Demographics and housing data for Lake Elsinore

1. The Voice for Real Estate
Economic Development Workforce Committee

2. • Lake Elsinore Demographics
• Lake Elsinore Housing Market
• What Lies Ahead
• CA / National Trends
• Forecast
• A little politics
Lots to cover – Not enough time

3. Lake Elsinore
Demographics

5. Lake Elsinore Demographic Shift
2016
7% 3%
2017
2018
3% 4%
6% 3%
2019
1% 3%
2020

6. Lake Elsinore Demographics
2019

8. Lake Elsinore Population Data

9. Lake Elsinore Population Data

10. Lake Elsinore Economic Data

11. Lake Elsinore Employment Data

12. Lake Elsinore Education Data
High paying jobs follow a highly educated workforce

13. Lake Elsinore Commuter Data
40% Commute
45 minutes or more
76% Commute
20 minutes or more
83% Drive Alone
(Pre-COVID)

14. Lake Elsinore Business Data
2020

15. Local
Market
Stats

16. Regional Housing Data

17. Lake Elsinore Sales History
7%

18. Lake Elsinore Median Price History
6%

19. Lake Elsinore Median Price
August 2020 SFR Transaction Value*:
Lake Elsinore $ $49,835,316
* Revenue generated by single family residential transactions for the month.

20. Market Activity

21. Demand
August Demand
Supply 78
Pending 123
Demand 117
Days on Market 8
Months Inventory 3 weeks
Absorption 91%

22. Your ‘Average’ House, August 2018

23. The
COVID
Economy

24. Housing in the Age of Covod

26. Assessing the COVID Market

27. Unemployment, Delinquency, Stress

28. Economic Contraction

29. Businesses Large and Small

30. Increased Purchase Activity

31. Motivated by < 3% Interest Rates

32. Forbearance & Deferment

33. Delinquencies Climbing

34. Sales Rebound Quickly

35. Median Price Sets New High

36. 2020
Forecast

37. Defining the Recovery

38. Sales down in ‘20, bounce in ‘21
Prices continue slow climb
yty% chg. in
home sales
Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 Q221 2020 2021
NAR 5.2% -28.1% -13.4% -6.3% -5.1% 39.5% -10.7% 11.1%
Fannie Mae 5.2% -22.1% -10.3% -17.6% -10.5% 24.2% -11.4% 8.6%
MBA 5.2% -10.4% -4.2% 0.1% 0.2% 17.8% -2.3% 8.2%
yty % chg. in
home price
Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 Q221 2020 2021
NAR 7.7% 5.5% 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.8% 2.1%
Fannie Mae 7.7% 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% -0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.1%
MBA 7.7% 4.3% 5.1% 4.4% 6.1% 1.3% 5.3% 3.1%

39. Remote working changes the
“where” for homebuying
• Three quarters of those who work from
home because of the coronavirus say
they want to continue.
• Two-thirds say they would consider
moving if given that flexibility.
• Remote working promotes homebuying
in secondary cities, more remote
locations with larger home.
• Half of those who are able to work from
home say they would be open to a
commute that was up to 45 minutes or
longer. SOURCE: Zillow, The Harris Poll

40. page
Home and homeownership
become even more valuable
• Home is more than just a roof and
a shelter
• Remote working means spending
more time at home
• A home is not just a place to live
but also a place to work & learn
• Those who work from home may
also need a bigger house if more
space is dedicated as the office

41. page
Retail and office spaces could also
be used as residential real estate
SOURCE: Loopnet, UBS, Global Workplace Analytics
COVID-19 impact
- According to a UBS report, the U.S. retail industry appears to stand to
lose 11% to 17% of its total store count by 2025.
- In the next five years, 100,000 retail stores will close nationwide, and the
number of closed stores could rise as high as 150,000.
- Global Workplace Analytics predicts that 30% of people will work from
home multiple days per week within a couple of years. Office space
demand may decline as remote working becomes a new normal.
Opportunity
- Vacant retail and office space could be converted into residential units,
which would help to alleviate the shortage supply in the housing market.

42. page
Turning malls into homes
SOURCE: Business Insiders, Forbes,
Recycling mall spaces?
• A survey found that malls are at the
top of the list of places to avoid if the
outbreak worsens.
• RetailNext reports that 97% of the 450
brick-and-mortar retail executives it
surveyed have closed some or all of
their doors.
• Restaurants and movie theaters were
the first casualties of social-
distancing public health protocols
• JC Penny, J. Crew, Neiman Marcus
filed for bankruptcy

43. Let’s talk politics!

44. State Policies – 2020 Session
• 3,374 Assembly Bills submitted during 2019-2020 session
• 1,712 Senate Bills submitted during 2019-2020 session
• 370 various ACR, HR, SCA, SJR, etc
• 5,426 measures proposed
• 2020 session was truncated by COVID by nearly 60 days –
unfinished business
• Members encouraged to pull ‘unnecessary’ bills
• Final push witnessed not only normal partisan wrangling but
intra-party squabbles between Senate and Assembly
Democrats.
• Only 12 of 94 bills acted on by the SWCLC made it all the way
through the process relatively unscathed.
• Record number of amended and gut-and-amdn bills this
session.

45. SWCLC Recommends: