1. 1
The
Future
of
Work
in
Europe
THE FUTURE OF WORK
IN EUROPE
September 2021

3. Contents
Introduction 4
Executive Summary 5
Research Methodology 6
1. Digital Skills 10
2. Soft Skills 16
3. Re-inventing Roles 20
4. Blurring of Employment 24
5. Green Jobs 28
6. Digital Productivity 32
Next Steps 36
Get Involved 37
Appendix: The Future of Work – 30 Foresights 38
Refrences: 44

4. Future
of
Patient
Data
Insights
from
Multiple
Expert
Discussions
Around
the
World
Introduction
This report, commissioned by Amazon’s Public Policy team in Europe, builds on
the outcomes of a significant open foresight study on the Future of Work and
Digital Skills, and identifies six key issues that we believe should be progressed to
build an equitable, digital, nature-positive, and net-zero future for Europe.
To move towards concrete recommendations, progress is required in terms of
both action and policy.
• Action in terms of scaling up existing programmes that are working, and
identifying and creating new programmes to fill gaps.
• Policy to ensure that the necessary legal, regulatory, and incentive structures
are in place at regional, national, and EU levels for individuals, businesses, and
those who support them.

5. As the third decade of the 21st Century progresses,
there have been numerous publications and
statements on the future of work and the potential
impact that new technologies such as AI and
automation will have on the skills, security, and
number of people in work, as well as how they
will interact with each other and the world around
them. We are experiencing fundamental change at
all levels. Indeed, the World Economic Forum (WEF)
concludes that 40 per cent of the core skills in the
average job will change in the next five years. This
presents an extraordinary challenge for us all as we
seek to adapt.
The shock from Covid-19 has amplified the
structural challenges that the wider European
economy, including the UK, is facing. Lockdowns
have already shone a light on the importance of
digitalisation for competitiveness and economic
resilience. Moreover, they have demonstrated that
it is entirely possible to fundamentally and rapidly
change the way we work. At the same time,
the pandemic has accelerated the widening of
inequalities, and exacerbated societal fault lines.
Although nations are traditionally slow to embrace
structural transformation, it is evident to many that
this is needed for society to ensure robust and
sustainable growth.
To prevent a lose-lose scenario — technological
change accompanied by talent shortages, mass
unemployment, and growing inequality — it is critical
that government, business, and citizens all take an
active role in adapting to change. This may be by
creating an enabling environment to support the
existing workforce through reskilling and upskilling
programmes, or by taking personal ownership of a
more proactive approach to lifelong learning.
This interim report shares insight into six key
areas of debate which were prioritised in recent
conversations on the Future of Work and Digital
Skills. It is designed as a stimulus for discussions
that will culminate in a series of online workshops
commencing in September 2021. If you would like
to comment on any of the topics we have identified,
or indeed to join a workshop, please let us know.
The discussions will consider multiple different
views and combine the corporate perspective with
government and stakeholder viewpoints. From this,
we hope to provide a balanced platform for debate
and offer an independent, credible, and impartial
synthesis of how changes may play out, and also
identify some core policy recommendations to assist
better progress.
Executive Summary

6. 6
The
Future
of
Work
in
Europe
Future
of
Patient
Data
Insights
from
Multiple
Expert
Discussions
Around
the
World
Research Methodology
In 2019, a wide range of informed experts from academia, government, business,
public policy, and NGOs were consulted about what they believe to be the key
issues around the future of work and skills. A total of 21 workshops involving
over 325 expert stakeholders were conducted by Future Agenda globally. The
results were then synthesised and used as a stimulus for a further 50 individual
expert interviews.

7. 7
The
Future
of
Work
in
Europe
In 2019, a wide range of informed experts from
academia, government, business, public policy, and
NGOs were consulted about what they believe to be
the key issues around the future of work and skills.
A total of 21 workshops involving over 325 expert
stakeholders were conducted by Future Agenda
globally. The results were then synthesised and
used as a stimulus for a further 50 individual expert
interviews.
This was followed by three core activities in 2020
and early 2021:
1. Future of Work and Digital Skills Open
Foresight
• Initial Perspective: An opening point of view
was developed in partnership with the University
of Bristol School of Management Faculty.
This detailed the most pertinent shifts that are
likely to affect how, where, and why we work,
including discussions on technological progress,
climate change, globalisation, and the challenge
presented by the need to manage an increasingly
ageing population. This was then shared online
for public feedback via SlideShare, LinkedIn, and
other platforms.
• Digital Workshops: The key insights from the
initial perspective were also discussed, prioritised,
and developed within three digital workshops
(one in the UK, one in Brussels, and one in
Poland). These brought together more expert
stakeholders, including policy makers, academics,
NGOs, and corporates. Participants prioritised the
areas that they believed would have the greatest
impact by 2030 and identified those which would
undergo the greatest change. Time was also
spent characterising specific areas, mapping
the probable changes over the next decade,
and highlighting specific recommendations
for government, companies, and training
organisations that might be made as a result.
2. Parallel Workshop Initiatives
In parallel, Future Agenda ran and participated
in two separate initiatives that covered common
ground. These were:
• Conference Board Collaboration: This comprised
ten digital workshops, 8 in Europe, 1 in the US,
and another in SE Asia. Over 200 senior business
leaders collectively addressed the future of work
and several related topics, such as the future of
talent, skills, learning development and leadership,
as well as the impact of the future of data.
• Participation in VISION: This collaborative
EU Research Project on the Future of Training
for Creativity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship
involved 18 institutions across Europe.1
It included
8 digital workshops that brought together key
insights from over 120 expert interviews centred
on 4 primary areas of research: the future of work,
the future of learning, digital transformation, and
social innovation.
3. External Interviews.
Following on from these initiatives, a series of 50
further expert interviews with corporate and NGO
policy makers and academics were undertaken to
gain deeper insight into specific areas of interest.
All those interviewed were encouraged to consider
what the future of work and digital skills will be
in their own area of expertise and responsibility,
and to identify any specific issues which, if further
developed, could become a useful platform for
further exploration in Europe.
This project is an Open Foresight initiative, so all
conversations were held under the Chatham House
Rule, and the output of all discussion is published
under Creative Commons.

