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Rebellion, Political Violence, and 
Shadow Crimes in the Bangsamoro 
, 
Alert BCMS 2011-2013 
General Report
Example of a Police Blotter Report 1 
Incident Type 
Date and Time of the Incident 
Place of the Incident 
Actors involved in Conflict 
Manifestation 
Cause of the incident
Example of a Media Report 2 
Place, date and time of the 
incident 
Actors involved in conflict 
Manifestation 
Human cost 
Cause of conflict 
(Newspaper: Bandera, May 7 2013) 
BANGSAMORO CONFLICT MONITORING SYSTEM
Headline 1: Most incidents are found in the mainland. 
Conflict incidents, per province, per year
Headline 2: The story changes when we look at 
per-capita conflict. 
Conflict incidence per 100,000 persons, per province, per year, 2011-2013 
100 
90 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
2011 
2012 
2013 
Basilan Maguindanao Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi Tawi 
Basilan Maguindanao Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi Tawi
..and also when we look at conflict density. 
Violence density, per province, per year , 2011-2013 
Basilan Maguindanao Sulu Lanao del Sur Tawi Tawi 
90 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
Basilan Maguindanao Sulu Lanao del Sur Tawi Tawi 
2011 
2012 
2013 
Violence density refers to the number of violent incidents per 1,000 square 
kilometers
Headline 3: Violent conflicts caused by illicit/ 
shadow economies and political issues 
Causes of violent conflict , 2011-2013
Headline 4: Most violent conflicts are horizontal in nature 
.
Violence from the MILF has declined significantly. 
Number of conflict incidents involving the MILF , 2011-2013 
Number of conflicts in which MILF was involved, 
Per Year, 2011-2013 
. 
45 
40 
35 
30 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
0 
2011 2012 2013 
2011 2012 2013
Violent conflict from private armed groups, including 
organized crime groups. 
Violence involving crime groups , 2011-2013 
. 
30 
25 
20 
10 
5 
0 
15 
2011 
2012 
2013 
2011 
2012 
2013 
2011 
2012 
2013
Headline 5: New threat groups such as the BIFF are 
increasing the level of violent conflict. 
Number of violent conflicts in which BIFF forces were involved , 2011-2013 
. 
40 
35 
30 
25 
15 
10 
5 
0 
20 
2011 
2012 
2013 
2011 
2012 
2013 
2011 
2012 
2013
Headline 7: Civilians are the main actors in violent 
conflict—mostly as victims. 
Distribution of violent conflict, by actor, 2011-2013 
Distribution of conflict Incidents, by Actor, 
2011-2013 (total) 
. 
Civilians 
Gov Security group 
Threat Groups/Organized 
Syndicates 
Rebel Groups 
Businessmen 
Local politicians 
Family/Clans 
Civilians 
60% 
Rebel Groups 
Threat Groups 
6% 
Government 
Security Groups 
19% 
5%
Phenomenon of morphing and violent strings 
Shooting incidents at Brgy.Tubig Kutah, Siasi, 
Sulu 
On May 30, 2013 at around 9:45 in the morning, 
Madelo Basaning and his wife Elbita Basaning were on 
their way home on board a banca headed towards 
Kalangan Island were shot to death by unidentified 
suspects. The alleged motive was robbery and rido. 
At around 12:00 PM of the same date, another 
shooting incident occurred in said place where Ujun 
Sabtura and Sabirin Sahi were killed and Teuron 
Jamud and Hanipa Sabturani were wounded. 
Investigation disclosed that the suspects behind the 
incident were relatives of the slain couple killed in 
the morning. 
. 
300 families displaced due to encounter 
On May 13, 2012, an armed group led by Commander Dagadas who 
was part of the group of MILF Commander Sagadan allegedly 
harassed the group of MNLF Commander Menanimbong in Katian, 
North Cotabato. 
Three days after the said harassment, on May 16, 2012, the group 
of Commander Menanimbong had an armed encounter with the 
groups of Commander Sagadan and Commander Dagadas at Sitio 
Misalan, NC. One civilian was killed in the gunbattle. 
