This document provides an earnings presentation for BRSA Bank for the fourth quarter and full year of 2012. Some key highlights include:
- Net income increased 25% year-over-year on a comparable basis, with a focus on improving core banking revenues and prudent provisioning.
- The bank leveraged its reduced securities holdings into higher-yielding loans, with a focus on profitable retail products like mortgages and auto loans.
- The loan portfolio composition became increasingly customer-driven, while the liquidity and funding positions remained strong, with low-risk deposits making up two-thirds of total deposits.
- Overall, the results demonstrated sound core banking performance and sustained profit generation based on strong fundamentals.
2. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
4Q 2012 Macro Highlights
• Global economic growth remained fragile, policy interventions played a key role in investor confidence
• Politics: Obama reelected - the ‘fiscal cliff’still needs to be addressed and Chinese leadership changed – eyes on
economic growth
Low interest rate – low
• Spain, France and Hungary faced rating downgrades, ECB approved aid to Spanish banks
growth environment
• Eurozone growth forecasts were cut –only policy response expected from the ECB remains via the Outright
Monetary Transactions (OMT)
• Oil remained flattish as gold lost value of c.a. 5%
• Turkish economy grew by 1.6% in 3Q12, below expectations-- indicators sign a continuous contribution from
foreign demand with a deceleration and weak domestic demand in the last quarter.
• Current account deficit continued to narrow to US$ 51.9 billion as of Nov’12 while there might be signals for
the reacceleration.
Successful rebalancing • Annual inflation reached 6.16% as unprocessed food prices lowered the total inflation during the whole year
amid a soft landing with low levels.
earning investment • CBRT lowered upper band of the corridor gradually from 10% to 9% leaving lower band of corridor unchanged
at 5% and cut the policy rate by 25bps to 5.5% in December.
grade by Fitch
• CBRT continued to utilize multiple tools in order to support financial stability -- increased reserve requirement
(RR) on FC liabilities and Reserve Option Coefficients (ROCs) for holding FC and gold instead of TL.
• CBRT remaines firmly focused on financial stability and continues to take measures aimed at, on the one hand,
reducing the appreciation pressure on TL and, on the other, controlling credit growth to ensure that the
ongoing economic recovery remains “balanced”.
• After having appreciated by 4%, 1%, 2% against the currency basket in 3 consecutive quarters, TL depreciated
by 1.5% in 4Q12.
• Benchmark bond yield, on a monthly average basis, declined to 6.4% in 4Q from 7.6% in 3Q12.
2
3. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
2012 Highlights
Leveraging reduced share of securities with higher yielding loans
Selective lending strategy
Increasingly • Healthy market share gains ytd in key profitable products: Mortgages, GPLs and Auto loans
customer-driven • Rational pricing stance - Intentional market share loss in TL commercial loans & some retail products
in 4Q
asset mix • Revival of FX lending in 2H12 w/ increasing demand - driven by working capital & investment loans
Timely managed securities portfolio – FRN heavy acting as a hedge for volatility
Solid, deposit-heavy and actively managed funding mix
• Reigned by mass deposits: SME+Consumer: 66% of total deposits
• Proven success in attracting demand deposits : 21% of total customer deposits
Liquid, low risk & • Ability to access alternative funding sources: Repos & money market borrowings, foreign funding,
bonds
well-capitalized
Risk-return balance priority
balance sheet • NPL ratio sliding upwards, as expected -- yet, at a faster pace in 4Q, mainly due to non-recurring