8. 8
The
Future
of
Work
in
Europe
Future
of
Patient
Data
Insights
from
Multiple
Expert
Discussions
Around
the
World
Summary Findings
From all the above, thirty primary foresights were
identified. These are all detailed in Appendix and
summarised in the chart below.
The
Future of
Work
Soft
Skills
Digital
Productivity
Reinventing
Roles
Green
Jobs
Digital
Skills
Smarter
Talent Robots as
Colleagues
Immersive
Experiences
Reskilling
and
Upskilling
Personal
Learning
Networks
Agreed
Accreditation
Learning to
be Creative
Human
Touch
Equality and
Diversity
Pace of
Change
Vulnerable
Roles
Working
Longer
Automation
of
Interaction
20 Year
Degree
Projects
Not Jobs
Attracting
Nomads
Porous
Organisations
Valued Part-
Time Work
Working
Near Home
Next Gen
Expectations
The
Sustainability
Imperative
Skilling for
Resilience
Socially
Valuable
Jobs
Deeper
Collaboration
Productivity
Increase
Data as
an Asset
Speed to
Scale
Smaller 'Big'
Companies
Polarised
Workers
Data and
Digital
Literacy
Blurring of
Employment
Figure 1: Summary of Trends Impacting the Future of Work

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Six Issues for Europe
The analysis has identified the central six issues as
the most important areas to address for Europe to
create a safer, more productive, diverse, and just
work environment that maximises the pace and
efficacy of its ambition to drive a twin (digital and
green) transition. Making swift progress on each
issue will facilitate the delivery of an innovative,
digital, nature-positive, and net-zero economy. A
focus on skills should form the foundations for this
new growth mode.
The six issues are:
1. Digital Skills: Upskilling workers, including those
most in need, with the necessary skills to operate
effectively in a digitally enabled economy.
2. Soft Skills: How best to develop, certify, and
measure the soft skills that are increasingly vital to
future employability
3. Re-inventing Roles: New technology is
influencing the way we work, and workers are
having to adapt to its presence. What skills do
they need to support this change and what is the
best way to provide them?
4. Blurring of Employment: As the workplace
becomes increasingly project focused, being ‘in’
or ‘out of’ work is no longer a clear distinction.
What adjustments do workers, employers,
and governments need to make? What are the
implications of the increasingly fluid nature of
work? And what will be the policy implications?
5. Green Jobs: Investment in green jobs and
technologies will help meet environmental goals,
boost skilled employment, and drive economic
growth and innovation across the EU. However,
although often identified as a priority area, there is
no current alignment around what is, or is not, a
“green job”. It is therefore impossible to measure
progress. Will all jobs be green jobs?
6. Digital Productivity: Digital technologies are
transforming our economies and seem to offer
a vast potential to enhance productivity. What is
required to measure these productivity gains and
ensure that they are secured?

10. 10
The
Future
of
Work
in
Europe
Future
of
Patient
Data
Insights
from
Multiple
Expert
Discussions
Around
the
World
1. Digital Skills
Upskilling workers, including those most in need, with the skills to operate in a
digitally enabled economy
82% of the jobs advertised in the UK in 2020 required digital skills2
44% of EU workers lack basic digital skills3

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Increased automation and emerging technologies,
such as artificial intelligence or robotics, are shaping
today’s economies and changing the way we
work and the way we learn. In a highly competitive
marketplace, there is a growing demand for workers
capable of capitalising on the opportunities this
presents, and a clear need for higher levels of digital
capability across all levels of education and training.
At the same time, the pandemic has accelerated
the trend towards hybrid learning - not least by
making some level of digital skills a prerequisite for
employees to work from home. It has also exposed
and exacerbated existing inequalities between
those who have access to digital technologies and
those who do not. Far too many people, especially
those in rural communities and those who are
vulnerable, do not have significant digital access or
capabilities. A strong and coordinated effort is thus
needed to provide adequate connectivity, and make
appropriate training more affordable, relevant, and
accessible, to give everyone the opportunity to learn
new skills fit for purpose in a digital age.
Across Europe, it is difficult to recruit people
with appropriate technical skills, and a growing
skills gap is emerging (see Figure 2). Some of
the most sought-after positions to be filled are
roles in blockchain, cybersecurity, data analytics,
and healthcare technology. The lack of proficient
candidates in these areas is making it incredibly
tough for employers looking to accelerate their
business growth and keep up with the competition.
But it’s not only high-tech jobs that are affected. The
Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) shows
that 4 out of 10 adults and every third worker in
Europe lack the basic digital skills.4
This at a time
when it is almost impossible to think of any kind of
job, or indeed institutional engagement, which will
not need some level of digital ability over the next
decade. Today, few of us are without a smartphone;
even pensioners are now expected to access social
services online. But ensuring as many people as
possible are technologically capable of using such
devices is critical to delivering economic growth and
ensuring a fully functioning civil society.
What are Digital Skills?
For workers, the term “digital skills” covers a wide
array of competencies and knowledge, so it is hard
be specific about what the future requirements
will be. Basic digital skills, such as the ability to
use Microsoft Office, Google Search, or other
similar software, is now considered an entry-
level requirement for most roles, and as workers
progress up the career ladder and move from
low- to high-skilled jobs, the demand for increased
digital interaction is going to increase. Learning
and being able to adapt to a rapidly changing
work environment has become central to career
progression at every level.
Meantime, across Europe there is a growing
awareness of the widening gap between skills
demand and supply. Participation in digital skills
training at school, in further education and in
apprenticeships has failed to bridge this gap in
recent years. There are also stark gender inequalities
when it comes to both ICT training and employment
in the digital sector. Specific detail around how to
address the problem at local, regional, and national
level is currently lacking, but research from the
Learning and Work Institute in the UK suggests
that rather than government intervention, around
70% of young people expect employers to invest in
teaching them digital skills ‘on the job’. In contrast,
only half of the employers surveyed said they were
able to provide that training. Governments may wish
to address this by ensuring that vocational training,
apprenticeships, and high-quality career counselling
is more widely accessible. To help drive this forward,
policy makers may want to consider tax incentives
and subsidies for companies that hire and train
young people.