Three days later again on May 19, 2012, at around 4pm, Commander 
Karim Sagadan of the Moro Islamic Liberation front crossed paths 
again with Commander Teo Menanimbong of the Moro National 
Liberation Front that resulted in a prolonged gun battle between 
the two insurgent groups. Seven (7) people were killed and around 
300 families were displaced.
Headline 9: Seasons matter—elections, 
lean seasons, school seasons 
Violence incidence, per month, 2011-2013 
. 
130 
110 
90 
70 
50 
30 
10 
-10 
2011 
2012 
2013 
Number of Conflict Incidents, 
by Month, 2011-2013
Temporal issues that shape violent conflict 
Aggregate number of rido incidents, by month, 2011-2013 
. 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
0 
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Sideways Graph: Human cost 2011-2013 
.
Sideways Graph: Causes and Human Costs 2011-2013 
.
Headline 11: The good news is that average 
trend lines are declining. 
.
. 
Conclusions: 
The enduring and newly emerging causes 
of violent conflict in the Bangsamoro 
1. Persistent clan violence and shadow economies as pervasive triggers of violent 
conflict. 
2. Dominance of horizontal over vertical violence 
3. Multi-causal nature of violence, the phenomenon of violent strings, deploying 
hybrid solutions. 
4. Importance of conflict magnitude  magnitude matters, costs count!
Thank You!

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Francisco Lara, International Alert | Philippines

  • 1. Rebellion, Political Violence, and Shadow Crimes in the Bangsamoro , Alert BCMS 2011-2013 General Report
  • 2. Example of a Police Blotter Report 1 Incident Type Date and Time of the Incident Place of the Incident Actors involved in Conflict Manifestation Cause of the incident
  • 3. Example of a Media Report 2 Place, date and time of the incident Actors involved in conflict Manifestation Human cost Cause of conflict (Newspaper: Bandera, May 7 2013) BANGSAMORO CONFLICT MONITORING SYSTEM
  • 4. Headline 1: Most incidents are found in the mainland. Conflict incidents, per province, per year
  • 5. Headline 2: The story changes when we look at per-capita conflict. Conflict incidence per 100,000 persons, per province, per year, 2011-2013 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2012 2013 Basilan Maguindanao Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi Tawi Basilan Maguindanao Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi Tawi
  • 6. ..and also when we look at conflict density. Violence density, per province, per year , 2011-2013 Basilan Maguindanao Sulu Lanao del Sur Tawi Tawi 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Basilan Maguindanao Sulu Lanao del Sur Tawi Tawi 2011 2012 2013 Violence density refers to the number of violent incidents per 1,000 square kilometers
  • 7. Headline 3: Violent conflicts caused by illicit/ shadow economies and political issues Causes of violent conflict , 2011-2013
  • 8. Headline 4: Most violent conflicts are horizontal in nature .
  • 9. Violence from the MILF has declined significantly. Number of conflict incidents involving the MILF , 2011-2013 Number of conflicts in which MILF was involved, Per Year, 2011-2013 . 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013
  • 10. Violent conflict from private armed groups, including organized crime groups. Violence involving crime groups , 2011-2013 . 30 25 20 10 5 0 15 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013
  • 11. Headline 5: New threat groups such as the BIFF are increasing the level of violent conflict. Number of violent conflicts in which BIFF forces were involved , 2011-2013 . 40 35 30 25 15 10 5 0 20 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013
  • 12. Headline 7: Civilians are the main actors in violent conflict—mostly as victims. Distribution of violent conflict, by actor, 2011-2013 Distribution of conflict Incidents, by Actor, 2011-2013 (total) . Civilians Gov Security group Threat Groups/Organized Syndicates Rebel Groups Businessmen Local politicians Family/Clans Civilians 60% Rebel Groups Threat Groups 6% Government Security Groups 19% 5%
  • 13. Phenomenon of morphing and violent strings Shooting incidents at Brgy.Tubig Kutah, Siasi, Sulu On May 30, 2013 at around 9:45 in the morning, Madelo Basaning and his wife Elbita Basaning were on their way home on board a banca headed towards Kalangan Island were shot to death by unidentified suspects. The alleged motive was robbery and rido. At around 12:00 PM of the same date, another shooting incident occurred in said place where Ujun Sabtura and Sabirin Sahi were killed and Teuron Jamud and Hanipa Sabturani were wounded. Investigation disclosed that the suspects behind the incident were relatives of the slain couple killed in the morning. . 300 families displaced due to encounter On May 13, 2012, an armed group led by Commander Dagadas who was part of the group of MILF Commander Sagadan allegedly harassed the group of MNLF Commander Menanimbong in Katian, North Cotabato. Three days after the said harassment, on May 16, 2012, the group of Commander Menanimbong had an armed encounter with the groups of Commander Sagadan and Commander Dagadas at Sitio Misalan, NC. One civilian was killed in the gunbattle. Three days later again on May 19, 2012, at around 4pm, Commander Karim Sagadan of the Moro Islamic Liberation front crossed paths again with Commander Teo Menanimbong of the Moro National Liberation Front that resulted in a prolonged gun battle between the two insurgent groups. Seven (7) people were killed and around 300 families were displaced.
