This report analyzes rebellion, political violence, and shadow crimes in the Bangsamoro region of the Philippines from 2011-2013. It finds that while the largest number of incidents occurred in mainland provinces, the density of violence was highest in Basilan, Maguindanao, Sulu, Lanao del Sur, and Tawi Tawi when measured per capita and area. The causes of violence included illicit/shadow economies and political issues. Civilians comprised most victims at 60%, while violence declined from the MILF but increased from new threat groups like the BIFF. Seasonal factors such as elections, lean seasons, and school years influenced violence levels. The enduring causes of conflict included persistent clan violence and shadow
2. Example of a Police Blotter Report 1
Incident Type
Date and Time of the Incident
Place of the Incident
Actors involved in Conflict
Manifestation
Cause of the incident
3. Example of a Media Report 2
Place, date and time of the
incident
Actors involved in conflict
Manifestation
Human cost
Cause of conflict
(Newspaper: Bandera, May 7 2013)
BANGSAMORO CONFLICT MONITORING SYSTEM
4. Headline 1: Most incidents are found in the mainland.
Conflict incidents, per province, per year
5. Headline 2: The story changes when we look at
per-capita conflict.
Conflict incidence per 100,000 persons, per province, per year, 2011-2013
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2011
2012
2013
Basilan Maguindanao Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi Tawi
Basilan Maguindanao Lanao del Sur Sulu Tawi Tawi
6. ..and also when we look at conflict density.
Violence density, per province, per year , 2011-2013
Basilan Maguindanao Sulu Lanao del Sur Tawi Tawi
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Basilan Maguindanao Sulu Lanao del Sur Tawi Tawi
2011
2012
2013
Violence density refers to the number of violent incidents per 1,000 square
kilometers
7. Headline 3: Violent conflicts caused by illicit/
shadow economies and political issues
Causes of violent conflict , 2011-2013
9. Violence from the MILF has declined significantly.
Number of conflict incidents involving the MILF , 2011-2013
Number of conflicts in which MILF was involved,
Per Year, 2011-2013
.
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2011 2012 2013
2011 2012 2013
11. Headline 5: New threat groups such as the BIFF are
increasing the level of violent conflict.
Number of violent conflicts in which BIFF forces were involved , 2011-2013
.
40
35
30
25
15
10
5
0
20
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
2011
2012
2013
12. Headline 7: Civilians are the main actors in violent
conflict—mostly as victims.
Distribution of violent conflict, by actor, 2011-2013
Distribution of conflict Incidents, by Actor,
2011-2013 (total)
.
Civilians
Gov Security group
Threat Groups/Organized
Syndicates
Rebel Groups
Businessmen
Local politicians
Family/Clans
Civilians
60%
Rebel Groups
Threat Groups
6%
Government
Security Groups
19%
5%
13. Phenomenon of morphing and violent strings
Shooting incidents at Brgy.Tubig Kutah, Siasi,
Sulu
On May 30, 2013 at around 9:45 in the morning,
Madelo Basaning and his wife Elbita Basaning were on
their way home on board a banca headed towards
Kalangan Island were shot to death by unidentified
suspects. The alleged motive was robbery and rido.
At around 12:00 PM of the same date, another
shooting incident occurred in said place where Ujun
Sabtura and Sabirin Sahi were killed and Teuron
Jamud and Hanipa Sabturani were wounded.
Investigation disclosed that the suspects behind the
incident were relatives of the slain couple killed in
the morning.
.
300 families displaced due to encounter
On May 13, 2012, an armed group led by Commander Dagadas who
was part of the group of MILF Commander Sagadan allegedly
harassed the group of MNLF Commander Menanimbong in Katian,
North Cotabato.
Three days after the said harassment, on May 16, 2012, the group
of Commander Menanimbong had an armed encounter with the
groups of Commander Sagadan and Commander Dagadas at Sitio
Misalan, NC. One civilian was killed in the gunbattle.
Three days later again on May 19, 2012, at around 4pm, Commander
Karim Sagadan of the Moro Islamic Liberation front crossed paths
again with Commander Teo Menanimbong of the Moro National
Liberation Front that resulted in a prolonged gun battle between
the two insurgent groups. Seven (7) people were killed and around
300 families were displaced.
14. Headline 9: Seasons matter—elections,
lean seasons, school seasons
Violence incidence, per month, 2011-2013
.
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
-10
2011
2012
2013
Number of Conflict Incidents,
by Month, 2011-2013
15. Temporal issues that shape violent conflict
Aggregate number of rido incidents, by month, 2011-2013
.
25
20
15
10
5
0
January February March April May June July August September October November December
18. Headline 11: The good news is that average
trend lines are declining.
.
19. .
Conclusions:
The enduring and newly emerging causes
of violent conflict in the Bangsamoro
1. Persistent clan violence and shadow economies as pervasive triggers of violent
conflict.
2. Dominance of horizontal over vertical violence
3. Multi-causal nature of violence, the phenomenon of violent strings, deploying
hybrid solutions.
4. Importance of conflict magnitude magnitude matters, costs count!
Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur account for more than half, declining trend in Basilan and Tawi-Tawi.
Increased incidents in the mainland reinforces the notion of a bad neighbourhood.
Basilan takes the lead.
Basilan continues to lead, but Sulu moves to third.
Political issues were dominant from 2012-2013, shadow economies leapt to the front when we include 2011.
Note that resource-based conflict is lower than what would be expected based on the discourse and literature on Muslim Mindanao.
Note too that identity-based violent conflict remains substantial—but not as significant as many scholars argued. Well, not all scholars actually—Abinales, Sidel, and Mc Kenna had argued the same in the case of Muslim-Christian violence.
Note as well that many accounts of violent conflict revolve around personal, rather than collective, outburst of violence—see EJI numbers.
Note, however, that the rise of BIFF-related violence is also significantly caused by inter or intra-insurgent violence as well—which still forms part of horizontal conflict.
Note, however, that because of the phenomenon of conflict morphing, it was difficult to distinguish between perpetrators and victims.
Clan feuding partly explains the phenomenon of violent strings, but not in all cases.
Violent strings amplify rounds of violence that come in pairs, threes, fours, or more.
New sources of conflict in the shadow economy such as pyramiding scams exhibit the same violent strings.
Note the perennial spikes during March, May, August-September. Note the sudden spike in violent conflict from October--November in 2013.
March spikes coincide with end of the school season.
May spikes coincide with election season and start of the school season.
August-September spikes coincide with the agricultural lean months.
October-November spike in 2013 coincides with barangay elections—higher amount of conflict than in May—suggesting that community-level, face to face violence, is more intense.
Clan feuding coincides with the lean months.
Clan feuding was neither stemmed by the Holy Month of Ramadan.
THREE POINTS TO CONSIDER:
Without a doubt, the end of the GPH-MILF conflict will significantly reduce violent conflict.
But it would be mistake to think that violent conflict will decline to negligible levels just because a political settlement has been reached with the MILF and the BIFF.
Identity and resource-based violent conflict moves to 2nd and 3rd slot when costs are calculkated.