Rptr4202 ppm unit 1 org pdf

RPTR4202: INTRODUCTION TO PROJECT
PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT
CRP 2018/19
Instructor: Mr. Gerald G. Mnyone
ggm0766584566@gmail.com
UNIT I

2
1.Concepts of projects , programs
strategies and policy
1.1 Project
Meaning
 Any undertaking with a defined goal
 Has finite starting point
 Has finite ending point
 Considers cost, time , quality

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1.1 Project
Characteristics
 It is specific in issues – malaria , HIV/AIDS
 Has a sense of interlined activities
 Targets specific group
 Has finite starting and ending time …one year
 Has one goal

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1.1 Project
Types of projects
 Sector based
 Institutional based
 Investment based
 Profit and not for profit

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1.2 Program
Meaning
 Series of projects with coordinated
activities to address a certain issue
 Large in scope
 There are several projects
 Example …ASDP, MMES, MMEM, WFP

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1.2 Program
Characteristics
Criteria Description
Time More than one year
Cost Huge
Goals Many
Scope Broad
Specificity General and complex

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1.3 Policy
 Set of principles to guide decision making
 Plan with statements or instruments to guide
decision making
 Private , public policies
 Distributive, regulatory policies
 All projects emanate from policies
 Example Mineral policy 2009 etc

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1.4 Strategic Plan
 Set of means to achieve an end in a medium
term period
 Plan with means to achieve a certain objective
 How to achieve a certain objective
 Includes partnership, diversification, merge,
resource mobilization
 Derived from a policy
 Example MKUKUTA II, etc

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Link of plans
Policy plan Strategic plan Programs/
Projects
Act
Activities

1.Concepts of projects ,
programs strategies and policy
1.5 Project Planning
Is the part of project Management, which
relates to the use of schedules such as
Gantt Charts to plan and subsequently
report the progress within the project
environment
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Project plans are considered to consist of
three fundamental “dimensions”
 Cost: how much money that will be
spent and how it’s budgeted over time
 Time: how long it will take to execute
work—individually and as a total project
 Scope: what is to be done
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1.6 Project Management
Is the practice of initiating, Planning,
executing, controlling and closing the work
of a team to achieve specific goals and
meet specific success criteria at the
specified time.
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1.Concepts of projects ,
programs strategies and policy
Key elements in PM are:-
scope, requirements,
time/schedule, costs, resources,
communication, logistics and
procurement, quality, risk,
integration, change control, ethics,
governance
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Mgt style
Type Description
Participatory Involve all key stakeholders
Increases understanding
Directing Used in tight deadlines and quick
decision
Top –down approach
Team work Form groups to pool knowledge

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Responsibility of a Project Manager
Role Functions
Leading Provide strategic direction – conflict mgt,
building paternership and team work
Planning Design projects and programs
Organize Set internal structures for smooth
implementation
Control Monitor and evaluate project performance

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Necessary Skills of a Project Manager
•Leadership
•Information system
•Evaluation
•Planning
•Financial
management
•Procurement
•Communication
•Negotiation
•Contractual
•Legal
•Policy skills

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2.0 Project Life Cycle
2.1 Meaning of PLC
 Series of stages in which a project goes
through
 Series of phases in which a project
evolves
 The way in which the project is planned
and carried out in systematic manner
 It is about the life of the project

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2.2 Why PLC
 Ensures that projects are relevant to real
needs
 Ensures that projects are feasible
 Ensures that projects are sustainable

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2.3 PLC Framework
Project identification.1
Project formulation.2
Project appraisal .3
Project Implementation.4
Project evaluation.5
Monitoring
Decisions

2.2.1 Project Identification
 Identify pertinent issues that affect the
community…this is more participatory
..Techniques and Tools
 Focuses on
 What is the core issue?
 What are the primary and secondary
causes?
 What are the symptoms and effects
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2.0 Project life Cycle
2.2.2Project Formulation
 Proposing solutions to the problem ..designing
the project proposal document
 Focuses on
 What should be done to address the core
issue?...Goal ..impact
 What should be done to deal with the primary and
secondary causes?..specific objectives…outcome
 How to deal with symptoms and effects?
…activities …output/input
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2.0 Project life Cycle
2.2.3 Project Appraisal
 Focuses on assessing the viability or
worthiness of the proposed project
 This can be in terms of financial and non
financial assessment
 Is it worth to undertake this project? This
is key question appraisal question
 It is more about pre testing the project
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2.2.4 Project Implementation
 Focuses on putting the project into
practice
 This requires inputs ..labour, funds ,
capital and physical facilities
 It also needs setting structures such as
financial control, contractual systems,
risk management systems etc
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2.2.5 Project Evaluation
 Focuses on putting in place monitoring
and evaluation systems
 This requires designing M and E
framework that will help to assess
 Effectiveness of the project
 Efficiency of the project
 Any need to take corrective actions
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Logical Framework Approach (LFA)
2.3 The LFA:
Is a tool – or rather an open set of
tools – for project design and
management. It entails an
evolutionary, iterative analytical
process and a format for
presenting the results of this
process
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LFA Cont…
The LFA can contribute to:
Improve project design
Foster project performance
Facilitate project management
Applyng the LFA flexibly and creatively it can be
a “frame for logical work” instead of a “blueprint”
resulting in “logic-less frames” or “lockframes”.
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30
RPTR4202: INTRODUCTION TO
PROJECT PLANNING AND
MANAGEMENT
CRP 2018/19
UNIT II

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Project Identification
(The Analysis Phase)
1.1 Meaning of PI
 Singling out a critical need or opportunity
for addressing
 Participatory approach where needs are
assessed
 Identify the critical needs for addressing
 It starts with Situation analysis/Baseline
Survey employing tools like Stakeholders
Matrix and Gender analysis Matrix

PI: (The Analysis Phase) Cont...
1.2 Stakeholders Analysis (Situation Analysis)
 Project normally starts with a basic idea
generated from stakeholders at the local,
national or global level
 The LFA is an evolutionary, iterative process
starting with the profound analysis of this
existing, undesired situation (Critical Issues)
as the basis for later planning.
 But what are the most important characteristics
of an existing situation? What are the real
problems to be tackled by the project?
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 The answer to this question greatly
depends on perception - in a project
context on the perception of the different
stakeholders involved.
 Ignoring the perceptions, experience
and realities of the different
stakeholders can only have an adversary
effect on the success of projects or
programmes
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 During the analysis phase representatives of the
stakeholders are therefore brought together and
consulted in order to be able to define and provide
their views on the existing problems (first step of the
analysis phase), to be able to later on analyze
objectives on that basis (second step of the analysis
phase) and to finally analyze what alternative project
strategies exist (third step of the analysis phase).
 Stakeholder consultations are often organized in form
of workshops, but can and should be varied
according to the specific conditions and needs.
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 In order to maximize the social and
institutional benefits (sustainability) of
the project and minimize its negative
impacts, it is extremely important to
develop a comprehensive picture of the
interest groups, individuals and
institutions connected to the entire
development problem and project idea
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Steps in Stakeholders Analysis
 List all potential stakeholders
 Categorized them in terms of primary and secondary actors
 Identify the interest of stakeholders and rank them
 Identify their possible impact on the project
 Identify the influence and importance of actors
 Influence-Extent to which stakeholder is able to persuade or
coerce others into making decision
 Importance –priority given by your organization to satisfy
actors need and interest
 Identify the risks assumptions that may happen if their interest are
not met
 Show the type of participation
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1.3 Problem Analysis
 It is assumed that a need for an
intervention exists if there is an
undesired situation. The intervention
(project) is meant to help solving the
undesired situation.
 Within the LFA “undesired situation” is
translated and crystallized into
“problems”.
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 Analyzing problems therefore means
to analyze an existing situation.
 During problem analysis the negative
aspects of an existing situation are
analyzed.
 Key problems are identified and the
causal relationship between them.
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 Initially information on the existing
situation has to be collected and
analyzed which, depending on the
complexity of the circumstances,
might take a long time.
 On this basis the stakeholders
identified are consulted for their
views and perceptions.
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 The consultations can take place through
various forms that have to be chosen
depending on the stakeholders.
 Often the consultations are organized
as participatory workshops.
“Brainstorming” can be used as a
technique at the beginning of a workshop
to identify key problems with the
stakeholders.
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Key Steps in Problem Analysis
a. List all problems
b. Prioritize critical problem
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c. Having collected a number of key problems and identify
a priority need a so-called starter problem is selected to
begin with clustering the problems.
A hierarchy of causes and effects is being established
between the problems identified, slowly drawing up a
“problem tree”
 Problems which are directly causing the starter problem
are placed below it;
 Problems which are direct effects of the starter problem
are positioned above it;
 Problems that are neither a cause nor an effect are
positioned at the same level as the starter problem.
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1.4 Objectives Analysis
 While problem analysis presents the negative
aspects of an existing situation, analysis of
objectives describes a future situation that will
be achieved by solving the problems identified.
 During analysis of objectives potential solutions
for a given situation are identified. This involves
the reformulation of the negative aspects
(“problems”) identified into positive ones
(envisioned for the future) drawing up an
“objectives tree”.
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 In the objectives tree now the objectives are structured
in a hierarchical order and the former cause–effect
relationships between the key problems are turned into
means–end relationships between objectives (what
needs to be done to achieve what?).
 The objectives derived should reflect the future,
desired situation but should be realistically
achievable (which can be achieved by e.g. qualifying
the objectives) basing on SMART criteria.
 The rationale of the reformulation is to derive the
objectives directly from the actual existing problems
identified and not from elsewhere.
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1.5 Strategy Analysis (Analysis of Alternatives)
 The final stage of the analysis phase involves the
identification of possible solutions that could
form a project strategy and the selection of
one or more strategies to be followed by the
project.
 During strategy analysis (or “analysis of
alternatives”) a decision is being taken on which
objectives will and which objectives won’t be
pursued within the frame of the project.
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 The starting point for strategy analysis is the
objectives tree. The choice of one ore more
strategies is made on the basis of criteria
which have to be agreed upon and defined
with the stakeholders, depending on the
specific project context.
 Possible criteria could be: costs, urgency,
resources available, social acceptability,
gender aspects, time perspective of benefits,
feasibility, development policy guidelines, etc.
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 In the illustration case below– the two possible
strategies identified are a) an agriculture strategy
(focusing on the adequate use of fertilizers and
pesticides in agriculture) and b) an environment
strategy (focusing on the reduction of untreated
discharge of wastewater from households and
factories into the river).
 Both have to be pursued in order to improve the
quality of the river quality. This can be done in
different projects, or in different sub-components
tackled by the same project or programme.
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 Having selected a project strategy
the different levels of objectives
(immediate objective and
development goal) can be identified,
which will later on be transposed
into the logical framework matrix
(or short form: logframe matrix).
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MANAGEMENT
CRP 2018/19
UNIT III

