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Wednesday, March 26, 14
HOW MICRODATA CAN SAY A LOT
ABOUT MACROECONOMICS
David Soloff
Premise
Wednesday, March 26, 14
DAVID SOLOFF
@davidsoloff
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
“—no, a dreary, desolate and, indeed, quite
abject and distressing one; what we might
call, by way of eminence, the dismal...
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Mikro
Data
&
Makro
Economics
Wednesday, March 26, 14
"There's still a Cold War element to our statistics. We're kind
of in a holding pattern. In many situations I found myself...
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
January 2007
September 2007
February 2008
March 2008
April 2008
Mexico: “Tortilla Riots”
West Bengal: Riots over food shor...
Food prices and the incidence of violence in Africa [van Weezel 2013]
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Mar May Jul Sep Nov
0.940.960.981.001.021.04
China − CPI (Official)
Premise − Food Staples Index
Granger Causality: 0.94
C...
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
there are too many strata to measure everything
Wednesday, March 26, 14
“You need to focus on quality. You’ll be better off
with a small but carefully structured sample rather
than a large slopp...
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
@premisedata
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
Wednesday, March 26, 14
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Structure Data 2014: HOW MICRODATA CAN SAY A LOT ABOUT MACROECONOMICS, David Soloff

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Presentation from David Soloff, CEO and Co-Founder, Premise
#gigaomlive
More at http://events.gigaom.com/structuredata-2014/

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Structure Data 2014: HOW MICRODATA CAN SAY A LOT ABOUT MACROECONOMICS, David Soloff

  1. 1. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  2. 2. HOW MICRODATA CAN SAY A LOT ABOUT MACROECONOMICS David Soloff Premise Wednesday, March 26, 14
  3. 3. DAVID SOLOFF @davidsoloff Wednesday, March 26, 14
  4. 4. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  5. 5. “—no, a dreary, desolate and, indeed, quite abject and distressing one; what we might call, by way of eminence, the dismal science.” — Thomas Carlyle Wednesday, March 26, 14
  6. 6. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  7. 7. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  8. 8. Mikro Data & Makro Economics Wednesday, March 26, 14
  9. 9. "There's still a Cold War element to our statistics. We're kind of in a holding pattern. In many situations I found myself wishing we had more current data and broader data." — Alan Krueger http://on.wsj.com/1ggFq9c Wednesday, March 26, 14
  10. 10. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  11. 11. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  12. 12. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  13. 13. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  14. 14. January 2007 September 2007 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 Mexico: “Tortilla Riots” West Bengal: Riots over food shortages and public corruption Cameroon: High fuel and food prices Senegal: Protests over high cost of living Haiti: Riots over rising food prices Yemen: Riots as price of wheat doubles, rice + vegetables up 20% Egypt: Riots over the price of bread November 2008 China: Contaminated milk due to high cattle feed prices October 2007 Russia: Gov’t pressures food producers to freeze prices Wednesday, March 26, 14
  15. 15. Food prices and the incidence of violence in Africa [van Weezel 2013] Wednesday, March 26, 14
  16. 16. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  17. 17. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  18. 18. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  19. 19. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  20. 20. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  21. 21. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  22. 22. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  23. 23. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  24. 24. Mar May Jul Sep Nov 0.940.960.981.001.021.04 China − CPI (Official) Premise − Food Staples Index Granger Causality: 0.94 Correlation: 0.93 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 0.951.001.051.101.15 India − CPI (Official) Premise − Food Staples Index Granger Causality: 0.81 Correlation: 0.89 Wednesday, March 26, 14
  25. 25. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  26. 26. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  27. 27. there are too many strata to measure everything Wednesday, March 26, 14
  28. 28. “You need to focus on quality. You’ll be better off with a small but carefully structured sample rather than a large sloppy sample.” — Hal Varian Wednesday, March 26, 14
  29. 29. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  30. 30. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  31. 31. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  32. 32. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  33. 33. @premisedata Wednesday, March 26, 14
  34. 34. Wednesday, March 26, 14
  35. 35. Wednesday, March 26, 14

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