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The
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Many people are falling through the gap; however,
there is little available data to identify who and
why. We heard that “40% don’t have basic skills,
but we don’t even know who they are. This is a
big gap in policy, and it is falling between gaps in
existing policies – e.g. digital competence, social,
education.” This lack of data, particularly around
hard-to-reach, low-skilled communities, means
that there is little consensus amongst policymakers
about which particular skills will be necessary for
next generation workers. Many suggest that a clear
overview of the extent of the skills gaps across core
industrial sectors is needed, to define how they are
being addressed and how one region is performing
against others at both national and regional levels.
While there are several existing examples, none
provide the complete picture. For example, the
OECD Skills and Work Dashboard uses 2- to
3-year-old data and is very high level; the European
Skills Index has many varied inputs, but fails to
integrate these in a coherent, accessible format;
the Cedefop Skills Forecast provides projections
of the future trends in employment by sector of
economic activity and occupational group, and
while the LinkedIn Economic Graph does a good
job of highlighting the roles that are in demand and
the skills, roles, and opportunities of over 700m
members, it is only limited to those who are on
LinkedIn (most of whom have a degree), so by
default excludes others.
Some employers are gradually eschewing formal
qualifications and turning instead to systems of their
own, or increasingly using micro credits to provide
timely, relevant training on specific issues. For those
already in work, efforts to classify skills and roles
more systematically around the tasks required,
mean that employees, and sometimes potential
recruits, can more accurately tailor their education
around the target needs. However, for those who
are unemployed, the cost of quality training may
be prohibitive. Also, in practical terms, the absence
of a common accreditation model across myriad
systems can make it difficult to measure and
communicate the skills gained.
Looking ahead, policymakers, regulators, and
educators will need to play a fundamental role
in helping those who are vulnerable, through no
obvious fault of their own, to repurpose their skills
or retrain to acquire new skills. For example, we
heard strong support for an increase in government
funded just-in-time vocational training that could
be integrated into work experience, and therefore
be personalised for individual career paths. “There
is a huge gap between what employers want and
what education is producing. We need to work with
teachers, creating vocational training in modern
warehouses.” There was also advocacy for greater
concerted and collaborative action to help to
deliver this.
As an alternative approach, some argue that rather
than teach people about technologies that are
likely to soon become outdated, the focus should
be on changing the overall approach to learning.
For example, we should switch from exam-based
learning, at the start of a career, to building an
understanding of the need for, and creating the right
environment to enable, lifelong learning from the
get-go. “The skills we need are basic skills. Most
importantly, we need to teach the skill of forever
retraining”. There was universal agreement that, as
more of us work for longer, reskilling and upskilling
- either on a regular basis or as part of lifelong
learning - is expected to become the norm.

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The
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The potential consequences of failing to address the
digital skills challenge are significant. Economically,
Accenture reckons that G20 countries could miss
out on an estimated $11.5 trillion in cumulative
GDP growth by 2028. Socially, it will put additional
strain on hard-pressed government resources,
as those unable to work look to the State for
support. In our Brussels workshop, we also heard
that the digital skills gap is contributing to growing
income inequality: “The changing nature of work is
increasingly having an impact, particularly on the
polarisation of wage levels. The higher earners are
doing very well, while those on lower wages will
increasingly fall further behind.”
Corporate Action
Without significant investment in education, it is
difficult to see how the European talent pool can
remain competitive in the global marketplace. As
the likely post-pandemic government austerity
programmes coincide with the soaring cost of
education, pushing skills training out of reach for
many, necessity means that some large corporates
are stepping in to identify and create their own
pipeline of future talent in order to ensure business
continuity. One told us that “Our belief is that
the pools of talent that we have access to in the
future will be smaller, so we need to find ways to
recruit from what may seem to be a less-engaged,
unemployed community. We need to find a way to
engage and upskill that group and bring them in
to work with us.” But this option is expensive, as
“many organisations don’t invest in education – it’s
not part of productive time. The public and private
sector both expect you to learn on the job.” The
cost of training makes it particularly difficult for
SMEs to compete: “Not enough attention is given
to SME’s who are being left alone to do their own
thing. Policy makers are not spending enough time
focusing on their needs.”
Figure 2: Basic versus advanced digital skills in EU countries5
Note: This figure is based on the Digital Economy and Society Index published by the European Commission. The human
capital dimension of the index measures ‘basic’ internet user skills (users with at least basic digital skills and basic software
skills) and advanced digital skills and development.
Advanced
digital
skills
Basic digital skills
FI
SE
NL
DK
DE
AT
LU
EE
MT
IE
HR
BE
ES
LT
FR
SI
EL
PL
CY
IT PT
RO
BG
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
EU
CZ
HU
LV
SK

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The
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Closing the gap between education and real skills
is widely seen as a priority and is critical to overall
economic growth. So is the need to ensure that
training is available to everyone – not only the lucky
ones who are in employment. Policy makers and
educators, supported by business, have a huge
role to play here. As the WEF has shared: “Policy-
makers, regulators and educators will need to play a
fundamental role in helping those who are displaced
to repurpose their skills or retrain to acquire new
skills, and to invest heavily in the development of
new agile learners in future workforces by tackling
improvements to education and training systems, as
well as updating labour policy to match the realities
of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”
Impact on Individuals
The consequence of all this for individuals
varies. For those who have, or can acquire, the
necessary skills, it simply makes them more
competitive and allows them to pick and choose
in a global marketplace. Indeed, the pandemic has
demonstrated how easy it has become for skilled
individuals to operate as digital nomads - benefitting
from the ability to work anywhere and anytime,
if there is good Wi-Fi available. Regulation has
supported this; one example is the Digital Nomad
Visa. Available in Estonia since August 2020, it
allows eligible location-independent workers to go
to Estonia to live for up to a year.6
The subsequent
Cayman Islands version enables those who are
eligible to cut through restrictions and access a fast-
track 2-year working visa. For others, however, the
challenge to gain and retain employment, let alone
training, is becoming increasingly difficult, as some
companies choose to outsource work to different
geographies where workers are prepared to work
longer hours and for less remuneration. Many we
spoke to were concerned about the long-term
consequence of this. “We have created the notion
of a disposable workforce when we use someone
until their skills are not needed any more - and then
we bring in someone newer, fresher, younger.”
EU Targets and Policy Initiatives
The EU’s Digital Decade has set targets for >80% of
adults to have basic digital skills by 2030 and 20m
ICT specialists (with gender convergence).7
Major policy initiatives include:
• European Skills Agenda8
• Digital Education Action Plan9
• Digital Skills and Jobs Coalition10
Example Business Initiatives
Amazon is helping to make online learning
accessible through initiatives such as Future
Engineer, a comprehensive childhood-to-career
programme designed to inspire, educate, and
enable children and young adults from lower-income
backgrounds to try computer science.11
Microsoft’s YouthSpark is a long-term company-wide
initiative to erase the gap between young workers
who already benefit from skills training, and their
peers who cannot afford nor access it.12
Key Questions
• What actions are required to close the growing
digital skills gap?
• What policy initiatives would enable positive
change?
• What new forms of collaboration would benefit
those who are currently unable to access
digital skills training?