NPL inflows
• Sustained strong coverage and provisioning levels
Further strengthened capital base mirroring the high internal capital generation capability
• Basel II CAR: 18%, Leverage:7x
Healthy profit
generation based on Comparable1 net profit up by 25% y-o-y-- ROAE: 17%; ROAA: 2.2%,
Expanding margins q-o-q & y-o-y -- result of effective management of asset/liability mix
strong core banking Growth momentum sustained on a comparable basis2 despite the highest base in Net F&Cs
income and efficient Commitment to strict cost discipline
cost management • Uninterrupted investment in distribution network while preserving highest efficiencies
1 Comparable refering to «Business as Usual». Please follow the detailed analysis in slide 4
2 Assuming that consumer loan origination fees for 2011 are accounted for on an accrual basis and the avg. cap applied on fund management fees for 2011 is at the same level as 2012 3
4. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
Results underscore the sound core banking performance…
Net Income (TL Million)
2012
180
60 80 26 3,364 + Improving Core Banking
3,070 Revenues
• NII exc. CPI linkers: +26% yoy
• Net Fees & Comm +13% yoy,
on a comparable basis4
• BaU Gross CoR <100bps ,
as expected
Reported One-off effect Additional Other NPL Sale ADJ. Net
Net Income on specific General Prov.2
Provisions 3 Income Business As Usual* Prudent provisioning
prov. 1
(Checks)
Net Income - pressured profitability
2011 up by 25%
y-o-y
3,071 43
+ BaU* ROAE: 17.4%
188 73 90 216 85 2,701
Reported ROAE: 15.9%
BaU* ROAA: 2.2%
+ Reported ROAA: 2.0%
Reported Regulatory One-off Free NPL Sale Eureko, Subsidiary ADJ. Net
Net Income effect on effect on Provisions Mastercard Valuation Income
fees 4 specific & Visa
prov.1 stake sale
*Business as Usual = Excluding non-recurring items and the regulatory effects in the P&L
1 Provisions (post-tax) resulting from non-recurring NPL inflows related to a few commercial files w/ strong collateralization: 4Q12: TL113mn; 2Q12: TL42mn & TL26mn for preserving coverage ratio >80%; 4Q11: TL73mn. 2 Additional general provisions,
4
defined by law, for loans extended before 2006 in the amount of TL150mn, TL 60mn of which is set aside in 4Q12 and remaining at equal amounts within the following three years. 3 Provisions for the potential default risk of check customers 4 Assuming
consumer loan origination fees for 2011 are accounted for on an accrual basis and the avg. cap applied on fund management fees for 2011 is at the same level as 2012
5. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
…and higher provisioning in 4Q, due to prudent provisioning
Quarterly Net Income (TL million)
(TL Million) 4Q 12 3Q 12 D QoQ Increasing LtD spread coupled w/
declining costs of other funding
(+) NII- excl .income on CPI linkers 1,265 1,086 16% sources drived NII growth
1Q12: 862
Quarterly drop due to timing
(+) Net fees and comm. 496 530 -6% of account maintenance fees
Specific & General Prov.
2Q12: 719 (-) - exc. regulatory & one-offs effects -229 -245 -7% BaU CoR at <100 bps
IMPROVED CORE BANKING
= CORE BANKING REVENUES 1,531 1,371 12% PERFORMANCE
3Q12: 733 (+) Income on CPI linkers
Contribution by the soaring CPI
NI Growth + 3% 602 30 n.m linker yields in 4Q --to 27% from
1.4% in 3Q12
*BaU: +14% (+) Collections
25 52 -51% Collections picking up pace
4Q12: 757 (+) Trading & FX gains
in 2013
7 452 -99% Lower trading gains after
strong profit realizations in 3Q
(+) Other income 36 16 118%
(-) OPEX -1,000 -880 14% As guided
2012: 3,070 (-) Other provisions -9 -3 250%
(-) Taxation -265 -224 18%
= *BaU NET INCOME
GENERATION OF
(exc. regulatory & one-off prov.) 928 815 14% SOLID RESULTS
(-) Additional General Prov.
for loans before 2006 -60 0 n.m
(-) Free Provision 82 -82 n.m.
(-) One-off on specific prov. -113 0 n.m
(-) Other Provisions (Checks) -80 0 n.m.
