advanced robotics wef 2016

1. ADVANCED ROBOTICS
awakening technology

2. 12 Disruptive Technologies

3. CYBER (AI)=RETHINKING
EVERYTHING+NEW PARADIGMS
• RETHINKING HUMAN BEING
• RETHINKING LIFE
• RETHINKING CITY (CREATING NEURA SYSTEM OF
THE CITY)
• RETHINKING PROUCTIVITY, CAPITAL,LABOUR
• RETHINKING INDUSTRY
• RETHINKING ENTERPRISE
• BIO-NANO-INFO TECH CONVERGENCE
• POLITICS

4. • In 1790 farmers represented 90% of the labor force, but this percentage has declined ever since. By
1840, in the midst of the Industrial Revolution, farmers made up 69% of the labor force, by 1920
only 27%, and by 1990 a measly 2.6%. Advancements in technology have enabled employees to
work in occupations that require less manual labor, but command higher wages for contributions at
more highly-skilled jobs.
• Technology has replaced much of the manual labor required in agriculture. Milking robots save
farmers money and keep cows healthy. Grape-harvesting robots and self-driving tractors are other
examples in this sector. Similar disruptions are taking place in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing
and Hunting sector.
• We estimate that by 2035, robots will replace 316,000, or 60%, of the 530,000 jobs in the sector at
that time. The investment in automation will be enormous – on the order of $16.5 billion through
2035. The resulting gains will also be incredible. GDP generated by the agriculture sector in 2035
will be 55% greater with automation than without, as automation will add $63 billion to GDP by
that time. Similarly, output per worker will be 55% greater with automation than without.
• Today’s farmers are fitting tractors with GPS, autonomous steering, and seed rate monitoring
systems. Companies like Deere DE and Trimble TRMB sell systems and equipment to help sow crops
accurately, prevent overlap, and allow for better strip till2 management. So farmers save fuel,
fertilizer, and time, while improving yield.3

8. CONTENT
1. Philosophy of Change
2. Core Technologies (control and
automation+Internet/connectivity+CYBER
(AI)+IoT+sensors+accumulators)
3. Timeline
4. Quantity and Growth Rate
5. Generations of Robots (Mechanical/Intelligent/Smart)
6. Competitive Advantages of Robots
7. Classification of Robots(Industrial, Military, Commercial, Personal)
8. Productivity and Growth
9. Prices
10. Density
11. Images

9. Core Technologies (control and
automation+Internet/connectivity+CYBER
(AI)+IoT+
sensors+accumulators)

12. c

14. c

15. • We are giving to our world a digital nervous
system…

16. Philosophy of Change

18. productivity-and-employment-a-structural-
change

20. Man Vs Machine...Or
Is It Man And
Machine?

25. • Robots will boost productivity by 25-30% in
many industries and lower labor costs by 18%
or more in certain countries in 2015. They
could also push labor savings at least 30%
higher than they would be otherwise.
• THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
Feb 2015
c

27. Quantity dynamics

28. QUANTITY AND CLASSIFICATION OF
ROBOTS (2016-2025)
(MILITARY, INDUSTRIAL, SERVICE, PERSONAL)
AUGUST 29, 2014
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ց
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29. ROBOT EVOLUTION
INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
• In 1961, General Motors deployed the very first
industrial robot. The first Unimate model
weighed 1.8 tons. More than 50 years later, in
2013, almost 162,000 robots were sold
worldwide, and in 2015 more than 1.5 million
robots will be in use. After 50 years of classical
industrial robotization, we are now on the brink
of 50 years of collaboration with service robots. It
is expected that, between 2013 and 2016, around
95,000 new-generation robots will be sold, with a
total value of some 14 billion dollars.