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16. 16
The
Future
of
Work
in
Europe
Future
of
Patient
Data
Insights
from
Multiple
Expert
Discussions
Around
the
World
2. Soft Skills
How best to develop, certify, and measure the soft skills that are increasingly vital
to future employability
Soft skill-intensive occupations will account for two-thirds of
all jobs by 2030.13
The Top 3 missing soft skills (EU and US):14
• Problem solving, critical thinking, innovation and creativity;
• Ability to deal with complexity and ambiguity;
• Communication.

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Although automation will have profound impact
on the way we work in the future, few believe
that machines will replace people any time
soon. Technological progress does undoubtedly
reconfigure jobs, but it also creates them. These
new jobs require new skills which are currently not
widely or effectively taught. Deep reform of the
education system is therefore essential not only to
facilitate the development of digital knowledge and
technical skills, but also the increasingly vital “soft”
skills. Often referred to as the “four Cs of twenty-
first century learning” (critical thinking, creativity,
collaboration, and communication), these are areas
where humans still retain a considerable advantage
over artificially intelligent machines.
Working successfully in digitally intensive jobs clearly
requires more than just technical ability in coding or
programming. Non-cognitive soft skills that allow
people to leverage their uniquely human capabilities
are increasingly recognised as pivotal. It may seem
obvious, but the extent to which someone is open,
conscientious, empathetic, and agreeable helps
to determine their success in life just as much as
their academic or technical ability. What is less
obvious perhaps is that these skills can be learned.
Many point to the growing need to give this greater
attention. “There will always be some tasks that
cannot be automated. We need skills that can
bridge the gap between man and machine, and
can explain things to others. So, we will still need
more people with soft skills for work, despite the
technical profile.” Recent research, shared in the
Harvard Business Review,15
cites key learning and
skills outcomes gained from a liberal arts education
include those rated as most important to employer -
namely, oral communication, critical thinking, ethical
judgment, working effectively in teams, written
communication, and the real-world application of
skills and knowledge. However, this comes at a time
when Governments in both Europe16
and across the
world are cutting funding to liberal arts education.
Soft skills-intensive occupations will account for
around two thirds of all jobs by 2030 (up from
about 50% in 2000).17
Multiple studies show that
they contribute to higher revenue, productivity, and
profitability, and that investment in them will deliver
a significant return on investment (e.g. Deloitte,
Adhvaryu, Haskell). Yet many school leavers, as well
as many in the existing workforce, do not currently
have them. We heard senior executives comment,
“I know for a fact that the current education system
is not providing people with the soft skills that we
require in terms of teamwork, managing ambiguity,
things like that. It’s already clear that some of the
people we are hiring are not able to function in the
type of team environment that we really require.
Are they going to be able to use the right level of
judgement?” Again, many felt that a review of the
current education system is long overdue. “Is the
schools’ agenda fit for purpose? The curriculum
has not been updated to reflect the change in work
and the need for problem-solving skills, and creative
learning.” and “We need far better alignment of
formal education with employer expectations.
Sometimes it’s just shocking. I see people coming
out with top university degrees, with PhDs, applying
for unpaid internships, and I couldn’t have them
work for me because their soft skills are so poor.”
However, despite consensus around the problem,
we heard little agreement on how best to deliver
appropriate training in a coherent manner. A
conundrum for policy makers is how to design and
provide incentives to help overcome this challenge.

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One particular problem, exacerbated during
the pandemic, is that active learning (which the
WEF defines as a priority skill) is best cultivated,
assessed, and developed at work. But if the primary
challenge for workers is to first get a job, how do
they build and demonstrate this ability? And how
can they hone their skill when they are working
remotely? Beyond major corporates, we heard little
appetite for significant private investment in training.
“If you look at a society level, how do you create
those entry level jobs for people, where people
can just start and learn? Most people can learn.
But the problem is, it’s just not worthwhile for us to
take them on. So you just end up with an upside-
down pyramid where there just aren’t enough
entry level jobs.” Policy makers and educationalists
have a role to play here. Research shows that
the handicaps built early in life are difficult, if not
impossible, to remedy later. Therefore, effective
early child development programmes can have
a very significant impact. Ensuring that children
begin to develop the technical, cognitive, and
behavioural skills conducive to high productivity and
flexibility in the work environment from the moment
they start school would deliver huge benefits.
The measurement of these skills is also key. So
some type of formal qualification would be helpful,
particularly as more people join the gig economy
and need to demonstrate their credentials to
prospective job providers on a regular basis.
Qualifications only go so far - applying knowledge is
key. As more organisations hedge their bets about
the future and hire more contractors, tomorrow’s
workers will need to be able to adapt quickly to a
company’s culture, be flexible, resilient, and keeping
an eye on future projects, be confident about their
ability for self-promotion. Few we spoke to welcome
this prospect, “Some people say we should build
empathy and understanding. How can you build
this social fibre if, on the business side, you are
building project by project?” A challenge for many
organisations is, therefore, how to establish the trust
and loyalty in a fragmented environment of their
own creation.
Finally, as many expect significant change
ahead, think, for example, of the impact that the
convergence of climate change, demographic
change, and automation will have, perhaps the
greatest skill of all, and one which has been long
neglected by post-war generations, will be that of
resilience. In a rapidly changing world, the ability
to remain relevant and able to contribute to the
workplace over a lifetime will be no mean feat.
EU Targets and Policy Initiatives
We are not aware of any specific EU targets or
initiatives for soft skills as part of the current 5-year
European Skills Agenda.18
There are, however,
2 notable initiatives contributing to soft skills
knowledge and development in Europe which are
supported by EU funding.
The SoftSkills4.EU project has four aims:19
1.
To identify the key soft skills needed in Europe;
2.
To develop new e-validation and e-learning tools,
using the concept of “open badges“;
3.
To develop a standardised system for
self-evaluation and validation;
4.
To create a strategy for recognition, aimed
towards employers, counsellors, and other
relevant stakeholders.
SkillsMatch EU has identified 36 key Soft Skills
that are needed for successful participation in
society and required to get a good job.20
These Soft
Skills can be classified in four different categories:
self-image and vision of the world; context and
performance related; social interaction and
methodological, intuitive and lateral thinking.

