Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.

The Future and Energy

2 290 vues

Publié le

Glen Hiemstra keynote to the annual DHL energy customer conference in Houston, Texas. October 2016.

Publié dans : Business
  • Soyez le premier à commenter

The Future and Energy

  1. 1. glen hiemstra
  2. 2. …rather than a search for a truly new future most planning is a search for a more efficient past... Glen Hiemstra DISRUPTION
  3. 3. $92 $28 $46? energy future These are “epic times in the oil market,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData in 2015
  4. 4. “As we have written for some time, we expect all car companies would eventually see nearly 100 percent of their revenues shift from the sale of human-driven/ individually-owned cars to robot-driven/shared cars.” - Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley, Aug. 17, 2015 - www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tesla-uber- rival_55d1e72fe4b0ab468d9db3fd
  5. 5. science fiction arriving
  6. 6. New York 1900 New York 1920
  7. 7. what is your image of the future? probable? possible? preferred?
  8. 8. not a mystery
  9. 9. social driving forces... ❏ U.S. middle class squeeze - global growth ❏ millennials come of age, 75% of workforce in 2025 ❏ intelligence in everything ❏ power of connectivity ❏ regulation and cheaper renewable energy
  10. 10. key driving technologies... ❏ energy efficiency ❏ demand side management ❏ smart grids and cities ❏ convergence of IT and distribution ❏ falling solar prices
  11. 11. • STEEP • society & demographics • technology & science • economy & markets • environment & energy • politics, regulation & government
  12. 12. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Population(billions) Year Population Growth Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions 2010 2030 2050
  13. 13. people of the screen... will not accept old limitations
  14. 14. world population growth, by age, to 2050 Percent Under 15 15-64 Over 65 0 50 100 150 200 Photo http://blogs.ft.com/photo-diary/2013/10/older-persons-day/
  15. 15. loving cities
  16. 16. nano | bio | info | cogno | robo | space 3D | connectivity | convergence
  17. 17. internet of everything In the next 20 years PC’s will be replaced by millions of tiny intelligent systems embedded in our clothes, jewelry, cars, furniture, and walls. They will recognize voice commands and carry out simple wishes. They will cost less than a penny, less than scrap paper, so companies which do not put chips [intelligence] in all their products will be at a severe disadvantage.
 Michio Kaku, 1998
  18. 18. what is internet of everything? platform for devices to communicate with the world around them and to integrate human, natural and built worlds
  19. 19. when things are smart
  20. 20. http://www.districtoffuture.eu/uploads/imagenes/imagenes_meetinpoint_smart-city_2b637ab6.jpg smart city
  21. 21. when things are smart http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3659201/Rolls-Royce-reveals-remote-controlled-roboship-augmented-reality-central-control-deck-hundreds-miles-away-sea-2020.html
  22. 22. when things are smart
  23. 23. phonosapiens 33 per 100 2005 97 per 100 2015
  24. 24. more connection = more innovation more inventions more opportunity
  25. 25. Ideas Multiply Resource Access
  26. 26. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1972 2002 2011 2030 (projected) Barrels of Oil Per Person Per Year Barrels of Oil Per Person Per Year Colfert
  27. 27. disintermediation, disruption displacement
  28. 28. $62 Billion $20 BillionUBER what can be shared will be shared
  29. 29. environmental imperative
  30. 30. how will we power a smart future?
  31. 31. Cost of Solar Power$77.00 $0.36 200 x Price Decline Grid parity
  32. 32. “Renewables are now…..deflationary to energy prices.” - UBS
  33. 33. LOWER COST HIGHER DENSITY BATTERY PRICE (10x decline) ENERGY STORED PER GRAM (3x)
  34. 34. Solar City Giga Factory, Buffalo NY 2017
  35. 35. cost trends plus technology plus environment issues plus optimizing resources suggest continued energy turbulence, transitions… requiring great resilience and continuous examination of your mission and business models and lean operations in the coming years
  36. 36. what is your image of the future?
  37. 37. the future is not something that just happens to us the future is something we do
  38. 38. www.futurist.com glen@futurist.com twitter.com/glenhiemstra linkedin.com/glenhiemstra thank you for your time for more information

×