32. Global-robot-population-heads-
towards-two-million
• According to the IFR, around 50,000 robots will be sold in China during 2014 –
about a quarter of the global total. Between 2015 and 2017, it expects the Chinese
market to expand by at least 25% per year to reach 100,000 machines by 2017,
taking the total number of robots installed in China to more than 400,000. It
reports that growing numbers of Chinese robot manufacturers are entering the
market and predicts that competition with foreign suppliers will increase.
• IFR expects new markets to emerge for industrial robots in applications such
battery-charging stations for electric vehicles, and the production of the high-
power batteries to provide energy storage to buffer renewable energy sources.
• • In a separate report, the IFR says that about 21,000 service robots for
professional use were sold worldwide in 2013 – 4% more than in 2012. Over the
period 2014–2017, its expects sales to increase to about 134,500, with an
estimated value of $18.9bn.
• During 2013, about four million service robots for personal and domestic use,
worth about $1.7bn, were sold worldwide – 28% more than in 2012. IFR estimates
that about 31 million service robots for personal use will be sold between 2014
and 2017.

33. Global-robot-population-heads-
towards-two-million-
• IFR president Arturo Baroncelli predicts that
between 2015 and 2017, the number of
installed industrial robots will grow by around
12% per year. In the Americas and Europe,
sales will rise by about 6%, and in
Asia/Australia by about 16% per year.

34. Global-robot-population-heads-
towards-two-million-
• Global robot population heads towards two
million
• drivesncontrols | Posted: 08 Oct 2014, 09:28
• Share:
• More than 200,000 industrial robots will be
installed worldwide this year – 15% more than in
2013 – and the total number in use in factories
around the world could reach two million by the
end of 2017, according to new figures released by
the International Federation of Robotics (IFR).

37. Prices

38. PRICES OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
(2016-2025)

40. PRICES OF ROBOTS
• Prices should drop -20% and performance should
raise -5% p.a. over the next decade. Recent
introduction of robots < $ 40K(e.g. Baxter, UP5)
working alongside humans is eliminating cost,
safety and proramming barriers: robots are now
afordable for SMEs.
• Even SMEs can participate as new robots cost as
little as $25K with attractive economics.
THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
Feb 2015

41. Density

45. Classification of Robots
• Industrial (automotive, electrical,…inspection)
• Military( unmanned vehicles,
wearable/exosceletons/cops, unmanned security/cops)
• Commercial
(medical/bionics-prostethics-organs-
exosceletons/surgical/micro-nano/brain-
machine,warehouse/pick, pack, sort/, agricultural,
construction, firefighter)
• Personal
(drones, cars, cleaning, education, entertainment/toys,
wearable, security, household, swams)

46. INTERACTIVE TIMELINE OF ROBOTICS

47. QUANTITY AND CLASSIFICATION OF
ROBOTS (2016-2025)
(MILITARY, INDUSTRIAL, SERVICE, PERSONAL)
AUGUST 29, 2014
ց

50. CLASSIFICATION OF ROBOTS
(MORE DETAILED) (2016-2025)

54. SERVICE ROBOTS
• Around 8.7 million service robots were sold
globally in 2009, up from some 7 million year-
on-year, according to the Frankfurt-based
International Federation of Robotics.
Of the total, household robots account for
nearly 64 percent and entertainment and
teaching robots 35 percent.

56. manufacturing, service, transportation
• Advanced robots with enhanced senses, dexterity, and
intelligence can be more practical than human labour
in manufacturing, as well as in a growing number of
service jobs, such as cleaning and maintenance.
Moreover, it is now possible to create cars, trucks,
aircraft, and boats that are completely or partly
autonomous, which could revolutionize
transportation, if regulations allow, as early as 2020
Read more at
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2016/01/
fourth-industrial-revolution-
robots.html#jdZ2ylJryoijksot.99

57. SMART ROBOTS
• Smart Robots: A.I., Learning and the Cloud
The fusion of robotics, AI, and Cloud
Computing forms the blueprint for a new
breed of machine: the “learning” robot.
Leading minds in cognitive systems and Cloud
robotics unpack what happens when these
powerful technologies are transplanted into
robots.

