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@mrjoe
How to design with science
January 8, 2015
Joe Leech
Waving einstein
How to
design with
science and not
destroy the...
Hi, I’m @mrjoe
but you can
call me Joe
@mrjoe
⅓ ⅓⅓
Research DesignDigital
Strategy
@mrjoe
[Newton] has destroyed
all the poetry of the
rainbow, by reducing it
to the prismatic colours.
– John Keats
@mrjoe
The product goes
live and it's lost
it’s magic
The team
/ client
continually
questioning your
choices
Being
microma...
@mrjoe
It started with a need
6
http://
www.cxpartner
s.co.uk/cxblog/
the_myth_of_th
e_page_fold_ev
idence_from_us
er_test...
@mrjoe
Here’s the data, from an eyetracking study. It shows
2 designs, one to the left with stuff crammed above
the fold. T...
@mrjoe
Design is not so
much a design issue
as a power struggle.
– Alan Cooper
Alan cooper, created visual basic amongst
o...
@mrjoe
Design is the process of
choosing and organising code
words, images and messages
into a form that communicates
and ...
Talk stories.
@mrjoe
Here’s some research I did many years
ago for the trainline. What does this
photo show?
This one photo saved countl...
@mrjoe
2.
1.
It tells us two things.
1. When people travel they are often
carrying loads of stuff
2. most people have a pho...
@mrjoe
I didn’t see them [the asterisks].
There’s nothing that explains
what they mean.
How did you hear about us?
*
How o...
@mrjoe
How did you hear about us?
How old are you?
Optional
We don’t mark mandatory, we mark
optional.
It’s enough to get ...
Talk business.
@mrjoe
h‫מּ‬p://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2014/06/
online_advertising_effectiveness_for_large_brands_onli...
@mrjoe
You’re f---ing with
the magic!
– Mel Karmazin, Viacom executive
h‫מּ‬p://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technolog...
@mrjoe
http://
justinmrao.com/
lewis_rao_nearim
possibility.pdf
On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the
Returns to Adve...
@mrjoe
The 5 basic business models.
19
http://mrjoe.uk
Advertising
Affiliate
feesSelling
Subscription
/ Licensing
Market
pla...
@mrjoe
Strong ideas,
weakly held.
http://mrjoe.uk/strong-ideas-weakly-held/
Talk data.
@mrjoe 22
5 years ago. I was a single man. At a point in life where it was becoming
harder to meet new people. Someone sug...
@mrjoe
http://blog.okcupid.com/
index.php/the-4-big-myths-of-
profile-pictures/
I went in search of data, OK Cupid has a bl...
@mrjoe
Classic
-Conversion (sales / visits)

-Product page conversion
(sales / visits to product page)

-Funnel analysis

...
@mrjoe
I had a recent debate over whether a
border should be 3, 4 or 5 pixels
wide, and was asked to prove my
case. I can’...
@mrjoe
Classic
-Conversion (sales / visits)

-Product page conversion
(sales / visits to product page)

-Funnel analysis

...
@mrjoe 27
Data shows
confidence in the
design
@mrjoe http://www.cxpartners.co.uk/cxblog/multi_variant_testing_and_the_flying_squirrel/
The squirrel evolved bit by bit to...
@mrjoe
The soaring eagle. Elegantly drifting
through the air with little effort. The
eagle also evolves, little by little t...
@mrjoe
Sore like an eagle
don’t leap like a
squirrel
http://www.cxpartners.co.uk/cxblog/multi_variant_testing_and_the_flyin...
Talk theory.
@mrjoe
James Vicary, in 1957, flashed up hungry eat
popcorn, thirsty drink coke as single frames
during a movie showing.
@mrjoe
58%A reported 58% increase in sales of popcorn.
But it was later found out to be a hoax. He made it up to
prop up h...
@mrjoe
Some examples, but there is no proof.
http://www.badabingrecords.com/2011/03/the-subliminal-
scares-a-short-history...
@mrjoe
Strikingly, there
was no
significant effect.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30878843
The media’s obsession. They ...
@mrjoe
There are resources out there that help with theory. This is
from Ribot, alumni of my psychology for designers
work...
@mrjoe
PsychologyForDesigners.com
Or you can buy my book, I show you how to find a theory
and apply it to design. How to us...
@mrjoe
Title Text
38
A designer
who doesn't
understand
psychology
is going to be no
more successful
than an architect
who ...
@mrjoe
The biggest myth
ever perpetuated
in the design field
is that good
design sells 

itself. – Mike 

Montiero
Talk objectively.
@mrjoe
'I feel the design,
minimalist in style,
reflects a modern
design aesthetic’
- The Designer
@mrjoe
‘Well I feel more that
it’s a website and not
a f#cking coffee table.’
- The Product
Manager
@mrjoe
'I feel the design,
minimalist in style,
reflects a modern
design aesthetic’
- The Designer
What was wrong with that...
@mrjoe http://www.gensleron.com/storage/post-images/cities/reinventingaclassicreuniontowerobservationdeckreopens/1.jpg
Whi...
@mrjoe
Art: …works to be appreciated
primarily for their beauty or
emotional power.
– Merriam Webster Dictionary
@mrjoe
http://
www.ise.bgu.ac.il/
faculty/noam/papers/
00_nt_ask_di_iwc.pdf
Art does support design. Pretty things are eas...
@mrjoe
What is beautiful is
usable.
1. Talk stories
2. Talk business
3. Talk data
4. Talk theory
5. Talk objectively
@mrjoe
mrjoe.uk
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@mrjoe http:// justinmrao.com/ lewis_rao_nearim possibility.pdf How to design with science: and not destroy the magic (Joe Leech)

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Publié le

@mrjoe
http://
justinmrao.com/
lewis_rao_nearim
possibility.pdf
On the Near Impossibility of Measuring the
Returns to Advertising⇤
Randall A. Lewis
Google, Inc.
ralewis@google.com
Justin M. Rao
Microsoft Research
justin.rao@microsoft.com
April 23, 2013
Abstract
Classical theories of the firm assume access to reliable signals to measure
the causal impact of choice variables on profit. For advertising expenditure
we show, using twenty-five online field experiments (representing $2.8 mil-
lion) with major U.S. retailers and brokerages, that this assumption typically
does not hold. Statistical evidence from the randomized trials is very weak
because individual-level sales are incredibly volatile relative to the per capita
cost of a campaign—a “small” impact on a noisy dependent variable can gen-
erate positive returns. A concise statistical argument shows that the required
sample size for an experiment to generate su ciently informative confidence
intervals is typically in excess of ten million person-weeks. This also implies
that heterogeneity bias (or model misspecification) unaccounted for by ob-
servational methods only needs to explain a tiny fraction of the variation in
sales to severely bias estimates. The weak informational feedback means most
firms cannot even approach profit maximization.
This paper was published. The study was undertaken written when Lewis
and Rao were at Yahoo.
What does this tell us? There is no proof this works. It’s built on faith.

Publié dans : Design, Technologie
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