Project Formulation/Design:
(The Planning phase)
1.1 What is project planning?
 Focuses on coming up with solutions for
the identified problem or opportunity
Why project planning?
 Efficiently utilize and allocate resource
 Effectively address the problem
 As an evaluation reflection
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The Planning Phase cont….
 The main output of the LFA is the
logframe matrix (short form for logical
framework matrix) – it could also be
called the “product” of the LFA. The
logframe matrix is a format for
presenting the results of the LFA as a
process, and is developed on the basis
of the LFA tools applied earlier during
the analysis phase
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Out of the strategy analysis
(based on problem and
stakeholder analysis and the
analysis of objectives) the different
levels of objectives are being
transposed into the first column of
the matrix (project strategy)
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 During the planning phase of the LFA it is
further elaborated which external factors
are crucial for the projects success
(assumptions), where to find the
information required to assess its’ success
(indicators and sources of verification)
which means are required to achieve the
project’s objectives and what the project
will cost. On this basis activity and
resource schedules can be established.
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Logical Framework Matrix (LFM)
1.2.1 The Logical Framework Matrix (LFM)
 Logframe matrix is a format for presenting the
results of the LFA process
 The matrix serves as a summary of the key
information on the project. It provides an easy
overview that allows a quick assessment of the
consistency and coherence of the project logic
NOTE: A logframe matrix should reflect a project
strategy derived from the careful analysis of an
existing situation – not vice versa.
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LFM Cont………………
 The logframe matrix consists in its most basic format used
for illustration purposes here of “16 boxes”: four columns
and four rows forming a matrix.
 Within the vertical logic of the matrix (first column =
project strategy) it can be identified what the project
intends to achieve and how (clarifying the causal
relationships between the different levels of objectives),
specifying important underlying assumptions and
risks (fourth column of the matrix).
 Within the horizontal logic of the matrix indicators to
measure progress and impact are specified and the
sources or means by which the indicators will be verified.
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(Project Strategy)