  • 14. Headline 9: Seasons matter—elections, lean seasons, school seasons Violence incidence, per month, 2011-2013 . 130 110 90 70 50 30 10 -10 2011 2012 2013 Number of Conflict Incidents, by Month, 2011-2013
  • 15. Temporal issues that shape violent conflict Aggregate number of rido incidents, by month, 2011-2013 . 25 20 15 10 5 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December
  • 16. Sideways Graph: Human cost 2011-2013 .
  • 17. Sideways Graph: Causes and Human Costs 2011-2013 .
  • 18. Headline 11: The good news is that average trend lines are declining. .
  • 19. . Conclusions: The enduring and newly emerging causes of violent conflict in the Bangsamoro 1. Persistent clan violence and shadow economies as pervasive triggers of violent conflict. 2. Dominance of horizontal over vertical violence 3. Multi-causal nature of violence, the phenomenon of violent strings, deploying hybrid solutions. 4. Importance of conflict magnitude  magnitude matters, costs count!

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur account for more than half, declining trend in Basilan and Tawi-Tawi. Increased incidents in the mainland reinforces the notion of a bad neighbourhood.
  2. Basilan takes the lead.
  3. Basilan continues to lead, but Sulu moves to third.
  4. Political issues were dominant from 2012-2013, shadow economies leapt to the front when we include 2011. Note that resource-based conflict is lower than what would be expected based on the discourse and literature on Muslim Mindanao. Note too that identity-based violent conflict remains substantial—but not as significant as many scholars argued. Well, not all scholars actually—Abinales, Sidel, and Mc Kenna had argued the same in the case of Muslim-Christian violence. Note as well that many accounts of violent conflict revolve around personal, rather than collective, outburst of violence—see EJI numbers.
  5. Note, however, that the rise of BIFF-related violence is also significantly caused by inter or intra-insurgent violence as well—which still forms part of horizontal conflict.
  6. Note, however, that because of the phenomenon of conflict morphing, it was difficult to distinguish between perpetrators and victims.
  7. Clan feuding partly explains the phenomenon of violent strings, but not in all cases. Violent strings amplify rounds of violence that come in pairs, threes, fours, or more. New sources of conflict in the shadow economy such as pyramiding scams exhibit the same violent strings.
  8. Note the perennial spikes during March, May, August-September. Note the sudden spike in violent conflict from October--November in 2013. March spikes coincide with end of the school season. May spikes coincide with election season and start of the school season. August-September spikes coincide with the agricultural lean months. October-November spike in 2013 coincides with barangay elections—higher amount of conflict than in May—suggesting that community-level, face to face violence, is more intense.
  9. Clan feuding coincides with the lean months. Clan feuding was neither stemmed by the Holy Month of Ramadan.
  10. THREE POINTS TO CONSIDER: Without a doubt, the end of the GPH-MILF conflict will significantly reduce violent conflict. But it would be mistake to think that violent conflict will decline to negligible levels just because a political settlement has been reached with the MILF and the BIFF. Identity and resource-based violent conflict moves to 2nd and 3rd slot when costs are calculkated.