58. Productivity and Growth

61. productivity-and-employment-a-structural-
change

66. Industry 4.0

72. • Robots will boost productivity by 25-30% in
many industries and lower labor costs by 18%
or more in certain countries in 2015. They
could also push labor savings at least 30%
higher than they would be otherwise.
• THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP
Feb 2015

73. Competitive Advantages of Robots

74. • Capitalizing on RoboticsRobots can fundamentally change how work gets done. They can match
human performance and even improve upon it in many areas. To prepare for and profit from the
robotic megatrend, companies can start by identifying the following:
• Areas of Operations with High Labor Costs. Robotics can provide cost-saving alternatives in many
areas and complement human workers in others.
• Tasks That People Can’t, Won’t, or Shouldn’t Do. Some jobs are too hazardous, unpleasant, or
difficult for human beings—no matter how high the pay. Other tasks are just too mindless,
repetitive, and boring. Robots can liberate workers from hazardous or unappealing jobs.
• Human Skill Gaps. In Japan, developers are exploring ways robots might provide nursing and elder
care. Other scarce and needed skills and capabilities that robots can offer—such as data mining,
rapid analysis, and super speed or strength—exist at levels not present in human beings.
• Mission-Critical Applications. Tasks that demand exceptional precision, flexibility, or speed—such
as electronic-chip production—or that require maneuvering in small spaces lend themselves to
robotics.
• High Complexity. The global nature of business has given rise to convoluted supply chains and vast
supplier networks. Robotics offers a way to centrally manage and execute complex logistics and to
customize products for different markets and even for individual customers.

79. • Capitalizing on RoboticsRobots can fundamentally change how work gets done. They can match
human performance and even improve upon it in many areas. To prepare for and profit from the
robotic megatrend, companies can start by identifying the following:
• Areas of Operations with High Labor Costs. Robotics can provide cost-saving alternatives in many
areas and complement human workers in others.
• Tasks That People Can’t, Won’t, or Shouldn’t Do. Some jobs are too hazardous, unpleasant, or
difficult for human beings—no matter how high the pay. Other tasks are just too mindless,
repetitive, and boring. Robots can liberate workers from hazardous or unappealing jobs.
• Human Skill Gaps. In Japan, developers are exploring ways robots might provide nursing and elder
care. Other scarce and needed skills and capabilities that robots can offer—such as data mining,
rapid analysis, and super speed or strength—exist at levels not present in human beings.
• Mission-Critical Applications. Tasks that demand exceptional precision, flexibility, or speed—such
as electronic-chip production—or that require maneuvering in small spaces lend themselves to
robotics.
• High Complexity. The global nature of business has given rise to convoluted supply chains and vast
supplier networks. Robotics offers a way to centrally manage and execute complex logistics and to
customize products for different markets and even for individual customers.

80. Generations of Robots
• Mechanical Automation
• Intelligent/Autonomous
• Smart

81. PRODUCTIVITY OF ROBOTS

83. MECHANICAL vs. INTELLEGENT
ROBOTS
• intelligent robot is defined as a mechanical creature
that can function autonomously. “Mechanical” refers
to the fact that a robot is built, constructed; “creature”
signifies that it seems as if a robot has its own
motivation and decision-making processes; and
“functioning autonomously” means that an intelligent
robot – in line with the Industry 4.0 vision – can
perceive and act, and perhaps even reason, in the
foreseeable future. Altogether, this goes further than
traditional automation, which is directed toward the
predictable repetition of actions, even if they are now
becoming increasingly complex

84. New Generation
Intelligent Robots
Humans delegate certain sensory, mobile and intelligent qualities to
machines.
• Introduction to ai Robotics emphasizes the following five qualities
of intelligent robots:
1. mobility (legs, arms, neck, wrists),
2. perception (sight, hearing, smell and touch),
3. control via a digital central nervous system and
4. a digital brain function, energy supply, and finally,
5. communication via voice, gestures and hearing function.
Unmanned vehicles on land, in the air and under water are important
service applications outside the domain of industrial robots. But there
are also modular robots under development, which can operate
collectively, in swarms.