LFM Cont………………………
 The project strategy reflected in the first column
of the logframe matrix is derived from strategy
analysis: the objectives chosen for inclusion in
the project are transposed into the matrix. When
transposing the objectives it is important to
distinguish between different levels as defined
above.
 An agreement has to be reached among the
stakeholders on what the immediate
objective(s) of the project should be.
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 Once this level of objective has been defined, the
objectives that fall under the strategy chosen during
strategy analysis can be transposed into the first column
of the logframe matrix.
 Attention has to be paid to distinguish between the
different levels of objectives.
 The project strategy incorporated in the first column of
the matrix has to be reviewed to see whether the means
to end relationships established between the different
levels of objectives are consistent, or whether additional
outputs or activities are required in order to achieve the
objective(s) on the next level
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NB: The project has only one immediate objective,
or if more, the objectives are compatible, complementary
and at the same level. A recommendation generally made in
cases of multiple immediate objectives is to try to
reformulate them into one immediate objective.
 Some organisations strongly promote the use of only
one immediate objective.
 In the Project Cycle Management Training Handbook of
the European Commission it is stated that “more than one
immediate objective “would imply an overly complex
project and possible management problems.” Multiple
immediate objectives “may also indicate unclear or
conflicting objectives.
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1.2.3 Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVI)
 Indicators are parameters of change or
results
 Objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs)
describe a project’s objectives in
measurable “empirically observable”
terms and provide the basis for
performance measurement and project
monitoring and evaluation
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 They are parameters of change or
of results, indicating as to what
extent the project objectives have
been achieved. Indicators help to
create transparency conveying to
others what the project intends to
achieve and are placed into the
second column of the logframe matrix.
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 Indicators clarify the characteristics of the
different levels of objectives of a project. When
formulating indicators it should be paid attention
that the indicators are:
 Objectively verifiable, that means that different people should come to the
same results when using the indicators in a monitoring or evaluation
process;
 Independent from each other, each one relating to a specific objective;
 Plausible in that the effects observed are direct results of project
interventions;
 Specific with regard to quality, quantity, target group, time/ period and place
(the 5 dimensions of an indicator);
 Measurable (directly or indirectly), so that they can be assessed;
 Based on accessible information (also in terms of time and money)
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1.2.4 Means/Sources of Verification
 SOVs describe where and in what
form to find indicators
 Sources of verification (SOVs)
describe where and in what form to
find the necessary information on the
achievement of objectives
(indicators).
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 Questions to be clarified when looking for
sources of verification for the indicators
are:
 Do appropriate external sources already exist (e.g.
reports, statistics)?
 Are these sources specific enough?
 Are the sources reliable and accessible?
 Is the cost for obtaining the information reasonable?
 Should other sources be created?
 Sources of verification are placed into the third
column of the logframe matrix.
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1.2.5 Assumptions
Assumptions are external factors crucial for
the project’s success
 The moment a choice is made on which
objectives to pursue with a project at the same
time a number of aspects are being left outside
the scope of the project. Those that have to be
attained in order to reach a project’s objectives
become external factors that influence or even
determine the success of the project, but lie
outside the control of the project.
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 Further external factors that have to be met in
order to achieve project objectives can be
identified by logical reasoning: reviewing the
logframe matrix systematically starting with the
lowest level of objectives, asking what further
external factors have to be fulfilled in order to
achieve the next higher level of objectives.
 Note: A precondition is different from an
assumption in that it is a condition that must be
fulfilled or met before project activities can start.
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 The aim of specifying assumptions (and
pre-conditions) is to identify and assess
potential risks to and dependencies of
the project right from the initial stages
of project design, to support the
monitoring of risks during the
implementation of the project and to
provide a basis for necessary
adjustments.
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 Assumptions are displayed in the fourth
column of the logframe matrix and are
stated in positive terms (as assumptions
that have been accomplished).
 Below, their inter-linkage with the different
levels of objectives can be seen (if
activities are carried out and assumptions
hold true, then the outputs will be
delivered, etc.).
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1.2.6. Means and Cost
 Means and Cost give an overview of inputs needed
 Means are the human, material and service resources
(inputs) needed to carry out planned activities and
management support activities.
 Cost are the financial resources needed to carry out
these activities.
 In order to be able to estimate human, material and
financial resources needed it is necessary to specify the
planned activities and the management support activities
sufficiently.
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 It is also important to bear in mind that the LFA
exercise will require specific allocation of funds
to finance activities such as consultations, ad-
hoc meetings/workshops, or hiring of consultants
if necessary, to carry out stakeholder analysis,
preparation of the Planning Matrix, etc
 For the project implementation stage, the
collection and analysis of data identified in the
indicators might entail also costs that should be
reflected in the M&E budget line within the total
budget for the project.
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 The summary of means (human and
material resources) is integrated into the
second column, 4th row of the logframe
matrix.
 The summary of estimated cost (financial
resources) is placed into the 3rd column,
4th row, adding the last aspects to the
project summary (logframe matrix).
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 After having integrated means and cost into the
logframe matrix it should be reviewed, whether the
means and cost indicated are directly related to the
activity concerned and whether all key resources
needed (means and cost) have been listed and are
sufficiently specified.
 Clear and logical relationships between outputs, the
respective activities to be undertaken, and the inputs
necessary form a good basis for budgeting and
detailed work planning.
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Activity and Resource Schedules
2.3. Activity and Resource Schedules
 Activity and Resource Schedules
provide operational details
 A logframe matrix provides a summary of the key
information on a project. “Key information” means,
that in general only the most important aspects
are being included, without elaborating the
operational details needed for further planning
and implementation.
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 Activity and resource schedules are a
means to provide the operational detail
needed. Following the LFA sequence they
are established on the basis of the
logframe matrix.
 Having drawn up an activity schedule that
specifies a project’s activities in operational
detail a resource schedule can be drawn
up to elaborate on the cost of the means
required.
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2.3.1. Activity Schedules
 In an activity schedule a project’s activities
are broken down into operational detail.
 An activity schedule:
 Lays open dependencies between activities;
 Clarifies the sequence, duration and precedence of activities;
 Identifies key milestones to be achieved;
 Serves as a basis for project monitoring;
 Assigns management responsibility and implementing
responsibilities.
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 Starting from the logframe matrix
established the activities specified in the
first column/ last row are transferred into
the first column of the activity schedule
format, then:
i) Break the activities down into sub-activities and manageable
tasks.
ii) Clarify sequence and dependency of the activities
iii) Specify start, duration and completion of activities.
iv) Define milestones.
v) Assign tasks and responsibilities.
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i) Break the activities down into sub-
activities and manageable tasks.
 The activities shouldn’t be specified in too much
detail, but they should be detailed enough to
provide the basis to estimate time and
resources needed to carry out the activities,
and they should be detailed enough that the
person finally assigned to carry out the
activities has sufficient instructions on what has
to be done.
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ii) Clarify sequence and dependency of
the activities.
 After having specified the activities in
operational detail, they must be related
to each other to see in which order they
have to be undertaken (sequence) and
which activity depends on the start up or
completion of another activity
(dependencies).
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iii) Specify start, duration and completion
of activities.
 Specifying the timing of project activities means to make estimates
on the duration of tasks, building those estimates into the
activity schedule - indicating likely start and completion dates.
 To make sure that the estimates are realistic people having the
necessary technical knowledge or experience should be consulted.
 Often the time needed to carry out activities is underestimated due
to a number of reasons which can be the omission of crucial
activities of tasks, failure to allow sufficiently for interdependence of
activities, a failure to allow for resource competition (i.e. scheduling
the same person or piece of equipment to do two or more things at
once) and a desire to impress with the promise of rapid results.
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iv) Define milestones.
 Milestones define targets to be achieved by
the activities and provide the basis for
monitoring.
 A simple milestone is the completion of a task
to a planned date. In an activity schedule the
activities, sub-activities and tasks are listed in
a consecutive way, therefore accomplishing
a certain task in time can be seen as a
milestone on the way to achieving outputs.
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v) Assign tasks and responsibilities.
 Allocating tasks also means allocating
responsibilities for achieving milestones.
 It is a means of defining the accountability of
the members of a project team.
 Before allocating tasks the expertise required to
carry out the respective tasks has to be
specified. By doing so it can be checked whether
all necessary human resources are available
and the schedule is feasible.
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 Activity schedules lay the ground for
further planning (resource schedules)
and later on for project management.
 They provide an initial benchmark
including estimates that might have to
be revised in the light of changing
circumstances or actual implementation
performance.
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 A possible format for presenting an
activity schedule is a Gantt Chart,
which – apart from milestones and
responsibilities – allows to get a
rapid overview of the sequence,
duration and interrelation of
activities to be undertaken.
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2.3.2. Resource Schedules
 Resource schedules provide the basis
for the planned mobilization of
(external and local) resources,
facilitate results-based budgeting and
the monitoring of cost-effectiveness.
 Resource schedules also identify cost
implications, such as the requirement
for counterpart funding.
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 To establish a resource schedule the list of activities,
sub-activities and tasks elaborated in the activity
schedule is being copied into a resource schedule form.
 Then in a first step the means (human and material
resources) necessary to carry out the activities are
specified.
 In a second step the cost of the means are specified
following defined categories, such as:
 Units
 Quantities per defined period (e.g. quarters of a year)
 Unit cost
 Later obtain a Sub totals, Total Budget, Contingency Budget
and Grand Total Budget.
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 On this basis cost per period and total project
cost can be easily calculated.
 In addition a column can be included to
specify the funding source to indicate the
contributions of the different parties involved.
 Specifying first the means and then the costs of
all sub-activities and tasks indicated in the activity
schedule will allow to use simple formulae and
calculate the total cost of a project.
 Attention should be paid whether the cost identified is
covered through the financial resources available.
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 As simple as the mathematical part of
calculating the costs at the end might be,
estimating the costs for the respective means
has to be based on careful budgeting, making
use of professional know-how and experience.
 How realistically a project is budgeted will not
only greatly influence the decision on whether
or not to finance it, it will later on have a
considerable effect on the implementation of
the project.
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MANAGEMENT
CRP 2018/19
UNIT IV

