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1 
Transformation, 
transitions & 
future of 
smallholders 
recognising 
differences
Transition 
Increasing GDP/cap 
P 
e 
r 
c 
e 
n 
t 
a 
g 
e 
S 
h 
a 
r 
e 
T 
o 
t 
a 
l 
V 
a 
l 
u 
e 
Share 
Labour i...
Transformation & Transition 
Relative decline of agriculture with economic growth
Most SF today 
will not be full-time 
SF in 
20/30/50 years
Attention! 
Not mass exit 
Not end of small-scale 
farming 
Labour transition 
may be slow: 
SS Africa, 2010-- 
2020 
5
Rural Choices 
Jobs 
Farm 
RNFE 
City 
Transition 
Brutal 
Gentle
Benign Rural Transitions 
(FT 
Comm) 
Farming 
Part-time 
Farming RNFE 
Rural- 
Urban 
Links 
Migration
SF 
DIFFER 
3 schema
OECD DAC Rural Worlds 
RW1: LSCF 
RW2: SF, may 
hire 
RW3: SF survival, food 
first 
RW4: Landless 
RW5: Chronic Poor
Dorward et al: SOAS/Wye 
Step Up: Potential FT 
commercial SF 
Step Out: diversified 
RNFE 
Hang In: Marginal 
SF
Latin America [RIMISP]
Latin America: 12 Cs 
3% 
9% 
20% 
43% 
25% 
Commercial Farms 
Class A family farms 
Class B family farms 
Class C family ...
Is it that different in (Eastern) Africa? 
SF surveys, 1996/2001 
14 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
Kenya Ethiopia Rwanda Mozambiqu...
Policy implications 
15
ARD Policy by Cat & Effect 
Policy Context Household Assets 
Rural Investment 
Climate 
Peace 
Stable Macro-Economy 
Low/N...
Who needs what? 
A: Step Up B: Step Up C: Step Out Chronic Poor: 
Hang In 
Rural Investment 
Climate 
Rural Public 
Goods ...
What happens to marginal 
SF [C]? 
• Part-time/Weekend/Hobby farms 
• Entrust/Lend/Rent/Sell to 
neighbours 
Do not (all) ...
Key References 
• Timmer, C. Peter, 2009, A World without Agriculture. 
The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspe...
Steve Wiggins: Rural Transformation and Transitions
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Steve Wiggins: Rural Transformation and Transitions

"The African Agriculture Policy Agenda in Practice: Managing processes and improving advisory capacities”, Accra, June 2014

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Steve Wiggins: Rural Transformation and Transitions

  1. 1. 1 Transformation, transitions & future of smallholders recognising differences
  2. 2. Transition Increasing GDP/cap P e r c e n t a g e S h a r e T o t a l V a l u e Share Labour in Agri. Agri Share GDP VA Agri Worker Value Agri GDP
  3. 3. Transformation & Transition Relative decline of agriculture with economic growth
  4. 4. Most SF today will not be full-time SF in 20/30/50 years
  5. 5. Attention! Not mass exit Not end of small-scale farming Labour transition may be slow: SS Africa, 2010-- 2020 5
  6. 6. Rural Choices Jobs Farm RNFE City Transition Brutal Gentle
  7. 7. Benign Rural Transitions (FT Comm) Farming Part-time Farming RNFE Rural- Urban Links Migration
  8. 8. SF DIFFER 3 schema
  9. 9. OECD DAC Rural Worlds RW1: LSCF RW2: SF, may hire RW3: SF survival, food first RW4: Landless RW5: Chronic Poor
  10. 10. Dorward et al: SOAS/Wye Step Up: Potential FT commercial SF Step Out: diversified RNFE Hang In: Marginal SF
  11. 11. Latin America [RIMISP]
  12. 12. Latin America: 12 Cs 3% 9% 20% 43% 25% Commercial Farms Class A family farms Class B family farms Class C family farms Rural landless
  13. 13. Is it that different in (Eastern) Africa? SF surveys, 1996/2001 14 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Kenya Ethiopia Rwanda Mozambique Zambia Hectares 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile
  14. 14. Policy implications 15
  15. 15. ARD Policy by Cat & Effect Policy Context Household Assets Rural Investment Climate Peace Stable Macro-Economy Low/No Urban Bias Basic Institutions Rural Public Goods Roads, Power Human Capital: Education, Health, Water, Research & Ext. Correct Rural Market Failures ↓ TransacHons Costs ↓ Monopoly Power Esp.: Finance, Inputs Transfer Capital Grants & Subsidies Social Protection Jobs Income Support
  16. 16. Who needs what? A: Step Up B: Step Up C: Step Out Chronic Poor: Hang In Rural Investment Climate Rural Public Goods Correct Market Failures Private Sector Approach ?? ?? Institutions, Collectives or State? Transfer Capital X X ?? ?? Social Protection X ??
  17. 17. What happens to marginal SF [C]? • Part-time/Weekend/Hobby farms • Entrust/Lend/Rent/Sell to neighbours Do not (all) leave land • Support Staple Crops • From 3/6 to 6/9/12 months food supply Agricultural Policy? 18
  18. 18. Key References • Timmer, C. Peter, 2009, A World without Agriculture. The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspective, Washington DC: AEI Press Publisher for the American Enterprise Institute • Wiggins, Steve, John Farrington, Giles Henley, Natasha Grist & Anna Locke, 2013, Agricultural development policy: a contemporary agenda, Background Paper for GIZ, London: Overseas Development Institute: pp 18–22 • Wiggins, Steve, 2011, Island nation or global citizen? Solving the food crisis by helping small scale farmers, Policy Report, Melbourne: World Vision Australia

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