aPrac0ng cross-overs with other industries and greater technical innova0on to enhance fan interac0vity and audience engagement.
  62. 62. Sharing Control
  63. 63. Sharing Control Personalisa0on, peer power, aggrega0on, choice, these are all words of immense meaning to travellers and guests. They trumpet the arrival of control that lies with the individual. For organisa0ons, these same words mean a new way of working where some0mes they lead, some0mes they follow. It also means that control and decision-making is shared. With so much individuality in play, it is fair to ask if loyalty s0ll exists. It does, but loyalty con0nues to spread far away from what a brand says it is or does, to that plus what others say about the brand. Trust lies in networks of friends, family and peers and loyalty is present as long as you provide goods and services that travellers and guests want to buy. Here today, gone tomorrow rings very, very true. Technology plays a part as augmented travel enables try-before-you-buy experiences, devices rule the roost and wifi nomads travel as and when it suits them, as long as they can plug in every few days.
  64. 64. Sharing Control
  65. 65. Consumer Power The consumer is likely to gain the upper hand in terms of the power dynamic and principles such as ‘great customer service’ will no longer be a nego0able.
  66. 66. Personalised Choice Consumers enjoy a world where choice is a commodity but where trusted opinions play a cri0cal role in guiding and assis0ng decisions or, for some individuals, reducing choices on their behalf.
  67. 67. Travelers in Control Connec0vity everywhere will redefine research, decision-making, marke0ng and experiences. This leads to a richer environment for travellers and the opportunity for them to ‘make it their own’ including the spontaneous.
  68. 68. Peer Power Aggrega0on occurs in hotel/peer review sites alongside integra0on with consumers’ personal trusted networks. This gives guests advice they can trust and greater consistency of ra0ngs globally.
  69. 69. Device is King, Consumer is Queen The device is the focus of the future – it knows where you are, what you redeem and will consolidate all your informa0on. Travel brands have to understand the ways devices will mediate their rela0onships with customers.
  70. 70. The Composite Consumer Flexible digital iden00es allow consumers to connect with each other even as they connect with brands. Loyal rela0onships will be made not just with individual customers but also with families, couples, and groups of friends.
  71. 71. Diluted Value of Loyalty Consumers will increasingly face the problem of having a wallet fat with loyalty cards. In this scenario, the value of loyalty may become diluted, the consumer may become overloaded, eventually disengaging from loyalty altogether.
  72. 72. Augmented Travel Virtual try-before-you-buy travel experiences, and augmented travel experiences emerge as key offers from innova0ve travel providers - enabling sophis0cated personalisa0on of experiences.
  73. 73. Valuing Time Technology-enabled connec0ons provide more headspace and heart-space that displace the frustra0ons and ‘lost 0me’ that travellers needlessly suffer. This helps them to get more value from their 0me spent travelling.
  74. 74. Wi-fi Global Nomads For some in the knowledge economy the poten0al for con0nuous travel, blended with part-0me work, is focused on ‘wi-fi hopping’for regular access to high-speed connec0vity - no maPer where in the world they are.
  75. 75. Extreme Customer Centricity Customer engagement will become a core func0on that cuts across tradi0onal silos, and helps to focus en0re businesses on the contextual needs and value opportuni0es for different audiences at different stages of a customer journey.
  76. 76. New Business Models
  77. 77. New Business Models The Sharing Economy is a significant industry model that is rewri0ng the rules, par0cularly in hospitality. You don’t need to look any further than AirBnB and Uber to appreciate the power that a sharing dynamic possesses. The matching of unmet needs with underu0lised assets is at the core of sharing. What must also be appreciated is that travellers and guests respond well to organisa0ons that connect them to other organisa0ons. The ability to form and make best use of partnerships will be highly valued. New ways of working will also be inspired by individuals and organisa0ons making good use of brief moments of aPen0on and by the ability to act on upstream knowledge. Short, sharp and accurate ways of assis0ng travellers and guests will be appreciated. Nevertheless, seamless end-to-end experiences are s0ll expected. This not only calls for a significant integra0on effort on behalf of the supplier, but it raises the ques0on of who is liable when things don’t go according to plan.
  78. 78. New Business Models
  79. 79. ConsolidaQon of Travel VerQcals The pull of large industry players aiming to improve efficiencies and the push of market disrup0ons such as AirBnB and Uber lead to increased consolida0on and integra0on within tourism boards, hotel brands, travel agencies etc.
  80. 80. Brand Alliances We will see a set of consumer expecta0ons that brands will no longer be able to deliver alone. Strategic brand alliances, designed to deliver sophis0cated choice and content, to complex consumer needs, are likely to emerge.
  81. 81. The Sharing Economy will be RegulaQon-light Consumers will become more loyal to business models that connect them to other people. Personal rela0onships will dominate - but within the safety of recognised global networks that act as insurance/reassurance for users.