Project Appraisal / Pilot Study
5.1 What is PA?
 Asses the feasibility of the proposed
project for funding or putting into action
 Asses the worthiness of the project idea
before embarking into comprehensive
implementation
 Be done by a team that is not part of the
project design to eliminate biases
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5.1 What is PA?
 This is can be done in terms of a pilot
study or financial or economic appraisal
 Pilot study- assume as if you want to
implement the project in let say one
year….common in social related projects
 Financial appraisal – you analyze the cost
and benefit of the project using financial
techniques …common in business projects
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5.2 Types of PA ?
 Social appraisal –social norms, culture ,
participation, impact of project on the
society
 Technological appraisal-cost of
technology, accessibility, adoptability
 Political appraisal-does the project
match with the national priorities? Public
mood, politicians willingness
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5.2 Types of PA ?
 Gender appraisal-effect of a project on
both males and females, how do both
sex get included in the project ?
 Environmental appraisal-how does the
project concious on env issues,does the
project safeguard the env,how does the
project designed to compensate the
degradation?
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5.2 Types of PA ?
 Sustainability appraisal –ability to
continue providing the service or goods
without donor support, participation of
stakeholders, structures at community
levels,
 Institutional appraisal –ability of the institution
to implement the project –staff, experience,
strategies, policies, org structure
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5.2 Types of PA ?
 Commercial appraisal–applicable to business
and income generating projects,
 Economic appraisal –effect on the project on
individual , household and national income –
employment creation,
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5.2 Types of PA ?
 Financial appraisal–
 Applicable to investment related projects , where
outflows(invested funds ) and inflows ( expected
benefits);
 It considers the time value of money-a dollar of
today is not as worth as a dollar of tommorrow
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5.2 Types of PA ?
Details of financial Appraisals
I. Investment Decisions
Features
 Exchange of current funds for future
returns
 Assets are invested in long terms
assets
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I. Investment Decisions
Features
 Future benefits occur over series of
years
 Expenditure and benefits are in cash
basis
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II. Types of investments
 Independent investments (Stand
alone Projects)
 Mutually exclusive investments
(Making choice among alternatives)
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III. Steps and Techniques for evaluating
investments
Steps
 Estimation of cash flow
 Estimate the required rate of return
 Application of decision rule for making
the choice
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investments Techniques
Category A
Discounted Cash flows
 Net Present Value-NPV
 Internal Rate of Return(IRR)
 Profitability Index(PI)
 Discounted Pay Back Period
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investments
Techniques:
Category B
Non Discounted Cash flows
 Pay Back Period
 Accounting Rate of Return
 Benefit to cost ratio
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Discounted Cash Flow Techniques
1. Net Present Value-NPV
What is NPV
 Different between sum of present
value and initial outlay
 Future Cash flows are counted on time
basis and interest rate
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Steps of computing NPV
 Forecast the Cash flows based on
assumptions
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Period/
Yr
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5
CF/TZS (300) 56 78 89 90 78

 Identify the appropriate discount rate
 5%, 10% etc
 Compute the present values using the
opportunity cost of capital
PV=CF/(1+r)^n; where r=discount rate, n
years
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 Find the NPV by subtracting the sum of
PV from initial outlay
NPV= sum of PV-Io
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Decision Rules
a) Stand alone projects
Accept: NPV>0
Reject : NPV<0
No Value added: NPV=0
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Decision Rules
a) Mutually Exclusive projects
Accept: NPVA>NPVB
Reject : Otherwise
No Value added: NPVA=NPVB
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Illustration
Consider the company ABC that intends to
invest in producing tractors. The cash
flow is as follows
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Years 0 1 2 3 4 5
CF/TZ
S
(3000) 500 1000 2000 5000 3000

Illustration
Required
a) Compute the NPV at 10%
b) Is it feasible to undertake this project ?
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Year CF DF PV
0 -3000 1 -3000
1 500 0.909 454.5
2 1000 0.826 826
3 2000 0.751 1502
4 5000 0.683 3415
5 3000 0.621 1863
NPV 5060.5

Responses
a) NPV=TZS 5060.5
b)Decision : Project accepted since
NPV>0
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Illustration 2:
Suppose the ABC company has two
options of projects , producing tractor or
excavator. The cash flows for the
production are as follows
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Illustration 2:
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Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CFt (10,0
00)
4000 5000 7000 3000 2000 1000 3000 450
CFe (5,00
0)
4000 6000 3000 2000 1000 3000 3000 500

Illustration 2:
Required
a) Compute the NPVs for the two options
at 5% hurdle rate
b) Which project should be adopted and
why?
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IRDP Dodoma 127
Year CF tractor CF Excavator DF/5% PV tractor PV excavator
0
-10,000
-5000 1 -10000 -5000
1
4,000
4000 0.952 3808 3808
2 5000 6000 0.907 4535 5442
3 7000 3000 0.864 6048 2592
4 3000 2000 0.823 2469 1646
5 2000 1000 0.784 1568 784
6 1000 3000 0.746 746 2238
7 3000 3000 0.711 2133 2133
NPVs 11307 13643

Merits
 Time value of money
 Measure of profitability
 Value additivity principle
 Maximizations shareholders wealth
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Demerits
 Cash flow estimations is cumbersome
 Difficult to estimate the discount rate
 Difficult to use for projects which have
different life span
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1. Internal Rate of Return
What is IRR?
 Discount rate that assumes that when
NPV is zero there is the break even
point
 Rate of return when NPV is 0
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What is IRR?
 It is the return from invested funds
 It is derived from NPV equation
 Where IRR=inflows =outflow
 Obtained by trial and error
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Derivation of IRR?
 Recall NPV model
 NPV= sum of PV-Io
 0=sum of PV-Io
 Sum of PV=Io
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2.Internal Rate of Return
Derivation of IRR?
 Thus let two rates that is low rates and
high rate
 Thus IRR= LR +NPVLR/NPVLR-
NPVHR(HR-LR)
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Derivation of IRR?
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NPV
r
NPV=0
I
R
R