= NET INCOME
757 733 3%
*Business as Usual= Excluding non-recurring items and regulatory effects in the P&L
5
11. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
NPL ratio sliding upwards as expected -- yet at a faster pace in 4Q, mainly
driven by non-recurring NPL inflows due to a few commercial files
Net Quarterly NPLs (TL billion) NPL Categorisation1
NPL inflows resulting from
310 few commercial files with
strong collateralization; Retail Banking
192 176 4Q12
(Consumer & SME Personal) Increasing retail NPL
13 Garanti: TL 176mn
23% of total loans inflow in-line with soft
67 2Q12
60 lending in the economy
Garanti: TL 60mn
263 245 2.2% • low-ticket items
New NPL 172 165 2.0% 2.0% 2.1%
• recoveries are very
Collections -42 -71 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8%
strong
-105 -110
-1702 NPL sale
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
NPL Ratio1 Credit Cards
Significant NPL sales in
13% of total loans
Global Crisis & the sector dragged
Hard Lending
Recovery Soft Lending 5.8% down sector’s NPL
5.4%
5.2% 5.2% ratio
5.8%
5.9% 4.8% 5.0% 4.9%
4.6% 4.1%
3.9% 3.7%
4.8%
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
3.4% 3.0%
2.7% 5.2% 2.4%
3.6% Business Banking
3.4% (Including SME Business) NPL inflows related
4.3% 2.6% 2.8%
64% of total loans to a few commercial
2.9% 2.8%
2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4% 2.7% files hit 4Q
1.8%
-- collections expected
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1.8% in 2013
1.3% 1.4% 1.5%
Garanti Sector
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Garanti excld.NPL sales & write-offs* Sector w/ no NPL sales & write-offs*
1 NPL ratio and NPL categorisation for Garanti and sector figures are per BRSA bank-only data for fair comparison
2 Garanti NPL sale amounts TL201 mn, of which TL170 mn relates to NPL portfolio with 100% coverage and the remaining TL31 mn being from the previously written-off NPLs
* Adjusted with write-offs in 2008,2009,2010,2011 & 2012 Source: BRSA, TBA & CBT 11
12. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
Extraordinary increase in provisions, due to regulatory requirements &
non- recurring NPL inflows, temporarily lifting the CoR level to >100bps
Quarterly Loan-Loss Provisions (TL million) Cumulative Gross Cost of Risk (bps)
Coverage Ratio
Mar 12 June 12 Sept 12 Dec 12
96 120
Sector1 82% 81% 75% 76%
89
Garanti 81% 81% 81% 81%
47 84 88
69
47
*NPL inflows resulting 2Q12 4Q12
from few commercial Garanti: TL 52mn Garanti: TL 141mn
files with strong Additional 3M12 6M12 9M12 2012
collateralization; provisions of
TL32mn set aside
for alignment of
coverage ratio to
430 Cumulative CoR Cumulative CoR
pre-NPL sale level
(exc. regulatory & one-off effects)
282
3 245 141*
52*
32*
180
39
Strong coverage Cumulative CoR
2 2
98
132 60
ratio sustained at 88bps
98
66 65
100 81% excluding
regulatory & one-off effects
vs. sector’s 76%1
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
General Specific
1 Sector figures are per BRSA weekly data, commercial banks only
2 Additional general provisions, defined by law, for loans extended before 2006 in the amount of TL150mn, TL 60mn of which is set aside in 4Q12 and remaining at equal amounts within the following three years 12
13. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
Solid and actively managed funding mix -- Reigned by customer deposits
& reinforced with alternative funding sources
Composition of Liabilities
- Double digit annual growth in
