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Crimean Occupation Tax

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Crimean Occupation Tax (COT)
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Tax on all Russian energy imported in the EU:
Oil, Gas, Coal
Medium intensity
Gradually increasing up to 25%

Benefits:
Easy to understand in EU & Russia
Aimed at restoring International law & Borders
Allows market to reduce EU energy dependence on Russia
Generates revenue to save energy
Funds Ukraine
Russia controls cancellation

Project COT Revenue:
€25 Billion averaged annually
€20 Billion EU
€5 Billion Ukraine (grants)
COT -> energy efficiency fund €1 invest -> €2 gain
EU countries that pay COT tax
with most initial pain -> get most future gain
80% of initial pain stays in country
As of 2016 Russia funds COT 100% to preserve EU income
initial pain countries get gain pro rata
Russia funds 50% of 2016-2020 EU energy preservation investments

COT impact on Russia:
Less government income
Russian government is largely funded through energy export tax
Less money for military
No to negative economic growth 2015-2020
Alternative customers are not easy to obtain
Important players not really in need
China, US
No margin for Russian export tax in recent China gas deal
Reachable only through expensive LNG transport
No marging for Russian export tax
subsidizing COT tax is cheaper for Russia


COT impact on EU:
Reduced dependency on Russian energy
Stage one initial pain but funds Ukraine
Russia cannot afford to lose EU market : Russia energy price + COT = market price
Stage two Russia funds Ukraine for duration of Crimean occupation + 50% of EU energy efficiency effort
Worst case: Russian EU supply stop would cause a budget reduction of €223 billion to just €89 billion = economic suicide
Saudi Arabia will supply Russia oil shortfall
Coal from US, Canada, South Africa
Gas substituted through startup of 10 nuclear power plants
Gas substituted through coal


Sources: European Council, European Commission

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Crimean Occupation Tax

  1. 1. Crimean Occupation Tax (Confidential draft) Presentation of H. Van Rompuy President of the European Council to the European Council
  2. 2. Crimean Occupation Tax (COT) • Tax on all Russian energy imported in the EU: Oil, Gas, Coal • Medium intensity • Gradually increasing up to 25% Source: European Council
  3. 3. Benefits • Easy to understand in EU & Russia • Aimed at restoring International law & Borders • Allows market to reduce EU energy dependence on Russia • Generates revenue to save energy • Funds Ukraine • Russia controls cancellation
  4. 4. Projected COT Revenue • €25 Billion averaged annually – €20 Billion EU – €5 Billion Ukraine (grants) • COT -> energy efficiency fund €1 invest -> €2 gain • Countries that pay COT tax – with most initial pain -> get most future gain – 80% of initial pain stays in country • As of 2016 Russia funds COT 100% to preserve EU income – initial pain countries get gain pro rata • Russia funds 50% of 2016-2020 EU energy preservation investments Source: European Council
  5. 5. Energy Efficiency is Key Estimated savings from current commitments on energy efficiency Source: European Commission
  6. 6. Source: European Commission Reaping the Benefits of a Fully integrated energy market up to 2030 Connecting and Diversifying
  7. 7. COT impact on Russia • Less government income – Russian government is largely funded through energy export tax – Less money for military • No to negative economic growth 2015-2020 • Alternative customers are not easy to obtain – Important players not really in need – China, US – No margin for Russian export tax in recent China gas deal – Reachable only through expensive LNG transport • No margin for Russian export tax • subsidizing COT tax is cheaper for Russia
  8. 8. COT impact on EU • Reduced dependency on Russian energy • Stage one initial pain but funds Ukraine • Russia cannot afford to lose EU market : Russia energy price + COT = market price • Stage two Russia funds Ukraine for duration of Crimean occupation + 50% of EU energy efficiency effort Source: European Council
  9. 9. Worst case scenario • Russian stops all energy supplies to EU • Causes Russian budget reduction of €223 billion to just €89 billion = economic suicide • EU alternatives in place: – Saudi Arabia will supply Russia oil shortfall – Coal from US, Canada, South Africa – Gas substituted through startup of 10 nuclear power plants – Gas substituted through coal

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