Decision Rules
a) Stand alone projects
Accept: If IRR>r
Reject :If IRR<r
b) Mutually exclusive Project
Accept Project A since IRR greater than of B
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Merits
 Profitability measures
 Acceptance Rule as for NPV
 Shareholder Value maximizations
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Demerits
 Multiple rates due to the power of the
equation
 Fail to give decisions for multiple rates
 Value addivitity principle is not applicable
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Internal Rate of Return
Illustrations
Project alpha has the following cash flows
If the cost of capital is 12%. What is its IRR?
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Co C1 C2 C3
(5,000) 1,000 2,000 3,000

 Compute NPV at 12%=-377
 Let 11 be LR and 13 be HR
 Then compute the NPV for each rate
 Then find IRR(8.2%) using provided proxy formula
 Through guessing you can find that IRR gives NPV
zero
 You can also use excel spread sheet to find IRR(
IRR is 8.2%)
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3. Profitability Index(PI)
What is PI?
 Ratio of the sum of present values of inflows to the
initial outlay
 It is the benefit cost ratio where cash flows are
discounted
Derivations
 PI= Sum of PV/Initial outlay
 =[C1/(1+r)^1 +C2/(1+r)^2 +…Cn/(1+r)^n]/Io
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3. Profitability Index(PI)
Decision Rules
 Single project : accept if PI>1
otherwise reject
 Mutually Exclusive projects :
accept with large PI but greater
than 1
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3.Profitability index
Merits
 Measure of profitability
 Maximizations shareholders wealth
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3.Profitability Index
 Cash flow estimations is cumbersome
 Difficult to estimate the discount rate
 Difficult to use for projects which have
different life span
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Example: Compute the PI for a project with
9% cost of capital and state if it is worth
to undertake such project?
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Co C1 C2 C3
(4,500) 1,500 2,000 1,600

Solution
Thus PI=4,295/4,500=0.95
Since the PI is less than 1 , the project is not
acceptable
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Year(i) Ci PVF9,i PV
1 1,500 0.917 1,376
2 2000 0.841 1,683
3 1600 0.772 1236
TZS 4,295

4. Discounted Pay Back Period
A. What is Discounted Pay Back Period
 Provides time in which the initial cost could
be recovered
 It is about how sooner will the initial cost be
recovered
 Cash flows are discounted …..time value of
money has been taken into consideration
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Discounted Pay Back Period
B. Decision rules
 Stand alone project
Accept : PBP <Policy max, otherwise reject
 Mutually exclusive projects
Accept : a project with shorter PBP
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C. Merits and Demerits
 Merits
 Gives rough indication of project liquidity
 Easy to understand and apply
 Measures project risks
 TVM is considered
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C. Merits and Demerits
 Demerits
 Ignores the cash flows after
the PBP
 Cut off standard is subjective
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D. Derivations
 PBP(d)= Ed +D/C
Where
 Ed- early time before meeting the PBP
 D-uncovered costs at start of the year
 C=Cash flow during the year recover the initial
costs
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D. Derivations
Example : Consider the following project: Use the hurdle
rate of 10% to
a)Compute PBP(d)
b) Make decision on whether it is worth to accept the
project if policy max is 2 years
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C0 C1 C2 C3 C4
-4000 2000 1000 2500 1000

Example
a) PBP=2+(4000-3553)/751*12=2 years and 7
months or 2.6Years
b) Decision- Reject it
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Non Discounted Techniques
A. Simple PBP
 It gives the recovery time of initial costs
without considering TVM
 The cash flows are not all taken into account
 It is like the PBP(d) except on the TVM
 Use the previous example to compute the
PBP when there is no use of TVM
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 PBP=2+(4000-3000)/2500*12=2Years
and 3 Months or 2.4 Years
Alternatively:
PBP=2 yrs+4000-3000=1000
If 2500=1 Year
1000= ? Years
Then you get 0.4
Therefore PBP is 2+0.4*12 Months=2 Years and 3
months or 2.4 Years. Decision-Reject
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B. Accounting Rate of Return(ARR)
What is ARR
 Rate of return from investment when
financial and accounting info are used
 It is the rate on investment( ROI)
 It employs data from accounts such earning ,
income etc
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Decision Rules
 Stand alone project
 Accept : ARR>Policy min , otherwise reject
 Mutually exclusive project
 Accept with larger ARR
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Dervation
 ARR= Average Project profit/ average investment
=average income/average investment x 100
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Merits
 Simple
 Uses accounting data
 Provides accounting profits
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Demerits
 Cash flows ignored
 TVM ignored
 Arbitrary cut off standard
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ARR is also called Return on Capital
Employed (ROCE). It is the ratio of
accounting profit generated by an
investiment project to the required capital
outlay, expressed as a percentage
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Normally profit is calculated after depreciation but
before any allowance for taxation and including
capital employed that would be required if the
project were accepted. ARR is expressed as a ratio
of the average annual profit to the initial capital
outlay or as the ratio of the average annual profit
generated over the life span of the project
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Example:
WV NGO is wishing to appraise a fishing investiment
proposal of Mpunguzi Village. The project requests an
initial capital expenditure of tsh. 900, 000/= together
with a working capital of 270,000/=. The project is to
be implemented for 4 years at the end of which the
Working Capital is expected to be fully covered and
the project will have a scrap value of Tshs. 180,000/=;
the Net pre-tax cash flows are expressed in the table
and the NGO officer uses the strait-line method of
calculating depreciation. If the project is to be
accepted if RECO should be more than 12.5%,
determine if it is worthwhile to undertake it.
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Cash flows for a finishing project at Mpunguzi Village
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Year Net cash flow (Tshs)
1 360,000/=
2 540,000/=
3 315,000/=
4 135,000/=

Solution:
AD=(OC-SV)/EL
Where,
AD=Annual depreciation = ?
OC=Original Cost = Tshs. 900,000/=
SV=Salvage Value = Tshs. 180,000/=
EL=Expected life of the project=4 Years
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Therefore,
AD= (900,000-180,000)/4 = Tshs. 180,000/=
Therefore depreciation will be as per table bellow
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Year Annual profit-Depreciation Profit after Depreciation
1 360,000-180,000 180,000
2 540,000-180,000 360,000
3 315,000-180,000 135,000
4 135,000-180,000 -45,000
Total - 630,000