  82. 82. 10 Seconds of AVenQon Increased consumer choices and channels leave brands figh0ng for 10 seconds of aPen0on. A new paradigm will emerge, based on dynamic, fast-moving, calls to ac0on rather than long-term rela0onships with delayed rewards.
  83. 83. Deeper Loyalty While travellers are used to points, many see the need for deeper rela0onships with the hotels they prefer to visit, rather than a global poraolio that share the same brand. They seek closer rela0onships around their real needs.
  84. 84. Up-Stream Insight Companies and networks have, and act on, very early insight on future ‘intent to travel’ and customise services to suit. Exis0ng hotel brand rela0onships are by-passed by those more ‘in the know’ about guest interests.
  85. 85. Changing Travel MoQvaQons Demographic shirs and technology developments influence when and why we need to travel. Mo0va0ons for work and leisure mobility blur and dynamic pricing and the sharing economy deliver greater efficiency in the system.
  86. 86. Travelling LiabiliQes Integrated, door-to-door travel booking and experiences mean that single travel plaaorm service providers need new models of risk management as they become liable for a wide range of ac0vi0es.
  87. 87. End-to-End Experiences To simplify the customer journey and exploit inefficiencies across the travel eco-system, new technology-led services decouple and disintermediate current providers: New seamless, integrated apps re-bundle the a-la-carte choices.
  88. 88. Being Human
  89. 89. Being Human In a high tech world, do we assume that human contact has disappeared? For some, this isn’t a problem, but for many, the human touch remains key. Problem-solving and personalisa0on remain as areas where it is a cri0cal component. Nevertheless, showing a human side can be more difficult for some organisa0ons as they may fear revealing their less aPrac0ve side. Yet with increasing transparency in play, reveal they must. Being human can also be evident in the kinds of services sought by travellers and guests, or provided by hospitality players. Well-being con0nues to be an important focus area as does the maximisa0on of moments. Space too is an opportunity for human to human connec0on and for the provision of a ‘human’ feel through provision of comfort, security and personalised se{ngs.
  90. 90. Being Human
  91. 91. Dreaming of Humanity The norm will be automa0on: machines will respond to humans who respond to machines. Human interac0on will only be used to problem-solve and provide more personalised and premium services.
  92. 92. The Human Touch In a world of global and digital marke0ng and consump0on, consumers will increasingly favour those brands that can offer more emo0onal engagements, and specifically human-to-human contact.
  93. 93. Love: Warts and All With corporate transparency becoming a necessity, businesses have to address it as both an opportunity and a threat. Successful brands will find ways to take customers with them - even as they reveal their less aPrac0ve sides.
  94. 94. Lengthening RelaQonships With the sector under aPack from outside, hospitality companies see the need for new points of contact that are different from the past: They want to lengthen rela0onships with customers both before and arer the stay.
  95. 95. Maximising Moments Individuals seek to maximise the benefits of moments available to them - whether efficiency, rest, enjoyment or otherwise - regardless of 0mespan and whether the moment was planned or enforced.
  96. 96. Mind, Body and Spirit We will see a growth in travel aimed at improvements in well-being. This will include a reawakening and revisi0ng of local spiritual tradi0ons in countries where travel and travellers have, to now, been associated with modernity.
  97. 97. SupporQng Overwhelmed Travellers With access to seemingly endless informa0on, travellers will con0nue to need help ‘connec0ng the dots’ and filtering. The gathering of useful local and authen0c knowledge from meaningful (human) sources will be key.
  98. 98. Defining My Space Hospitality organisa0ons increasingly op0mise the experience of space – both physically and experien0ally - to help travellers feel comfortable and secure. This results in more memorable, personalised and efficient travel.
  99. 99. QuesQons that emerge
  100. 100. QuesQons that Emerge From these discussions on and around the future of hospitality, there seems to be a number of key ques0ons to be addressed by governments, companies and individuals – some global and some more local or regional in focus. 1.  How will asset-rich hospitality brands strike a balance between the need for crucial investments in staff training, customer service and mee0ng sustainability aims, yet maintain a compe00ve edge with asset-light organisa0ons born of the sharing economy? 2.  In an increasingly technology-led experience, filled with choice, personalisa0on and consumer control, how important will the human touch be and how will it be made manifest? 3.  Hospitality organisa0ons need to deal with increased transparency, less waste and the need for crea0ng posi0ve local impact in order to meet changing regula0ons and consumer expecta0ons. How long do they have and what are the penal0es for ge{ng it wrong? 4.  Will the idea of customer segments s0ll exist in the hospitality industry in 10 years’ 0me? If so, how will this approach adequately encompass regularly changing communi0es? 5.  Will loyalty s0ll be addressed via hospitality loyalty programmes modelled on today? If not, what will they look like? 6.  How will the forces of disrup0ve business models and the need for efficiency pit brands against each other at 0mes and draw them together in other situa0ons? 7.  How will the broad hospitality landscape change and how significant will this change be?
  101. 101. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org