85. productivity-and-employment-a-structural-
change

86. SMART ROBOTS
• Smart Robots: A.I., Learning and the Cloud
The fusion of robotics, AI, and Cloud
Computing forms the blueprint for a new
breed of machine: the “learning” robot.
Leading minds in cognitive systems and Cloud
robotics unpack what happens when these
powerful technologies are transplanted into
robots.

87. Industry 4.0

89. Global-robot-population-heads-
towards-two-million

91. With the workforce aging and labor costs rising, global sales of service robots are
estimated to jump more than 26-fold to $85.5 billion in 2018 from $3.2 billion in 2008,
according to the knowledge economy ministry data. The global robot market could
reach $190 billion in 2020.

92. who is leading in self-driving cars
October 22, 2015

97. film “Ex Machina”
2015

99. A.F.A. - Powered Exoskeleton
Suit for Firefighter

102. The Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine
Engineering facility in Okpo-dong, South
Korea has begun testing a prototype version
of a robotic exoskeleton that will let dock
workers lift 220-pound objects in…

103. Early “Steam Men” Illustrations

105. Bearded Robot - 1909 – Occultus
/ Barbarossa ( Early Futurism /
Vintage Photography / VIntage
Robot )

107. Neil Mizen in his "Man-Amplifier"
mockup power suit at Cornell
Aeronautical Labs. 1962

108. 1971 - A computer controlled multi-task
powered exoskeleton for paraplegic
patients - Jack George Grundmann / Ali
Seireg (American) - cybern...

109. New Rio de Janeiro police department —
Компьютерная графика и анимация

112. Man Vs Machine...Or
Is It Man And
Machine?

113. Still of Peter
Weller in
RoboCop (1987)

114. Buddy the companion robot will be at
CES 2016.

115. Teaching robot Engkey stands in front of students at an elementary school in Daegu.
(AFP)
(household robots account for nearly 64 percent of all service robots and
entertainment and teaching robots 35 percent)

116. household robots account for nearly 64 percent օֆ ալլ սեռվիցե ռօբօտս and entertainment and teaching
robots 35 percent
Robot Butler: Big promises in a little humanoid package/ robotic member of the family / Robot Butler: a
personal assistant, valet and majordomo all wrapped in one polycarbonate package.

117. Toshiba's ChihiraAico humanoid robot won the unofficial “Creepiest Product
Award” at the 2015 International CES. ChihiraAico is designed to resemble a
32-year-old Japanese hostess that makes conversation, sings and could one
day play classical music or take care of people with dementia.

119. SynTouch Gets $2.5M in Grants for
New Machine Touch Applications

120. robots-are-coming
NEW GENERATION/ADVANCED / INTELLIGENT
ROBOTICS

125. HUBO, a multifunctional walking
humanoid robot
an adult-sized automaton that can climb stairs and enter and exit
a car

128. cloud computing, big data, robots and AI will cause the
biggest changes.
WEF 2016

129. The Second Machine Age
• On the other side are optimists best represented by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew
McAfee, the authors of The Second Machine Age, who are confident that another
golden age lies ahead. The two argue that it takes time for methods of production
to adapt to new technologies, which is why their effects aren’t immediately visible
in productivity stats. In their book, published in 2014, Brynjolfsson and McAfee
reference Paul David, an economic historian. After digging through records of
American factories when they were first electrified, around the turn of the 20th
century, David found it took several decades for plants to retool to optimize the
new source of power. Writes Brynjolfsson: “Only after 30 years—long enough for
the original managers to retire and be replaced by a new generation—did factory
layouts change.” In other words, it wasn’t electricity but the eventual shift to
assembly-line production that eventually kicked off a productivity boom.
• Brynjolfsson says companies are in the early stages of figuring out how to retool
their processes to take advantage of digital tools such as big data and machine
learning. He also says our current method of measuring gross domestic output,
and by extension productivity, does a poor job of capturing the value of free
goods. “If you’re giving an app away for free that does something you used to pay
for, then it’s going to initially make GDP smaller,” Brynjolfsson says.