Therefore, Average annual profit is Tshs
630,000/= divided by 4 years = Tshs.
157,500/=, Since ROCE method includes
working capital,
ROCE = Tshs 157,500/= /(Tshs.
900,000+Tshs 270,000) *100 = 13.5%
Decision: Since ROCE > policy
benchmark of 12.5%, hence the project is
viable
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Benefit to Cost Ratio
BCR is similar to PI except it has no
consideration on Time value of Money,
hence no discounting is made.
BCR = Sum of Net Values (Inflows)/Io
Decision Rules
 Single project : accept if BCR>1 otherwise reject
 Mutually Exclusive projects : accept with large BCR
but greater than 1
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Example: From the following cash flow,
calculate BCR then identify whether the
project is worthy undertaking.
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Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3
(4000) 1000 2000 2500

Solution
BCR = Sum of Net Flows/Io
= 5500/4000
= 1.38
Decision: Since BCR>1, the project is
worthy undertaking
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170
170
170
MANAGEMENT
CRP 2018/19
UNIT V

MONITORING & EVALUATION
Introduction
 Once a project has been planned and
financial support been secured and
implemented the most important part begins –
M&E
 Project Management has the important and
difficult task of establishing sufficient control
over the project to ensure that it stays on track
towards the achievements of its objectives.
 This is done by Monitoring
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PROJECT MONITORING
 Monitoring is a continuous and systematic
collection and analysis of information to
measure the progress of a project towards
expected results.
 Through monitoring project managers (and
others involved) are provided with regular feed-
back on actual project progress as compared to
planned progress.
 Generally the “feed-back” is provided through
reports that contain the essential information
timely and systematically.
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PROJECT MONITORING
 Monitoring is a systematic and continuous collection
and analysis of data for the purpose of comparing how
well a project is being implemented against expected
results.
 The data and performance Indicators continuously
generated through monitoring are used as early warning
signs to alert management to constraints and
opportunities requiring attention and action with the aim
of improving chances of success in project
Implementation.
 Monitoring focuses on resources, activities and results in
the LFM
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PROJECT MONITORING
 Project Monitoring is the part of day-to-day Management.
 Its purpose is to provide information by which
Management can identify and solve implementation
problems and assess progress in relation to what was
originally planned.
 Monitoring is the too; for identifying Strengths and
Weaknesses during implementation of the project and
for providing stakeholders with sufficient information to
make the right and Timely decisions.
 Monitoring is usually done to ascertain whether the
project activities are being implemented as planned and
if not, why?
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PROJECT MONITORING
Why M&E Normally go together?
 This is because while Monitoring as an internal process assesses
progress on a regular basis for the sake of management and decision
making, Evaluation reflects on what has happened and what is
happening in order to improve the future
 Evaluation uses data and records built during the process of
Monitoring and other information such as Focus Group Discussion
and Interview to review performance and identify ways to make
improvements
 Therefore M&E are complementary project Management functions
which ensures that the project is running on the right track.
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PROJECT MONITORING
Designing a Monitoring System
 There are five steps in the design and
specification of a project-level Monitoring
System:-
 Analyze project Objectives to clarify project design
 Review Implementation Procedures
 Review Indicators
 Design Report Format
 Prepare an Implementation plan for the Monitoring
System
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PROJECT MONITORING
Project Performance Areas that are Monitored
a) Time/Schedule Performance
b) Costs/Budget (Cost performance/financial)
Monitoring
c) Work Quantity (Input-output) performance
d) Work Quality (Technical Performance)
e) Activity Monitoring
f) Process Monitoring
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PROJECT MONITORING
Monitoring Tools
There are a variety of Monitoring
Tools that can be applied to projects.
Project Management must select the
right monitoring tools while ensuring
an appropriate balance btn reporting,
validation and participation
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PROJECT MONITORING
 Reporting involves obtaining and
analyzing documentation from the
project that provides information on
progress.
 Validation: checking or verifying the
accuracy of reported progress
 Participation: Obtaining feedback from
beneficiaries on progress and proposed
actions
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PROJECT MONITORING
 Examples of Monitoring in the above three
categories are summarized here under.
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Reporting/Analysis Validation Participation
• Annual project
Report
• Quarterly/Progress
report
• Work Plans
• Project Delivery
reports
• Substantive Project
Documentation
• Field Visit
• Spot check visit
• External
assessment/Monitor
ing
• Client Surveys
• Evaluations
• Outcome Groups
• Steering
committees
• Stakeholders
meetings
• Focus group
Discussions
• Annual Reviews
• Mid year and
Quarterly Reviews