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Example Business Initiative
As part of its AWS Re/Start programme, Amazon
offers a free, full time, 12-weeks sills development
programme that prepares individuals with little or
no technology experience to pursue entry-level
cloud computing positions.21
As well as hard
skills (e.g. AWS Certification) the programme also
provides soft skill training to ensure individuals are
work-ready. The program focuses on unemployed
or underemployed individuals, including military
veterans and their families and young people.
Key Questions
• How best to develop, certify, and measure soft
skills?
• What are the critical soft skills required for
future work in Europe?
• What and where are the key soft-skill gaps?
• How will we measure soft skills attainment?
• How can individuals best learn/become
equipped with soft skills?
• How will we accredit soft skills?
• Where is further research required?

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the
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3. Re-inventing Roles
New technology is influencing the way we work, and workers are having to adapt
to its presence. What skills do they need to support this change and what is the
best way to provide them?
By 2025, 85 million jobs will be displaced, while 97 million new
jobs will be created across 26 countries22
375m jobs to be displaced by automation by 203023

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The scaling of new technologies is radically
reinventing the tasks involved in many jobs. Artificial
intelligence is transforming sectors such as digital
information and communications, financial services,
healthcare, and the transportation industries.
Big data, the Internet of Things, and robotics are
seeing strong adoption in mining and logistics,
while government and the public sector has a
distinctive focus on encryption. As these and other
technologies are applied across the workplace,
some are grappling with the implications for the
corresponding changes to their roles.
Take farming for instance: just a few years ago,
most farmers tended their fields, and drove tractors
and combines to sow and harvest their crops.
Today, it is perfectly possible that the same famers
will use drones and satellite imagery to identify
optimal locations, and then instruct automated
vehicles to remotely manage their land. They are
still farming, but the roles involved are almost
unrecognisable.
Some we spoke to believe that technology will
support humans to do tasks more safely, effectively,
and efficiently, and in so doing will enable the
design of jobs to evolve. They argue that the idea
that technology is going reduce the number of
jobs available is wrong. Quite the reverse; they
suggest that although many roles will change,
they will not disappear. Just as in the first industrial
revolution, when, over a period, blacksmiths
became mechanics, they expect the digitally led
fourth industrial revolution to take away some of the
dreary and repetitive tasks and offer improvement
and reinvention. A doctor, for example, might find
that with technology to help with and accelerate
diagnosis, he or she is able to give patients more
personal support. Similarly, as access to content
is decoupled from the analysis of information, the
role of a teacher may become that of a coach or
mentor, providing advice on how and where best to
learn and apply knowledge, rather than simply how
to accumulate it. The skills and training of being a
teacher will need to evolve just as much as that of a
pharmacist, doctor, or indeed, a farmer, but the role
will remain.
Most believe that humans are expected to retain
their comparative advantage over automation.
Mainly because we have a natural instinct that tells
us that it is better to interact with others in order to
build trust and understanding. Managing, advising,
decision-making, reasoning, communicating, and
interacting will always play a significant role in any
business interaction. However, by understanding
why, how, and where automation can be applied
most effectively, it is possible for organisations to
simultaneously eliminate tasks that stifle creativity,
increase efficiency across the business, and
improve employee wellbeing. Here, younger workers
often have an advantage, as they are more likely to
be willing and able to adapt than their older, more
established colleagues. Growing up with apps,
on-demand content, and social networking in their
pockets, they are accustomed to using technology
for every working process. Unlike older workers,
who may find a change in role uncomfortable and
unwelcome. While certain jobs are disappearing,
others are emerging or growing. The OECD
suggests that 65% of children entering primary
school today will ultimately end up working in areas
that currently don’t exist.
Looking ahead, it may be the case that roles will
change for other reasons, not because of increasing
technological innovation, but rather due to the
make-up of the workforce. Workplaces of the future,
for instance, will need to adapt to an increasingly
ageing population. In Europe, many people will work
10 to 20 years longer than previous generations.
As such, the design of jobs for the older generation
will change. For some, there may be a final career
transition into organisations that have more age-
friendly roles, but for others, keen to remain with
an existing employer, it may well be that their
tasks will evolve to accommodate their physical
capability. Some will need to retrain. Decisions
need to be made around whether this should be
funded by the state, employers, or the individuals

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themselves. While much of this may come from a
range of learning platforms, some may be more
formally structured. At a workshop in Singapore,
one proposal was for a 20-year Master’s degree
that allows individuals to dip in and out of formal
education as and when needed to update and
realign their skills with the prevailing job market.
Whatever the view of potential new roles, many we
spoke to believe the public sector needs to provide
stronger support for reskilling and upskilling for at-
risk or displaced workers. Currently, only 21% of
businesses report being able to make use of public
funds to support their employees through reskilling
and upskilling. The public sector will need to create
incentives for investments in the markets and jobs of
tomorrow; provide stronger safety nets for displaced
workers during job transitions; and to decisively
tackle long-delayed improvements in education and
training systems.
EU Targets and Policy Initiatives
There are no specific targets or Actions directly
focused on this topic as part of the European Skills
Agenda24
nor as part of Europe’s Digital Compass
for the Digital Decade.25
Example Business Initiative
The changing nature of paralegals in Law firms as
AI systems is transforming the way research is
carried out with support from organisations such
as Lexis Nexis.26
Key Questions
• How can we make the most of robots as
colleagues?
• Will AI be more about artificial or augmented
intelligence in the next decade?
• How will we value human roles that are
enhanced with automation?
• Should automation be taxed?