130. robots will increase productivity as much as 30 percent in some
industries, including machinery and appliance manufacturing,
and lower total labor costs 18 percent
• Hal Sirkin, a senior partner at Boston Consulting Group, points out
that robots currently perform only about 10 percent of
manufacturing tasks. “We project that over the next 10 years, that
might increase up to 20 or 25 percent. So there is a long way to go
on that productivity curve.” Sirkin and his colleagues at BCG
forecast that by 2025, wide-scale adoption of advanced robots will
increase productivity as much as 30 percent in some industries,
including machinery and appliance manufacturing, and lower total
labor costs 18 percent.
• Whatever you believe about technology’s role in productivity,
there’s broad consensus that the outlook for unskilled workers isn’t
good. In a speech this November, Bank of England Chief Economist
Andy Haldane said he and his staff had modeled the effects of
automation on the U.S. and U.K. labor markets and concluded
that 80 million jobs in the U.S. and 15 million in the U.K. were at
risk.

131. The bottom line: Tech boosters say automation and other
digital innovations haven’t penetrated enough to show up in
economic data.
• A BCG report from September 2015 that examined the
impact advanced technology could have on Germany’s
manufacturing sector concluded that if 50 percent of
companies adopted new tools such as autonomous robots
and 3D printing by 2025, industrywide revenue could rise
1 percent, leading to an additional 350,000 jobs. If revenue
were to rise only 0.5 percent, however, the result would be
a net loss of 40,000 jobs. “It’s a real possibility that if we do
nothing, that inequality can get worse and more people
end up getting left behind,” Brynjolfsson says. “But it’s not
inevitable, and it comes down to a set of policy decisions
we make. If through technology we can create more and
more wealth for less and less work, then shame on us if
that’s a bad thing.”

132. The Rise and Fall of American Growth
• To listen to Gordon, not very. “I see stasis
everywhere,” says the scholar, whose new
book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth,
posits that the U.S. economy’s best days are
behind it. “Stasis in the way offices work,
stasis in the way retailers work, and stasis in
the way factories produce goods.”

133. The Great
Stagnation
How America Ate All the Low-
Hanging Fruit of Modern History
• Annual productivity growth in the U.S. averaged 1.5 percent from the first quarter of 2008
through the same period in 2014. That’s less than half the 3.5 percent rate during the previous
boom, which lasted from 1996 to 2003.
• The data have become fodder for a lively debate about the potential of new technologies to lift
growth. On one side are pessimists such as Gordon and Tyler Cowen, an economist at George
Mason University and the author of The Great Stagnation, a 2011 best-seller whose thesis is
summed up in its subtitle, which in part reads: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of
Modern History. Another member of this camp is John Fernald, an economist at the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco who’s considered an expert in measuring technology’s contribution
to productivity. In a 2014 research paper, Fernald made the case that even though IT industries
contributed greatly to the productivity boom of the late ’90s and early 2000s, IT-related
productivity then slowed dramatically.

134. premature deindustrialization

135. premature deindustrialization
• Recent developments in robotics and additive
manufacturing now allow firms in advanced
economies to locate production closer to
domestic markets in automated factories,” the
report states. That contrasts with prior waves
of technological innovation, which improved
trade processes and international
communication and saw manufacturing jobs
shift offshore in search of cheap labor.

136. structural unemployment
• And as if unemployment in parts of the global economy isn't bad
enough, machines will take over our jobs leading to "structural
unemployment" that "may be permanent", according to WEF, as
economies struggle to absorb the unemployed. Around 47 percent
of U.S. jobs could be lost to computers over the next two decades,
according to a 2013 study published by Oxford University
• "History suggests that where automation is available the market
will reach out for it and the question is what new kinds of
employment and work arise from that," Nigel Shadbolt, professor
of artificial intelligence at the University of Southampton, told CNBC
by phone.
• "It is not that we will all end up flipping burgers but that more of us
will have more time to do more work in different areas – social
care, education. There are other ways of creating wealth