PROJECT EVALUATION
Evaluations are periodic
assessments of project
performance and impact to review
a project’s actual achievements
against the achievements planned
and to document the lessons
learned for future improvement
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PROJECT EVALUATION
 PE is a periodic assessment of the relevance,
efficiency, effectiveness, impact, economic and
financial viability and sustainability of a project in the
context of its stated objectives.
 PE is not only concerned with outcomes but also the
implementation process i.e effectiveness and
efficiency of implementation activities. Evaluation
focuses on results-to-purpose and purpose-to-overall
objectives.
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Evaluation Criteria
 Relevancy (appropriateness of Objectives to problems and
policy compliance)
 Efficiency (costs effectiveness, speed and mgt of inputs and
activities to achieve outputs)
 Effectiveness (achievement purpose)
 Impact (Effects/contribution on wider environment)
 Sustainability (Likelihood of continuation)
 Economic and financial viability (Social and economic
benefits)
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Efficiency: Measures
 The quality of day-to-day management eg. Budget
 Costs and value-for-money
 Technical assistance-results produced
 Quality of monitoring
Effectiveness: Measures
 Achievements of planned benefits
 MGT of planned results and control
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Impact: Measures
 Achievement on planned goal
 How far enhanced social-economic devt
 How economic effects were spread btn
economic growth
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Sustainability: Measures
 Ownership of objectives and achievements
 Policy support and responsibility of beneficiary institutions
 Institutional capacity
 Adequacy of budget for project purpose
 Social-cultural factors i.e comply cultural traits
 Financial sustainability (after project phase-out)
 Technology/Technical issues i.e user friendly technology for post
phase-out project survival
 Cross-cutting issues i.e gender equity, environmental impacts and
good governance
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Types of Evaluation depending on basis of
categorization
a) Coverage
1. Partial Evaluation (covers some aspects)
2. Comprehensive Evaluation (covers all
aspects usually done mid-way through
the project implementation to determine
which course project should take or after
project completion to determine impact
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PROJECT EVALUATION
b) Timing
1. Ex-ante Evaluation (carried before activities are undertaken to
gauge viability and need assessment to justify activities)
2. Ex-post Evaluation (carried out when activities have been
completed)
3. On-going Evaluation (Formative/mid-term review). Takes place at
intervals during implementation to ascertain the continuing validity
of the assumptions on track to realize its purpose
4. Terminal Evaluation (Done at the end of the project life to
determine its relevance)
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PROJECT EVALUATION
c) Who does the evaluation (agents)
1. Built in self Evaluation: Conducted by
project implementers
2. Participatory Evaluation: Staffs and
external evaluators consult with
beneficiaries
3. External Evaluation: Carried out by
individuals out of the project implementing
team
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PROJECT EVALUATION
d) Input-output relationship
1. Performance appraisal: focuses on three elements of the project
(Technical, time and costs)
2. Audits: Focuses on financial performance
3. Results evaluation: Taken at or towards project end to determine
whether the project outputs have been used to achieve the planned
objectives
4. Costs/Benefits assessment: To ascertain whether benefits
realized actually justify the resources expended to achieve them
5. Impact studies: (whether the project made the desired impact)
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Need for data in Project Evaluation
 Data is as crucial to project evaluation as it is to
monitoring.
 An important requirement for collecting good quality
and adequate data is to choose appropriate methods
and instruments i.e interviews, observations, Focus
Group Discussions, semi-structured interviews and
questionnaires and records review.
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Definition of Data
1. Quantitative data (Numerical)-discrete or
continuous
2. Qualitative data (Non numerical)-social
variables like education level etc
3. Baseline data. Refers to a collection of
data/facts about the characteristics of a
community a project/program begins.
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PROJECT EVALUATION
 Baseline data are crucial in M&E as it offers the
basis for measurements (starting point for
results monitoring) without it one cannot
determine situational performance or trend in
performance of a project.
 Both M&E normally compare project
performance data with the original/baseline
situational data to establish what has changed
during project implementation. Baseline data
can be Quantitative, qualitative or both.
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Evaluation Report
1. Executive summary
2. Background
3. Methodology
4. Presentation of results
5. Conclusion and Recommendation
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PROJECT EVALUATION
M&E PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Indicators: Are signs or variables that show the extent of
change that resulted from the project in terms of quantity,
quality and timeliness against what was planned.
Categories of Indicators:
a) Direct Indicators: Measures the variable directly eg
number of classrooms constructed
b) Proxy Indicators: Monitor issues that are difficult to
measure directly i.e estimates for impact.
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Formulation of Performance Indicators
 Define the aspects to be measured e.g
classrooms
 Determine the unit/criteria of measure
eg. Number or size or frequency etc
 State the time element eg. Per week,
month etc
 Determine the spatial/location aspects
eg. Per village, ward ettc
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Types of Indicators
a. Input Indicators: Describe means (resources) by which
project is implemented
b. Output Indicators: Measure achievements on planned
targets
c. Process Indicators: Measure volume, efficiency and quality
of work. Whether activities planned have been carried well.
d. Impact Indicators: Measure impact upon targeted
beneficiaries (+ve or –ve) social and economic changes eg.
On income levels, employment creation etc.
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Designing an Effective Project M&E system
The need for a systematic approach to designing a monitoring and
evaluation system of a project is supported by the following objectives:
 To adequately distribute roles and responsibilities amongst the
different levels and categories of stakeholders
 To effectively utilize M&E resources
 To ensure maximum consistency of M&E system with project
objectives, activities and targets.
 To select the most significant indicators for each level of players
 To maximize opportunities for feedback into the rest of the project
cycle
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PROJECT EVALUATION
The following steps describe the path for
drawing up an effective monitoring plan:
 Explain project goals, objectives and activities
 Identify which components/issues are to be monitored
 Identify information to be collected on each component/issue
 Decide on how the information is to be collected, analyzed
and stored.
 Decide on how the processed information is to provide
feedback into the decision making process.
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PROJECT EVALUATION
Steps in Making an Project M&E plan
1. Selection of Indicators
2. Select data to be collected
3. Specify sources of verification
4. Select methods of data collection
5. Distribute Responsibilities
6. Design the reporting and feedback system
7. Design the database
8. Determine means and Costs
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PROJECT EVALUATION
M&E Plan Matrix (Sample intro)
IRDP Dodoma 201
S/N Activity Baseline Target Indica
tors
Monit
oring
tools
Time Responsib
le person
1.1 Community
sensitizatio
n on
conservati
on
agriculture
Increased
production
from 6-12
bags per
hectare
to13-18
bags per
hectare by
2015
10 Sub-
village
community
members
sensitized
by 2015
Numbe
r of sub
village
sensitiz
ed
Checkli
st,ques
tionnar
e.
July
2012-
Aug
2012
Ward
Agriculture
Extension
Officer
Ward
Community
Developmen
t Officer

202
202
202
MANAGEMENT
CRP 2018/19
UNIT VI

A Resource Mobilization
Strategy for Project
Financing

Rptr4202 ppm unit 1 org pdf

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