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of
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Discussions
Around
the
World
4. Blurring of Employment
As the workplace becomes increasingly project focused, being ‘in’ or ‘out of’ work
is no longer a clear distinction. What adjustments do workers, employers, and
governments need to make?
A typical Hollywood movie is made by 500 people of whom only
around 10 work for the studio - everyone else is freelance27
50% of US workers are already freelance - by 2030, some estimate
that freelancers will represent about 80% of the global workforce28

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There has been much debate about the pros and
cons of what has come to be known as the gig
economy. Some argue that workers are increasingly
choosing to take jobs that offer few or no rights,
in return for increased flexibility. Economists have
long known that this sort of job flexibility is a key
determinant of health and wellbeing. Yet until
recently, it has been far more common in higher-
paid occupations than lower-paid ones. At the same
time, increasing competition for talent is forcing
organisations to be open and permeable. For them,
building, maintaining, and retaining corporate know-
how remains a pivotal challenge, but so is attracting
and curating flexible, independent workers. Given
this, a priority task for policy makers is to help
redefine workers’ rights for an era of flexibility and
service work.
In 2015, we wrote about the scramble for talent
and the need for organisations to adapt to a world
in which digital nomads can pick and choose the
projects they are prepared to work on, often on
their terms and irrespective of geography. Six years
on, the appetite for fluidity remains. Shifts such as
technological progress, globalisation, an increasingly
ageing population, and more evident climate change
have been influencing corporate decision-making,
including how and where people are employed. This
has created fundamental challenges for business
big and small. Not only can the top talent cherry
pick when and how they work, but in a highly
volatile and increasingly complex landscape, many
organisations must also learn how to manage a
seamless flow of knowledge and ideas to adapt to
changing customer demands, ensure capabilities
are maintained, and keep the doors to innovation
open. All this at a time when the Covid-19 pandemic
has tested the abilities of even the most resilient and
agile companies.
As the long-term consequences become apparent,
shoring up the talent supply chain will be a crucial
part of mitigating risk. Looking ahead, it seems that
only the wealthiest and most attractive organisations
(in the main technology companies) will be able to
retain the loyalty of their employees. For everyone
else, building and preserving corporate know-how
within increasingly porous organisational boundaries
will become a challenge.
A parallel but related shift is how, as a society, we
value, reward, and see part-time work. Traditionally,
in some regions, part-time work has neither had the
same status as a full-time role, nor has it received
the same benefits in terms of taxation treatment,
holiday allowance, or healthcare. This is changing,
and many countries are fixing the technical gaps so
that a portfolio career for some, or having multiple
part-time jobs for others, are both equivalent,
and neither put the individual at a disadvantage.
Moreover, from a societal point of view, the growth
in formalised job-sharing within organisations, large
and small, is set to continue to change perceptions.
Perhaps equally significant here will also be the
gradual adoption, in some countries, of a four-day
working week. New Zealand, Japan, and more
recently, Spain have all now undertaken pilots
supported by the government. Moreover, there is
a shift from bilateral to multinational agreements
to support increased portability of social security
benefits which will aid a more fluid workforce. With a
dual ambition to improve quality of life and increase
productivity, this greater flexibility is also contributing
to the ongoing move away from the 9 to 5, five days
a week view of some roles, towards a far more fluid
approach to work. Lastly, working at home during
the pandemic has, for some, accelerated this shift
event further, and so the distinctions between full-
time, part-time, formal and informal working have
been further eroded. By 2030, many expect that,
in some countries at least, the whole notion of set
hours and days for work within the week is history.

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EU Targets and Policy Initiatives
While there are no specific targets, this topic
intersects with policy related to a number of
principles contained in the EU’s Pillar of Social
Rights (for example: Fair working conditions –
secure and adaptable employment, work life
balance; Social Protection and Inclusion).29
Example Business Initiative
Upwork’s platform serves everyone from
one-person start-ups to 30% of the Fortune 100.30
Its mission is “to create economic opportunities
so people have better lives has taken us so much
further. As a result, we’ve become the world’s work
marketplace where everyday businesses of all sizes
and independent talent from around the globe meet
here to accomplish incredible things.” In 2020, the
Upwork talent community earned over $2.3 billion
on Upwork across more than 10,000 skills.
Key Questions
• What are the implications of the increasingly
fluid nature of work (e.g. when, where, and
how we work and on what terms)?
• How best to balance the opportunity offered
by a diversity of employment contracts, on
the one hand, with protection for workers and
businesses, on the other.

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5. Green Jobs
Investment in green jobs and technologies will help meet environmental goals, boost
skilled employment, and drive economic growth and innovation across the EU.
Taking ambitious action to tackle climate change can deliver more
and better jobs, with a potential for 18 million net jobs by 2030.31
By reallocating just 1 year of government subsidies that are harmful
to nature, 39 million nature-positive jobs could be created.
A circular economy could add $4.5tn to global GDP by 2030.32