Bonds Issued 2.5%
avg. total deposits was
3.9% 3.7% hampered with last two weeks’
Funds Borrowed 14.5% 14.0% 13.4% deposit run-off, due to intensified
Repos 7.5% 4.9% 8.4%
pricing competition
Funding base
+ Opportunistic utilization
of repos & money market borrowings,
IBL:
IBL: IBL: foreign funding including the largest
45.5%
70%
46.6% 43.2% 69% reinforced with ever non-sovereign Eurobond out of
69%
Time Deposits alternative Turkey amounting US$1.3bn
with the lowest coupon rate
funding sources
Demand Deposits 11.9% 11.3% 11.2%
SHE 13.3%
+ ~US$ 1.1bn
12.0% 13.0% syndication roll-over at the
Other 6.1% 6.3% 6.8% lowest cost in 2012
2011 3Q12 2012 + ~TL 2bn
Total Deposits (TL billion) TL bond roll-over
3%
(3%) Comfortable level of LtD ratio
87.4 89.8
84.5 83.3 87.5 Loans/Deposits ~105% vs. 99% in 3Q12
43% 43% 43% 41% 43% FC
3%2 4%2 (2%)2 3%2 LtD ratio slightly heading north in 4Q, due to:
• Rational pricing stance in deposits -- supported
(6%) with healthy B/S structure enabling access to
6%
(0%) 5% TL alternative funding sources
57% 57%
59%
57% 57% Loans / Deposits
adj. w/ merchant payables1
~100%
2011 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 2012 13
1 Payables from credit card transactions. Please refer to footnote 5.2.4.3 miscellaneous payables as per BRSA Unconsolidated financial report
2 Growth in USD terms 13
14. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
Increasingly customer-driven deposit base bolstered by the success in
attracting demand deposits
Deposits by LOB1 (Excluding bank deposits) Demand Deposits (TL billion)
3%
16.3% 14.2% 13.2%
3%
18.0
21.3% 20.4% 17.5 17.4
20.9% 16.9 0.8
0.7 0.7
0.7
16.4% 15.5
16.0% 16.4%
0.4
17.3
16.7 16.7
16.2
Corporate 15.1
Commercial 50.0%
48.1%
46.8%
SME 2011 1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 2012
Consumer
Bank Deposits Customer Deposits
2011 3Q12 2012
Sustained solid demand deposits
Consumer+SME /Total Deposits Customer Demand Deposits /
Total Customer Deposits: 21%
vs. Sector’s 18%2
Capturing a 66%
wider customer 65% Customer demand deposits
63%
base market share2 13.5%
1 Based on bank-only MIS data
2 Sector data is based on BRSA weekly data for commercial banks only 14
15. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
Improving core spreads…
Loan Yields & Deposit Costs (Quarterly)1
Loan Yields (Quarterly Averages)
LtD spread qoq:
+~85bps improvement
16.0% 16.1% 15.9% 15.4% TL Yield
5.5% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7%
FC Yield
Retail loan yields
1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12
remain resilient q-o-q,
limiting the negative effect
from declining rates in TL
Cost of Deposits (Quarterly Averages)
= commercial lending
10.5% 10.4%
9.8%
8.1%
9.0% 8.9%
8.4%
TL Time Easing deposit
6.9%
TL Blended costs
3.5% 3.2% 3.0% More evident
2.7%
FC Time decline in cost of
2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% FC Blended deposits along with
CBRT’s more
1Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 accommodative
policy
1 Based on bank-only MIS data and calculated using daily averages
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16. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
… coupled with the sharp increase in CPI-linker income, result in
~217bps quarterly margin expansion
Quarterly NIM (Net Interest Income / Average IEAs) Cumulative NIM
NIM Adjusted NIM
31 bps
4.2% 2010 4.7%
217 bps 4.1%
3.9%
5.5%
4.1% 4.2% 3.6% 2011 3.9%
3.3% + ~40 bps
+ ~25bps exc.