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The impacts of global climate change and the
biodiversity loss crises are already being felt in
Europe. Recent local illustrations range from the
disastrous flooding in Germany and Belgium which
killed over 200 people, to devastating wildfires in
Spain, Greece, and Sardinia.
The European Green Deal is Europe’s centrepiece
response and contribution to these interlinked
crises, pledging to become the first climate
neutral continent by 2050, with a target to reduce
emissions by at least 55% by 2030, compared
to 1990 levels. This is no act of altruism. Europe
views the crises as both an existential threat and
an opportunity for economic and social recovery.
This will, the EU argues, create new opportunities
for innovation, investment and jobs, address
energy poverty and dependency, improve the
continents health and wellbeing, and strengthen the
competitiveness of European companies. The Green
Deal is also viewed as a route out of the economic
challenges made more acute by the COVID-19
pandemic. Critical to achieving all of these goals
will be building the necessary skills and green jobs
to deliver them. The investment is significant: One
third of the €1.8 trillion investments from the 2021
NextGenerationEU Recovery Plan, and the EU’s
seven-year budget, will finance the European Green
Deal.
The “green job” concept derives from the Green
Jobs Initiative which was started jointly by the
United Nations Environment Programme, the ILO,
and the International Trade Union Confederation
in 2007. Then, green jobs were defined as “work
in agricultural, manufacturing, research and
development (R&D), administrative, and service
activities that contribute substantially to preserving
or restoring environmental quality”. Today, the
definition has become less defined; the UNEP
now sees green jobs as “positions in agriculture,
manufacturing, R&D, administrative, and service
activities aimed at substantially preserving or
restoring environmental quality” while the ILO has
for some time viewed them as “decent jobs that
contribute to preserve or restore the environment,
be they in traditional sectors such as manufacturing
and construction, or in new emerging green sectors
such as renewable energy and energy efficiency.”
The corporate sector has also tried to come up with
a definition. They “talk about jobs aimed directly
at protecting the environment, or which seek to
minimise impact on the health of the planet.” Most
recently, LinkedIn has announced a significant
initiative to contribute to this debate, in conjunction
with the ILO and the UN’s Partnership for Activity on
the Green Economy.
Despite this lack of clarity around the definition,
there is consensus that working towards a more
sustainable society necessitates a fundamental
change of business practices. As we heard, “The
Green Deal is largely focused on climate change,
but we need to treat the environment as a system.
How does the natural system influence society
and business … the interconnected lens is often
missed?”. This may also include a redefinition of
what is meant by corporate involvement. “There is
a need to acknowledge the role of the workers in
this – you need to place workers and their agency
at the centre of this. There needs to be a strong
focus on dialogue between business and other
actors. Workers are a key component of this,”
and “Organisations need to respond to this, but
it may be very challenging and costly, particularly
for SMEs.” The implication here is that any policy
response will need to be holistic, covering all sectors
of the economy, and arguably all workers.
These changes are welcomed by society as a
whole, with a recent UNDP and University of Oxford
study finding that citizens in the world’s leading
economies, including the UK, Germany, and Italy,
were highly supportive of increased investment in
sustainable businesses and jobs.

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50%
Desire for these jobs, and those employers, is
particularly high among the next generation of
workers. Their attitudes towards environmental
issues and desire for more meaningful employment,
serving a greater purpose and contributing to
society, represent a generational shift which many
leading employers must respond to in their ongoing
battle for talent. As we heard many times, those
organisations that do not adopt high standards will
fail to recruit the best next generation workers.
Growth in green jobs will also require greater
investment in the skills needed for new technologies
and the supporting business processes, such as the
adoption of the principles of the circular economy.
How these green jobs, and the necessary skills to
deliver them, will be supported is as yet unclear.
As one FT author put it last year, “the rhetoric of
green jobs must become detailed policy, and the
alluring future [the Prime Minister] paints must be as
inclusive as possible if he is to achieve his vision.”34
Progress is, however, being made. For example,
in the UK, a Green Skills Taskforce will report in
Summer 2021 on how to deliver 3m green jobs in
the UK by 2030.
Figure 3: People in G20 support for a just and sustainable recovery.33
An analysis conducted by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the University of Oxford
earlier this year found that people in G20 countries support increased investment in sustainable businesses
and jobs. There is majority support in nearly all G20 countries surveyed for more just, green and sustainabled
investment, led by the United Kinddom (73%), and followed by Germany, Australia, and Canada (68%), South Africa
(65%), Italy (64%), Japan (59%), France, (56%), and Agentina, Brazil and Indonesia (all 51%).
73%
68%
68%
68%
65%
64%
59%
57%
56%
51%
51%
51%
48%
46%
43%
United Kingdom
Germany
Australia
Canada
South Africa
Italy
Japan
United States of America
France
Brasil
Indonesia
Argentina
Russia
Turkey
India
0% 100%

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Key Questions
• How can we equip workers to assist
equitable, nature-positive, net-zero
transitions?
• What is a useful definition for Green Jobs in
Europe?
• How will we measure the growth of Green
Jobs in Europe?
• How will we train and upskill workers for
Green Jobs?
• What lessons can be taken from leaders
inside and outside of Europe on this topic?
• What are the key recommendations for policy
makers in Europe?
EU Targets and Policy Initiatives
The EU has a series of proposals to support the
Delivery of the European Green Deal.35
While all
support the growth of green jobs, there is nothing
specific on green skills.
Example Business Initiative
In 2020, Alphabet issued $5.75 billion in sustainability
bonds to fund ongoing and new projects that are
environmentally or socially responsible.36
The Germany energy company E.On is working with
Local Authorities to deliver the UK Government’s
£2bn Green Homes Grant. This helps homeowners
pay for energy saving improvements for their homes
by installing measures such as wall insulation, solar
panels and air source heat pumps. This is creating
new jobs, improving the warmth of homes, cutting
energy bills and contributing to the helping the UK
become zero-carbon by 2050.

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the
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6. Digital Productivity
Digital technologies are transforming our economies and seem to offer a vast
potential to enhance productivity. What is required to measure these productivity
gains and ensure that they are secured?
AI has the potential to boost firm-level labour productivity by 3 to 4%
and significantly impact economic growth in Europe.37
Removing barriers to digital investment in UK SMEs could unlock
£145bn in annual economic output because of improved
productivity and supporting 2.7m jobs.38

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Digital adoption across Europe continues to rise,
with the EU’s digital economy and society index
rising as a whole from 40 in 2015 to above 60 in
2020. But as the European Central Bank (ECB)
comments, “This masks some diversity between
countries … While connectivity (notably broadband)
has reached comparable levels in most countries,
differences in other dimensions persist, such as
the levels of human capital and the integration of
digital technologies into the business and public
sectors. These differences in digital adoption across
countries imply that the impacts of digitalisation may
also differ across the euro area and EU countries.”39
However, overall, the EU’s digital economy, remains
at less than 7% of GDP, around 2% less than that of
the US.
Figure 3: Digital Economy and Society Index - Digital adoption in the euro area and EU economies.
Figure 5: The Digital Economy (2015-2020) as Percentage of GDP
2015
2015
2016
2016
2017
2017
2018
2018
2019
2019
2020
2020
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
-2
2
4
6
8
10
BG
EA
19
EU
28
US GR PT LT ES IT PL BE LV DK NL HR FR AT SK CY UK SI DE BG RO EE SE HU FIN CZ
EL RO IT CY PL SK HU HR PT LV CZ SI FR EU LT AT DE ES LU BE UK EE IE MT NL DK SE FI

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Of course, this measure does not remotely give
the full picture. Defining the digital economy is
becoming ever trickier, as what is and what is not
‘digital’ blurs. The truth is that almost all parts
of the economy are in some way digital, and yet
our understanding of this, and the impacts on
productivity, are to date limited.
This is important, as high levels of productivity
growth are a key element in maintaining high
standards of living in the long run in Europe.
However, the EU has been experiencing a significant
slowdown in labour and total productivity growth.
As the ECB puts it, “While it may seem paradoxical
that an era of rapid technological progress is not
accompanied by great productivity improvements,
the slowdown is in fact most pronounced in
the sectors that rely most on information and
communication technology (ICT). This finding,
among others, lends credence to the view that we
are still in the installation phase of ICT.”
As a result, it is of no surprise that there is
widespread speculation about the real impact of
the digital sector on productivity. Broader concerns
include its size and its share of the economy,
competition, and its wider socio-economic
influence. Yet no one has quantified the contribution
of the digital transformation in Europe to both
economic growth and overall national and regional
productivity. This remains a major knowledge gap,
not only for those organisations within the core
digital producing sector, but also the wider range of
firms that are using digital technologies to become
more productive directly, as well as those creating
digitally enabled intangible assets that strengthen
absorption.
Academic research has, however, already
identified some factors that affect the successful
implementation of ICT; for example, having more
flexible and decentralised organisational structures,
good management practices, and stronger ability to
innovate.40
The same is true for those firms adopting
new digital tools and technology within their
activities. Although digitally enabled organisations
have evidently grown in recent years and offer
great potential for driving faster productivity growth,
the uneven adoption and diffusion of the core
technologies and processes, particularly in SMEs,
also pose productivity risks. Moreover, considering
one area of absorption, while workforce skills
constitute a fundamental productive asset for any
organisation, we know little about how skill use and
skill strategy interact with technologies within the
workplace to shape productivity, nor about which
workers gain and lose in the process. Many of the
impacts of digital transitions on production, jobs,
and work, are yet to be qualified.

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Key Questions
• What is the impact of Europe’s twin transition
on jobs and economic productivity?
• What is already known about the direct and
indirect impact of digital transformation on
productivity?
• Where are there significant gaps in
understanding?
• What lessons can be taken from leaders
inside and outside of Europe on this topic?
• What are the key recommendations for
policy makers in Europe to improve digital
productivity?
EU Targets and Policy Initiatives
There are several key EU strategy and policy areas
that will influence future digital productivity. These
include the EU’s Digital Strategy (Shaping Europe’s
Digital Future) and the Digitising European Industry
policy initiative.41
The EU’s Digital Decade has set the following
targets for the digital transformation of businesses.42
• Tech uptake: 75% of EU companies using Cloud/
AI/Big Data;
• Innovators: grow scale ups & finance to double
EU unicorns;
• Late adopters: more than 90% of SMEs reach at
least a basic level of digital intensity
The EU has identified 5 strands to focus on to
unlock the full potential of digitisation for businesses:
1.
Establishing a European platform of national
initiatives on digitising industry
2.
Creating Digital Innovation Hubs
3.
Strengthening leadership through partnerships
and industrial platforms
4.
Introducing a regulatory framework for the
digital age
5.
Preparing Europeans for the digital future

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Next Steps
Each of these six issues will now be explored via more in depth interviews and
desk research, followed by a series of expert Workshops in September and
October 2021. The objective is to identify existing leaders, high impact actions,
and policy recommendations, to enable Europe to make faster progress on these
critical topics by 2025. A report summarising the findings and recommendations
will be published by the end of 2021.

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Please do get involved. If you have alternative views
to add to the mix, then please do share them with
us via douglas.jones@futureagenda.org. Similarly,
if you are keen to be interviewed as part of the
programme or would like to be considered for
participation in the Autumn workshops, do please
let us know.
To keep in touch with this and all other Future
Agenda activity, please join our LinkedIn Group
(https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8227884/) or
follow us on Twitter (@FutureAgenda).
Get Involved

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The
Future of
Work
Soft
Skills
Digital
Productivity
Reinventing
Roles
Green
Jobs
Digital
Skills
Smarter
Talent Robots as
Colleagues
Immersive
Experiences
Reskilling
and
Upskilling
Personal
Learning
Networks
Agreed
Accreditation
Learning to
be Creative
Human
Touch
Equality and
Diversity
Pace of
Change
Vulnerable
Roles
Working
Longer
Automation
of
Interaction
20 Year
Degree
Projects
Not Jobs
Attracting
Nomads
Porous
Organisations
Valued Part-
Time Work
Working
Near Home
Next Gen
Expectations
The
Sustainability
Imperative
Skilling for
Resilience
Socially
Valuable
Jobs
Deeper
Collaboration
Productivity
Increase
Data as
an Asset
Speed to
Scale
Smaller 'Big'
Companies
Polarised
Workers
Data and
Digital
Literacy
Blurring of
Employment
Appendix A: The Future of Work – 30 Foresights

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References
1
https://www.vision-project.org
2
https://www.futurelearn.com/info/blog/the-complete-guide-to-digital-skills
3
https://www.eca.europa.eu/Lists/ECADocuments/RW21_02/RW_Digital_skills_EN.pdf
4
https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/desi
5
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2021/04/02/innovative-digital-green-smart-setting-out-a-new-growth-model-for-
central-eastern-and-south-eastern-europe/
6
https://e-resident.gov.ee/nomadvisa/
7
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8
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9
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10
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11
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12
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13
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14
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subsidies-which-harm-nature-WWF

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33
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34
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targets-2030_en

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About Future Agenda
Future Agenda is an open source think tank
and advisory firm. We help organisations, large
and small, to explore emerging opportunities,
identify new growth platforms and develop
game-changing innovations. Founded in
2010, Future Agenda has pioneered an open
foresight approach that brings together senior
leaders across business, academia, NFP and
government. The aim is to connect the
informed and influential, to challenge
assumptions and build a more comprehensive
view about the future that will help deliver
positive, lasting impact.
For more information and to have access to
all our insights please visit
www.futureagenda.org
Contact:
Dr. Tim Jones:
tim.jones@futureagenda.org
Caroline Dewing:
caroline.dewing@futureagenda.org
James Alexander :
james.alexander@futureagenda.org