CPI linkers
2012 4.3%
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Q-o-Q Evolution of Margin Components (in bps)
Declining cost of liabilities
+70 +3 548 -126 shoring up lower asset yields
+160 -17 -3
Other
Exp. Items • NIM up by ~50bps q-o-q,
Sec. Other Deposits +2 424
Inc. Items excluding quarterly income
exc. CPI Provisions FX& volatility from CPI linkers
331 +4 Trading
Loans Securities
CPI
Adj. NIM pressured by higher
quarterly provisions
• up by ~90bps q-o-q, excluding
one-off & regulatory effects on
3Q 12 4Q 12 4Q 12
NIM NIM Adj NIM provisions
Adjustments to NIM: Net Interest Income/ Average IEA adjusted by FX gain/loss, provision for loans and securities, and net trading income/loss
16
17. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
Sustainably growing and highly diversified fee base supporting ordinary
banking income
Net Fees & Commissions (TL million) Highly diversified fee base reinforces
sustainable income generation
Flat
2,008 2,008 Growth2 (y-o-y)
Cash loans 21%
Assuming that consumer loan
1,772 Money transfer 12%
origination fees for 2011 are
accounted for on an accrual basis
Payment Systems 12%
and the avg. cap applied on fund
management fees for 2011 is at
the same level as 2012 #1 in Ordinary Banking Income3 generation
with the highest Net F&C market share
2011 2012
Net Fees & Commissions Breakdown 1,2
2011 2012
Cash Loans
Payment 19.8%
Cash Loans
21.3%
• Leader in interbank money transfer
Payment
Systems Systems 17% market share vs. the peer average of 10%
33.9% 40.3%
Non Cash
• Highest payment systems commissions per volume
Non Cash
Loans Loans 1.5% vs. the peer average of 1.1%4
8.8% 7.8%
Money Money • #1 in bancassurrance5
Transfer Transfer
Other
9.2%
Insurance
9.2%
Insurance
• Strong presence in brokerage
11.1% Other
6.6% 5.2% ~7% market share
Asset Mgt Brokerage 10.8% Asset Mgt Brokerage
6.7% 4.0% 1.8% 3.6%
1 Breakdown is on a comparable basis to same period last year 2 Bank-only MIS data
3 Defined as; net interest income adjusted with provisions for loans and securities, net FX and trading gains + net fees and commissions; as of 9M12 17
4 Peer average as of 9M12 5 Among private banks as of November 2012
18. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
Further strenghtened capital base mirroring the high internal capital
generation capability
CAR & Tier I ratio
18.2%
17.8%
TIER I TIER I
Strategic capital allocation for
16.2% 16.4% • healthy,
• profitable &
• long-term sustainable growth
Recommended
12%
Basel II CAR: >18%
Investment grade level
Required
8%
impact on CAR: ~+20bps
Leverage: 7x
Comfortable level of
Basel II Basel II free funds:
3Q12 4Q12 Free funds/IEA: 16%
Free Equity = SHE - ( Net NPL+ Investment in Associates and Subsidiaries + Tangible and Intangible Assets+ AHR+ Reserve Requirements)
Free Funds = Free Equity + Demand Deposits 18
19. Investor Relations / BRSA Bank-only Earnings Presentation 2012
Differentiated business model -- reflected, once again, in strong results
(TL Million) 2011 2012 D YoY
(+) NII- excl .income on CPI linkers 3,284 4,148 26%
Double digit growth
momentum in Net F&Cs
(+) Net fees and comm. – on a comparable basis1 1,772 2,008 13% on a comparable basis1
Specific & General Prov.
(-) - exc. one-offs on specific prov. -604 -770 28% OPEX/Avg. Assets
=
(+)
CORE BANKING REVENUES
Income on CPI linkers
4,452
1,405
5,386
1,571
21%
12%
Growing core banking
revenues 2.3%
Flattish Y-o-Y
(+) Collections 453 167 -63%
(+) Trading & FX gains 332 614 85%
(+) Other income -before one-offs 89 101 14% • 18 net branch openings;
(-) OPEX -3,216 -3,541 10%
• Successive & targeted Sustained high level of
investments in digital
(-) Other provisions -27 -23 -17% platforms
Fees/OPEX
• +7% rise in # of ATMs
57%
(-) Taxation -787 -911 16%
= BaU* NET INCOME • ~500 new hires
2,701 3,364 25%
(-) Additional General Prov. for loans before 2006 0 -60 n.M
(-) Free Provision -90 0 n.M
(-) One-off on specific prov. -73 -180 n.M
(-) Other Provisions (Checks) 0 -80 n.M
Cost/Income
(+) Regulatory effects on fees
(+) NPL sale
188
43 26
0 n.m.
n.M
47%
(+) Eureko, Mastercard & Visa stake sale 216 0 n.M
(+) Subsidiary valuation 85 0 n.M
= NET INCOME 3,071 3,070 0%
*Business as Usual= Excluding non-recurring items and regulatory effects in the P&L
1 Assuming that consumer loan origination fees for 2011 are accounted for on an accrual basis and the avg. cap applied on fund management fees for 2011 is at the same level as 2012 19
2 On a consolidated basis, growth momentum was limited due to change in accounting methodology in booking fees of some subsidiaries